Financial Review

Before the Deluge

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-12-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Stocks trade in range. Apple’s big yawn. Beige book slightly dovish, but hawks will rule the FOMC. PPI slips. Middle class claws back to 1999. Businesses fight tariffs. Dimon is not running (wink, wink). Flo in the wings. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-12-2018

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Financial Review

Bouncy

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-05-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…More on tariffs. Individual stocks resist tweet attacks. Amazon’s R&D. Dimon’s letter. Lula’s sentence. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-05-2018

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Financial Review

Spring Break

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-06-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Xi in Florida. Syrian options. Senate goes nuclear for Gorsuch. Devin Nunes recused. Glass-Steagall reconsidered. Kashkari calls out Dimon. States downgraded. CMBX, a short trade crowded. Taser-AAXN Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-06-2017

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Financial Review

Dear Prudence

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-12-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSAfter Friday’s meltdown, more jawboning from Fed policymakers and an olive branch from Brainard spikes the market. Agrium and Potash deal. Linde and Praxair end deal. Samsung sells printers, and recalls phones. Tesla’s new autopilot. Time goes digital. Sanofi and Verily fight diabetes. Bezos blasts off. Hanjin ghost ships. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-12-2016

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Financial Review

Understanding Global Banking

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-11-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 38 = 18,039 SPX + 3 = 2130 NAS + 5 = 5082 10 YR YLD – .10 = 2.38% OIL – .87 = 60.56 GOLD – 3.60 = 1183.00 SILV + .02 = 16.13     Retail sales rose 1.2% in May on a seasonally adjusted basis.  Auto dealers and gasoline stations posted the strongest sales, but most major retail segments saw healthy gains. What’s more, sales in April and March were stronger than initially reported. Sales at auto dealers rose 2%; the auto sector generates about one-fifth of all retail spending. Sales were up 3.7% at gasoline stations as the price of fuel crept higher. Even if autos and gasoline are excluded, retail sales rose a healthy 0.7%.   Separately, the Federal Reserve reports household debt grew just 2.2% in the first quarter, as a 0.3% fall in mortgage debt offset a 5.6% rise in auto loans, student loans and credit cards. At the same time, real estate value increased by $411 billion. The net effect is that household net worth jumped $1.6 trillion. Meanwhile, corporate debt grew at a 7.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the first quarter as businesses pile on debt before a possible Fed rate increase.   The number of US workers who applied for unemployment benefits in the first week of June edged up by 2,000 to 279,000. Claims have been below …

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Financial Review

Fuld Again

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-29-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 115 = 18,010 SPX – 13 = 2107 NAS – 27 = 5070 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.09% OIL + 2.62 = 60.30 GOLD + 2.20 = 1191.00 SILV + .04 = 16.80   The Dow Jones industrial average ended about 115 points lower after falling more than 150 points during the session. The blue chip index posted a 0.9 percent gain for May. The S&P 500 ended up 1.1 percent for the month, and the Nasdaq outperformed with a 2.6 percent monthly gain.   Year to date the Dow Industrials are up about 1 percent, the S&P 500 is up about 2 percent, and the Nasdaq is up about 7%. This has been an extremely tight trading range to start the year. Another way to look at it is consolidation. And at some point the markets will break out of this tight range. The question is whether it will be a breakout or a breakdown. And if you’re looking for a divergent signal, the Dow Transports traded down for the day, for a 3.4 percent loss in May. The index is down 9 percent for the year.   Today’s big economic report was that first quarter Gross Domestic Product in the U.S. shrank at a 0.7 percent annualized rate, revised lower from a previously reported 0.2 percent gain. The revisions showed the trade gap widened …

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Financial Review

How to Eat a Bank

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-10-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 98 = 18,057 SPX + 10 = 2102 NAS + 21 = 4995 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.95% OIL + .99 = 51.78 GOLD + 13.80 = 1208.30 SILV + .34 = 16.59   For the week, the Dow is up 1.6 percent, the S&P is up 1.7 percent and the Nasdaq is up 2.3 percent. Both the Dow and S&P notched their second straight week of gains.   Oil posted its fourth consecutive weekly gain. The oil rally coincided with a stronger dollar, which weighs on dollar denominated commodities. In March, the prices the U.S. paid for imported goods and services fell for the eighth time in the last nine months, even though the cost of foreign oil actually rose for the second straight time. Import prices dropped 0.3% last month, or an even steeper 0.4% excluding fuel.   The sharply lower cost of imported goods is a double-edged sword. We may pay less for commodities and all sorts of goods such as cell phones and electronics; and that can stretch paychecks. Next Tuesday the Commerce Department reports on retail sales and we’ll find out if shoppers are in a spending mood or a savings mood. A strong dollar is also great if you plan to travel abroad; they say April in Paris is pretty nice. Yet the strong dollar also makes US goods and services …

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Financial Review

While the Getting is Good

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 56 = 17958 SPX + 9 = 2091 NAS + 23 = 4974 10 YR YLD + .06 = 1.96% OIL + .37 = 50.79 GOLD – 8.70 = 1194.50 SILV – .36 = 16.25   Initial claims for unemployment benefits increased 14,000 to 281,000 in the week ending April 4th.  Over the past 4 weeks, jobless claims have averaged 282,500 a week; the lowest level in 15 years. While companies are maintaining headcounts, job listings also have climbed. Openings rose to 5.1 million in February, the most since January 2001, according to the JOLTS report on Tuesday.   Wholesale inventories rose 0.3% in February as wholesale sales fell 0.2%, perhaps a sign that companies experienced less demand in late winter that could cause them to temporarily scale back production.   In a televised speech today, Iran’s  supreme leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Tehran would agree to a final nuclear accord with the US and five other nations only if all sanctions over its disputed nuclear work were lifted.  In remarks apparently meant to keep hardline loyalists on side, he warned about the “devilish” intentions of the United States. Meanwhile, Iran’s oil minister, speaking today in China said that OPEC would “coordinate” to accommodate Iran’s return to oil markets without causing a price crash.   Samsung Electronics expects to ship record numbers of its new Galaxy S6 smartphone after it goes …

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Financial Review

Fixing the Unbroken

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-31-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 200 = 17,776 SPX – 18 = 2067 NAS – 46 = 4900 10 YR YLD – .03 = 1.93% OIL – 1.15 = 47.53 GOLD – 2.30 = 1183.70 SILV – .06 = 16.73   The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index showed steady gains in January, up 0.9% from December. Compared to January 2014, prices were up 4.6%.  In Phoenix, resale home prices were unchanged from December to January, and posted a year-over-year gain of 2.6%.   The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index moved up to 101.3% in March from an upwardly revised 98.8 in February. The present situation index, a measure of current conditions, actually fell to 109.1 from 112.1. Yet the future expectations index increased to 96.0 from 90.   We’ve seen quite a bit of volatility in the markets lately. Today marks the 16 session in the month of March where the Dow Industrial Average has closed with a change in excess of 100 points. That is the second most of any month in history; following 20 triple digit moves in October 2008.   Sell in May and go away. You’ve probably heard this stock market advice. The idea is that you can divide the year into the best six months and the worst six months for the stock market; and we are now heading into the worst six months. Like most …

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Financial Review

Banks Under Assault

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-14-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 186 = 17,427 SPX – 11 = 2011 NAS – 22 = 4639 10 YR YLD – .05 = 1.84% OIL + .28 = 46.17 GOLD – 1.80 = 1230.10 SILV – .25 = 16.94 The roller coaster ride continues, with a 345 point swing in the Dow Industrials from the intraday high and low. A couple of economic reports set the stage this morning. First, retail sales in the US sank in December largely because of cheaper gasoline prices, but most stores posted surprisingly weak results during the busiest month of the shopping season. Sales at retailers dropped a seasonally adjusted 0.9% last month to mark the biggest decline in nearly a year. Excluding gas and car sales, retail sales fell 0.3%. It was the biggest decline for retail sales in 11 months. One month does not make a trend but this kind of puts a dent in the idea that consumers would save money at the gas station but spend elsewhere. Instead it looks like people are tightening purse strings, which is symptomatic of deleveraging and deflation; it might also be indicative of how much the economy has changed in terms of job stability, wage stagnation, and retirement prospects; all of which point to much greater pressures to save. The Federal Reserve then offered confirmation of a weak sales. The Fed’s Beige Book said most …

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Financial Review

Something is Rotten

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-12-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 315 = 17,280 SPX – 33 = 2002 NAS – 54 = 4653 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.10% OIL – 2.52 = 57.43 GOLD – 5.60 = 1222.80 SILV – .06 = 17.14 The fall in oil prices has been dramatic, now down almost 47% since June. Nobody was expecting it would fall that far that fast. Goldman was forecasting $85 oil for 2015 as recently as October 29. Crude-oil futures fell to their lowest since May 2009 on Friday, briefly dropping below $57 a barrel, after the International Energy Agency delivered the latest reduction in forecasts for global oil demand. On the week, oil futures have lost slightly more than 12%. So, oil is a bit oversold right here but it is never a good idea to try to catch a falling knife. And the whole drop just tells us that something is rotten in the markets. The fundamentals of oil have not changed in concert with the price. We don’t have double the oil we had in June. So why is the price cut in half? I know that’s overly simplistic, but either the market is too negative on energy, or it is not diligent enough in thinking about broader implications. Low prices lead to oil being left in the ground. Low oil prices lead to debt defaults. Low oil prices can lead …

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Monday, February 10, 2014 – Set the Tone

Set the Tone by Sinclair Noe DOW + 7 = 15,801SPX + 2 = 1799NAS + 22 = 414810 YR YLD + .03 = 2.69%OIL + .12 = 100.00GOLD + 7.90 = 1276.00SILV + .07 = 20.18 A little bit of follow up to last Friday’s jobs report, which you recall came in at 113,000 jobs added in January and the unemployment rate dropping to 6.6%. There was a huge discrepancy between the household survey and the business establishment survey; the household survey showed 616,000 new jobs. The household survey can be a bit volatile and is considered less reliable. There is also a discrepancy between the establishment survey and a couple of earlier reports from ISM and ADP. The Institute for Supply Management services index came in at 56.4% in January, indicating a strong month for service jobs. The ADP, or Automatic Data Processing, employment report indicated 160,000 private sector service jobs were created in January, or about 100,000 more jobs than the government reported. It will be very interesting to watch revisions to the jobs report next month. The major stock indices just loved the lousy jobs report, and this is a head scratcher for many people. Why would bad news on jobs be good news for stocks? Well, a weak job market gives employers the upper hand because most workers will accept lower wages, which translates into higher profits for corporate America. I know that is short sighted because the workers are also customers, but in the …

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Friday, January 24, 2014 – Bulls, Bears, and Bonuses

Bulls, Bears, and Bonuses by Sinclair Noe DOW – 318 = 15,879SPX – 38 = 1790NAS – 90 = 412810 YR YLD – .04 = 2.73%OIL – .41 = 96.91GOLD + 4.40 = 1270.00SILV – .11 = 20.01 The Dow has fallen every day this week, leaving it down more than 3%. That decline is the Dow’s worst weekly performance since mid-May 2012. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is down 2.5% since last Friday. That’s the index’s worst weekly slide since early November 2012. All of the sudden, everybody seemed concerned about political and economic problems in Turkey, Argentina, and of course, China. The Turkish lira hit a record low and the South African rand fell to five-year low against the dollar. The Argentine peso had its sharpest decline in 12 years, going back to the 2002 financial crisis in that country; and the government abandoned its long standing policy of intervening to support the peso currency. Such moves are crucial factors for big, institutional foreign investors because exchange rate losses can easily wipe out any gains in stocks and bonds of emerging countries. Right now, the losses haven’t turned into a rout, but there is concern that the turn may push big institutional investors to cut losses and run as the effect of falling currencies becomes too painful to bear. Every emerging market crisis is first-and-foremost a currency crisis. For example, South African government debt was slightly positive in rand terms in 2013. But in dollars terms, it lost more …

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Monday, December 09, 2013 – Corrupt Practices

Corrupt Practices by Sinclair Noe DOW + 5 = 16,025SPX + 3 = 1808NAS + 6 = 406810 YR YLD + .01 = 2.75%OIL – .41 = 97.24GOLD + 9.70 = 1241.40SILV + .30 = 19.94 Next week the Fed FOMC will meet to determine policy. Today, three Fed big wigs gave speeches. We start with James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank; Bullard says: “A small taper might recognize labor market improvement while still providing the [Fed] the opportunity to carefully monitor inflation during the first half of 2014,” and if inflation doesn’t return to something approaching a target of 2%, well the Fed could pause the taper. In separate remarks, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said that the central bankers would discuss pulling back the pace of its asset purchase program but gave no indication of how the discussion could go.  Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said the central bank should begin to scale back its bond-buying “at the earliest opportunity,” because, “Money is cheap and liquidity is abundant. Indeed, it is coursing over the gunwales of the ship of our economy, placing us at risk of being submerged in financial shenanigans rather than in conducting business based on fundamentals.” The taper talk spooked Wall Street traders but it’s unlikely the Fed will taper at the December meeting. There is little harm in postponing the decision till the new year, particularly compared to the risks of pulling back too soon. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve reports …

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Tuesday, November 19, 2013 – Too Good To Be True

Too Good To Be True by Sinclair Noe DOW – 8 = 15,967SPX – 3 = 1787NAS – 17 = 393110 YR YLD + .04 = 2.70%OIL + .31 = 93.34GOLD – .80 = 1276.20SILV – .06 = 20.44 No record high today; not a surprise; it can’t happen every day. So, we’ll see if this is a pause or whether we have to wait six years till we have milk and cookies again. Likely the former, but you never know. JPMorgan Chase and the Justice Department have reportedly finalized a $13 billion settlement and resolves an array of state and federal investigations into JPMorgan’s sale of troubled mortgage securities to pension funds and other investors from 2005 through 2008. The government accused the bank of not fully disclosing the risks of buying such securities which, as we know, failed. JPMorgan had to acknowledge a statement of facts that outline the bank’s wrongdoing in the case. JPMorgan also backed down from demands that prosecutors drop a related criminal investigation into the bank and largely forfeited the right to try to later recoup some of the $13 billion from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The $13 billion deal also comes just days after the bank struck a separate $4.5 billion deal with a group of investors over the sale of toxic mortgage-backed securities. The breakdown of the money includes a $2 billion fine to prosecutors in Sacramento and $4 billion in relief to struggling homeowners in hard hit areas like Detroit …

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Monday, October 21, 2013 – JPMorgan’s Deal

JPMorgan’s Deal by Sinclair Noe DOW – 7 = 15, 392SPX + 0.16 = 1744NAS + 5 = 392010 YR YLD + .02 = 2.61% OIL – 1.63 = 99.48GOLD – .80 = 1317.60SILV + .28 = 22.34 Apparently, over the weekend, JPMorgan Chase reached a $13 billion settlement with the Department of Justice and the New York Attorney General over the sale of mortgage backed securities back in the days of the housing bubble. We’re still waiting for details, but it looks like the tentative deal would resolve charges that JPMorgan misrepresented the quality of loans that had been packaged as mortgage backed securities, including mortgage backed securities packaged by Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual, the two failed institutions acquired by JPMorgan in 2008. And one of the unique features of this settlement is that it does not end a criminal investigation of the bank. Prosecutors did not want to end the criminal probe before they were sure of its findings. The investigation could take another several months. Ending the criminal probe was a long shot and the bank was not interested in holding up all the other settlements to wait for that. Civil cases require a lower burden of proof than criminal cases, and can often be wrapped up quicker than parallel criminal proceedings. In other words, they knew they could lose; so they took a deal. Now, $13 billion sounds like a lot of money, and it is for you or me, but not so much for …

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Friday, October 11, 2013 – We Have Met the Enemy

We Have Met the Enemy by Sinclair Noe DOW + 111 = 15,237SPX + 10 = 1703NAS + 31 = 379110 YR YLD un = 2.68%OIL – 1.22 = 101.79GOLD – 13.20 = 1274.20SILV – .34 = 21.44 The Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the OPCW, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, the international chemical weapons watchdog helping to eliminate the Syrian army’s stockpiles of poison gas. Its inspectors have just begun working in the active war zone, and the Norwegian Nobel Committee said it hopes the award offers “strong support” to them as they face arduous and life-threatening tasks. Overall consumer confidence decreased from 77.5 in September to 75.2 in October, according to the Index of Consumer Sentiment published by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan. The economic expectations index in the survey also fell from 67.8 in September to 63.9 for October, reaching the lowest level so far this year as consumers reported less optimism about the course of the economy for the next 12 months. In what has become an almost daily occurrence, Thursday night brought another poll, this one from NBC and the Murdoch Street Journal, showing that Americans really don’t like the politicians. A recap: Only 24% of Americans had a favorable view of Republicans, the lowest figure in the poll’s multi-year history and four percentage points lower than last month. Another low: only 21% had a favorable view of the tea party. Obama’s standing was relatively stable, moving from 45% …

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Friday, October 04, 2013 – This Is Not A Game

This Is Not A Game by Sinclair Noe DOW + 76 = 15,072SPX +11 = 1690NAS + 33 = 380710 YR YLD + .04 = 2.65%OIL + .39 = 103.70GOLD – 5.50 = 1312.20SILV + .04 = 21.84 The government showdown continues. So, there isn’t much actually happening. We don’t have a jobs report to analyze. The next jobs report will be so screwed up by the shutdown that it won’t be possible to make heads or tails of it, whenever it is reported. We don’t need a functioning government to tell us that the job market is lousy. But we do need one to help make the job market better. It’s the first Friday of the month, usually the day we get a bunch of random numbers from the government telling us what we already knew: Good jobs are scarce. This month, the government is too busy being held hostage by House Republicans to give us those random numbers. But there’s plenty of evidence already that September was grimly similar to many of the months that came before it in this grinding recovery. With sagging consumer confidence and hiring surveys, September may even have been worse than August. Whenever Bureau of Labor Statistics workers stop being furloughed by a government shutdown, economists, on average, expect it to report 185,000 new jobs on nonfarm payrolls in September and an unemployment rate holding at 7.3 percent. And if we look at this week’s ADP report and the ISM hiring survey, we …

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Wednesday, October 02, 2013 – Genie Out of the Bottle

Genie Out of the Bottle by Sinclair Noe DOW – 58 = 15,133SPX – 1 = 1693NAS – 2 = 381510 YR YLD – .02 = 2.63%OIL + 1.76 = 103.80GOLD + 28.80 = 1317.30SILV + .57 = 21.83 So, the heads of the biggest banks, including Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs and Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan and Brian Moynihan of Bank of America, and a list of others (apparently Dick Fuld from Lehman Brothers couldn’t afford the bus fare); so all these big banksters went to the White House today to discuss the shutdown. Heaven help us all. The President is getting advice on the economy from the very people who crashed the economy a few years ago. And then later in the afternoon the president met with lawmakers, not to negotiate but just to meet with the people that created the shutdown. Can everybody, please, just step away from the crack pipe? Maybe the politicians should try meeting with people that didn’t cause the problems. The meeting with the banksters, set up by the Financial Services Forum, a Washington-based trade group representing CEOs of the largest Wall Street banks, was part of an effort by the administration to leverage the business community’s clout in breaking the stalemate. Administration officials said pressure from the business community was effective in past fiscal fights. In other words, the financial industry threatened to take away the campaign contributions if the politicians persist in driving the economy off a cliff. The impending debt …

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