Financial Review

Running Dry

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-01-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Big earnings announcements from Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Alibaba, and others. ISM manufacturing stays strong. Automakers January sales results. Productivity slips. Cape Town runs out of water. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-01-2018

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Financial Review

Worst Ever

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-07-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-07-2016 DOW – 392 = 16,514 SPX – 47 = 1943 NAS – 146 = 4689 10 Y – .02 = 2.15 OIL – .74 = 33.23 GOLD + 15.40 = 1110.20     The Chinese stock market was open for about 15 minutes; stocks dropped 5%, triggering circuit breakers, or rules that suspended trading. When trading resumed, it was all downhill and that triggered another level of circuit breakers, shutting down trading for the day; 29 minutes in total, the shortest session in Chinese market history. Circuit breakers are a new idea for Chinese markets; they have only been used since Monday, the start of the New Year. Trading was halted on Monday for 30 minutes. We have circuit breakers in place on Wall Street, and the idea is to allow a cooling off period when stocks are in freefall. In the US, trading is halted temporarily after declines of 7% and 13% in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, and only suspended for the rest of the day if losses reach 20%. In China, it only seems to make investors more nervous and they scramble to sell before getting locked out. After the trading halt, Chinese regulators decided to scrap the circuit breaker rule for the foreseeable future.   The Shanghai Composite Index finished down 7% at 3,125, bringing its losses over just four trading days to …

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Financial Review

One Foot on the Gas, One Foot on the Brake

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 251 = 17,164 SPX – 26 = 1994 NAS – 48 = 4635 10 YR YLD – .08 = 1.67% OIL + 3.25 = 47.78 GOLD + 25.00 = 1284.10 SILV + .31 = 17.33 GDP growth slows. The Commerce Department reports fourth quarter gross domestic product grew by 2.6%, down from a very strong 5% growth rate in the third quarter. The results were below consensus estimates of 3% growth. For all of 2014, the economy grew 2.4% compared to 2.2% in 2013. Consumer spending advanced at a 4.3% pace in the fourth quarter – the fastest since the first quarter of 2006 and an acceleration from the third quarter’s 3.2% pace. The final read on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index was 98.1, down a tick from the 98.2 in the preliminary estimate. That’s still above the 93.6 mark in December and the best reading in 11 years. Just as consumers were stepping on the gas, businesses were tapping the brakes. Business spending on equipment fell at a 1.9% rate. It was the largest contraction since the second quarter of 2009. The fourth-quarter weakness could reflect cuts or delays to investment projects in the oil industry. But it could also be payback after two back-to-back quarters of robust gains. A wider trade deficit, as slower global growth curbed exports and solid domestic demand sucked …

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Financial Review

Admit It

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-08-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 323 = 17,907 SPX + 36 = 2062 NAS + 85 = 4736 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.01% OIL + .08 = 48.73 GOLD – 2.20 = 1209.90 SILV – .16 = 16.48 Since 1928, the Standard & Poor’s 500 has started the year with 3 straight losing days eight times. And only once has the S&P 500 finished one of those years in the red. During the 8 years since 1928 that the S&P started with 3-day losing streaks, the index has returned 8.3% on average. For all years since 1928, the S&P has returned 7.5% on average. Maybe it’s a good thing to start the year with 3 straight losing sessions. Then there is the idea that the first 5 trading sessions of the year can be used to extrapolate the direction of the market for the year. If that is the case, then we might expect some rough sledding for the markets in the early part of the year followed by a strong second half of the year. This is a variation on the idea of the January barometer, which says (basically) that if January is positive, the year will be positive, and vice versa; that didn’t work last year, but it is accurate about 89% of the time. Of course, that’s just probabilities and tendencies. We don’t know where the market …

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Uncategorized

Monday, January 27, 2014 – Sniffing Out Weakness

Sniffing Out Weakness by Sinclair Noe DOW – 41 = 15,837SPX – 8 = 1781NAS – 44 = 408310 YR YLD + .04 = 2.76%OIL – .94 = 95.70GOLD – 12.50 = 1257.50SILV – .22 = 19.79 Last week was rough for the Dow Industrial, and today started with the blue chips in the red but not by much; it even looked like we might finish in positive territory. Nahh. The markets have been trending downward over the last week due to a mix of concerns. Emerging market strains, anxiety over tapering by the Federal Reserve, and weak manufacturing data from China likely contributed to a pullback. Also, new home sales were weak in December. The international problems started with a report that Chinese manufacturing may contract for the first time in 6 months. Then Argentina’s central bank limited dollar sales to preserve international reserves that had fallen to a seven-year low. Then there were concerns about a default in the shadow banking system in China. Then there concerns about a corruption scandal for Prime Minister Erdogan’s cabinet in Turkey. Protesters occupied municipal buildings in the Ukraine. Then the South African rand dropped big. Then the whole thing spread. I don’t know what happened in Mexico but the peso took a hit. Bank of America analysts recommended buying the Mexican peso on Nov. 24 as one of their top two Japan-related trades for this year, predicting a rally that would have boosted the currency’s value to 8.4 yen. Instead, the …

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Thursday, January 02, 2014 – Back in the Groove

Back in the Groove by Sinclair Noe DOW – 135 = 16,441SPX – 16 = 1831NAS – 33 = 414310 YR YLD – .04 = 2.99%OIL – 2.93 = 95.49GOLD + 17.50 = 1224.00SILV + .57 = 20.11 I’m back. We’ll try to settle into the groove here, starting with a look at the daily economic news. Financial data firm Markit said its final US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to 55.0 last month, beating November’s 54.7 reading. So, manufacturing ended the year on a high note, growing in December at the fastest pace in 11 months. Signs of strength in both the manufacturing and services sector as well as stronger job growth across the economy contributed to the Federal Reserve’s decision in December to begin tapering, slowing its monthly bond purchases. I had expected the Fed would wait to begin the taper. I was wrong. It wasn’t really a shocking development because we knew they would eventually taper, it was just a matter of timing. The taper hasn’t actually started yet, it’s only been announced. One area where we’re starting to see some impact is in mortgage rates, now at the highest levels since September. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 4.53% this week, up from 4.48%. And Freddie Mac also reports the average 15-year fixed rate climbed to 3.55% from 3.52%. While a jump in mortgage rates has slowed demand, buyers continued to push prices higher. According to the most recent S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, …

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Monday, January 7, 2013 – I Went on Vacation and Not Much Changed

I Went on Vacation and Not Much Changed by Sinclair Noe DOW – 50 = 13,384SPX – 4 = 1461NAS – 2 = 309810 YR YLD -.01 = 1.90%OIL + .21 = 93.30GOLD – 9.90 = 1647.90SILV – .02 = 30.26 Forty years ago, Yale Hirsch at the Stock Traders Almanac, created the January Barometer. The idea was simple: as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year. This market prediction tool has been correct 89% of the time since 1950, suffering only seven major setbacks. Since 1950, stocks have finished lower for the year only three times after posting gains in January. When the Dow is positive in January, then the rest of the year is positive 83% of the time, averaging additional gains of 9.59%. Compare that to the Dow’s performance when January is negative. In those years, the February-December returns are positive just half of the time, with an average gain of 2.04%. As with the full-year results, a positive January typically leads to a positive February. When the Dow closes higher in January, February goes on to average a return of 0.57%, and is positive 63% of the time. When January is negative, February is negative more than half the time, and averages a loss of more than 1%. However, an outsized return in January has not necessarily translated into a bigger return for February. If January is up more than 3.5%, the average February gain is not as big as if January is …

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