Financial Review

Checkers

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-24-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:00 — 7.4MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp hit record highs. Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole says economy is strong; Fed will be slow and steady moving forward. Trump Organization and Foundation under investigation. Weisselberg and Pecker have immunity. North Korean peace not happening. Godspeed John McCain. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-24-2018

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Financial Review

Trout Fishing In America

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-23-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:09 — 7.5MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…If impeached…, US-China trade war gears up. Trout fishing in Wyoming. No more SALT. Email it in Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-23-2018

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Financial Review

A Quiet Friday in August

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-25-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Here comes Horrible Harvey. Yellen’s last hurrah in Jackson Hole. Cohn hangs in. Mnuchin expects tax reform by end of year. Investors pull money out of US stocks. Samsung’s Lee sentenced. YouTube TV covers half the country. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-25-2017.

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Financial Review

Non-Freak

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-24-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Stocks drift lower. Congress to tackle debt ceiling and tax reform. Yellen final hurrah at Jackson Hole. Amazon swallows Whole Foods on Monday. Existing home sales slide. Harvey goes to Texas. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-24-2017

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Financial Review

Insert Clever Eclipse Headline

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-21-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Markets on pause. Fed labor survey slack. Afghanistan strategy. Trump to Phoenix. No climate assessment. No debt default, maybe. Sempra busy Oncor. Total buys Maersk oil. Chinese Jeeps. The ultimate photobomb. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-21-2017

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Financial Review

The Case Has Strengthened

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-26-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSThus spake Yellen. Fischer confirms she is serious. September is on. GDP revised down; look for ponies. Trade gap narrows. Why nobody invests in the US? Herbalife twist. Amazon v Rackspace. Just take a pill. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-26-2016

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Financial Review

Mylan Digs a Deeper Hole

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-25-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSUnemployment claims 77 week streak.  Durable goods orders are solid. Waiting on the Fed in Jackson Hole, even if you are Fed Up. Mylan gets greedy and CEO digs the hole deeper. Brazil impeachment update. The end of FARC. Turkey moves into Syria. ON Semi gets approval for Fairchild Semi. Sears staggered. Uber losses. Robo-taxi happens. Airbnb shows very real meaning of hospitality. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-25-2016

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Financial Review

Wake Me When It’s Over

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-24-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSWaiting on the Fed. Existing home sales drop. Oil, too. A phabulous phablet. Apple’s tax dodge finds a peculiar bedfellow. The really cool part about Tesla’s announcement. Blimps, really big blimps. Government intervention in cheese. The startling truth about “iced” beverages. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-24-2016

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Financial Review

Let’s Do the Limbo

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-22-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSThe market is stuck in limbo. The Fed readies for Jackson Hole. Pfizer buys Medivation. Something is wrong with drug prices. MJ on the AZ ballot. APS subpoenaed. AZ siphons off San Fran techies. Fed Facebook – what could go wrong?   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-22-2016

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Financial Review

It Was All Yellow

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-31-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-31-2015 DOW – 114 = 16,528 SPX – 16 = 1972 NAS – 51 = 4776 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.20% OIL + 2.80 = 48.02 GOLD + .60 = 1135.40 SILV + .04 = 14.73   Both the Dow and S&P had five days of gains or losses of more than 2 percent in August, making it the most volatile month in nearly four years. In August, the S&P lost 6.3 percent, the Dow fell 6.6 percent and the Nasdaq declined 6.9 percent. As far as Augusts go, this has been the worst performance for the Dow in 17 years. Overall it was the sixth worst monthly performance for the Dow and the worst since May 2010, when the Dow dropped 7.9%. For the S&P 500, it was the worst August since 2001; all 10 of the major S&P sectors were down for the month.   Investors are still divided over whether the Federal Reserve will hike rates next month, with Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer adding to the doubts in Jackson Hole over the weekend, saying: “At this moment, we are following developments in the Chinese economy and their actual and potential effects on other economies even more closely than usual.” Fischer was careful to announce he wasn’t signaling an impending rate rise, but the remarks suggest a September move hasn’t been ruled out of the FOMC’s next …

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Financial Review

Do Computers Dream of Algorithmic Capitulation?

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-28-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-28-2015 DOW – 11 = 16,643 SPX + 1 = 1988 NAS + 15 = 4828 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.19% OIL + 2.71 = 45.27 GOLD + 8.30 = 1134.80 SILV + .08 = 14.70   The week roared in like a lion and left like a lamb. For the week, the Dow gained 1.1 percent, the S&P rose 0.9 percent and the Nasdaq added 2.6 percent. Go figure. Panicked selling on Monday and Tuesday gave way to a rush to buy on Wednesday and Thursday.  And for many investors, it was just too much. Equity funds saw $29.5 billion head for the exits, the largest weekly outflow on record. On Tuesday, investors pulled out $19 billion, the biggest single day for outflows in the past 8 years.  Some traders would call that “capitulation”, a sign of a bottom in the markets.   The chaos of this week’s markets appeared to hit smaller investors especially hard, leaving yet another dent in their stock market confidence. The Monday flash crash resulted in smaller investors being locked out of their online accounts. Strange glitches appeared. Exchanges spit out the wrong prices for widely held funds. For example, the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF dropped 33% in 15 minutes, then shot right back up 30 minutes later, while the stocks tracked by the ETF never fell that far. The QQQ, …

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Financial Review

Better Than We Thought

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-27-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-27-2015 DOW + 369 = 16,654 SPX + 47 = 1987 NAS + 115 = 4812 10 YR YLD un = 2.17% OIL + 4.03 = 42.63 GOLD + .10 = 1126.50 SILV + .41 = 14.62   Yesterday Wall Street cracked a six-day losing streak with its best rally in nearly four years. Today, traders piled on; the two-day total, 978 points on the Dow industrials and the best two-day percentage gain since the crisis of 2008; which wipes out Monday’s losses, but still leaves the Dow down from one week ago. On the longer-term charts, Monday and Tuesday dropped below the lows of last October at 15,855, compared to Monday’s low of 15,370, which basically matched the lows from February 2014 at 15,340. On a long-term chart this now provides a range of support. With today’s gains, the S&P has recovered about half of the 11-percent meltdown it suffered over a six-day losing streak.   China’s key stock market index surged 5.3 percent earlier today, for its biggest gain in eight weeks, and the first gain in five sessions. China has been selling down its holdings of US Treasuries; the idea is to put a floor under the devaluation of the yuan; also probably to raise some capital for stimulus. So far, it isn’t an asset dump and there is absolutely no evidence it is the source of …

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Financial Review

Fired Up

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-26-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-26-2015 DOW + 619 = 16,285 SPX + 72 = 1940 NAS + 191 = 4697 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.17% OIL – .44 = 38.87 GOLD – 15.00 = 1126.40 SILV – .58 = 14.21   Stocks finally snapped a weeklong string of severe declines. The gain was the third-highest point gain in history for the Dow Jones industrials but, on a percentage basis, the 4% gain was not even in the top 20 historically. The Dow opened with a 443-point surge, pulled back and then rallied again to finish near its highs of the day, unlike yesterday when stocks surrendered their entire early gains and turned negative in the final hour of trade.   In China, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.3%, despite a new $22 billion injection from Beijing to shore up growth. Chinese equities have now extended their steepest five-day drop since 1996, losing half their value, or $5 trillion, since mid-June. Shares elsewhere in Asia ended mixed; European stocks were deep in the red.   We started with some strong economic data. Durable-goods orders rose a seasonally adjusted 2% last month after a 4.1% gain in June. Bookings for new cars and trucks and military hardware led the way. Orders rose 4% for autos and 22.3% for large defense goods such as fighter jets, missiles and tanks. Orders for aircraft dropped 6%. …

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Financial Review

Tax Weasels

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-25-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS08252014 Tax Weasels by Sinclair Noe LISTEN HERE DOW + 75 = 17,076 SPX + 9 = 1997.92 (record) NAS + 18 = 4557 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.38% OIL – .27 = 93.38 GOLD – 4.60 = 1277.20 SILV – .05 = 19.45 The S&P 500 crossed above 2000 intraday, closing off the high for the day, but still closing in record territory. We recognize it but we don’t have a big celebration. It’s just a number, a nice big round number. For reference, the S&P 500 topped 1,000 back in February 1998. Economic data today includes: Sales of new single family homes dropped for a second month in June. New home sales slipped 2.4%, but data from the past 3 months was revised to show 33,000 more new homes were sold than previously reported. The median sales price increased 2.9% from a year ago. At July’s sales pace it would take 6.0 months to clear the supply of houses on the market, the highest since October 2011. Tomorrow, we’ll see the latest data on existing home sales from S&P/Case-Shiller. Separately, financial data firm Markit said its preliminary services Purchasing Managers Index dipped to 58.5 this month from 60.8 in July.A reading above 50 indicates expansion. Last Friday ECB President Mario Draghi delivered the luncheon speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium; Draghi said the ECB had done all it could for …

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Financial Review

Be Careful Out There

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1_2-08-22-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 20:28 — 9.4MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS08222014 LISTEN HERE DOW – 38 = 17,001 SPX – 3 = 1988 NAS + 6 = 4538 10 YR YLD un = 2.40% OIL – .46 = 93.50 GOLD + 4.30 = 1281.60 SILV un = 19.51 All three major indices posted gains for the week, with the Dow up 2%, the S&P up 1.7% and the Nasdaq up 1.6%. It was the strongest week of gains for both the Dow and the S&P since April, and the third straight week of gains for all three indices. There is a lot to cover before we can wrap up the week. First we go to Jackson Hole Wyoming, where the Fed has been having a friendly get together of economists. Janet Yellen kicked off the event with a speech this morning. She said what you might expect: “There is no simple recipe for appropriate policy,” and she called for a “pragmatic” approach that gives officials room to evaluate data as it arrives without committing to a preset policy path. And she backed up her comments with a new tool, the Labor Market Conditions Index, which measures 19 labor market indicators, and it isn’t new data, just combining it all together, but it showed she is monitoring the data. Yellen referenced the possibility that labor markets may be a bit tighter than they seem and that the Fed may consider having to raise interest rates …

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Financial Review

Rarified Air

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-21-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS08212014 DOW + 60 = 17,039 SPX + 5 = 1992 NAS + 5 = 4532 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.40% OIL + .45 = 93.90 GOLD – 15.10 = 1277.30 SILV – .04 = 19.52 The S&P 500 broke two records during today’s session, climbing past its previous intraday all-time high of 1,991.39 and ending above its previous record close of 1,987.98. Both had been set on July 24. Family Dollar has rejected a $9 billion dollar buyout offer from Dollar General, opting instead for a smaller $8.5 billion dollar offer from Dollar Tree. The thinking is that a combination of the largest dollar store – Dollar General with the #2 Family Dollar, would be unlikely to win antitrust approval. Once upon a time, Sears was the largest retailer in the nation. Today, Sears Holdings announce it lost $975 million in the first half of the year; $573 million in the second quarter. This was the 9th consecutive quarter of losses, and the past quarter also marked the heaviest losses. Quarterly revenue dropped about 10%. The plan now is to close underperforming stores, or, in a classic example of corporate-speak “rationalizing our physical footprint.” The company successfully spun off Lands End earlier this year, to the benefit of shareholders. But its Sears Canada and Sears Automotive stores have been on the block for some time, indicating either a lack of interest …

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Financial Review

Theory and Instinct; Nobody Knows

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-19-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSOver the weekend, the geopolitical hotspots did not explode. Kurdish forces made progress against ISIS militants in Iraq; Ukrainian forces made progress against pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.

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Uncategorized

Monday, August 26, 2013 – And the Answer Is

And the Answer Is by Sinclair Noe DOW – 64 = 14,946SPX – 6 = 1656NAS – 0.22 = 365710 YR YLD – .02 = 2.78%OIL + .29 = 106.21GOLD + 7.20 = 1406.00SILV + .25 = 24.43 President Obama awarded Army Staff Sergeant Ty Carter the Medal of Honor in a ceremony at the White House today. Carter is now the fifth living recipient of the decoration for heroic actions in Iraq or Afghanistan. The Medal of Honor, the nation’s highest military honor was awarded for Carter’s distinguished service on October 3, 2009 at Combat Outpost Keating in Afghanistan. More than 300 Afghan insurgents launched an attack against the remote, mountainous outpost; of the 53 fellow 4th Infantry Division soldiers who defended the outpost that day, eight were killed and 25 others injured. They were outnumbered six to one; the fact that anyone survived is a testament to the heroism of the day. In another part of the compound, former Staff Sergeant Clinton Romesha, battled against incredible odds. Romesha was the second survivor of that battle to receive the Medal of Honor. Carter risked his own life to resupply his fellow soldiers and to rescue a battle buddy; Carter was wounded but continued to fight; all this while under heavy and constant fire that lasted more than six hours. It is hard to imagine the hell those soldiers endured that day. The wounded soldier that Carter rescued, Specialist Stephan Mace, would later die. Carter blamed himself. For Carter, the …

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Uncategorized

Friday, August 23, 2013 – QE Giveth and QE Taketh

QE Giveth and QE Taketh by Sinclair Noe DOW + 46 = 15,010SPX + 6 = 1663NAS + 19 = 365710 YR YLD – .08 = 2.82%OIL + 1.39 = 106.42GOLD + 21.70 = 1398.80SILV + .90 = 24.18 Yesterday, the Nasdaq crashed for about 3 hours; trading was halted; we still don’t know why. It now has a snappy name, the Flash Freeze. It happened after shares of Apple got stuck at $498, then everything froze. In time we’ll hear a good story about why it happened. My best guess for now is that it has to do with high frequency traders; the algo traders have a tendency to clog the trading pipes with all their bids, offers, and canceled orders as they try to scalp and front run trades. The market exchanges claim the high frequency traders provide liquidity, but I didn’t see any liquidity for about 3 hours yesterday; zip, nada. The markets had a pleasant and quiet day today, following a couple of weeks of fretting about Fed taper. America has created a whopping entitlement for the biggest Wall Street banks and their top executives, who, unlike most of the rest of us, are no longer allowed to fail. They can borrow from the Fed at almost no cost, then lend out the money at 3 percent to 6 percent or 30 percent; or they can take the money and gamble in markets they have rigged: derivatives, interest rates, energy, aluminum. It’s all rigged; the big …

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Tuesday, August 20, 2013 – 10 Year and Jackson Hole

10 Year and Jackson Hole by Sinclair Noe DOW – 7 = 15,002SPX + 6 = 1652NAS + 24 = 361310 YR YLD – .07 = 2.81%OIL – .77 = 106.33GOLD + 5.30 = 1371.90SILV – .16 = 23.13 One number keeps standing out from the daily scorecard. The yield on the 10 year note. That is the benchmark for interest rates. As a standalone figure, of course, the yield on 10-year Treasuries is small. But the amount of money it impacts worldwide is flat-out staggering. Out of the estimated $1.5 quadrillion dollars’ worth of derivatives on the planet right now, roughly $500 trillion is specifically related to interest rates. So you can see why the 10-year gets so much attention. Many investors believe the Fed controls interest rates. That’s not true; they merely influence them. Rates are set by trades in the market. And if interest rates rise much further, the support the Fed is counting on in the bond markets may not be there. In fact, it may be running the opposite direction. Foreign custody holdings of US Treasuries continue to decline, which implies that our trading partners are not comfortable with treasuries, so they’re moving to other assets. Meanwhile, emerging markets from Brazil to Indonesia have raised borrowing costs in 2013 to try to aid their currencies as the prospect of reduced US monetary stimulus curbs demand for assets in developing nations. The $3.9 trillion of cash that flowed into emerging markets over the past four years has …

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