Financial Review

Mixed

…Markets mixed. Earnings season looks strong. Saudi’s tangled web. Musk is Boring. Just throwing out tax cuts. Food recall. GE and Siemen’s split Iraq. Food recall, Ford Ranger, tax cuts, Khashoggi, GE, Siemens, Iraq, Saudi, Mega Millions, 

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Financial Review

Until After the Fact

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-25-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-25-2016 DOW -208 = 15,885 SPX – 29 = 1877 NAS –  72 = 4518 10 Y – .03 =  2.02% OIL -2.36 = 19.83 GOLD + 11.90 = 1108.90   Stocks in Asia rallied overnight, with the Topix index in Tokyo increasing 1.3 percent, China’s Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.8 percent and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index adding 1.2 percent. Despite gaining in early trading, shares in Europe turned lower. US stocks were down all day, but the selling got worse into the close.   Oil gave up some of its recent gains after Saudi Arabia said it is keeping up investments in energy products and data from China showed that diesel consumption dropped for a fourth consecutive month. Also, Iraq’s oil ministry told Reuters that the country had record output in December, producing as much as 4.13 million barrels a day. A senior Iraqi oil official said separately the country may raise output even further this year. After posting a 21% gain in just 3 days last week, West Texas Intermediate closed down 7.3%.   Following the lifting of economic sanctions and the release of billions of dollars’ worth of frozen Iranian assets, Tehran is ready for business: The country just struck a provisional deal to buy eight A380 superjumbos, while an agreement for 100 more planes from Airbus and Boeing could be completed this week. Over the weekend, China and Iran also mapped out …

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Financial Review

No Expectations

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-16-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 100 = 17,131 SPX + 14 = 1998 NAS + 33 = 4552 10 YR YLD un = 2.59% OIL + 1.79 = 94.71 GOLD + 2.20 = 1235.90 SILV + .03 = 18.79 Tomorrow the Federal Reserve FOMC wraps up its meeting to determine monetary policy. Even before the Fed issues a statement, the financial press is dissecting every phrase and utterance of every Fed policymaker, and trying to impart conflated significance to every twitch of an eyebrow or overstuffed briefcase. It’s pretty simple really; not much has changed over the past couple of months; the Fed is on track to end the large scale asset purchases under QE; the Fed will raise rates at some point, unless something drastic changes; the nuances of language are inconsequential. There, I’ve just condensed about 100 articles into about 100 words, and you didn’t miss anything. You’re welcome. Today, China jumped on the QE bandwagon. The People’s Bank of China will print about 500 billion yuan, which works out to about $81 billion. They will hand out the money to the five largest banks in China. That money will eventually make its way into the financial markets. Considering the cost of printing 500 billion yuan…, US producer prices were flat in August. The Labor Department said falling gasoline and food prices restrained its producer price index for final demand last month. The …

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Financial Review

Timing is………..Everything

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-10-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 54 = 17, 068 SPX + 7 = 1995 NAS + 34 = 4586 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.53% OIL – 1.13 = 91.67 GOLD – 6.80 = 1250.00 SILV – .12 = 19.04 Later today, at 6PM local time or 9PM eastern, President Obama will address the nation and lay out his strategy to degrade and destroy the Islamic State insurgency operating in Iraq and Syria. This will likely involve significant escalation of the US military role in the area, but we aren’t sure about the intervention in Syria; probably a combination of airstrikes, and support for more moderate Syrian forces willing to carry out attacks on both ISIS and Assad; along with regional allies providing on the ground support. The president has pledged there will not be boots on the ground. He said: “This is not the equivalent of the Iraq war. What this is similar to is the kinds of counter-terrorism campaigns that we’ve been engaging in consistently over the last five, six, seven years.” Which sounds like a distinction without a difference. Earlier today an administration spokesman said: “The president will discuss how we are building a coalition of allies and partners in the region and in the broader international community to support our efforts, and will talk about how we work with the Congress as a partner in these efforts.” That doesn’t mean …

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Financial Review

The Good, the Bad, and the Depressing

DOW + 129 = 16,956 SPX + 13 = 1973 NAS + 50 = 4458 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.56% OIL – .13 = 105.24 GOLD – .80 = 1327.10 SILV + .02 = 21.08   Record high closes for the Dow and the S&P.   The record setting bull market run refuses to stumble. The S&P 500 has not seen a correction, a drop of 10%, for 1,002 days, and counting. This marks the fifth longest stretch without a correction since 1928. The average time between corrections is about 18 months; we’ve now gone 33 months without a 10% pullback.   The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index registered 55.3% in June, down slightly from May’s reading of 55.4%. Any number above 50% signals expansion. Separately, the research firm Markit said its final reading of US manufacturing conditions in June totaled 57.3, compared with a preliminary reading of 57.5; still the highest reading since May 2010. So the manufacturing sector has expanded for 13 consecutive months, but it wasn’t a month over month increase, and we have to remember that manufacturing was expanding in the first quarter as the broader economy was contracting by 2.9%. Today’s reports were decent news for manufacturing, but hardly great.   The Commerce Department reports construction spending increased 0.1% in May, following a 0.8% increase in April. Construction activity totaled $958 billion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in May, up 6.6% from a year ago. Single-family home construction was …

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Financial Review

Tuesday, July 01, 2014 – The Good, the Bad, and the Depressing

The Good, the Bad, and the Depressing by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 129 = 16,956 SPX + 13 = 1973 NAS + 50 = 4458 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.56% OIL – .13 = 105.24 GOLD – .80 = 1327.10 SILV + .02 = 21.08   Record high closes for the Dow and the S&P.   The record setting bull market run refuses to stumble. The S&P 500 has not seen a correction, a drop of 10%, for 1,002 days, and counting. This marks the fifth longest stretch without a correction since 1928. The average time between corrections is about 18 months; we’ve now gone 33 months without a 10% pullback.   The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index registered 55.3% in June, down slightly from May’s reading of 55.4%. Any number above 50% signals expansion. Separately, the research firm Markit said its final reading of US manufacturing conditions in June totaled 57.3, compared with a preliminary reading of 57.5; still the highest reading since May 2010. So the manufacturing sector has expanded for 13 consecutive months, but it wasn’t a month over month increase, and we have to remember that manufacturing was expanding in the first quarter as the broader economy was contracting by 2.9%. Today’s reports were decent news for manufacturing, but hardly great.   The Commerce Department reports construction spending increased 0.1% in May, following a 0.8% increase in April. Construction activity totaled $958 billion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in …

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Financial Review

Friday, June 27, 2014 – Biscuits on the Table

Biscuits on the Table by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 5 = 16,851 SPX + 3 = 1960 NAS + 18 = 4397 10 YR YLD  + .01 = 2.53% OIL – .10 = 105.74 GOLD – 1.80 = 1316.10 SILV – .25 = 20.97   The major stock indices traded lower for most of the day, and only in the final minutes turned to positive territory. For the week, the Dow slipped 0.6 percent and the S&P 500 declined 0.1 percent, while the Nasdaq gained 0.7 percent. Volume spike today as the Russell Indices were reconstituted.   The Russell Indices are compiled by Russell Investments. The Russell 3000 is an index of the 3000 largest stocks in the US. The Russell 2000 is the 2000 smallest stocks in the Russell 3000. Once a year, the Russell indices are reconstituted, to reflect changes such as acquisitions, bankruptcies, or just changes in the size of the companies listed in the index. The reconstitution probably explains the increase in volume and the last minute increase in prices today.   Some things we need to know heading into the weekend; including Ukraine, Iraq, and Argentina. We’ll start with the situation in Ukraine. The European Union signed a free-trade pact with Ukraine today and warned it could impose more sanctions on Moscow unless pro-Russian rebels act to wind down the crisis in the east of the country by Monday. Georgia and Moldova signed similar deals, holding out the prospect of deep economic integration and …

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Financial Review

Wednesday, June 18, 2014 – Forecasts Are Subject to Change

Forecasts Are Subject to Change by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 98 = 16,906 SPX + 14 = 1956 NAS + 25 = 4362 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.61% OIL – .15 = 105.72 GOLD + 5.80 = 1278.50 SILV + .14 = 20.00   The Federal Reserve FOMC meeting wrapped up today. The Fed issued a statement that was almost a carbon copy of the April statement. The Fed said that growth “has rebounded in recent months” and the labor market indicators “generally showed further improvement.” The central bankers noted that business fixed investment had “resumed its advance” after saying that it “edged down” in April. The only negative comment was that the housing sector “remained slow.”   The Fed will hold interest rates steady for now, and probably well into next year; and they will continue to cut back on their large scale asset purchase program by another $10 billion per month. So, starting in July, the Fed will only buy $35 billion in Treasuries and mortgage backed securities.   The Fed statement was generally upbeat: “Economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will continue to improve gradually. Household spending appears to be rising moderately and business fixed investment resumed its advance.”   Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen held a press conference and the topic of inflation was brought up. The feeling is that the Fed wants to see solid signs of recovery, and inflation isn’t a concern; those inflation numbers are …

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Financial Review

Tuesday, June 17, 2014 – What Could Go Wrong?

What Could Go Wrong? by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 27 = 16,808 SPX + 4 = 1941 NAS + 16 = 4337 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.65% OIL – .30 = 106.60 GOLD un = 1272.70 SILV + .09 = 19.86 The FOMC, the Federal Open Market Committee started two days of meetings today; tomorrow they are expected to announce more of the same. The FOMC is largely expected to taper its asset purchase program by $10 billion to $35 billion. Effective July 1, the Fed is expected to lower its asset purchases to $15 billion in agency mortgage backed securities (MBS) and $20 billion in Treasuries. The Fed is also expected to maintain its current forward guidance language on federal funds rate support; in other words, they will keep telling us that rates might increase sometime next year.   The committee is likely to make some upgrades to its description of the economic outlook in its economic projections. The committee will probably need to reduce its 2014 real GDP growth forecast to take into account the Q1 disappointment, and we can probably expect the committee to reduce its unemployment rate forecast and lift its inflation forecast slightly.   The consumer-price index climbed a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in May from a month earlier. It marked the fastest increase since February 2013 and doubled the pace of economists’ forecasts. Excluding food and energy components, so-called core prices increased 0.3%, the fastest pace since August 2011. From a year …

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Financial Review

Friday, June 13, 2014, – Infallible Source Predicts Economic Collapse!

Infallible Source Predicts Economic Collapse! by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 41 = 16,775 SPX + 6 = 1936 NAS + 13 = 4310 10 YRYLD + .02 = 2.60% OIL + .38 = 106.91 GOLD + 2.80 = 1276.90 SILV + .15 = 19.77   For the week, the Dow was down 0.9%, the S&P fell 0.7 percent and the Nasdaq was down 0.25%. The week’s decline was the first after three weeks of consecutive gains on the S&P 500. For the year, the broad market index is up about 4.8%. So, it was a rough week, but a good Friday the 13th. The Producer Price Index measures prices at the wholesale level; the PPI was down 0.2% in May. The decline was driven lower by cheaper food and gas, and follows two months of strong gains. In the past 12 months, producer prices have risen 2%, matching the Federal Reserve’s inflation target. That’s down from an annual gain of 2.1% in April. Excluding the volatile food, energy and profit margin categories, (for all you people who don’t eat food or drive in cars) core producer prices were unchanged in May. Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, has been mostly below 2% for the past two years.   Of course, that might change, at least for people who eat and drive cars. The price of oil has jumped the past few days, now standing at $106.91 a barrel, mainly on fears of a civil war in Iraq. …

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Financial Review

Wednesday, June 11, 2014 – Nowhere to Hide

Nowhere to Hide by Sinclair Noe DOW – 102 = 16,843 SPX – 6 = 1943 NAS – 6 = 4331 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.64% OIL + .14 = 104.49 GOLD + .70 = 1261.60 SILV un = 19.30 The US posted a $130 billion budget deficit in May and the smallest shortfall for the first eight months of a fiscal year since 2008. The deficit last month was about $9 billion less than May of last year. For the fiscal year, which began Oct. 1, the government is running a budget deficit 30% smaller than it was a year earlier; or about $436 billion compared with $626 billion. Revenues for that period are 7% higher than a year earlier and outlays are 2% lower.   The Congressional Budget Office in April projected that the federal deficit will decline to $492 billion this fiscal year, the smallest in six years; down from $680 billion in 2013 and down from a record $1.4 trillion in January 2009. The CBO estimates that next year, the shortfall will decline further, to $469 billion. The 2014 deficit will be 2.8% of gross domestic product, compared with 4.1% of GDP in 2013.   The World Bank has cut its global growth forecast, predicting the world economy will grow 2.8% this year, below its previous forecast of 3.2% made in January. In its twice-yearly Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank said tensions between Ukraine and Russia hit confidence worldwide.   The bank …

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Uncategorized

Monday, April 01, 2013 – April Comes in Like a Lamb

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click hereor call 480-820-5877. This year’s conference features Roger Weigand, Nathan Liles, David Smith, Mark Liebovit, Arch Crawford, Ian McAvity, Bill Tatro, and I will speak on Friday. There is an expanded Q&A session with all speakers on Saturday. I hope you can attend. April Comes in Like a Lamb by Sinclair Noe DOW – 5 = 14,572SPX – 7 = 1562NAS – 28 = 3239 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.84%OIL – .25 = 97.39GOLD + 1.80 = 1600.40SILV – .28 = 28.12 This week’s economic special is the March jobs report on Friday morning. Another 200,000 or so gain in hiring would lend further support to the idea that the economy is gaining traction despite fiscal cliffs and sequesters, higher taxes and gasoline prices, a still-soft global economy and divided government in Washington . The jobs picture has shown steady improvement over the past 3 years, steady but also lackluster; and while that’s better than massive losses, it still isn’t enough to lift the economy. Job gains have come in fits and starts followed by long lazy naps. The March jobs report should show us the first effects of the sequester. Government has cut more than 800,000 jobs since 2008 while the private sector has added over 5 million jobs. Many of the cuts from the sequester will be furloughs, which mean …

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