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Tuesday, September 10, 2011 – Infinite Monkey Diplomacy Theorem

Infinite Monkey Diplomacy Theorem by Sinclair Noe DOW + 127 = 15,191SPX + 12 = 1683NAS + 22 = 372910 YR YLD + .06 = 2.96%OIL – 2.29 = 107.23GOLD – 23.20 = 1364.30SILV – .75 = 23.07 The war hasn’t started…, yet. We had an off the cuff comment from Secretary of State John Kerry that set off a new peace plan. Kerry told reporters in London that President Bashar al-Assad of Syria could avert a strike if he turned over his chemical weapons stockpile within a week, adding that such an outcome was unlikely. This is apparently a new diplomatic policy based upon the infinite monkey theorem; which postulates that if you had a roomful of monkeys with typewriters, the monkeys would almost surely, eventually type out the complete works of William Shakespeare. In this context, the monkey is not an actual monkey but a metaphor for an abstract device or perhaps a Secretary of State, and given enough time to talk he would almost surely, eventually stumble across a peace plan. Last night his apparently off-the-cuff proposal had gained broad support, including a warm welcome from both Syria and Russia, which said it would bring Syria’s chemical weapons under international control. France has introduced a proposal with the UN. Kerry has denied the whole thing, calling the remark nothing more than a rhetorical exercise. Methinks he doth protest too much; for what is politics but a rhetorical exercise? If you don’t like the infinite monkey theorem, then …

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Monday, August 12, 2013 – The End of Mandatory Draconian Punishment

The End of Mandatory Draconian Punishment by Sinclair Noe DOW – 5 = 15,419SPX – 1 = 1689NAS + 9 = 366910 YR YLD + .02 = 2.60%OIL+ .19 = 106.16GOLD + 22.60 = 1338.30SILV + .87 = 21.53 This week’s economic calendar includes retails sales reports tomorrow, plus a look at inflation on the wholesale level tomorrow, and inflation at the retail level on Wednesday; also reports from the Philly Fed, plus a look at industrial production, housing starts, and consumer sentiment. The over-riding question is whether the economy is seriously showing strength or if we are just grinding along. Most of the expectations for this week’s data suggest more of the same old, same old. It’s doubtful we will see anything that could sway the Federal Reserve to change policy, and that means the stock and bond markets may have gotten ahead of themselves in pricing in an improving economy. The Treasury Department reported this morning that the US government spent $98 billion more than it took in last month, with the deficit driven by spending on healthcare programs, pensions for the elderly and the military. So far in the current fiscal year, which began in October, the federal government has run $607 billion into the red, a narrowing from the $974 billion deficit chalked up in the same 10 months of fiscal year 2012. A major change today from the Justice Department; Attorney General Eric Holder is calling for sweeping and systemic changes to the American judicial …

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Friday, July 12, 2013 – Malala Day

Malala Day by Sinclair Noe DOW + 3 = 15,464SPX + 5 = 1680NAS + 21 = 360010 YR YLD + .02 = 2.60%OIL + 1.34 = 106.25GOLD – .80 = 1285.80SILV – .23 = 20.02 So, let’s recap. On Wednesday, Ben Bernanke said the Fed wasn’t going to raise interest rates and really, nobody needs to worry about tapering. Or at least that’s what the markets decided to hear this time, and so the S&P 500 managed its best week in 6 months, up 2.6%; treasuries rebounded with their best week in a year as the yield on the 10 year notes dropped 14 basis points; the dollar had its worst week in almost 2 years and gold had its best week in 8 months. And the price of oil jumped about 5%, and gas prices are up 9 cents in the past 4 days with today’s increase the largest in 6 months, pushing the price of regular gas to its all-time high for this time of year. If you were looking for inflation, we found it. The Producer Price Index, or PPI, measures inflation at the wholesale level and it was came in at 0.8% for June; the increase was mainly because of a nearly 3% increase in energy prices. The US economy has long been, and still remains very vulnerable to big swings in energy prices. As you know, it is earnings reporting season, and today was the big day. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo reported earnings. Not …

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Wednesday, May 22, 2013 – Throwing Ben From the Chopper

Throwing Ben From the Chopper by Sinclair Noe DOW – 80 = 15,307SPX – 13 = 1655NAS – 38 = 346310 YR YLD +.08 = 2.03%OIL – 1.53 = 94.65GOLD – 6.30 = 1370.70SILV – .16 = 22.37 Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke went to Capitol Hill this morning and that was followed by the release of the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, minutes from their May 1st meeting and that was followed with a big swing lower for stocks on very heavy volume and a big swing lower for bonds and everything was just rocking and rolling. Bernanke was appearing before the Joint Economic Committee this morning; the gavel fell; Bernanke delivered some prepared remarks: “A premature tightening of monetary policy could lead interest rates to rise temporarily but would also carry a substantial risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery and causing inflation to fall further.” So, that sounded like no tapering off of QE anytime soon. Stocks and bonds inched a little higher. Bernanke went on to say that fiscal policy continues to be a drag on the economy. Right, we’ve heard it before. Then, Bernanke stressed that slowing asset purchases would not be the automatic beginning of the exit. The flow of purchases could be ramped up depending on the data. Now, the markets were trying to figure out which direction he’s going. Asked when the Fed will slow down asset purchases, Bernanke says it could come in “next few meetings”, but he won’t …

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Friday, April 12, 2014 – Trade Secrets

Trade Secrets by Sinclair Noe DOW – 0.08 = 14,865SPX – 4 = 1588NAS – 5 = 329410 YR YLD – .07 = 1.72%OIL – 2.85 = 90.66GOLD – 84.00 = 1478.00SILV – 1.81 = 25.95 The S&P 500 is up about 2.4 percent for the week, and the Dow up about 1.8 percent and Nasdaq up about 2.4 percent. The S&P has only had two weeks in 2013 with bigger gains. For the year, the Dow has gained more than 13 percent and the Nasdaq is up 8.7 percent. Retail sales fell in March for the second time in three months and consumer confidence dropped in April. Sales fell 0.4 percent in March. Consumer spending was considerably weaker in the first quarter than estimated. Core sales, which strip out cars, gasoline and building materials, fell 0.2 percent last month. This measure corresponds closely with the consumer spending component of the government’s measure of gross domestic product. It is widely believed that the end of the payroll tax holiday is related to the drop in consumer spending. Going a step further, growth is expected to slow sharply in the second quarter largely because fiscal policy tightened further in March. A separate report from Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan shows the consumer sentiment index dropping ot 72.3 in April, the lowest level since last summer. Producer prices, or prices at the wholesale level, fell 0.6 percent in March, their biggest drop in 10 months, as gasoline prices tumbled. In the 12 months …

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Friday, March 15, 2013 – But Wait, There’s More!

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click hereor call 480-820-5877. This year’s conference features Roger Weigand, Nathan Liles, David Smith, Mark Liebovit, Arch Crawford, Ian McAvity, Bill Tatro, and I will speak on Friday. There is an expanded Q&A session with all speakers on Saturday. I hope you can attend. But Wait, There’s More! By Sinclair Noe DOW – 25 = 14,514SPX – 2 = 1560NAS – 9 = 324910 YR YLD – .04 = 2.00%OIL + .42 = 93.45GOLD + 2.60 = 1593.90SILV – .04 = 28.87 Beware the Ides of March. The winning streak is over. These things don’t last forever. It’s just one day. The bad news continues for JPMorgan Chase. Bank executives have been appearing before the a Seante panel investigating the $6 billion trading losses of the London Whale. Today’s hearing and a subcommittee report released on Thursday paint a damning picture of a bank and high-level employees raking in huge payouts while ignoring risks, deceiving investors, fighting with regulators and trying to work around rules as losses mushroomed in a derivatives portfolio. The Subcommittee investigators, largely the same crew who unraveled financial scandals surrounding infamous Goldman Sachs trades like Abacus and Timberwolf, and also took on HSBC’s trans-global money-laundering activities in an extraordinarily detailed report issued last summer, have now taken aim at the heart of the Too-Big-To-Fail issue through its investigation into the CIO …

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Thursday, March 14, 2013 – Infinite Possibilities

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click hereor call 480-820-5877. This year’s conference features Roger Weigand, Nathan Liles, David Smith, Mark Liebovit, Arch Crawford, Ian McAvity, Bill Tatro, and I will speak on Friday. There is an expanded Q&A session with all speakers on Saturday. I hope you can attend. Infinite Possibilities by Sinclair Noe DOW + 83 = 14,539SPX + 8 = 1563NAS + 13 = 3258 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.03%OIL + .41 = 92.78GOLD + 2.60 = 1591.30SILV – .11 = 28.91 March 14 is Pi Day, the official celebration of the mathematical constant pi, the number that represents the ratio of a circle’s circumference to its diameter. What makes pi so special? It is an incredibly complex way to describe the simplest shape; a circle. No matter how large or small the circle, the ratio is always 3.1415926, I could go on forever with the number because, as an irrational number, pi never ends. Some scientific types have calculated pi to 10 trillion digits, but the numbers of pi are random, with no repeating patterns. So pi has an unknown, infinite quality. It never ends, and since it is really a circle, it has no beginning. So, today is a day of infinite of infinite possibilities. Case in point. The Dow posted a record high again. This is the tenth straight day of gains on …

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Wednesday, January 16, 2013 – Fuzzy Justice

Fuzzy Justice by Sinclair Noe DOW – 23 = 13,511SPX +0.29 = 1472NAS + 6 = 311710 YR YLD – .01 = 1.82%OIL + .88 = 94.16GOLD + .10 = 1681.00SILV + .12 = 31.59 The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index was flat at a seasonally adjusted level of 47 in January. This is a gauge of homebuilders’ confidence. Conditions in the housing market look much better now than at the beginning of 2012 and an increasing number of housing markets are showing signs of recovery, which should bode well for future home sales later this year. The builder-confidence gauge is up 88% from the same period in the prior year, even though the number was essentially flat for the January reading. Industrial production increased 0.3% in December and now stands at the highest level since the summer of 2008. Production is up for 2 months, indicating a recovery from Hurricane Sandy. The House of Representatives finally passed a $51 billion aid package to provide emergency relief for Hurricane Sandy. It was a partisan vote, but 49 Republicans voted for the aid package, mainly representatives from the affected areas. The Consumer Price index was flat in December. The core rate of inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 0.1%. Gasoline prices dropped last month. For all of 2012 consumer prices climbed 1.7%, the third lowest rate in the past 10 years. That’s also down from a 3% increase in the prior year. Core CPI was up 1.9% …

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Friday, December 14, 2012 –

A Sad Day by Sinclair Noe DOW – 35 = 13,135SPX – 5 = 1413NAS – 20 = 297110 YR YLD -.02 = 1.71%OIL +.97 = 86.86GOLD – 1.10 = 1697.20SILV – .23 = 32.31 A total of 27 people dead at school in Newtown, Connecticut; 20 children, 6 adults, and the shooter; the kids were between the ages of 5 and 10. There was possibly another person shot before the massacre at the school. The shooter’s mother was a teacher at the school and she was killed, but it is pretty clear this was more than just an attack on the mother. So, if you see the flags at half mast today, this is why. We’ve seen it before at Columbine, at Virginia Tech, at Aurora, and just earlier this week in a mall in Portland. This time it was especially horrible because it was mostly children; the innocents. It is estimated that there are 87 gun related deaths per day in the US, and this week it was kids. I understand that tragedy is a part of life. I understand that other places in the world experience tragedy. What is happening in Syria is tragic, what is happening in the Sudan is tragic. What is happening in Afghanistan is tragic. None of that discounts the tragedy in Connecticut. Thoughts and prayers and consolation for the victims are appropriate and comforting to some extent, but there should be something more. Something is wrong in this country. I have no …

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Tuesday, November 27, 2012 – Economic Data, Geithner’s Cliff, Greek Bailout, Warren’s Pitch, Blankfein’s Irony

Economic Data, Geithner’s Cliff, Greek Bailout, Warren’s Pitch, Blankfein’s Irony by Sinclair Noe DOW – 89 = 12,878SPX – 7 = 1398NAS – 8 = 296710 YR YLD -.02 = 1.65%OIL – .45 = 87.29GOLD – 7.60 = 1742.80SILV – – .13 = 34.15 Durable goods orders leveled off in October, mainly because of slack demand for automobiles and airplanes and a reversal in defense orders. Most other manufacturers saw an uptick in demand; so, conditions aren’t getting worse; they aren’t getting better either. Or at least that is how it looks at first blush. Overall orders for durable goods were virtually flat in October, but factoring out the volatile defense and transportation industries, so-called core capital orders jumped 1.7% last month to mark the strongest gain since May. Home prices rose in September for the sixth straight month. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite posted a non-seasonally adjusted 0.3% increase in September to reach the highest level in two years, following a 0.8% gain in August. Home prices were up 3% from September 2011 for the largest annual percentage growth since July 2010. In the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reports that non-real estate debt jumped 2.3% to 2.7 trillion, with increases in student loans, auto loans, and credit card balances. Overall consumer debt shrank $74 billion to $11.3 trillion as mortgage debt decrease more than $120 billion. Nearly a quarter of a million people had a foreclosure tacked onto their …

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