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Monday, April 29, 2013 – A Busy Week Heading in the Same Direction

A Busy Week Heading in the Same Direction by Sinclair Noe DOW + 106 = 14,818SPX + 11 = 1593NAS + 27 = 330710 YR YLD + .01 = 1.67%OIL + .58 = 93.58GOLD + 13.60 = 1477.50SILV + .55 = 24.69  The S&P 500 index ended at an all-time high. We have a celebration when the Dow Industrial Average closes at an all time high; no party for the S&P 500. I wish I could give you a valid reason for this but it defies logic. There is no law that says you can’t enjoy milk and cookies anyway. This week offers a packed economic calendar,with ISM manufacturing data Wednesday, and PMI manufacturing reports for the euro zone and China on Thursday. The week ends with Friday’s U.S. employment report, expected to show 150,000 new nonfarm payrolls in April; and the backdrop to all the information is last Friday’s initial report on first quarter GDP, which came in at 2.5%, short of the consensus forecast of 3%.  Also, we’ll compare and contrast this week’s news with last week’s reports out of Europe showing economic weakness in Germany as well really bad weakness in the peripheral countires where unemployment is rising from one awful record to another. In Spain, for example, the rate increased to 27.2%, with an even more stunning 57.2% rate among the young. In Greece, the unemployment rate tops 27% and the government is cutting thousands more jobs to qualify for more ECB bailout money. The European …

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Friday, March 08, 2013 – Jobs Report and Bad Banks

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click here or call 480-820-5877. Jobs Report and Bad Banks DOW + 67 = 14, 397SPX + 6 = 1551NAS + 12 = 324410 YR YLD +.07 = 2.06%OIL + .29 = 91.85GOLD + .60 = 1580.20SILV + .12 = 29.10 The Dow Industrial hit their fourth consecutive record high close. The S&P 500 is within 1% of record highs. The S&P is up for 6 straight days, and 9 out of the past 10 weeks. Year to date, the Dow is up 9.9 percent, while the S&P 500 is up 8.8 percent and the Nasdaq is up about 7.5 percent. The economy added 236,000 jobs in February. The unemployment rate fell from 7.9% to 7.7%. The number of jobs gained beat expectations by about 76,000. The unemployment rate is now at its lowest level since December of 2008. Part of the reason for the drop in the unemployment rate is that fewer people are counted as being in the labor pool, looking for a job; this is known as the participation rate and it dropped to 63.5%, matching a 32 year low. Still, this was a much stronger jobs report than we’ve seen in a while. There was improvement, but not enough. We haven’t yet seen the dramatic upswing that leads to a virtuous cycle of growth and truly low unemployment. The report showed …

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Monday, March 04, 2013 – The Strange Disconnect

I will be speaking at the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference April 5 & 6. Click here for more information or call 800-494-4149 or 480-820-5877. The Strange Disconnect by Sinclair Noe DOW + 38 = 14,127SPX + 7 = 1525NAS + 12 = 318210 YR YLD +.02 = 1.88%OIL – .62 = 90.06GOLD – 3.00 = 1574.80SILV – .06 = 28.62 It seemed like a long weekend, and then suddenly it was over. So, just to make sure we’re still on point, let’s start with a brief recap of last week. One week ago, there was widespread concern about the Italian elections, which ended in gridlock. Fifty-seven percent of the Italian vote went to parties that have vowed to tear up the European Union’s austerity script. It might send a signal of an end to economic reforms in Italy, that could undermine confidence in Italy, that could result in higher borrowing costs; which could result in a new bout of Euro-zone sovereign solvency fears, which could send markets lower until such fears are removed. In the US, Fed Chairman Bernanke testified on Capitol Hill that Fed stimulus would in fact continue into the foreseeable future, and the economy was doing much better, according to Bernanke. The housing and auto sectors and consumer sentiment data showed continuous improvements. The Fed will keep the free money spigot wide open and the banks will be flooded with cash, or some rough equivalent. If there was ever a good excuse to rally off a dip …

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Friday, February 01, 2013 – Jobs Report Friday

Jobs Report Friday by Sinclair Noe DOW + 149 = 14,009SPX + 15 = 1513NAS + 36 = 317910 YR YLD + .02 = 2.01%OIL + .12 = 97.61 GOLD + 3.80 = 1668.60SILV + .37 = 31.94 Today is a Jobs Report Friday. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 157,000 in January, and the unemployment rate inched higher to 7.9%. The headline number was below expectations, which had been running from 170,000 to 185,000 new jobs. However, employment figures for November and December were revised up sharply. November was revised from 161,000 to 247,000, a gain of 86,000; so it turns out that job growth immediately before the election was actually under-estimated; December was revised from 155,000 to 196,000, a gain of 41,000. In January, job gains occurred in retail trade, construction, health care, and wholesale trade, while employment edged down in transportation and warehousing. Exactly what this pace of job growth means for the unemployment rate depends on whether many of the workers sitting on the sidelines decide to join, or rejoin, or can find a place in the labor force. Right now, labor force participation rates, the share of people of working age who are either working or looking for jobs, is hovering around 30-year lows. Only those who are actively looking for work are counted as unemployed, so if the labor force participation stays low, even modest job growth can cause the unemployment rate to fall quite a bit. The decline in the labor force participation …

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Monday, January 28, 2013 – What’s Going On

What’s Going On by Sinclair Noe DOW – 14 = 13,881SPX – 2 = 1500NAS + 4 = 315410 YR YLD + .03 = 1.97%OIL + .69 = 96.57GOLD – 4.80 = 1655.50SILV – .34 = 30.94 This will be a big week of economic reports, including: the Federal Reserve concludes its first policy meeting of 2013 on Wednesday; the monthly jobs report on Friday (look for a gain of 165,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 7.8%); earnings reporting season continues according to expectations; tomorrow brings an update on fourth quarter GDP; later in the week we’ll see reports on incomes, spending, and sentiment. Today we learned orders for durable goods, the big-ticket items made in the US, increased 4.6% in December, fanned by a big batch of bookings for military and commercial aircraft. Demand also improved for most other makers of long-lasting goods, suggesting that US manufacturers could be poised for a modest rebound in 2013. Then Caterpillar issued a less than bright outlook for 2013, which put a damper on the sector. Toyota Motors retook the title of world’s largest auto maker, posting a 23% gain in global sales to a record 9.75 million vehicles in 2012. General Motors moved to second place in global sales at 9.29 million; Volkswagen was in third place with 9.07 million sales. The National Association of Realtors reports pending home sales fell 4.3% in December, with low inventory cutting results. The trade group’s pending-home-sales index declined to 101.7 …

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Friday, December 7, 2012 – A Date Which Will Live in Infamy, Plus the Jobs Report

A Date Which Will Live in Infamy, Plus the Jobs Report by Sinclair Noe DOW + 81 = 13,155SPX + 4 = 1418 NAS – 11 = 297810 YR YLD +.05 = 1.63%OIL – .27 = 85.99 GOLD + 4.50 = 1704.50SILV + .08 = 33.11 Today marks the 71st anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor. There were of course, memorials in Hawaii and around the country. I’ve seen a few of the pictures. Each year the number of Pearl Harbor survivors that attend these memorials, their number grows smaller and their ranks thin. If you know a veteran of World War II, be sure to take time to recognize their stories, be sure to say thanks. Today’s major economic data was the monthly jobs report; widely expected to be weak due to the effects of Hurricane Sandy. Instead, it came in relatively strong. The headline numbers: the economy added 146,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate dropped to 7.7%, a four year low. The Labor Department claimed that the effect of Sandy on the report was minimal, saying in a statement, “Our analysis suggests that Hurricane Sandy did not substantively impact the national employment and unemployment estimates for November.” In other words, we should not look at this report as surprisingly good given the effect of the hurricane. Rather, the Labor Department claims that the jobs numbers should be analyzed without taking the storm into account at all. And by that standard, not only were the job …

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Friday, November 2, 2012 – Jobs, Jobs, and More Jobs

Jobs, Jobs, and More Jobsby Sinclair Noe 11022012 Script DOW – 139 = 13,093SPX – 13 = 1414NAS – 37 = 298210 YR YLD +.01 = 1.73% OIL – 1.98 = 87.58GOLD – 38.10 = 1677.90SILV – 1.35 = 31.01 The big economic news of the day is the October jobs report. The Labor Department says the economy added 171,000 jobs last month, and they revised prior months to show even more job gains. The unemployment rate rose to 7.9%, as more people entered the labor pool. Some 578,000 people entered the labor force in September, according to the household survey, with 410,000 saying they found work. The discrepancy led to the slight uptick in the unemployment rate. The professional-services sector created 51,000 jobs, health care added 31,000, retail gained 36,000 and leisure and hospitality companies hired 28,000 workers, manufacturers added 13,000 jobs after shedding workers in the prior two months. Altogether, the private sector added 184,000 jobs, with government subtracting 13,000 from the final total. Any jump in jobs is good for housing. While overall construction added 17,000 jobs in September, residential-building construction employment fell by 2,000. Residential specialty contractor jobs increased by 6,700, which speaks to the real root of today’s housing recovery. All-cash investors are leading the gains; they buy distressed properties and then repair and remodel them to turn them into rentals. It’s no wonder remodelers are seeing greater gains than the home builders. Companies also hired more employees in September and August than previously estimated. …

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A Raft of Reports by Sinclair Noe DOW + 136 = 13,232SPX + 15 = 1427NAS + 42 = 302010 YR YLD +.03 = 1.71%OIL +.65 = 88.48GOLD – 5.20 = 1716.00SILV un = 32.26 We have a drove of economic data to cover today; a mass of intelligence; a flock of facts; a legion of lowdowns; a swarm of information; and we’ll sort through the stories and try to make sense of it all. Of course, tomorrow we’ll get the big report on the monthly jobs picture for October. Friday’s jobs report is expected to show non-farm employers added just 125,000 jobs last month – not enough to prevent the jobless rate from rising a tenth of a point to 7.9 percent. The unemployment rate fell to a near four-year low in September at 7.8%. Today, we heard some hints about tomorrow’s non-farm labor report. Automatic Data Processing, the payroll processor, always releases their report prior to the government’s report. The ADP report is not a particularly good indicator of the BLS report. ADP shows private employers added 158,000 workers last month. There is some evidence of labor market improvement. It is not totally convincing yet but overall the message is positive. Weekly initial unemployment claims declined to 363,000 for the week ending October 27, down 9,000 from the previous week. Unemployment claims topped out over 650,000 back in the first quarter of 2009 and have been moving mostly sideways this year, but are near the cycle bottom. Don’t …

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Friday, October, 5, 2012 – Slow, Steady, Weak, Uncooked Growth in Jobs Report

Slow, Steady, Weak, Uncooked Growth in Jobs Report by Sinclair Noe DOW + 34 = 13,610SPX -0.47 = 1460NAS – 13 = 3136 10 YR YLD +.07 = 1.73%OIL – 1.79 = 89.92GOLD – 9.00 = 1782.30 SILV – .46 = 34.61PLAT – 13.00 = 1710.00 The first Friday of each month brings the jobs report and it is always important economic data. This is the first Friday in October, in an election year; so, it is really big news. We’ve discussed at great length that the jobs report is imperfect; even after revisions, the report is imperfect. Still, the report provides a manner of comparison, and it is the best we have. It provides an apples to apples comparison. The economy added 114,000 jobs in September. The unemployment rate fell to 7.8% from 8.1% The unemployment rate is the lowest since 2009, and the first time the rate has dropped under 8% during the Obama administration. The private sector has now added jobs for 31 consecutive months. Still, 114,000 new jobs would have to be considered weak growth. The best guesses are that the economy would have to generate at least 250,000 jobs each month for several years to reduce unemployment to around 6%. So, the first question is why did the unemployment rate drop when the number of new jobs was only showing weak growth? The Labor Department revised employment figures for August and July to show somewhat faster job growth in late summer, mostly because of government …

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Thursday, October 4, 2012 – If I Didn’t Hear It, Did It Happen?

If I Didn’t Hear It, Did It Happen? By Sinclair Noe DOW + 80 = 13,573SPX + 10 = 1461NAS + 14 = 314910 YR YLD +.04 = 1.66%OIL + 3.47 = 91.61GOLD + 11.30 = 1791.30SILV + .33 = 35.07PLAT + 31.00 = 1725.00 Initial claims for state unemployment benefits climbed 4,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 367,000, the Labor Department. But that followed a drop of 22,000 and a four-week average, which offers a view of trends, held steady at 375,000. The monthly jobs report is tomorrow morning. Today, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the FOMC’s September 13meeting. Of course, we know the Fed launched QE to Infinity and Beyond, or at least $40 billion dollars a month in mortgage-backed securities, until such time as we see maximum employment or until inflation becomes a problem. From the meeting minutes we learn that there might be limits on QE. The report says: “Most participants agreed that the use of numerical thresholds could be useful in providing more clarity about the conditionality of the forward guidance but thought that further work would be needed to address the related communications challenges.” In other words, there might be limits to acceptable unemployment. Maybe 7%, maybe 5%? We don’t know. And there might be limits to acceptable inflation. Maybe 2%, maybe 3%? We don’t know. We would like to know. If we knew, we could bet on the numbers. Unemployment at 8.2% and inflation at 1.5% equals risk on. Unemployment …

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