Financial Review

Two Paths Diverge

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-02-2015 DOW – 158 = 17,729 SPX – 23 = 2079 NAS – 33 = 5123 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.18 OIL – 1.67 = 40.1 GOLD – 15.60 = 1054.20   American businesses stepped up hiring last month, led by strong gains in retail, finance and other service industries. Payroll processor ADP says that private companies added 217,000 jobs last month, the most in five months. Service sector firms added 204,000, while manufacturers hired just 6,000. The figures come just two days before the government issues its official jobs report for November. If the Friday jobs report is anywhere close to today’s ADP report, it might lock in a rate hike at the Fed FOMC meeting in two weeks.   The productivity of American businesses was higher in the third quarter than initially reported — but so were labor costs. Newly revised government figures show that productivity rose at a 2.2% annual rate instead of 1.6%. Unit-labor costs were revised higher to show a 1.8% annual increase in the third quarter, and second quarter costs were revised higher. As a result, the year-over-year increase in labor costs climbed to a 3% rate, the highest level in six quarters. Unit-labor costs reflect how much it costs a business to produce one unit of output, such as a refrigerator or a ton of steel.   The Fed published their …

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Financial Review

A Twisted Duck

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-04-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-04-2015 DOW – 50 = 17,867 SPX – 7 = 2102 NAS – 2 = 5142 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.23% OIL – 1.38 = 46.52 GOLD – 9.70 = 1108.50 SILV – .20 = 15.16   Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen testified before the House Financial Services Committee today. Yellen reiterated that the Fed could raise its benchmark interest rate in December; she said a rate hike “could be appropriate”; the economy is “performing well”; she expects economic growth to continue; the Fed is inclined to raise rates; however, “no decision has been made.”   Many of the Fed’s immediate concerns have come and gone without catastrophe. The global financial markets are slogging along, and Congress managed to pass a budget and raise the debt ceiling. So, there are only a couple of potential impediments between now and a December rate hike. First is the Friday jobs report; if the payroll growth is in line with expectations, or a bit better, and if that report can be followed with another solid jobs report in early December; plus no stumbles on the GDP numbers, plus some hint of inflation, then Yellen says, “December would be a live possibility.”   We could also draw up a list of reasons why the Fed might want to wait: persistent long-term unemployment, weak growth in third quarter GDP, no signs of …

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Financial Review

Speech of the Day

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-24-2015   DOW – 75 = 16,201 SPX – 6 = 1932 NAS – 18 = 4734 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.12% OIL + .43 = 44.91 GOLD + 23.80 = 1155.10 SILV + .36 = 15.25   Pope Francis addressed a joint meeting of Congress this morning. Francis urged the United States not to turn its back on undocumented immigrants, to reject the victimization of religious and ethnic minorities, to overcome income inequality and to save the planet from climate change, citing Scripture and the nation’s founding ideals. He also asked lawmakers to wage a constant battle against poverty and to ensure the wealth of the world is equitably shared and used to create jobs. It was really a very remarkable and beautifully crafted speech. I’m posting a link to the full text of the speech on by blog, and I would hope that you have a chance to hear or read the entire speech because it covers some of the most important issues of our time. You may be in total agreement with Francis or you might disagree with some parts, but make no mistake – this was a strong and moving address from one of the most influential people in the world.  After the speech, Francis went from some of the most powerful people to some of the least powerful as he had a …

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Financial Review

Never the Twain Shall Meet

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-22-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-22-2015 DOW – 179 = 16,330 SPX – 24 = 1942 NAS – 72 = 4756 10 YR YLD – .09 = 2.12% OIL – .85 = 45.83 GOLD – 8.70 = 1125.70 SILV – .45 = 14.87   Pope Francis is in Washington. The Pope will visit Washington, New York City and Philadelphia as part of his first-ever trip to the U.S., a six-day, five-night trip which will feature a couple of masses that are expected to draw huge crowds. The Pope will address a joint session of Congress Thursday; he may make points that challenge both parties, particularly if he repeats his remarks against what he sees as the excesses of globalization and capitalism. And he may discomfort both the White House and Congress if he urges them to do more to help Syrian refugees flooding through Europe. Then he will address the United Nations General Assembly in New York, where he will also conduct mass at Madison Square Garden on Friday.   China’s President Xi Jinping touched down in Seattle today to meet American business leaders before heading to Washington on Thursday to speak with President Obama. The two will discuss several thorny issues, including cybersecurity, the South China Sea, North Korea’s nuclear threat, human rights and a widening trade deficit. President Xi will tour the Boeing aircraft plant near Seattle. Not much new to see really, …

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Financial Review

First Do No Harm

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-17-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-17-2015 DOW – 65 = 16,674 SPX – 5 = 1990 NAS + 4 = 4893 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.22% OIL – .25 = 46.90 GOLD + 11.80 = 1132.00 SILV + .21 = 15.24   The Fed will raise rates someday, just not today. The FOMC issued their statement today, and they left interest rates unchanged, again. The biggest change in the wording dealt with international markets, saying: “Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term.”   The statement also included this new line: “The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced, but is monitoring developments abroad.” You may recall that China was also frequently referenced in the Beige Book published a couple of weeks ago in preparation for this FOMC meeting.   The Fed also released their economic projections and they seem to be forecasting more of the same: GDP just over 2% for 2015, the unemployment rate finishing the year at 5%, inflation still significantly short of their target, and the outlook for a rate hike before the end of the year. But don’t bet on it; this Fed might never get off the Schneid. There will be growing pressure for a rate hike, if …

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Financial Review

Chips and Salsa

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-16-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:03 — 6.0MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 70 = 18,120 SPX + 16 = 2124 NAS + 64 = 5163 10 YR YLD un = 2.35% OIL + .13 = 51.04 GOLD – 4.30 = 1145.60 SILV – .12 = 15.08   The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record high, taking out the old record from last month. After hours of debate, Greek lawmakers passed a bailout agreement late last night. Eurozone finance ministers agreed in principle to extend a €7 billion-euro bridge loan to Greece. The loan would allow Greece to pay some of its outstanding bills, meet a scheduled repayment to the ECB next week and open the door to securing a third bailout package. Up next: the German Bundestag will vote on Friday whether or not to approve the new rescue, however, talks over securing a new €86B bailout are likely to last for another four weeks.  European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he views the country’s place in the euro as secure. Greek banks are still closed for the time being.   Yesterday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said once again that the Fed is likely to raise interest rates at some point in 2015. Yellen told the House Financial Services Committee that the first hike since 2006 “will signal how much progress the economy has made in healing from the trauma of the financial crisis.” Today, Yellen repeated her semi-annual testimony to the …

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Financial Review

Endless Possibilities

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-15-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 3 = 18,050 SPX – 1 = 2107 NAS – 5 = 5098 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.35% OIL – 1.43 = 51.61 GOLD – 5.90 = 1149.90 SILV –  .28 = 15.19   I think the markets couldn’t quite figure out what to make of today.   In the late 1970s Sen. Hubert Humphrey and Rep. Augustus Hawkins sponsored legislation known as the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978. The idea was to set monetary policy to try to achieve the goals of full employment, growth in production, price stability, and balance of trade and the budget. The Act also required the Federal Open Market Committee to report to Congress twice a year, in February and July; we used to call it the Humphrey-Hawkins testimony.   Testimony coincides with the publication of the Fed’s Beige Book, which was released today. The Beige Book cited improving consumer spending, mixed activity for transportation, positive reports on real estate, increasing lending activity, and “modest” wage pressures. The report did reveal trouble spots, such as the strengthening dollar, which led to soft growth around border areas, and the decline in oil and natural gas drilling.   The Humphrey-Hawkins Act expired about 10 years ago; perhaps because the goals of full employment, balanced budgets and balanced trade seem like Utopian pipedreams, but the Fed chair still heads to …

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Financial Review

Burn the Doors

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-13-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 217 = 17,977 SPX + 22 = 2099 NAS + 73 = 5071 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.43% OIL – .35 = 51.85 GOLD – 5.30 = 1158.50 SILV – .12 = 15.60   Greece and Eurozone creditors reached a tentative agreement that might unlock about $95 billion in new aid to Greece in exchange for new tough concessions by the Athens government, which included reforms to the pension system, higher taxes, and privatization. However, the €85 billion-euro deal is not official until the Greek parliament on Wednesday passes the deal; and that might be a tough ask given the “no” vote in the recent referendum. Before we get to a Wednesday vote in Athens, there are several Eurozone finance ministers that will have to approve a €12 billion-euro package of short-term bridge financing, to allow the Greek banks to reopen. If the new deal is approved, the bank “holiday” could be lifted as soon as Thursday. And then after that, the Euro Union countries would have to sign off on a deal, unanimously. So, it’s a very complicated deal with considerable risk. Wall Street has never been good at reading the fine print, and stocks moved higher today on the idea that the never-ending negotiations over Greek debt might finally be ending, when in fact, they are just kicking into another gear.   And then …

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Financial Review

Sound and Fury

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-10-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 211 = 17,760 SPX + 25 = 2076 NAS + 75 = 4997 10 YR YLD + .11 = 2.41% OIL + .04 = 52.82 GOLD + 3.50 = 1163.80 SILV + .23 = 15.72   For the week, the Dow rose 0.17 percent while the S&P fell 0.01 percent and the Nasdaq ended down 0.23 percent in its third straight weekly decline. The markets were full of sound and fury, signifying nothing, perhaps.   Greece faces a Sunday deadline to reach a deal with its creditors. Yesterday, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras submitted a proposal that appears to meet most creditor demands in exchange for a new €53 billion-euro bailout. The package of spending cuts, pension savings and tax increases almost mirrors that from creditors on June 26, which was rejected by Greek voters in a July 5 referendum. Eurozone decision makers are set to assess the plan during crisis meetings on Saturday and Sunday. Meanwhile, Tsipras took the proposal to the Greek parliament to see if they will stand behind the deal. Outside, anti-austerity protestors rallied against the deal; which makes sense; last week a strong majority voted against the very type of deal Tsipras is now trying to sell. The Greek blueprint for pension cuts and VAT increases is essentially copied word-for-word from the June 24 European proposal; it does not appear to include debt relief. The …

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Financial Review

Countdown to Liftoff

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-17-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 31 = 17,935 SPX + 4 = 2100 NAS + 9 = 5064 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.31% OIL – .22 = 59.75 GOLD + 3.60 = 1186.10 SILV + 11 = 16.22   The Fed has wrapped up its June FOMC meeting. No surprises. The economy is getting better, so they say. While the Fed says they have made “considerable progress” toward its goal of maximum employment, “the committee wants to see evidence of some further progress.” They are not hiking rates right now; they will probably hike rates in September, but don’t worry about the exact date because it will be so small and gradual you will hardly notice. That’s the quick version from the Fed.   Further wage and job gains could give Fed officials confidence that inflation, which has lingered below their 2 percent goal for three years, is likely to move higher. Growth is poised to pick up as consumers start spending a windfall from lower gasoline prices, even though that hasn’t happened yet. The economy is likely to expand at a 2.5 percent annual pace in the second quarter after shrinking 0.7 percent in the previous three months. Officials now expect the economy to grow this year between 1.8 percent and 2 percent. Just a few months ago, in March, they had predicted growth of 2.3 percent to 2.7 …

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