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Monday, April 29, 2013 – A Busy Week Heading in the Same Direction

A Busy Week Heading in the Same Direction by Sinclair Noe DOW + 106 = 14,818SPX + 11 = 1593NAS + 27 = 330710 YR YLD + .01 = 1.67%OIL + .58 = 93.58GOLD + 13.60 = 1477.50SILV + .55 = 24.69  The S&P 500 index ended at an all-time high. We have a celebration when the Dow Industrial Average closes at an all time high; no party for the S&P 500. I wish I could give you a valid reason for this but it defies logic. There is no law that says you can’t enjoy milk and cookies anyway. This week offers a packed economic calendar,with ISM manufacturing data Wednesday, and PMI manufacturing reports for the euro zone and China on Thursday. The week ends with Friday’s U.S. employment report, expected to show 150,000 new nonfarm payrolls in April; and the backdrop to all the information is last Friday’s initial report on first quarter GDP, which came in at 2.5%, short of the consensus forecast of 3%.  Also, we’ll compare and contrast this week’s news with last week’s reports out of Europe showing economic weakness in Germany as well really bad weakness in the peripheral countires where unemployment is rising from one awful record to another. In Spain, for example, the rate increased to 27.2%, with an even more stunning 57.2% rate among the young. In Greece, the unemployment rate tops 27% and the government is cutting thousands more jobs to qualify for more ECB bailout money. The European …

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Monday, April 01, 2013 – April Comes in Like a Lamb

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click hereor call 480-820-5877. This year’s conference features Roger Weigand, Nathan Liles, David Smith, Mark Liebovit, Arch Crawford, Ian McAvity, Bill Tatro, and I will speak on Friday. There is an expanded Q&A session with all speakers on Saturday. I hope you can attend. April Comes in Like a Lamb by Sinclair Noe DOW – 5 = 14,572SPX – 7 = 1562NAS – 28 = 3239 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.84%OIL – .25 = 97.39GOLD + 1.80 = 1600.40SILV – .28 = 28.12 This week’s economic special is the March jobs report on Friday morning. Another 200,000 or so gain in hiring would lend further support to the idea that the economy is gaining traction despite fiscal cliffs and sequesters, higher taxes and gasoline prices, a still-soft global economy and divided government in Washington . The jobs picture has shown steady improvement over the past 3 years, steady but also lackluster; and while that’s better than massive losses, it still isn’t enough to lift the economy. Job gains have come in fits and starts followed by long lazy naps. The March jobs report should show us the first effects of the sequester. Government has cut more than 800,000 jobs since 2008 while the private sector has added over 5 million jobs. Many of the cuts from the sequester will be furloughs, which mean …

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Friday, February 01, 2013 – Jobs Report Friday

Jobs Report Friday by Sinclair Noe DOW + 149 = 14,009SPX + 15 = 1513NAS + 36 = 317910 YR YLD + .02 = 2.01%OIL + .12 = 97.61 GOLD + 3.80 = 1668.60SILV + .37 = 31.94 Today is a Jobs Report Friday. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 157,000 in January, and the unemployment rate inched higher to 7.9%. The headline number was below expectations, which had been running from 170,000 to 185,000 new jobs. However, employment figures for November and December were revised up sharply. November was revised from 161,000 to 247,000, a gain of 86,000; so it turns out that job growth immediately before the election was actually under-estimated; December was revised from 155,000 to 196,000, a gain of 41,000. In January, job gains occurred in retail trade, construction, health care, and wholesale trade, while employment edged down in transportation and warehousing. Exactly what this pace of job growth means for the unemployment rate depends on whether many of the workers sitting on the sidelines decide to join, or rejoin, or can find a place in the labor force. Right now, labor force participation rates, the share of people of working age who are either working or looking for jobs, is hovering around 30-year lows. Only those who are actively looking for work are counted as unemployed, so if the labor force participation stays low, even modest job growth can cause the unemployment rate to fall quite a bit. The decline in the labor force participation …

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Wednesday, December 5, 2012 – I Have Copyrighted the Term “Fiscal Cliff”. Pay Up!

I Have Copyrighted the Term “Fiscal Cliff”. Pay Up! by Sinclair Noe DOW + 82 = 13,034SPX + 2 = 1409NAS – 22 = 297310 YR YLD – .02 = 1.59%OIL – .62 = 87.88GOLD – 2.50 = 1695.30 SILV unch = 33.01 Let’s take a look at the economic news. The ISM services index moved up to 54.7% in November from 54.2% in October; indicating expansion in the services side of the economy. Earlier this week, the ISM said its manufacturing index fell back into negative territory for the fourth time in six months. Third quarter productivity rose a revised 2.9%, the fastest rate in two years, compared to a first reading of 1.9%. Workers produced goods and services more efficiently than the first estimate suggested. This is an important number because it gives the Federal Reserve some wiggle room to continue to pump money into the Mortgage backed securities market, without the fear of inflation. It also means businesses are squeezing more output out of each worker, and so it reflects a reluctance to hire or raise wages. Payroll processor ADP says employers added 118,000 jobs last month. That’s below October’s total of 157,000, which was revised lower; mostly because Hurricane Sandy shut down factories, retail stores, and other companies. The ADP report might provide clues about the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report due on Friday. That report is expected to show the unemployment rate climbing to 8% from 7.9%. There is little sign yet that business concerns over potential …

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Monday, December 3, 2012 – Still in the Woods and Other Economic News

Still in the Woods and Other Economic News by Sinclair Noe DOW – 59 = 12,965SPX – 6 = 1409NAS – 8 = 300210 YR YLD + .02 = 1.63%OIL +.01 = 88.92GOLD + .80 = 1717.00SILV + .22 = 33.76 Let’s start with the economic news. Business among manufacturers contracted in November and fell to the lowest level in more than three years. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of purchasing managers dropped to 49.5% from 51.7% in October. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector. The decline in the overall ISM index largely reflected a steep drop in new orders but companies remained active fulfilling prior orders. Only six of the 18 U.S. manufacturing industries surveyed by ISM said they expanded somewhat faster in November. Nearly twice as many said their industries contracted. In the euro zone, manufacturers contracted for the 16th straight month, according to Markit. China’s manufacturing sector expanded slightly. In a separate report, the Commerce Department said spending on construction projects advanced 1.4% in October to the highest level since September 2009. The big economic news will come on Friday with the monthly jobs report. The best guess is that the economy added about 75,000 jobs in November, but that is just a guess; Hurricane Sandy has distorted some of the economic numbers. The fourth quarter of 2012 has clearly gotten off to a slow start. Consumer spending, by far the biggest source of economic growth, fell in October for the first …

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Monday, October 1, 2012 – Ghosts in the Machine

Ghosts in the Machine by Sinclair Noe DOW + 77 = 13,515SPX + 3 = 1444NAS – 2 = 311310 YR YLD – .01 = 1.62%OIL – .02 = 92.46GOLD + 4.10 = 1776.20SILV +.16 = 34.75PLAT + 16.00 = 1685.00 You can watch the Presidential Debate this Wednesday but if you’re looking for clues about who will live at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue over the next four years, the thing to watch is the Non-Farm Payroll Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday morning. It’s all about jobs. In August, the report show the economy added 96,000 jobs. The September report needs to show that the economy added even more; it needs to show we’re moving in the right direction, not slipping back. The unemployment rate is currently at 8.1%. That’s a lousy number but at least it has been heading in the right direction. Of course, a major reason the unemployment rate has been falling is because people have dropped out of the workforce; they are no longer actively looking for a job and so they no longer get counted; that’s been the methodology for quite some time now; these are people who are not working but they aren’t considered unemployed. They have become ghosts in the machine. Now, there is a big difference between the 800,000 jobs lost in the last month of the Bush administration and the 96,000 jobs gained last month under the Obama administration, but the reality is that 96k jobs is just …

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Thursday, September 6, 2012 – Free Money With Strings Attached

Free Money With Strings Attached -by Sinclair Noe DOW + 244 = 13,292SPX + 28 = 1432NAS + 66 = 313510 YR YLD +.08 = 1.67%OIL – .67 = 95.82GOLD + 7.90 = 1702.30SILV +.44 = 32.81PLAT + 10.00 = 1589.00 Pop Quiz. Q: What does Wall Street love? A: Free money. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index jumped 2 percent by the close to its highest level since January 2008. The Dow Jones industrial average added about 244 points, or 1.9 percent. And the Nasdaq composite index gained 2.2 percent for its highest close since 2000. In Europe, stock market indexes closed with gains of more than 2 percent, with Spanish and Italian stocks up more than 4 percent. The DAX in Frankfurt added 2.9 percent. The FTSE 100 in London gained 2.1 percent. Today, the European Central Bank announced they will launch a new and potentially unlimited bond buying program to lower borrowing costs for countries struggling with debt. The idea is to buy bonds with maturity of three years or less. ECB President Mario Draghi claims this is within the mandate of the ECB. Germany’s Bundesbank reiterated its opposition to the plan. Draghi said the ECB would only help countries that signed up to and implemented strict policy conditions, with the euro zone’s rescue fund also buying their bonds, and preferably with the IMF involved in designing and monitoring the conditions. At a news conference, Draghi said: “Under appropriate conditions, we will have a fully effective backstop …

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Tuesday, September 4, 2012 – Review of the Economic News

Review of the Economic News DOW – 54 = 13,035SPX – 1 = 1404NAS + 8 = 307510 YR YLD +.02 = 1.58%OIL +.26 = 95.56GOLD + 3.60 = 1697.20SILV + .26 = 32.46PLAT  + 21.00 = 1576.00 The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index fell to 49.6% in August, lower than the 49.8% in July and the worst reading since July 2009. Readings below 50% indicate contraction in manufacturing companies surveyed. It appears to be part of a global trend; there has been a slowdown in manufacturing activity in Asia and Europe. Only eight of 18 industries as tracked by ISM were growing in August, led by printing, primary metals and food. August’s new-orders index fell to 47.1% from 48.0% in July; this points to manufacturers ratcheting down production activity, and that might also lead to a slowdown in hiring. The employment index fell to 51.6% from 52%; still positive but heading in the wrong direction. Another ISM survey of the services sector — things like banking, health care and entertainment — is also expected to show an economy plodding ahead. The services index is forecast to edge down to 52.5 from 52.6. The monthly jobs report is always an important chunk of economic data, and this Friday’s report takes on a little added significance because the Federal Reserve FOMC will be meeting next week to determine policy, and most likely announce something like QE3. It’s expected the economy added about 120,000 new jobs in August. While that’s enough …

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04032012 Script DOW – 64 = 13,199SPX – 5 = 1413NAS – 6 = 311310 YR YLD +.09 = 2.28%OIL +.07 = 104.08GOLD – 31.20 = 1646.80SILV -.31 = 32.78PLAT – 10.00 = 1647.00 Stocks slumped, bond yields rose, the dollar strengthened, and Wall Street traders experienced DT shakes as they read the Federal Reserve’s March FOMC meeting minutes. There was no direct mention of QE3, the Fed’s big money giveaway to the big banks. And so, the traders started twitching and squirming. Where would they get their next fix of free money? Market expectations for more Fed easing—both quantitative easing or an extension of its ‘operation twist’—have seesawed back and forth in the past several weeks. In the beginning of March, markets factored out quantitative easing based on comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that it might not be needed and that the economy was showing improvement. At the time, yields rose and stocks also held gains. But some weaker economic reports and new comments from Bernanke last week, defending the Fed’s easing stance, while not new, helped renew expectations for more easing. The minutes of the March 13 FOMC meeting show the voting members talking about more stimulus if the economy deteriorates. It also showed that the recent economic data did not materially change the forecast for 2013, or 2014. They also repeated past concerns about housing and unemployment, as well as discussed recent improvements in employment. Bernanke last week said the improvement in employment may be the …

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