Financial Review

Two Paths Diverge

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-02-2015 DOW – 158 = 17,729 SPX – 23 = 2079 NAS – 33 = 5123 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.18 OIL – 1.67 = 40.1 GOLD – 15.60 = 1054.20   American businesses stepped up hiring last month, led by strong gains in retail, finance and other service industries. Payroll processor ADP says that private companies added 217,000 jobs last month, the most in five months. Service sector firms added 204,000, while manufacturers hired just 6,000. The figures come just two days before the government issues its official jobs report for November. If the Friday jobs report is anywhere close to today’s ADP report, it might lock in a rate hike at the Fed FOMC meeting in two weeks.   The productivity of American businesses was higher in the third quarter than initially reported — but so were labor costs. Newly revised government figures show that productivity rose at a 2.2% annual rate instead of 1.6%. Unit-labor costs were revised higher to show a 1.8% annual increase in the third quarter, and second quarter costs were revised higher. As a result, the year-over-year increase in labor costs climbed to a 3% rate, the highest level in six quarters. Unit-labor costs reflect how much it costs a business to produce one unit of output, such as a refrigerator or a ton of steel.   The Fed published …

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Financial Review

A Twisted Duck

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-04-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-04-2015 DOW – 50 = 17,867 SPX – 7 = 2102 NAS – 2 = 5142 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.23% OIL – 1.38 = 46.52 GOLD – 9.70 = 1108.50 SILV – .20 = 15.16   Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen testified before the House Financial Services Committee today. Yellen reiterated that the Fed could raise its benchmark interest rate in December; she said a rate hike “could be appropriate”; the economy is “performing well”; she expects economic growth to continue; the Fed is inclined to raise rates; however, “no decision has been made.”   Many of the Fed’s immediate concerns have come and gone without catastrophe. The global financial markets are slogging along, and Congress managed to pass a budget and raise the debt ceiling. So, there are only a couple of potential impediments between now and a December rate hike. First is the Friday jobs report; if the payroll growth is in line with expectations, or a bit better, and if that report can be followed with another solid jobs report in early December; plus no stumbles on the GDP numbers, plus some hint of inflation, then Yellen says, “December would be a live possibility.”   We could also draw up a list of reasons why the Fed might want to wait: persistent long-term unemployment, weak growth in third quarter GDP, no signs …

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Financial Review

Speech of the Day

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-24-2015   DOW – 75 = 16,201 SPX – 6 = 1932 NAS – 18 = 4734 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.12% OIL + .43 = 44.91 GOLD + 23.80 = 1155.10 SILV + .36 = 15.25   Pope Francis addressed a joint meeting of Congress this morning. Francis urged the United States not to turn its back on undocumented immigrants, to reject the victimization of religious and ethnic minorities, to overcome income inequality and to save the planet from climate change, citing Scripture and the nation’s founding ideals. He also asked lawmakers to wage a constant battle against poverty and to ensure the wealth of the world is equitably shared and used to create jobs. It was really a very remarkable and beautifully crafted speech. I’m posting a link to the full text of the speech on by blog, and I would hope that you have a chance to hear or read the entire speech because it covers some of the most important issues of our time. You may be in total agreement with Francis or you might disagree with some parts, but make no mistake – this was a strong and moving address from one of the most influential people in the world.  After the speech, Francis went from some of the most powerful people to some of the least powerful as he had …

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Financial Review

Never the Twain Shall Meet

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-22-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-22-2015 DOW – 179 = 16,330 SPX – 24 = 1942 NAS – 72 = 4756 10 YR YLD – .09 = 2.12% OIL – .85 = 45.83 GOLD – 8.70 = 1125.70 SILV – .45 = 14.87   Pope Francis is in Washington. The Pope will visit Washington, New York City and Philadelphia as part of his first-ever trip to the U.S., a six-day, five-night trip which will feature a couple of masses that are expected to draw huge crowds. The Pope will address a joint session of Congress Thursday; he may make points that challenge both parties, particularly if he repeats his remarks against what he sees as the excesses of globalization and capitalism. And he may discomfort both the White House and Congress if he urges them to do more to help Syrian refugees flooding through Europe. Then he will address the United Nations General Assembly in New York, where he will also conduct mass at Madison Square Garden on Friday.   China’s President Xi Jinping touched down in Seattle today to meet American business leaders before heading to Washington on Thursday to speak with President Obama. The two will discuss several thorny issues, including cybersecurity, the South China Sea, North Korea’s nuclear threat, human rights and a widening trade deficit. President Xi will tour the Boeing aircraft plant near Seattle. Not much new to see …

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Financial Review

First Do No Harm

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-17-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-17-2015 DOW – 65 = 16,674 SPX – 5 = 1990 NAS + 4 = 4893 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.22% OIL – .25 = 46.90 GOLD + 11.80 = 1132.00 SILV + .21 = 15.24   The Fed will raise rates someday, just not today. The FOMC issued their statement today, and they left interest rates unchanged, again. The biggest change in the wording dealt with international markets, saying: “Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term.”   The statement also included this new line: “The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced, but is monitoring developments abroad.” You may recall that China was also frequently referenced in the Beige Book published a couple of weeks ago in preparation for this FOMC meeting.   The Fed also released their economic projections and they seem to be forecasting more of the same: GDP just over 2% for 2015, the unemployment rate finishing the year at 5%, inflation still significantly short of their target, and the outlook for a rate hike before the end of the year. But don’t bet on it; this Fed might never get off the Schneid. There will be growing pressure for a rate hike, …

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Financial Review

Chips and Salsa

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-16-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:03 — 6.0MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 70 = 18,120 SPX + 16 = 2124 NAS + 64 = 5163 10 YR YLD un = 2.35% OIL + .13 = 51.04 GOLD – 4.30 = 1145.60 SILV – .12 = 15.08   The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record high, taking out the old record from last month. After hours of debate, Greek lawmakers passed a bailout agreement late last night. Eurozone finance ministers agreed in principle to extend a €7 billion-euro bridge loan to Greece. The loan would allow Greece to pay some of its outstanding bills, meet a scheduled repayment to the ECB next week and open the door to securing a third bailout package. Up next: the German Bundestag will vote on Friday whether or not to approve the new rescue, however, talks over securing a new €86B bailout are likely to last for another four weeks.  European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he views the country’s place in the euro as secure. Greek banks are still closed for the time being.   Yesterday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said once again that the Fed is likely to raise interest rates at some point in 2015. Yellen told the House Financial Services Committee that the first hike since 2006 “will signal how much progress the economy has made in healing from the trauma of the financial crisis.” Today, Yellen repeated her semi-annual testimony to …

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Financial Review

Endless Possibilities

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-15-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 3 = 18,050 SPX – 1 = 2107 NAS – 5 = 5098 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.35% OIL – 1.43 = 51.61 GOLD – 5.90 = 1149.90 SILV –  .28 = 15.19   I think the markets couldn’t quite figure out what to make of today.   In the late 1970s Sen. Hubert Humphrey and Rep. Augustus Hawkins sponsored legislation known as the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978. The idea was to set monetary policy to try to achieve the goals of full employment, growth in production, price stability, and balance of trade and the budget. The Act also required the Federal Open Market Committee to report to Congress twice a year, in February and July; we used to call it the Humphrey-Hawkins testimony.   Testimony coincides with the publication of the Fed’s Beige Book, which was released today. The Beige Book cited improving consumer spending, mixed activity for transportation, positive reports on real estate, increasing lending activity, and “modest” wage pressures. The report did reveal trouble spots, such as the strengthening dollar, which led to soft growth around border areas, and the decline in oil and natural gas drilling.   The Humphrey-Hawkins Act expired about 10 years ago; perhaps because the goals of full employment, balanced budgets and balanced trade seem like Utopian pipedreams, but the Fed chair still heads …

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Financial Review

Burn the Doors

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-13-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 217 = 17,977 SPX + 22 = 2099 NAS + 73 = 5071 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.43% OIL – .35 = 51.85 GOLD – 5.30 = 1158.50 SILV – .12 = 15.60   Greece and Eurozone creditors reached a tentative agreement that might unlock about $95 billion in new aid to Greece in exchange for new tough concessions by the Athens government, which included reforms to the pension system, higher taxes, and privatization. However, the €85 billion-euro deal is not official until the Greek parliament on Wednesday passes the deal; and that might be a tough ask given the “no” vote in the recent referendum. Before we get to a Wednesday vote in Athens, there are several Eurozone finance ministers that will have to approve a €12 billion-euro package of short-term bridge financing, to allow the Greek banks to reopen. If the new deal is approved, the bank “holiday” could be lifted as soon as Thursday. And then after that, the Euro Union countries would have to sign off on a deal, unanimously. So, it’s a very complicated deal with considerable risk. Wall Street has never been good at reading the fine print, and stocks moved higher today on the idea that the never-ending negotiations over Greek debt might finally be ending, when in fact, they are just kicking into another gear.   And …

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Financial Review

Sound and Fury

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-10-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 211 = 17,760 SPX + 25 = 2076 NAS + 75 = 4997 10 YR YLD + .11 = 2.41% OIL + .04 = 52.82 GOLD + 3.50 = 1163.80 SILV + .23 = 15.72   For the week, the Dow rose 0.17 percent while the S&P fell 0.01 percent and the Nasdaq ended down 0.23 percent in its third straight weekly decline. The markets were full of sound and fury, signifying nothing, perhaps.   Greece faces a Sunday deadline to reach a deal with its creditors. Yesterday, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras submitted a proposal that appears to meet most creditor demands in exchange for a new €53 billion-euro bailout. The package of spending cuts, pension savings and tax increases almost mirrors that from creditors on June 26, which was rejected by Greek voters in a July 5 referendum. Eurozone decision makers are set to assess the plan during crisis meetings on Saturday and Sunday. Meanwhile, Tsipras took the proposal to the Greek parliament to see if they will stand behind the deal. Outside, anti-austerity protestors rallied against the deal; which makes sense; last week a strong majority voted against the very type of deal Tsipras is now trying to sell. The Greek blueprint for pension cuts and VAT increases is essentially copied word-for-word from the June 24 European proposal; it does not appear to include debt relief. …

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Financial Review

Countdown to Liftoff

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-17-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 31 = 17,935 SPX + 4 = 2100 NAS + 9 = 5064 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.31% OIL – .22 = 59.75 GOLD + 3.60 = 1186.10 SILV + 11 = 16.22   The Fed has wrapped up its June FOMC meeting. No surprises. The economy is getting better, so they say. While the Fed says they have made “considerable progress” toward its goal of maximum employment, “the committee wants to see evidence of some further progress.” They are not hiking rates right now; they will probably hike rates in September, but don’t worry about the exact date because it will be so small and gradual you will hardly notice. That’s the quick version from the Fed.   Further wage and job gains could give Fed officials confidence that inflation, which has lingered below their 2 percent goal for three years, is likely to move higher. Growth is poised to pick up as consumers start spending a windfall from lower gasoline prices, even though that hasn’t happened yet. The economy is likely to expand at a 2.5 percent annual pace in the second quarter after shrinking 0.7 percent in the previous three months. Officials now expect the economy to grow this year between 1.8 percent and 2 percent. Just a few months ago, in March, they had predicted growth of 2.3 percent to …

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Financial Review

Lie or Be Lehman

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-27-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 121 = 18,162 SPX + 19 = 2123 NAS + 73 = 5106 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.13% OIL – .38 = 57.65 GOLD + .20 = 1189.00 SILV – .07 = 16.75   Yesterday the Dow posted a triple digit loss, today a triple digit gain; not enough to cover yesterday’s losses. The Nasdaq was higher on strength in semiconductor stocks; the Nasdaq posted a new record high close, taking out the high from April 24. The dollar was slightly stronger, oil was down again.   Severe storms and devastating floods over the weekend in Texas and Oklahoma have killed at least 19 people. Another 14 people are missing in Texas, including eight members of two families whose vacation home was swept away. The flooding has also resulted in complications for business travelers. About 11 inches of rain fell in Houston on Monday while parts of Austin have been hit by as much as 7 inches. Helicopter crews in both cities rescued people who had been stranded in cars and on top of buildings. The National Weather Service issued a new flash flood warning today.   The IRS says tax return information for about 100,000 U.S. taxpayers was illegally accessed by cyber criminals over the past four months. The stolen information included tax returns and other tax information on file with the IRS. The IRS said …

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Financial Review

Proactive in the Face of Volatility

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-22-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 53 = 18,232 SPX – 4 = 2126 NAS – 1 = 5089 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.21% OIL – .78 = 59.94 GOLD SILV   Central bankers are speaking out. Earlier today, Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank reiterated his call for euro zone countries to reform their economies, warning that future growth would remain modest. Draghi said: “It should…be clear that the argument that accommodative monetary policy constitutes an excuse for governments and parliaments to postpone their reform efforts is incorrect. Recently, economic conditions have improved somewhat in Europe…but growth is too low everywhere.”   This afternoon Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen delivered a speech in Rhode Island. Yellen said: “the U.S. economy seems well positioned for continued growth.” And she said: “If the economy continues to improve as I expect, I think it will be appropriate at some point this year to take the initial step to raise the federal funds rate target and begin the process of normalizing monetary policy.”   The Fed has consistently stated that they would be data dependent, but today Yellen said “Delaying action to tighten monetary policy until employment and inflation are already back to our objectives would risk overheating the economy.” So, apparently data dependent is subject to interpretation.   Yellen expressed confidence that the economy will get better and the first quarter …

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Financial Review

The New Norml

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-27-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 34 = 17,712 SPX + 4 = 2061 NAS + 27 = 4891 10 YR YLD – .06 = 1.95% OIL – 3.01 = 48.42 GOLD – 5.70 = 1199.40 SILV – .13 = 17.07   Modest gains on Wall Street today, but not nearly enough to make up for the four previous days of losses. It wound up being the second-worst week for the market so far this year. The Dow Jones industrial average remains down slightly for 2015, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 index is essentially flat. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.2 percent, the Dow lost 2.3 percent and the Nasdaq declined 2.7 percent. The semiconductor sector was a leader today after a report that Intel is in talks to buy rival chipmaker Altera. Intel shares were up 6%; Altera shares were up 28%.   Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.2 percent annual rate last quarter. This was the Commerce Department’s third estimate of GDP, and it was unchanged from last month’s estimate.  Economic growth cooled in the fourth quarter and after-tax corporate profits recorded their biggest drop since early 2011, as a strong dollar dented the earnings of multinational corporations. The fourth quarter GDP was down from a very strong third quarter reading of 5% growth. The first estimate on the first quarter will be published April 29th.   Profits originating outside the …

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Financial Review

While the Sun Shines

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-26-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 40 = 17,678 SPX – 4 = 2056 NAS – 13 = 4863 10 YR YLD + .09 = 2.01% OIL + 2.22 = 51.43 GOLD + 9.00 = 1205.10 SILV = .15 = 17.20 Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies started bombing targets in Yemen as the country slides closer toward civil war. A Saudi military spokesman said there were no immediate plans to launch ground operations in Yemen. Importers say the Saudi attack is not expected to disrupt oil supplies, but the threat of spreading war in the region could likely impact oil flows. Yemeni President Hadi reportedly fled the country yesterday. The White House says the US will provide “logistical and intelligence support.”   Yemen is a fairly small oil producer, but still the news helped push oil prices up almost 5% today, and there are several reasons. First, if things go wrong, this could turn into a proxy war between Shiite Iran, which is backing the rebels, and Saudi Arabia and other Sunni monarchies that supported the Yemeni regime.  The Saudi action could exacerbate tensions in Libya, Syria and Iraq; in other words, this could be part of a trend in the region.   Yemen is also geographically strategic, at the chokepoint of the Red Sea; so there might be the possibility the rebels could disrupt oil tanker traffic; 3.8 million barrels a day …

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Financial Review

Transitory, Not Terminal

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-23-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 11 = 18,116 SPX – 3 = 2104 NAS – 15 = 5010 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.91% OIL + .88 = 47.45 GOLD + 6.90 = 1190.30 SILV + .25 = 17.08   The Dow Jones Industrial Average is still above 18,000. The Nasdaq Composite is above 5,000. The Russell 2000 is near record highs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Composite, which dipped below 17,000 early in the year, took about a month to surge from 18,000 to 19,000 and is now rapidly approaching the 20,000 level; heights that haven’t been seen since 2000. Germany’s DAX recently traded above 12,000 for the first time and is up nearly 30 percent from the lows set earlier this year. London’s FTSE 100 is over 7,000, at its highest level in 15 years. Central bank monetary easing seems to be having the desired effect of pumping up financial assets around the globe, and even if the Fed is talking about hiking rates in the US, we haven’t seen a serious rate hike tantrum on Wall Street, yet.   U.S. home resales rebounded less than expected in February. The National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales rose 1.2% to an annual rate of 4.88 million units. Inventories are tight and also sales were hurt by harsh winter weather in the Northeast, where sales dropped 6.5%; sales were up …

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Financial Review

Not Patient But No Hurry

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-18-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 227 = 18,076 SPX + 25 = 2099 NAS + 45 = 4982 10 YR YLD – .11 = 1.95% OIL + 1.25 = 44.71 GOLD + 18.30 = 1166.90 SILV + .36 = 15.99 Today is Fed decision day. The Federal Reserve released a policy statement along with quarterly economic projections followed by a Janet Yellen news conference. In the statement, the Fed removed the phrase about being “patient” regarding an interest rate increase, which might seem like bad news for Wall Street; except, they came up with new language which sounds like they will be …, well, patient about increasing interest rates.   Here is the new language: The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.    So, now we are looking for “further improvement in the labor market” and reasonable confidence” about inflation.   If this sounds like so much word play, well it is; but the bottom line is that they did not make a firm commitment to raising rates in June, and it could be quite some time until we see interest rates rise. Wall Street liked it and went from a triple digit …

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Financial Review

Sometimes Brazenly

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-04-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 106 = 18,096 SPX – 9 = 2098 NAS – 12 = 4967 10 YR YLD un = 2.12% OIL + 1.26 = 51.78 Private-sector employment gains continued in February but at a slower pace than in the prior month. Automatic Data Processing Inc. reported Wednesday that employers added 212,000 jobs last month. On Friday, we’ll get the non-farm payroll report for February; it is expected the economy added about 235,000 jobs last month.   The Congressional Budget Office estimates the Treasury Department will exhaust its capacity to borrow in October or November if the debt limit isn’t raised. The debt limit is suspended until March 15. After that date, so-called extraordinary measures available to the Treasury to keep borrowing include deferring new investments in federal retirement and disability funds.   The U.S. Supreme Court is considering the fate of Obamacare for the second time in three years, weighing an attack on tax credits designed to help millions of people afford insurance. The Court heard arguments today in the case of King v. Burwell, an appeal by four Virginia residents who would block the subsidies in at least 34 states. The fight centers on a four-word phrase that has become a linchpin of the law. The measure says people qualify for tax credits when they buy insurance on an online marketplace “established by the state.” The challengers …

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Financial Review

Gulliver’s Travels

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 92 = 18,209 SPX + 5 = 2115 NAS + 7 = 4968 10 YR YLD – .07 = 1.99% OIL – .29 = 49.16 GOLD – .50 = 1202.30 SILV – .01 = 16.41   The Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 hit record high closes. The Nasdaq rose for the tenth straight session, its longest streak since July 2009. The Russell 2000 Index of small cap stocks closed at a record 1233.   Fed Chair Janet Yellen testified today before the Senate banking committee in her semi-annual report on monetary policy. Yellen said the Fed is preparing to consider interest rate hikes “on a meeting-by-meeting basis.” Yellen described how the Fed’s rate-setting policy committee will likely proceed in coming months: first by removing the word “patient” in describing its approach to rate hikes, then entering a phase in which rate hikes are possible at any meeting. That approach could open the door to an interest rate increase as early as June, but short-term rate futures contracts showed traders had shifted their expectations of an initial rate hike from September to October. And the yield on the ten year Treasury note slipped down below 2%. So, the markets players are placing their bets.   Yellen said she felt labor markets and other key economic indicators “have been increasing at a solid rate.” However, she said she still feels the …

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Financial Review

The Dog Ate the Greek Proposal

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-23-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 23 = 18,116 SPX – 0.64 = 2109 NAS + 5 = 4960 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.06% OIL – 1.36 = 49.45 GOLD – 2.10 = 1202.80 SILV + .05 = 16.42   The S&P 500 climbed 0.6 percent last week to finish at record highs, the third record high of the year. The Dow rose to its first record of the year and the Nasdaq Composite closed at its highest level since March 2000, closing in on 5000. The Russell 2000 Index advanced 0.7 percent, also ending at a record Friday. Much of the stock market action has followed news of a compromise with Greece. At last week’s meeting, Greece signed up to all the conditions of its current bailout package and to continued international oversight, provided the Greeks come up with a list of reforms. Easier said than done; any reforms have to be acceptable to the Troika (the IMF, the ECB, and the EU, and subject to approval by all EU members) and at the same time it will have to be acceptable to Greeks who voted against the austerity plans of the Troika. The plan was supposed to be presented today, but that didn’t happen. Now the Greeks say they will present the reforms tomorrow. Given that Monday night was treated as a hard deadline for getting the Greek proposals …

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Financial Review

Have a Cigar

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-17-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 288 = 17,356 SPX + 40 = 2012 NAS + 96 = 4644 10 YR YLD + .08 = 2.15% OIL + .06 = 55.94 GOLD – 6.10 = 1189.90 SILV + .03 = 15.85 I have been telling you for a few years now that the Fed is a vital force in the stock market. I have talked about how the stock market has advanced along with the Fed’s balance sheet. Today absolutely confirms what I’ve been telling you. Most major indices started the day a little higher, and then jumped following the Fed’s FOMC statement and again during Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s press conference. At one point the Dow Industrial Average was up about 300 points; and then people started to digest what was being said; which is what we will do right now.

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