Financial Review

Remember

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-11-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:09 — 7.5MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Stocks bounce; tech and energy up. Trade concerns linger. Ray Dalio in the 7th inning of the buildup to WW3. GDP forecast slump. Deficit grows. Job openings climb. Here comes Flo. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-11-2018

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Closing in on 3%

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-23-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Bond prices fall. Fed may have 4 hikes in 2018. Existing home sales pick up in March. Job openings but no raises. Alphabet beats big. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-23-2018

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Exasperating November Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-02-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Economy adds 178,000 jobs in November. Unemployment rate drops to 4.6%. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-02-2016

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Unsustainable

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-07-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 93 = 17,776 SPX + 12 = 2081 NAS + 5 = 4997 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.23% OIL + .14 = 52.67 GOLD – 15.50 = 1155.30 SILV – .70 = 15.15   These are interesting times. There is the situation in Greece; the Chinese equity markets are suffering a bit of a meltdown; Puerto Rico has fallen into a black hole of debt; negotiations are underway with Iran; and the cherry on top – earnings season starts tomorrow. Traders might be forgiven if they were a feeling a little jittery. This morning the stock market headed into triple digit negative territory, (the Dow was down 200 points earlier) only to get an afternoon jolt of good news; namely, there may be a deal to be had with Greece. So, let’s dig in there.   Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is in Brussels for an emergency Eurozone summit. Over the weekend, Greeks overwhelmingly voted to reject more austerity. Actually, they voted on a debt proposal that is no longer under consideration, but figuratively they voted against austerity. Greek banks remain closed and ATMs are reportedly running out of cash. The European Central Bank has maintained its emergency loan cap for Greek banks. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said there was no basis for reopening negotiations with Athens. European leaders have all made clear the onus …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

King v Burwell Plan B

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 2 = 17,764 SPX + 0.87 = 2080 NAS – 7 = 5013 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.42% OIL + 1.81 = 59.95   Each month the Labor Department reports on nonfarm payrolls, usually that report comes out on the first Friday of the month; a few days later they release the JOLT survey, Job Openings and Labor Turnover from the prior month. Job openings at US workplaces rose to 5.3 million in April from 5.1 million in March. That’s the most job openings in 14 years, and those job openings were spread among industries, including health care, retailers and providers of professional services. Now, keep in mind that this is the Job Openings from April, and we just saw the May Jobs report, which showed that the unemployment rate ticked up from 5.4% in April to 5.5% in May; and the reason the unemployment rate was higher is because more people entered the labor pool. Most of the nearly 400,000 new job seekers were under the age of 25.   While the number of job openings soared, employers are still taking their time filling them. Total hiring in April fell to 5 million from 5.1 million. The disparity between more openings and flat hiring suggests employers are being picky about new hires. Many companies say they are having difficulty finding qualified workers. They may …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

We’ll Know It When We See It

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-10-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS    Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 332 = 17,662 SPX – 35 = 2044 NAS – 82 = 4859 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.13% OIL – 1.71 = 48.29 GOLD – 5.40 = 1162.50 SILV – .11 = 15.72   Yesterday marked the 6 year anniversary of the bull market. Today is the 15th anniversary of the Nasdaq‘s all-time high. The Nasdaq has pulled in after briefly moving above the 5,000 level last week. The Nasdaq had been on a nice little run, so, for now support looks to be a long way away. Today the S&P 500 dropped below the 50 day moving average at 2061; that should have been an area of strong support.   Job openings in the United States rose 2.4% to 5 million in January and stood at a 14-year high. The Labor Department reports the number of people hired fell slightly to 5 million. So-called separations – layoffs, people fired, workers who quit – dipped to 4.82 million from 4.90 million.   The National Federation of Independent Business‘s small-business optimism index edged up to 98.0 in February, from 97.9 in January. Both readings are down from 100.4 in December. Although small-business owners remain upbeat, a growing percentage reports difficulty in finding workers with the right labor qualifications. By one measure, the skills shortage is the worst since 2006, but most business owners remain reluctant …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Jobs Report Friday

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-06-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 278 = 17,856 SPX – 29 = 2071 NAS – 55 = 4927 10 YR YLD + .13 = 2.24% OIL – 1.02 = 49.74 The first Friday of the month is all about jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the economy added 295,000 new jobs in February. The unemployment rate dropped from 5.7% to 5.5%. The results topped estimates of 235,000 jobs, and also beats the revised 239,000 reported for January (revised down from 257,000); and also up from 188,000 a year ago.   The estimates were lower, mainly because most of the country has been experiencing harsh winter weather, and on the West Coast there was a shutdown and a slowdown at the ports. None of that seemed to matter, and if you are thinking ahead, you might imagine that the economy will just keep getting stronger as the weather gets better.   Now, you might look at how Wall Street responded to this very good news about jobs and you might be scratching your head, you might even think Wall Street is opposed to honest, hardworking Americans. Well, maybe a little, but the reason for the sell-off is that a stronger economy means higher interest rates. Investors are looking and focusing entirely on what the Federal Reserve will do in the coming months. Effectively good news in this data point supports the notion …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Divergence

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-09-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 51 = 17,801 SPX – 0.49 = 2059 NAS + 25 = 4766 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.22% OIL + .80 = 63.85 GOLD + 27.80 = 1233.00 SILV + .73 = 17.21 We’ll start with economic news. The Labor Department reports there were 4.83 million job openings in October, up from 4.69 million job openings in September. The number of available jobs means workers are more likely to leave their current jobs in search of a better deal. The quit rate, the share of total employees opting to quit their jobs was 1.9% in October, roughly the same level it was just before 2007. With 9 million unemployed people in October, there were about 1.9 potential job seekers per opening. In October 2013, there were 11.14 million unemployed people or about 2.8 potential seekers per opening. The Commerce Department reports wholesale inventories increased 0.4%, despite an energy price-related decline in the value of petroleum stocks. September’s wholesale stocks were revised up to show a 0.4% gain. This might indicate that third quarter GDP could be revised slightly higher. The National Federation of Independent Business says small-business sentiment reached a seven-year high in November. The index rose 2 points to 98.1, the highest level since Feb. 2007, as expectations for business conditions in six months surged and expectations for real sales volumes also gained. While …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Dow Up, Oil Down, Quit Your Job

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-13-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 40 = 17,652 SPX + 1 = 2039 NAS + 5 = 4680 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.34% OIL – 2.79 = 74.39 GOLD + .20 = 1162.90 SILV – .01 = 15.77 Record high close for the Dow Industrials. The Nasdaq Composite hasn’t seen record highs since the spring of 2000, when it closed at 5048, which is just 368 points, or about a 7% move from here. If you were unlucky enough to have bought the PowerShares QQQ exchange-traded fund, an ETF that tracks that top 100 non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq, on March 10, 2000, you’d still be in the red on that investment. Tech companies are once again in a leadership role. While Microsoft, Apple and several other tech leaders of today are trading at higher prices than 15 years ago, Intel and Cisco are still well below their 2000 peak prices. Of course the largest company in market cap is Apple at $660 billion. Apple shares have surged more than 40% so far this year, creating more than $160 billion in market value for shareholders, which coincidentally is about the same market cap as IBM, which was once considered the big player in tech. Today, Microsoft passed Exxon to become the second largest company in terms of market capitalization. Exxon has a market cap of $400 billion; Microsoft is worth $408 billion. Exxon’s …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Thanks Hank

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-07-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 272 = 16,719 SPX – 29 = 1935 NAS – 69 = 4385 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.35% OIL – 1.91 = 88.43 GOLD + 1.50 = 1209.30 SILV – .16 = 17.29 The S&P 500 dropped below its 50-day moving average last week and has yet to move back above that level. Coincidentally, the S&P 500 has been sliding for a few weeks, going back to September 19, which was the day of the Alibaba IPO, just coincidentally. The Dow is also trading below its 50 day moving average. Welcome to the start of earnings season. In the past 3 months the US dollar has jumped by 8% against the euro. That makes American goods more expensive relative to European goods. And it wasn’t just the dollar against the Euro, but against a basket of foreign currencies. It is estimated that a 5% rise in the dollar versus the euro results in a drop of about $1 for full-year Standard & Poor’s 500 Index per-share earnings; current estimates for the S&P are running around $118. Partly because of the dollar and the related decline in oil prices, earnings estimates have seen one of the largest downward revisions over the last few years aside from the weather-beaten first quarter of this year. Earnings-per-share are projected to have grown 4.9% in the third quarter, that’s down from 7.8% earnings …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Apple Bites

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-09-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 97 = 17,013 SPX – 13 = 1988 NAS – 40 = 4552 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.50% OIL + .05 = 92.80 GOLD + .30 = 1256.80 SILV + .04 = 19.16 Today’s epiphany is courtesy of Apple; they unveiled not one but three new things. Let’s examine. The iPhone 6 is the new phone, and it is a little bit bigger than the old phone. And they even have an iPhone 6 plus, which is a little bit bigger. So, the new phones won’t fit in your pocket anymore. I know, it’s like the most totally incredible thing ever. The Apple Watch is smaller than the old phone; so small it can be strapped on your wrist. It even has a dial so older people will realize it is supposed to be a watch and not just a little phone strapped to your wrist. It is called the Apple Watch because iWatch was just a little too creepy. The third thing is Apple Pay, which is a payment processing service that has Apple partnering with American Express, MasterCard, and Visa so you can pay for purchases with a big iPhone 6 or an Apple Watch, just like you can pay for things with an American Express, MasterCard, or Visa credit card. The big difference is this is new technology, whereas the credit card is like 50 …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Everything You Need to Know About the Jobs Report

http://SINCLAIR_NOE_-_SEG_1_-_09-05-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review 09-05-2014 DOW + 67 = 17,137 SPX + 10 = 2007.71 (record) NAS + 20 = 4582 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.46% OIL – 1.00 = 93.45 GOLD + 7.50 = 1269.40 SILV + .13 = 19.29 The S&P 500 index closed at a record high; the Dow Industrials closed just short of a record high. The S&P 500 and the Dow recorded their fifth consecutive weekly gains. For the week, the Dow and the S&P each gained 0.2% and the Nasdaq rose 0.06%. Today is a jobs report Friday. In August, the economy added 142,000 net new jobs and the unemployment rate dropped to 6.1%. This was a weaker than expected report. The economy had been averaging more than 200,000 new jobs a month for the past 6 months. Economists expected somewhere around 220,000 to 230,000 new jobs. Employment gains for July and June were lowered by a combined 28,000; June was revised from 298,000 to 267,000, and the change for July was revised from 209,000 to 212,000. The August report will likely be revised as well. Each job report starts with an initial estimate on the first Friday of the month, followed by two revisions. The month of August is prone to sharp revisions; over the past 5 years, the difference between the first and third estimates have averaged more than 70,000 per month; and each of the …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Tuesday, July 09, 2013 – What’s It All About?

What’s It All About? by Sinclair Noe DOW + 75 = 15,300SPX + 11 = 1652NAS + 19 = 3504 10 YR YLD -.01 = 2.63%OIL + 1.38 = 104.52GOLD + 13.40 = 1251.70SILV + .18 = 19.36 It’s earnings reporting season. The stock market is feeling happy for the moment. Second quarter earnings are expected to be soft, but expectations have been ratcheted down, so there is potential for upside surprises. That’s the game that’s played on Wall Street to siphon a little bit of trading profit. Anywhere else, they’d call it price fixing. But this game of diminished expectations may have some basis in reality. The top line numbers more than likely suck. Analysts expect the 30 companies in the Dow Industrial Average to see revenue growth of just 0.7%; that number could be ratcheted down into negative territory; that follows a 0.6% drop in revenue in the first quarter. What do you call it when there are two consecutive quarters of economic contraction? Recession. That’s a bit of a non sequitur, but the logical conclusion is not too far removed from the premise. After all, we’re talking about 30 of the biggest, most powerful companies in the world and they are struggling to grow sales. They’re still reporting profits, but that comes from cost cutting, which tends to fall on the labor force. There are limits to cost cutting as a business strategy for growing profits. No worries. The S&P 500 closed above 1650 and looks poised …

READ MORE →