Financial Review

Pick a Lane

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-17-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-17-2015 DOW + 6 = 17,489 SPX – 2 = 2050 NAS + 1 = 4986 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.26% OIL – .95 = 40.79 GOLD – 12.30 = 1070.80 SILV – .06 = 14.29   Global equity markets moved higher today, following the rally yesterday on Wall Street and brushed off concerns related to Friday’s terror attacks in Paris. In their final communique from a summit in Turkey, the leaders of the world’s largest economies stuck to a goal of lifting their collective output by an extra 2% by 2018, even though growth remains uneven and weaker than expected globally. G20 leaders also endorsed plans to address Syria’s refugee crisis, taxation, climate change, cyber security and inequality.   France launched another set of airstrikes on the ISIS stronghold of Raqqa in Syria early Tuesday as the country steps up its response to last week’s deadly attacks. The bombings follow a second night of home searches in France and Belgium to catch those responsible and linked to the killings. President Francois Hollande is now looking to expand his powers under France’s state-of-emergency statute and has called on the U.S. and Russia to form a “big unified coalition” to destroy ISIS.   Meanwhile, Russian officials said they had found evidence that the passenger jet that crashed in Egypt last month was downed by a bomb, the first time …

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Financial Review

Times Change

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-30-2015   DOW + 235 = 16,284 SPX + 35 = 1920 NAS + 102 = 4620 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.06% OIL – .14 = 45.09 GOLD – 12.40 = 1116.30 SILV – .13 = 14.62   This is the last trading day of the third quarter. China’s main stock market posted its worst quarter since 2008 and its smaller Shenzhen index, posted its worst quarter in at least two decades. Markets in Singapore and Indonesia are set to post their worst quarters since the financial crisis. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index fell 19.1% from the beginning of the quarter. The Nikkei closed out its worst quarter since 2010 and the ASX its worst since 2011.   European stocks moved higher today, but not enough to recover from the worst quarter in 4 years. The Stoxx Europe 600 index is down about 9.5% for the quarter. Germany’s DAX index down 12% for the quarter. France’s CAC index posted a quarterly loss of 7.3%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 down 7.7%. The Eurozone is back in deflation. Consumer prices slipped 0.1% year-over-year in September.   The major U.S. averages had a rough third quarter. Concerns about spillover from slowdown in China and the timing of a Federal Reserve rate hike sent markets into correction territory, or more than 10 percent below their 52-week highs, in late August. …

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Financial Review

Goodnight and Good Luck

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-11-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe   DOW – 6 = 17,862 SPX – .06 = 2068 NAS + 13 = 4801 10 YR YLD un = 1.98% OIL – .75 = 49.27 President Obama has asked Congress for formal authorization to fight the Islamic State that would prohibit the use of “enduring offensive ground forces” and limit engagement to three years. The proposed resolution says Islamic State “has committed despicable acts of violence and mass execution.” Its militants have killed thousands of civilians while seizing territory in Iraq and Syria in an attempt to establish a hub of jihadism in the heart of the Arab world. Don’t expect a quick vote by Congress, maybe something in March, maybe just more talk.   We keep hearing that ISIS is growing, and one way they recruit jihadists to their cause is through slick websites and social media. So, you might be wondering why the government doesn’t just close down those sites. I don’t know, but today, the hacktivist group Anonymous has launched a massive cyber-attack against ISIS. A list of more than hundred Twitter and Facebook accounts suspected to belong to Islamic militants has been released by Anonymous. Twitter has already suspended more than 1500 ISIS accounts since the group released the first list in June, 2014 and dozens of militant recruiting websites were knocked offline using collective DDoS Attack. Thousands of Twitter accounts associated with ISIS are still active and spreading jihadist propaganda, but …

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Financial Review

Finally, Holograms

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-21-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 39 = 17,554 SPX + 9 = 2032 NAS + 12 = 4667 10 YR YLD + .05 = 1.85% OIL + .93 = 47.40 GOLD – 1.30 = 1293.90 SILV + .14 = 18.21 Gold moved above $1300 an ounce today. When was the last time you saw that? Last August. For the past 3 years, gold has been shellacked, but it is now testing an important level of resistance, and it coincides with the European Central Bank’s anticipated Quantitative Easing plan, which should be revealed on Thursday. Today we learned that an ECB executive board has called for bond purchases of roughly €50 billion per month over the next 12 months. The final number and details could change after the full board weighs in on the plan on Thursday. And the devil will be in details, and one of the most important is whether the ECB will let Greece play in their QE games. The Bank of Japan held off expanding its stimulus program today, even as they cut their core inflation forecast to 1% from 1.7%. Two Bank of England policy makers dropped calls for higher interest rates. Elsewhere, the battle against inflation intensified as the Bank of Canada unexpectedly cut interest rates for the first time since 2009, saying the oil price shock will drag down inflation. The Bank of Canada is lowering …

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Financial Review

Strange Days Indeed

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-02-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 3 = 16,801 SPX + 0.01 = 1946 NAS + 8 = 4430 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.43% OIL + .59 = 91.32 GOLD + 1.30 = 1215.30 SILV – .08 = 17.20 The Dow Industrial dropped about 130 points in early trading, but then recovered, mainly In economic news: The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 287,000. Separate data showed small businesses hiring workers at the fastest pace in 8 months. The National Federation of Independent Business said its monthly survey of its members found they added an average of 0.24 workers per firm last month, on a seasonally adjusted basis. Tomorrow the government will report on non-farm payrolls for September; we’re looking for about 220,000 net new jobs and the unemployment rate to hold near 6.1%. A report from the Commerce Department showed new orders for factory goods posted their biggest decline on record in August. Factory orders dropped 10.1%, following a 10.5% increase in July; the wild swings are attributed to orders for airplanes. Stripping out transportation orders, new orders were down a more modest 0.1%. Since June, the European Central Bank has lowered the interest rate on bank deposits parked at the ECB to negative territory, a first for this central bank, and added new lending and private-asset purchase programs. Today, the …

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Financial Review

The Failure of the Holder Doctrine

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-25-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 264 = 16,945 SPX – 32 = 1965 NAS – 88 = 4466 10 YR YLD – .06 = 2.51% OIL – .32 = 91.21 GOLD + 5.30 = 1222.90 SILV – .18 = 17.60 In economic news: For the week ending Sept. 20, seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment compensation were 293,000, up 12,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 281,000. For the comparable week of 2013, the figure was 316,000. Orders for durable goods dropped 18.2% in August; which sounds absolutely horrible until you put in in perspective; durable goods orders were up 22.5% in July. It sounds like the economists behind this report need to step away from the crack pipe, but the real reason for the volatility is airplane orders, which are for big expensive durable goods, and usually in big, expensive contracts. For example, Boeing took orders for 107 new planes in August, but that’s down from 324 orders in July. Stripping out the transportation sector, order rose 0.7%. Orders for core capital goods – a broader measure of business investment – climbed by 0.6% in August. Tomorrow the government will reveal the third of three regular estimates of growth in the period of April to June. The gain in GDP is likely to be raised to 4.7% from a prior estimate of 4.2%, mainly because fresh data show that consumers spent much more …

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Financial Review

War, Pay Phones, Small Business and Big Banks

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-24-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 154 = 17,210 SPX + 15 = 1998 NAS + 46 = 4555 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.57% OIL + 1.18 = 92.80 GOLD – 6.30 = 1217.60 SILV – .11 = 17.78 President Obama addressed the United Nations General Assembly today. He condemned ISIS, and said there was no reasoning and no negotiation with their brand of evil. He said the US “will work with a broad coalition to dismantle this network of death”; that coalition is now up to 40 countries. He urged Muslims to reject the ideology of ISIS and al-Qaeda. He also announced a US warplanes hit ISIS vehicles and arms dumps in new air strikes in Iraq and Syria. ISIS continues to advance in Syria and aid agencies report some 130,000 Kurdish refugees have crossed into Turkey in the past few days. An Algerian jihadist group linked to ISIS has released a video which it says shows militants beheading a French tourist. The president’s speech also criticized Russia for the recent invasion of Ukraine. Today, NATO reports Russia has withdrawn a sizable number of its troops from eastern Ukraine, although some remain. Russian backed rebels in the region said they had begun pulling back their heavy artillery after Ukrainian troops did the same. For now, the cease fire appears to be holding. The stock market recovered after three days of losses; for the …

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Financial Review

War, Inversions, and Climate

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-23-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 116 = 17,055 SPX – 11 = 1982 NA – 19 = 4508 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.53% OIL + .06 = 91.62 GOLD + 8.10 = 1223.90 SILV + .05 = 17.88 First up: war. You’ve probably heard by now that the US launched several airstrikes against ISIS targets inside Syria and, separately, in potentially averting an imminent threat to the homeland from an al Qaeda group called Khorasan. Many of the targets were in and around Raqqa, Syria, believed to be an ISIS stronghold. Several Arab nations took part in the US-led operation: Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. A spokesman for the Pentagon said they are still assessing the effectiveness of the bombing campaign but the Pentagon believes they were “successful in hitting what we were aiming at.” The airstrikes against Khorasan was in response to threats, however officials so far have provided no details about the terrorists’ planned attack or the credibility of the intelligence they had on it. A Pentagon spokesman said “the individuals plotting and planning it were eliminated.” The Syrian government says the US told it of plans to carry out airstrikes. The State Department immediately denied that it gave prior notification. Reuters reports Iranian officials were informed of the airstrikes in advance, but not specific targets. Meanwhile, the Israeli military said that it had shot down …

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Financial Review

Incredibly Orwellian Record High

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-17-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 24 = 17,156 SPX + 2 = 2001 NAS + 9 = 4562 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.60% OIL – .90 = 93.98 GOLD – 11.70 = 1224.20 SILV – .16 = 18.62 The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high of 17,156.85; the first record high for the Dow since July. The Dow set an all-time intraday high of 17,221.11. It was the sixteenth record close for the blue chip index in 2014. The stock market action today was focused on the Federal Reserve. I suppose we could say the same thing about the past 6 years. Today, the Federal Reserve wrapped up its FOMC meeting. The FOMC stands for Federal Open Market Committee, which sounds incredibly Orwellian. The meeting was a rousing success; we know this because the media coverage can’t quite figure out whether the Fed will raise interest rates sooner or later, or whether the economy is weaker or stronger. While the much analyzed phrase “considerable time” remained in the FOMC statement, the newly announced scheme for interest rate normalization shows that higher rates are in the cards. The FOMC also said labor market conditions improved but a significant amount of slack remains. The Fed said it would end the bond-buying program known as quantitative easing in October. The Fed will purchase $15 billion of mortgage and Treasury bonds in October and …

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Financial Review

No Expectations

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-16-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 100 = 17,131 SPX + 14 = 1998 NAS + 33 = 4552 10 YR YLD un = 2.59% OIL + 1.79 = 94.71 GOLD + 2.20 = 1235.90 SILV + .03 = 18.79 Tomorrow the Federal Reserve FOMC wraps up its meeting to determine monetary policy. Even before the Fed issues a statement, the financial press is dissecting every phrase and utterance of every Fed policymaker, and trying to impart conflated significance to every twitch of an eyebrow or overstuffed briefcase. It’s pretty simple really; not much has changed over the past couple of months; the Fed is on track to end the large scale asset purchases under QE; the Fed will raise rates at some point, unless something drastic changes; the nuances of language are inconsequential. There, I’ve just condensed about 100 articles into about 100 words, and you didn’t miss anything. You’re welcome. Today, China jumped on the QE bandwagon. The People’s Bank of China will print about 500 billion yuan, which works out to about $81 billion. They will hand out the money to the five largest banks in China. That money will eventually make its way into the financial markets. Considering the cost of printing 500 billion yuan…, US producer prices were flat in August. The Labor Department said falling gasoline and food prices restrained its producer price index for final demand last month. The …

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Financial Review

We Have Met the Enemy

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_09-11-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 19 = 17,049 SPX + 1 = 1997 NAS + 5 = 4591 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.53% OIL + 1.38 = 93.05 GOLD – 8.80 = 1241.20 SILV – .27 = 18.77 I’m fairly certain that at some point during this day you have taken at least a moment to recall where you were 13 years ago, how you heard the news, how you responded to the news. Maybe you can recollect specifics or maybe some of the memories have faded in time. What you knew exactly 13 years ago is probably quite different than what you know today. Last night I watched the president announce another war; this one will be different than the last one; so we are told. The plan is to expand the airstrikes against ISIS and take the fight to their base in Syria. It is no longer just about protecting American embassies and limited humanitarian efforts. The new plan is open-ended, and will likely be long-term. We won’t have combat troops on the ground, but we will have troops in Iraq; about 1600 US troops; I’m fairly certain they are capable of combat if pushed. Boots on the ground combat will come from Iraqi forces and Syrian rebels, apparently. House Speaker John Boehner says the country should unite behind the administration, even if we don’t know all the details of the …

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Financial Review

Timing is………..Everything

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-10-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 54 = 17, 068 SPX + 7 = 1995 NAS + 34 = 4586 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.53% OIL – 1.13 = 91.67 GOLD – 6.80 = 1250.00 SILV – .12 = 19.04 Later today, at 6PM local time or 9PM eastern, President Obama will address the nation and lay out his strategy to degrade and destroy the Islamic State insurgency operating in Iraq and Syria. This will likely involve significant escalation of the US military role in the area, but we aren’t sure about the intervention in Syria; probably a combination of airstrikes, and support for more moderate Syrian forces willing to carry out attacks on both ISIS and Assad; along with regional allies providing on the ground support. The president has pledged there will not be boots on the ground. He said: “This is not the equivalent of the Iraq war. What this is similar to is the kinds of counter-terrorism campaigns that we’ve been engaging in consistently over the last five, six, seven years.” Which sounds like a distinction without a difference. Earlier today an administration spokesman said: “The president will discuss how we are building a coalition of allies and partners in the region and in the broader international community to support our efforts, and will talk about how we work with the Congress as a partner in these efforts.” That doesn’t mean …

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Financial Review

Another Glass of Kool-Aid

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-03-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 10  = 17,078 SPX – 1 =  2000 NAS – 25 = 4572 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.41% OIL – .36 = 95.18 GOLD + 3.50 = 1270.30 SILV + .02 = 19.27   The Commerce Department reports orders for goods produced in US factories rose 10.5% higher in July, mainly due to a big surge in contracts for commercial aircraft. Yet excluding transportation goods, factory orders fell 0.8% in July.   Meanwhile, auto sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 17.5 million in August, up from 16.5 million in July. Recalls finally caught up with General Motors and sales declined 1%; Chrysler sales were up 20%; Ford sales were up less than 1%; VW slipped 13%; Nissan sales were up 12%; and Toyota gained 6%.   Tesla is expected to announce tomorrow that it has selected Nevada to be the home of its gigafactory, which will build batteries. Arizona, California, New Mexico, and Texas were also in the running for the $5 billion plant, a key part of Tesla’s plan to scale up its production and launch a mass-market car in the next couple of years. The factory is expected to employ more than 6,000 people.   The Federal Reserve gathers information from its districts two weeks before they get together for the FOMC policy meetings. They publish the information in a beige folder, and …

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Financial Review

Be Careful Out There

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1_2-08-22-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 20:28 — 9.4MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS08222014 LISTEN HERE DOW – 38 = 17,001 SPX – 3 = 1988 NAS + 6 = 4538 10 YR YLD un = 2.40% OIL – .46 = 93.50 GOLD + 4.30 = 1281.60 SILV un = 19.51 All three major indices posted gains for the week, with the Dow up 2%, the S&P up 1.7% and the Nasdaq up 1.6%. It was the strongest week of gains for both the Dow and the S&P since April, and the third straight week of gains for all three indices. There is a lot to cover before we can wrap up the week. First we go to Jackson Hole Wyoming, where the Fed has been having a friendly get together of economists. Janet Yellen kicked off the event with a speech this morning. She said what you might expect: “There is no simple recipe for appropriate policy,” and she called for a “pragmatic” approach that gives officials room to evaluate data as it arrives without committing to a preset policy path. And she backed up her comments with a new tool, the Labor Market Conditions Index, which measures 19 labor market indicators, and it isn’t new data, just combining it all together, but it showed she is monitoring the data. Yellen referenced the possibility that labor markets may be a bit tighter than they seem and that the Fed may consider having to raise interest rates …

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Financial Review

Wednesday, June 18, 2014 – Forecasts Are Subject to Change

Forecasts Are Subject to Change by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 98 = 16,906 SPX + 14 = 1956 NAS + 25 = 4362 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.61% OIL – .15 = 105.72 GOLD + 5.80 = 1278.50 SILV + .14 = 20.00   The Federal Reserve FOMC meeting wrapped up today. The Fed issued a statement that was almost a carbon copy of the April statement. The Fed said that growth “has rebounded in recent months” and the labor market indicators “generally showed further improvement.” The central bankers noted that business fixed investment had “resumed its advance” after saying that it “edged down” in April. The only negative comment was that the housing sector “remained slow.”   The Fed will hold interest rates steady for now, and probably well into next year; and they will continue to cut back on their large scale asset purchase program by another $10 billion per month. So, starting in July, the Fed will only buy $35 billion in Treasuries and mortgage backed securities.   The Fed statement was generally upbeat: “Economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will continue to improve gradually. Household spending appears to be rising moderately and business fixed investment resumed its advance.”   Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen held a press conference and the topic of inflation was brought up. The feeling is that the Fed wants to see solid signs of recovery, and inflation isn’t a concern; those inflation numbers are …

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Financial Review

Tuesday, June 17, 2014 – What Could Go Wrong?

What Could Go Wrong? by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 27 = 16,808 SPX + 4 = 1941 NAS + 16 = 4337 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.65% OIL – .30 = 106.60 GOLD un = 1272.70 SILV + .09 = 19.86 The FOMC, the Federal Open Market Committee started two days of meetings today; tomorrow they are expected to announce more of the same. The FOMC is largely expected to taper its asset purchase program by $10 billion to $35 billion. Effective July 1, the Fed is expected to lower its asset purchases to $15 billion in agency mortgage backed securities (MBS) and $20 billion in Treasuries. The Fed is also expected to maintain its current forward guidance language on federal funds rate support; in other words, they will keep telling us that rates might increase sometime next year.   The committee is likely to make some upgrades to its description of the economic outlook in its economic projections. The committee will probably need to reduce its 2014 real GDP growth forecast to take into account the Q1 disappointment, and we can probably expect the committee to reduce its unemployment rate forecast and lift its inflation forecast slightly.   The consumer-price index climbed a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in May from a month earlier. It marked the fastest increase since February 2013 and doubled the pace of economists’ forecasts. Excluding food and energy components, so-called core prices increased 0.3%, the fastest pace since August 2011. From a year …

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Financial Review

Friday, June 13, 2014, – Infallible Source Predicts Economic Collapse!

Infallible Source Predicts Economic Collapse! by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 41 = 16,775 SPX + 6 = 1936 NAS + 13 = 4310 10 YRYLD + .02 = 2.60% OIL + .38 = 106.91 GOLD + 2.80 = 1276.90 SILV + .15 = 19.77   For the week, the Dow was down 0.9%, the S&P fell 0.7 percent and the Nasdaq was down 0.25%. The week’s decline was the first after three weeks of consecutive gains on the S&P 500. For the year, the broad market index is up about 4.8%. So, it was a rough week, but a good Friday the 13th. The Producer Price Index measures prices at the wholesale level; the PPI was down 0.2% in May. The decline was driven lower by cheaper food and gas, and follows two months of strong gains. In the past 12 months, producer prices have risen 2%, matching the Federal Reserve’s inflation target. That’s down from an annual gain of 2.1% in April. Excluding the volatile food, energy and profit margin categories, (for all you people who don’t eat food or drive in cars) core producer prices were unchanged in May. Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, has been mostly below 2% for the past two years.   Of course, that might change, at least for people who eat and drive cars. The price of oil has jumped the past few days, now standing at $106.91 a barrel, mainly on fears of a civil war in Iraq. …

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