Financial Review

It Was All Yellow

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-31-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-31-2015 DOW – 114 = 16,528 SPX – 16 = 1972 NAS – 51 = 4776 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.20% OIL + 2.80 = 48.02 GOLD + .60 = 1135.40 SILV + .04 = 14.73   Both the Dow and S&P had five days of gains or losses of more than 2 percent in August, making it the most volatile month in nearly four years. In August, the S&P lost 6.3 percent, the Dow fell 6.6 percent and the Nasdaq declined 6.9 percent. As far as Augusts go, this has been the worst performance for the Dow in 17 years. Overall it was the sixth worst monthly performance for the Dow and the worst since May 2010, when the Dow dropped 7.9%. For the S&P 500, it was the worst August since 2001; all 10 of the major S&P sectors were down for the month.   Investors are still divided over whether the Federal Reserve will hike rates next month, with Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer adding to the doubts in Jackson Hole over the weekend, saying: “At this moment, we are following developments in the Chinese economy and their actual and potential effects on other economies even more closely than usual.” Fischer was careful to announce he wasn’t signaling an impending rate rise, but the remarks suggest a September move hasn’t been ruled out of the FOMC’s next gathering. …

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Financial Review

The July Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-07-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 12.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-07-2015 DOW – 46 = 17,373 SPX – 5 = 2077 NAS – 12 = 5043 10 YR YLD – .06 = 2.17% OIL – .79 = 43.87 GOLD + 4.30 = 1094.80 SILV + .15 = 14.91   The economy added 215,000 net new jobs in July. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.3%, the lowest level in 7 years. The May and June reports were revised slightly higher, employers added 6,000 more jobs in May and 8,000 more in June than previously estimated. The U.S. has added an average of 235,000 jobs a month since May, up sharply from a 195,000 pace in the first quarter. Last year, the economy added 240,000 jobs a month on average between January and July. This year that figure is 178,000.   Most industries added workers, with the notable exception of the mining/logging sector which includes jobs in energy or oil fields, which lost 4,000 jobs. Professional and business services added 40,000, education added 37,000, retailers hired 36,000 people, leisure and hospitality gained 30,000, health-care companies boosted payrolls by 28,000, financial firms tacked on 17,000 workers, transportation and warehousing increased by over 14,000, wholesale trade added more than 6,000, and manufacturers increased employment by 15,000. Construction added 6,000 jobs, but it is interesting to break out this data. The slump in energy sector investment continues to lead to job loss in …

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Financial Review

Preview

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-06-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-06-2015   DOW – 120 = 17,419 SPX – 16 = 2083 NAS – 83 = 5056 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.23% OIL – .31 = 44.84 GOLD + 5.00 = 1090.50 SILV + .06 = 14.76   Jobless claims rose by 3,000 to 270,000 in the week ended August 1. Firings are at historically low levels as employers hold on to more workers. More hiring would help convince Federal Reserve policy makers that the economy can withstand an increase in the benchmark interest rate this year. Claims have remained below the 300,000 level since March.   Outplacement consult Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports employers announced 105,696 layoffs last month. A year ago, U.S. companies announced plans to cut 46,887 jobs. The Army accounted for more than half of the total with 57,000 cuts expected over the next two years. The technology sector also contributed to July’s announced job reductions, with computer and electronics companies announcing 18,891 layoffs in July.   Tomorrow is the big monthly jobs report; and it probably represents the most important data the Fed will consider before the September 17 FOMC meeting. And the Fed will need to communicate any action beforehand to avoid disruption in the financial markets. We may be seeing a rate hike being priced in right now. The major averages came off session lows in the close. The …

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Financial Review

Thursday Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 27 = 17,730 SPX – 0.64 = 2076 NAS – 3 = 5009 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.39% OIL – .03 = 56.93 GOLD – 2.60 = 1166.70 SILV + .13 = 15.78   Normally, we get the jobs report on the first Friday of the month, but the stock and bond markets will be closed tomorrow for the 4th of  July holiday; so, it’s a Jobs Report Thursday.   The US economy created 223,000 new jobs in June. The unemployment rate dropped from 5.5% to 5.3%; that’s the lowest level in 7 years. Employment gains for May and April were revised lower by a combined 60,000.  Most estimates were calling for 225,000 new jobs last month, so today’s report was right in line. Total employment is now 3.5 million above the previous peak.  Total employment is up 12.2 million from the employment recession low. The economy has produced at least 200,000 jobs in 13 of the last 15 months.  The economy added 2.9 million jobs in the past 12 months.   The participation rate – the percentage of workers in a job or actively seeking a job – dropped three ticks to 62.6%, as 432,000 people dropped out of the labor pool. And this explains why the unemployment rate dropped to 5.3%, because fewer people were looking for work.  Part of the reason may be demographics, …

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Financial Review

Good Jobs Report, Not Liftoff

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-05-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 56 = 17,849 SPX – 3 = 2092 NAS + 9 = 5068 10 YR YLD + .10 = 2.40% OIL + .96 = 58.96 GOLD – 4.10 = 1173.30 SILV + .05 = 16.23   The economy added 280,000 jobs in May. The unemployment rate increased to 5.5% as more people entered the labor force. Average hourly earnings rose by 8 cents to $24.96. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.3 percent. March and April were revised up by a combined 32,000 jobs. The headline of 280,000 jobs added in May is the strongest number since December. April’s numbers were revised down by 2,000 to 221,000, and March was revised up from 85,000 to 119,000 (so it went from very bad to just a little bad). The economy has added an average of 217,000 jobs a month so far this year. Still, job creation has also slowed from the second half of 2014, when the economy added an average of 281,000 jobs a month. The US economy has recorded 63 straight months of private sector jobs growth. Previous record was 51 months from 1996-2000. Total employment is now up 12 million from the employment recession low and up 3.3 million from the previous peak. Private employment is up 12.6 million from the employment recession low and up 3.8 million from the previous peak. Typically, …

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Financial Review

Tomorrow

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-04-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 170 = 17,905 SPX – 18 = 2095 NAS – 40 = 5059 10 YR YLD – .06 = 2.31% OIL – 1.66 = 57.98 GOLD – 8.60 = 1177.40 SILV – .40 = 16.18   The sun will come out tomorrow, beyond that we don’t have much certainty. Tomorrow could be a very interesting day in the markets. Greece is scheduled to make a debt payment to the IMF; that will not happen. OPEC meets tomorrow in Vienna; they are expected to leave the current production ceiling of 30 million barrels per day unchanged. And in the US, we have a Jobs Report Friday; the Labor Department is expected to report the economy added about 225,000 new jobs in May and the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 5.4%. Any one of these three events could result in major market moves. So buckle your seat belts.   This morning the Labor Department reported the number of people seeking unemployment benefits at the end of May remained near a 15-year low. Some 276,000 Americans filed initial jobless claims in the period running from May 24 to May 30, a week that included the Memorial Day holiday. That was down 8,000 from the prior week.   In addition to the headline numbers in the Jobs Report, we will be looking to see if wages are actually increasing; …

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Financial Review

A Perfect Gift

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-03-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 64 = 18,076 SPX + 4 = 2114 NAS + 22 = 5099 10 YR YLD + .10 = 2.37% OIL – 1.68 = 59.58 GOLD – 7.70 = 1186.00 SILV – .27 = 16.58   The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in April on a drop in imports. The Commerce Department said the trade gap narrowed to $40 billion from March’s revised deficit of $50 billion. The 26 percent drop in the April trade deficit was the largest decrease since early 2009 and reflects a surge in imports in March following the end of a West Coast ports labor dispute.   Service industries expanded in May at the slowest pace in 13 months. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index, which includes an array of industries from real estate to dining, declined to 55.7 from April’s 57.8. Readings above 50 signal expansion. Limited growth in orders reflects an American consumer who has been saving the extra cash from low gasoline prices and rising employment rather than spending it. Arts and entertainment, real-estate firms and rental companies led the list of the 15 non-manufacturing industries that reported growth in May. Mining, which includes oil extraction, contracted. An index of employment in service industries dropped to 55.3 in May from 56.7.   Payrolls processor ADP reports private employers added 201,000 jobs in May, the most since January. The ADP data came …

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Financial Review

April Jobs Report in Moderation

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-08-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 267 = 18,191 SPX + 28 = 2116 NAS + 58 = 5003 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.15% OIL + .49 = 59.43 GOLD SILV   The economy added 223,000 new jobs in April. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.4% from 5.5% to mark the lowest level since mid-2008. The results were fairly close to estimates. Not too much, not too little. Wall Street actually liked the “Goldilocks” report and the Dow jumped to triple digit gains; the bond market, which is usually only happy when it rains saw strong initial selling, but then pushed bond yields slightly lower, and the dollar spiked briefly then held near lower levels. Once again we are reminded that the jobs report is probably the single most important economic report to follow because it affects almost everything else in the economy.   The number of jobs added in March was revised down to 85,000 from 126,000, reflecting the smallest increase in almost three years. The February jobs report was revised higher by 2,000 from 264,000 to 266,000. Payrolls for February and March were revised down by a combined 39,000. Typically, revisions add to prior months numbers. In 2014, for example, the government upgraded every monthly employment report except for one to show stronger job creation that originally estimated. The past three months have delivered average job gains of just over …

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Financial Review

Just Around the Corner

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-06-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 117 = 17,880 SPX + 13 = 2080 NAS + 30 = 4917 10 YR YLD un = 1.90% OIL + 2.84 = 51.98 GOLD + 12.00 = 1215.00 SILV + .20 = 17.07   The jobs report on Friday showed the economy added 126,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in March, the slowest monthly increase since December 2013, and the unemployment rate held at 5.5%. It was a bad jobs report; it raises concerns about a spring revival in the economy and should give the Fed cause to be more patient in initiating rate hikes.   New York Fed President William Dudley said the timing of interest rate hikes are uncertain and the Federal Reserve must watch that the surprising recent weakness in the economy does not foreshadow a more substantial slowdown, especially in the labor market. Dudley said: “It will be important to monitor developments to determine whether the softness in the March labor market report evident on Friday foreshadows a more substantial slowing in the labor market than I currently anticipate.” Still, Dudley said the weak economic data likely reflected “temporary factors to a significant degree.”   Maybe. There is still some question of whether the markets are pricing in higher rates. You can understand why markets might be slow to accept higher rates, like the kids in the back of the station wagon asking “are we …

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Financial Review

Lousy Good Friday Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-03-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe   The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq were closed in observance of Good Friday. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange was open, for a holiday shortened session, so there was some trading in equity index futures, and interest-rate and forex futures, and also some light trading in the bond markets. Good Friday is not a federally recognized holiday, and so the monthly jobs report was issued on schedule. We’ll just have to wait until Monday to see how the markets react.   It was a lousy jobs report. The economy generated just 126,000 new jobs last month, marking the smallest gain since the end of 2013; estimates had been calling for twice as many new jobs. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5%. Employment gains for February and January were revised lower by a combined 69,000. The result: The increase in hiring in the first three months of 2015 has slowed dramatically to an average of 197,000. While the pace of hiring this year is still fairly decent, it doesn’t come close to matching average job gains of 289,000 in the fourth quarter.   This was just one lousy jobs report, and that does not constitute a trend but it might reflect a slowdown that we’ve been seeing in other economic data, including consumer spending patterns, a slowdown in the energy sector, sluggish business investment; and don’t forget the bad …

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