Financial Review

The Day of Futures Past

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-21-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-21-2015   DOW – 48 = 17,168 SPX – 11 = 2018 NAS – 40 = 4840 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.03% OIL – 1.08 = 45.21 GOLD – 9.10 = 1167.70 SILV – .22 = 15.78   Oil futures settled at their lowest level in nearly three weeks. OPEC is holding a special meeting in Vienna with cartel members and non-members Russia and Mexico to discuss ways to prop up oil prices. Don’t hold your breath. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a much bigger than expected increase of eight million barrels in crude supplies for the past week.   The European Commission has ruled that Starbucks and Fiat Chrysler’s tax deals with the Netherlands and Luxembourg are illegal state aid, ordering the respective governments to recover as much as $34 million from each. The ruling follows an EU investigation launched in June 2014. It looked into whether the two companies were given so-called sweetheart tax deals that effectively lowered their corporate taxes.  Who’s up next? European regulators are finishing up investigations into McDonald’s and Amazon’s tax affairs in Luxembourg and Apple’s arrangements in Ireland.   Outgoing House Speaker John Boehner said Republicans will meet on Oct. 28 to nominate a candidate to replace him. Last night, Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin said he would run for the job if certain conditions were met. With a critical …

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Financial Review

Zilch COLA

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-15-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-15-2015 DOW + 217 = 17,141 SPX + 29 = 2023 NAS + 87 = 4870 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.20% OIL + .28 = 46.92 GOLD – .90 = 1184.40 SILV un = 16.22   The consumer price index, or prices at the retail level, declined by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in September. Over the past 12 months inflation at the consumer level has shown zero increase. Inflation has fallen sharply over the past year mainly because of lower gasoline prices. The cost of gasoline fell 9% in September. The cost of food, however, rose 0.4% owing largely to higher prices for dairy, fruits and vegetables. Stripping out food and energy, the core CPI rose 0.2%. Core prices are up 1.9% over the past 12 months. Separately, the Energy Information Administration reports crude inventories rose by 7.6 million barrels in the last week, compared with analysts’ expectations for an increase of 2.8 million barrels.   Americans who collect Social Security won’t get an increase in their monthly checks in 2016. Annual increases in Social Security are made every year based on changes in a component of the consumer price index known as CPI-W. That index fell 0.4% in the period used by the government to calculate the annual increase in cost-of-living adjustments.   The CPI-W looks at prices for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers; …

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Financial Review

Jobs Report Friday: meh

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-02-2015 DOW + 200 = 16,472 SPX + 27 = 1951 NAS + 80 = 4707 10 YR YLD – .05 = 1.99% OIL + .92 = 45.66 GOLD + 24.90 = 1139.40 SILV + .74 = 15.37   The economy added a seasonally adjusted 142,000 jobs in September, missing estimates by about 60,000. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.1%. More people dropped out of the labor force.   The Department of Labor revised the August employment numbers from 173,000, down to just 136,000.  The disappointing back-to-back employment reports were the worst pair in three years. Employment gains for July were also revised down from 245,000 to 223,000. The combined revisions for July and August lopped off 59,000 jobs from previous reports. Normally, the August jobs number is revised higher, not lower. Because of education related jobs and other variables, the August report has been notorious for upward revisions; typically at least 35,000 positions are added to the initial count. Not today. Six of the past eight reports have been revised lower in subsequent months.   Taken together, the three months averaged 167,000, a total that, while representing expansion, also signifies a major slowdown from the 260,000 per month clip for all of 2014. Moreover, at the beginning of the year, the three-month average was 312,000. Overall in 2015, job creation is now below the 200,000 milestone, …

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Financial Review

Sliding Into the Close

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-03-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 12.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-03-20015   DOW + 23 = 16,374 SPX + 2 = 1951 NAS – 16 = 4733 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.17% OIL – .12 = 46.63 GOLD – 8.70 = 1126.00 SILV + .03 = 14.83   Wall Street started the session on a high note, but could not hold it. Stocks slipped into the close and the Nasdaq turned red for the day. The stakes couldn’t be higher for the tomorrow morning’s August employment report, even though the month has typically been cursed by disappointment. The consensus guesstimate calls for about 215,000 to 220,000 new jobs created in August, with the unemployment rate holding at 5.3%, but August is notorious for misses. From 2005 to 2014, forecasters have over-estimated the initial August payrolls print seven times, including in each of the past four years. What’s more, the Labor Department (excluding annual and benchmark revisions) has marked up its first estimate in subsequent months in eight of the past 10 years. Part of the puzzle of forecasting August payrolls is the difficulty in adjusting for annual changes in the school-year calendar. Financial-market turmoil, at least, probably did little to impact hiring decisions in August. The government surveys households and businesses in the week that contains the 12th of the month, so the data will reflect responses covering the Aug. 9-15 period; that was a few days before the market …

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Financial Review

The Deadline Is Near

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-28-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 36 = 18,126 SPX – 2 = 2120 NAS – 8 = 5097 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.14% OIL + .46 = 57.97 GOLD – .02 = 1188.20 SILV + .01 = 16.76   The National Association of Realtors’ index of pending home sales increased in April for the fourth consecutive month to reach the highest level in nine years, signaling that upcoming deals could pick up. The pending home sales index climbed 3.4 percent to 112.4 last month. The index now is at its highest since May 2006.

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Financial Review

Sprinting Up a Mountain

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-14-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 18 = 17634 SPX + 0.49 = 2039.82 NAS + 8 = 4688 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.32% OIL + 1.74 = 75.95 GOLD + 26.40 = 1189.30 SILV + .64 = 16.41 The recent rally in the S&P 500 has been really, really strong. Today marked the 41st record high close for the S&P. In mid-September, the index dropped, and that continued until October 16th. On October 17th we told you about a bullish reversal pattern, and since then the S&P 500 has gained about 160 points. The S&P 500 has traded above its 5 day moving average for 21 consecutive sessions; this is unusual; it means the rally has been extremely strong and nearly non-stop; there were a couple of days where the index paused, but never really went down. The past 21 days resulted in a 12% gain; that’s like a runner sprinting up a mountain. The market is now extremely overbought. Typically, when the market is overbought, you might anticipate a pullback. We haven’t seen it yet, but we can anticipate and wait for the market to show us. There are plenty of reasons to think the stock market will continue higher. First reason is that it is in an uptrend right now; a trend in place is more likely to continue than it is to reverse. Another reason is that there is a …

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Financial Review

A Solid Week in a Rocky Month

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-24-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 127 = 16,805 SPX + 13 = 1964 NAS + 30 = 4483 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.27% OIL – .80 = 81.29 GOLD – .90 = 1232.00 SILV + .01 = 17.31 Last Friday we covered some technical analysis of the equity markets, looking at support and resistance, as well as a short-term bullish pattern, a morning star that had formed. Sure enough, this week provided the follow through on that bullish pattern. Major indices snapped a 4-week string of losses. For the week, the Dow gained 425 points, or 2.5%. The S&P gained 78 points, or 4.1%. And the weekly gain for the Nasdaq was 225 points or 5.2%. So, where do the markets go from here? The pullback that started September 19th never really materialized into a full blown correction, and there is a feeling that there should be more to the downside, but as of today the markets seem to be firmly in retracement mode. Better to let the market tell you when that retracement ends than to try to impose your opinions on the market. And then remember that we are almost through the treacherous month of October. The Stock Traders’ Almanac reminds us that “in 64 years before 2014, DJIA and S&P 500 have both declined 26 times in October. However, these October declines were followed by 23 DJIA November-December gains averaging …

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Financial Review

King Dollar and the Eurozone

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-10-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 115 = 16,544 SPX – 22 = 1906 NAS – 102 = 4276 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.30% OIL – .25 = 85.52 GOLD – .60 = 1224.00 SILV + .05 = 17.50 The 10 year German bund has a yield that is 141 basis points lower than the US 10 year Treasury note. The yield on German debt will get you 0.89%. Standard & Poor’s lowered France’s credit outlook today, and you can still get a 10 year French note with a yield of 1.25%. A 10 year note from Spain will only get you 2.06%. Is this because the US debt is riskier than the Spanish debt? No, just the opposite. The problem in the Eurozone is deflation, and it threatens to bring the economy to a grinding halt, and send the EU into a triple dip recession. The president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, gave no indication of any further monetary stimulus beyond what was announced this summer, suggesting in a speech in Washington that governments needed to do more on the fiscal side. Draghi said in effect that Eurozone countries that have enough money should spend it, a clear reference to Germany. His comments echoed remarks this week from Christine Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund. Today, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said her government was examining how to encourage investment, …

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Uncategorized

Wednesday, January 22, 2014 – A Mixed Bag

A Mixed Bag by Sinclair Noe DOW – 41 = 16,373SPX + 1 = 1844NAS + 17 = 424310 YR YLD + .04 = 2.86%OIL + 1.69 = 96.66GOLD – 3.80 = 1237.80SILV – .07 = 19.90 Another mixed day on Wall Street. It’s earnings season. IBM reported quarterly revenue that missed estimates for the fourth straight quarter, due to a steep fall in demand for servers and storage products in emerging markets such as China. IBM thinks part of the reason for declining revenue was backlash from emerging economies against US government spying. IBM was down enough to drag the Dow Industrials into negative territory for the day. Coach, the handbag maker, was the biggest loser in the S&P 500 after posting disappointing sales in North America. United Technologies, the air conditioner and elevator company, reported higher fourth-quarter profit that topped Wall Street estimates, though revenue fell shy of expectations. Norfolk Southern posted a 24 percent rise in quarterly income. After the close, Netflix reported higher profit for the fourth quarter as the company added 2.3 million customers to its TV and movie streaming service in the United States. A mixed bag of earnings today. Not much to cause the bulls or the bears to run. Target Corp said it will stop offering health coverage to part-time workers, citing new public insurance exchanges floated by the US government. Less than 10 percent of the company’s 361,000 employees currently participate in the insurance plan that is being discontinued. Target is …

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Uncategorized

Monday, October 07, 2013 – Already Bankrupt

Already Bankrupt by Sinclair Noe DOW – 136 = 14, 936 SPX – 14 = 1676NAS – 37 = 377010 YR YLD – .02 = 2.63%OIL – .67 = 103.17GOLD + 11.20 = 1323.40SILV + .61 = 22.45 The markets gave up Friday’s gains. The political dysfunction is hurting; right now it’s just the economic uncertainty; that’s a phrase I hate because businesses always face uncertainty but the shutdown and the looming debt ceiling are significant uncertainties. Let’s start with the debt ceiling. Businessweek is describing it as “an economic calamity like none the world has ever seen.” Here’s the not so rosy scenario: “Failure by the world’s largest borrower to pay its debt — unprecedented in modern history — will devastate stock markets from Brazil to Zurich, halt a $5 trillion lending mechanism for investors who rely on Treasuries, blow up borrowing costs for billions of people and companies, ravage the dollar and throw the U.S. and world economies into a recession that probably would become a depression. Among the dozens of money managers, economists, bankers, traders and former government officials interviewed for this story, few view a U.S. default as anything but a financial apocalypse. “ Sure, if the US misses a payment it would be much bigger than 2008 because the US government is so much bigger and more interconnected than Lehman Brothers; and after the collapse of Lehman, the government stepped in to clean up the mess. Who cleans up the mess when the mess is …

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