Financial Review

Draghi Put

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-05-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Italy votes “NO”, but no problem thanks to Draghi Put. Austria leans left. Carson for HUD. Dakota pipeline might have environmental impact – who knew? ISM services bump. James Bullard comes to Phoenix to tour productivity. Consolidated Comm-Fairpoint. Amazon Go to automate grocery shopping. Elon Musk most admired. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-05-2016.

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Pause

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-16-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow waits for assault on 19,000. PPI unchanged. Industrial production unchanged. Mortgage rates up. Fed ready to hike rates. Bill Gross isn’t buying the Trump Bump. Snapchat files to go public. Amazon goes after knockoffs. Twitter goes after trolls. EU will fine more banksters. SEC finally addresses Flash Crash. Ford still going to Mexico. Playstation Fiesta Bowl. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-16-2016

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Fed Jawbones Hawkish

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-24-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSThe Fed talks hawkish, numbers don’t add up, Argentina skates, Puerto Rico under new colonial rule.

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Flip Flop Fedspeak

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-18-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-18-2016 DOW – 40 = 16,413 SPX – 8 = 1917 NAS – 46 = 4487 10 Y – .06 = 1.76% OIL – .12 = 30.54 GOLD + 22.30 = 1231.70 After spending 2015 calling for rate hikes St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Wednesday evening in a speech on monetary policy that it would be unwise for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates given declining inflation expectations and recent equity market volatility. Bullard, who is a voting member of the Fed’s rate-setting committee this year, said he now feels key assumptions supporting higher rates have been undermined. Bullard’s big concern is inflation expectations, and inflation has been trending lower, and Bullard believes stock market expectations have a big impact on inflation. In contrast to Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen or Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, Bullard doesn’t think labor market conditions have much impact on inflation as the traditional “Phillips curve” suggests.   Today, San Francisco Fed President John Williams gave a speech in LA, where he said the economy “is, all in all, looking pretty good.” Williams said his views of the economy haven’t changed much from December: “When I look at my December forecast and compare it with my outlook for unemployment and core inflation today, there’s virtually no change” Williams said he was aware of potential risks facing the economy but …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

What Puzzle?

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-20-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-20-2015 DOW + 91 = 17,823 SPX + 7 = 2089 NAS + 31 = 5104 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.26% OIL – .15 = 40.39 GOLD – 4.80 = 1078.00 SILV – .16 = 14.23     The S&P gained 3.3% for the week, its best showing since December. The Dow rose 3.4% for the week and the Nasdaq added 3.6%. And now we begin the Santa Claus rally on Wall Street, which kicks off with the Turkey Shoot. For 35 years prior to 1987, the Wednesday before and the Friday after Thanksgiving combined were up 33 times. The only declines were in 1964 and 1965. Subsequently, this trend changed. In the 28 years since 1987, there have been 12 declines and 16 advances. As Thanksgiving bullishness lost steam in 1987, the rally afterwards occurred more frequently. Since 1987, DJIA has logged gains in 22 of 28 years from the close on Friday after Thanksgiving to yearend. The S&P 500 is up 0.5% in November and 1.5% thus far in 2015. There are 28 trading days remaining in 2015.  And going back to 1950, December is the best month of the year for the S&P 500 with the final 30 days of a year producing a mean gain of 2.36%. There could still be a black swan or some other exogenous event. This does not …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

While the Sun Shines

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-26-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 40 = 17,678 SPX – 4 = 2056 NAS – 13 = 4863 10 YR YLD + .09 = 2.01% OIL + 2.22 = 51.43 GOLD + 9.00 = 1205.10 SILV = .15 = 17.20 Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies started bombing targets in Yemen as the country slides closer toward civil war. A Saudi military spokesman said there were no immediate plans to launch ground operations in Yemen. Importers say the Saudi attack is not expected to disrupt oil supplies, but the threat of spreading war in the region could likely impact oil flows. Yemeni President Hadi reportedly fled the country yesterday. The White House says the US will provide “logistical and intelligence support.”   Yemen is a fairly small oil producer, but still the news helped push oil prices up almost 5% today, and there are several reasons. First, if things go wrong, this could turn into a proxy war between Shiite Iran, which is backing the rebels, and Saudi Arabia and other Sunni monarchies that supported the Yemeni regime.  The Saudi action could exacerbate tensions in Libya, Syria and Iraq; in other words, this could be part of a trend in the region.   Yemen is also geographically strategic, at the chokepoint of the Red Sea; so there might be the possibility the rebels could disrupt oil tanker traffic; 3.8 million barrels a day …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Thirst for Innovation

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 104 = 18,011 SPX – 12 = 2091 NAS – 16 = 4994 10 YR YLD – .03 = 1.88% OIL + .06 = 47.51 GOLD + 3.90 = 1194.20 SILV – .04 = 17.04   The Labor Department reports the consumer price index climbed by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% last month. Gasoline prices rebounded in February. Higher costs for food, housing and new cars also contributed to the increase. Still, there’s been zero overall inflation in the last 12 months, mainly because of the big drop in gas prices. If food and energy are excluded, so-called core consumer inflation has risen at a 1.7% rate over the past 12 months.   In February energy prices rose 1%. Gasoline price are still down almost 33% in the past year. Food prices moved up 0.2% last month, bringing the increase over the past 12 months to 3%. Shelter costs also rose 3% in the past year. The cost of medical care fell in February for the first time since 1975, although overall health-care costs were unchanged.   Now, the reason the CPI number is important is because the Federal Reserve last week shifted from being patient about raising interest rates to being data dependent about hiking rates, and the data they are focusing on is inflation and jobs. Although the Fed uses a different index as its preferred …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Strange Days in Energy

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-03-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 305 = 17,666 SPX + 29 = 2050 NAS + 51 = 4727 10 YR YLD + .10 = 1.78% OIL + 2.52 = 52.09 GOLD – 13.70 = 1261.10 SILV + .09 = 17.37 One year ago, the Dow Industrials dropped down to 15,356, which proved to be the low for 2014. Since then, up 16%, mas o menos. Corelogic reports home prices slipped 0.1% in December, to take the year-on-year rate to 5%. Twenty-seven states and the District of Columbia are at or within 10% of their peak; current prices in Arizona are still 29.5% below the peak. Colorado (8.4%), Texas (7.8%) and New York (7.6%) saw the fastest growth, while only three states — Maryland (-0.7%), Vermont (-0.9%) and Connecticut (-2.2%) — saw a decline on a year-on-year basis. New orders for factory-made goods in the U.S. sank 3.4% in December to mark the fifth straight decline. The latest drop suggests that manufacturers may have scaled back production owing to a stronger dollar and weak economic growth overseas that’s made it harder to sell American-made goods. Inventories also declined for the first time in 19 months, down 0.3%. Excluding transportation, new factory orders fell a smaller 2.3%. Earnings reporting season: Chipotle Mexican Grill said its fourth-quarter earnings rose 52% as sales benefited from stronger customer traffic, higher menu prices and new stores. It’s tough …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Inflation or the Lack Thereof

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-22-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:21 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 153 = 16,461 SPX – 14 = 1927 NAS – 36 = 4382 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.23% OIL – 2.06 = 80.43 GOLD – 8.40 = 1242.00 SILV – .34 = 17.27 The major stock indices were higher this morning, then they dropped about the time were heard reports of a shooting in Ottawa Canada, near the parliament building. The shooting in the Canadian capital left a soldier dead and the city on lockdown. The Labor Department said the Consumer Price Index edged up 0.1% last month. In the 12 months through September, the CPI rose 1.7%. The core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, ticked up 0.1% last month, while the year-on-year change held steady at 1.7%. Energy prices fell for a third straight month in September, with gasoline costs slipping 1.0% after dropping 4.1% in August. Food prices gained 0.3% in September and were up 3.0% from a year ago, the largest gain in nearly 2-1/2 years. Shelter costs increased 0.3% in September after rising 0.2% in August. The medical care index increased 0.2%, with prices for nonprescription drugs posting a record increase. Airline fares declined for a third straight month, while prices for new motor vehicles and apparel were unchanged. Prices for used cars and trucks fell for the fifth straight month. Wages remain stagnant. Average hourly earnings adjusted for inflation fell …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Behind the Curtain

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-16-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 24 = 16,117 SPX + 0.27 = 1862 NAS + 2 = 4217 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.15% OIL + 1.16 = 82.94 GOLD – 2.20 = 1239.90 SILV – .08 = 17.47 The Dow is down for a sixth consecutive session. We started the morning down almost 200 points, so there is that. Part of yesterday’s volatility is being blamed on mini-flash crashes; 179 to be precise. Basically the high frequency traders yank their bids, as their algorithms try to catch up with big moves. It isn’t really a flash crash so much as a lack of liquidity. Take a deep breath. Think about how you are invested. Consider whether you are diversified across asset classes. The market has not collapsed. It has gone down in a fairly fast and furious manner, but it has not collapsed. What will happen next? Will the market bounce back? Will it go sideways? Will the pullback continue and become really painful? You don’t know; I don’t know; the market doesn’t know; nobody knows. Take a deep breath, consider where you are and where you want to be in the future. The stock market is always a gamble. Maybe you want to gamble with a part of your money, and that’s fine. Maybe you are tired of gambling and want to find something safer; that’s cool, too. Just understand what you’re …

READ MORE →