Financial Review

Buckle Your Seat Belts

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-05-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:19 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 331 = 17,501 SPX – 37 = 2020 NAS – 74 = 4652 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.04% OIL – 2.82 = 49.87 GOLD + 15.40 = 1206.20 SILV + .40 = 16.29 If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall. That is the old saying and most people think the Santa Claus rally covers the month of December, or maybe the week leading to Christmas; actually, the rally time frame covers the last 5 trading days of the year and the first 2 trading days of the New Year, which would include today. And today the markets were down; the worst day in 3 months. The Santa Claus rally is really an indicator. In 1999-2000 rally timeframe suffered a horrendous 4% loss. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, on January 14, 2000, the Dow started its 33-month 37.8% slide to the October 2002 midterm election year bottom. NASDAQ cracked eight weeks later falling 37.3% in 10 weeks, eventually dropping 78% by October 2002. Saddam Hussein cancelled Christmas by invading Kuwait in 1990. Energy prices and Middle East terror woes may have grounded Santa in 2004. In 2007 the third worst reading since 1950 was recorded as subprime mortgages and their derivatives lead to a full-blown financial crisis and the second worst bear market in history. For the past 4 trading sessions, …

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Financial Review

Fed Should Avoid Knee Jerk Hikes

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-08-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 106 = 17,852 SPX – 15 = 2060 NAS – 40 = 4740 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.26% OIL – 2.80 = 63.04 GOLD + 11.10 = 1205.20 SILV + .09 = 16.48 No records today. Energy stocks pulled the market lower; 42 of the 43 energy stocks in the S&P 500 posted losses today. Falling oil prices have also hit exchange rates of energy producers, especially in emerging markets. Russia’s ruble continues to slide, and an index tracking 20 key exchange rates has fallen to levels last seen more than a decade ago, down 10.2 percent this year and headed for the biggest annual slide since 2008. While some developing nations may welcome a weaker currency because it makes their exports more competitive, for others the pace of decline is destabilizing their economies by fueling inflation and eroding investor confidence. While the International Monetary Fund expects developing economies to pick up next year, it still sees them falling short of their longer-term growth. The IMF predicts expansion of 4.95 percent across emerging markets in 2015, up from a forecast of 4.43 percent this year and compared with average growth of 6.44 percent over the past decade. Let’s start with a quick recap of Friday’s jobs report. The economy added 321,000 jobs in November, well above estimates, the highest monthly gain since January 2010 and …

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Financial Review

November Jobs Report – Progress Not Perfection

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-05-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:19 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 58 = 17,985 SPX + 3 = 2075 NAS + 11 = 4780 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.31% OIL – 1.12 = 65.69 GOLD – 15.50 = 1192.00 SILV – .20 = 16.39 Record highs for the Dow and the S&P 500. For the past week I’ve been telling you we could see a wild number on the jobs report. We did. The economy added 321,000 net new jobs in November. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.8%. Job gains for September and October were revised higher. September was revised from 256,000 to 271,000, and the change for October was revised from 214,000 to 243,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 44,000 more than previously reported. And that pushes the 3 month average up to about 277,000 jobs per month. November marked the biggest monthly jobs gain since January 2012. So far in 2014 the economy has gained an average of 241,000 jobs a month. This was the tenth consecutive month of job gains greater than 200,000, and an all-time record 50th consecutive month of job gains. Total employment is now 1.7 million above the previous peak. Total employment is up 10.4 million from the employment recession low. So far this year, the United States has added some 2.65 million jobs, putting the country on track for its best year …

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Financial Review

Game On

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-04-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 12 = 17,900 SPX – 2 = 2071 NAS – 5 = 4769 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.26% OIL – .61 = 66.77 GOLD – 3.10 = 1207.50 SILV + .06 = 16.59 Seven of the 10 main industries in the S&P 500 declined. Energy companies slumped 0.8%, following three days of gains. Chevron slid 1.3%, the most in the Dow, and Exxon Mobil declined 0.6%. Crude fell 18% last month and moves of that magnitude cannot be attributed to normal markets following supply and demand. There is manipulation in the oil market, and the question is really whether it will end well. Initial jobless claims fell 17,000 in the week ended Nov. 29 to 294,000. In the prior week, new filings hit 314,000, the first reading above 300,000 since early September. Tomorrow is the monthly jobs report and the guestimates are calling for 230,000 new jobs added and the unemployment rate steady at 5.8%. The November jobs reports are subject to some revisions, so don’t be surprised if that guesstimate is wildly off base. When the jobs report surprises to the upside, the S&P trades up two-thirds of the time, with growth sectors like Industrials outperforming. When jobs miss, gold does well. We’ll dig into the report tomorrow, but some of the important bits of data we will track includes where wages are going. …

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Financial Review

Jobs Report Friday

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-07-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS[powerpress Financial Review DOW + 19 = 17,573 SPX + 0.71 = 2031 NAS – 5 = 4632 10 YR YLD – .06 = 2.31% OIL + .60 = 78.51 GOLD + 36.50 = 1178.80 SILV + .32 = 15.85 The economy added 214,000 net new jobs in October. The unemployment rate dropped from 5.9% to 5.8%. The 5.8 percent official unemployment rate is the lowest since the summer of 2008. The August report was revised higher to 203,000 and the September report was revised higher to 256,000; for a net increase of 31,000 jobs added from revisions. Employment is now up 2.64 million year-over-year, and up 2.3 million year to date. So far in 2014 the US has gained an average of 229,000 jobs a month, the fastest pace since 1999. October was the ninth consecutive month of 200,000 or more jobs gained, and that hasn’t happened since 1994. Total employment is up 10 million from the employment recession low and up 1.3 million from the previous peak; although it should be noted that full-time employment has not returned to the previous peak, while part-time employment is quite a bit higher than the peak. Private employment is up 10.6 million from the employment recession low. This latest report represents 56 consecutive months of private-sector job growth, which represents the longest streak in US history, but it isn’t the strongest streak of job growth. …

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Financial Review

September Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-03-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 208 = 17,009 SPX + 21 = 1967 NAS + 45 = 4475 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.44% OIL – 1.31 = 89.70 GOLD – 23.60 = 1191.70 SILV – .24 = 16.96 There is an old saying in the markets, “Sell Rosh Hashana, Buy Yom Kippur”, and when Yom Kippur falls on the first Friday of the month and coincides with a strong monthly jobs report, there is wisdom in the adage. Each month we focus on the jobs report and try to tell you everything you need to know; let’s go. The economy added 248,000 net new jobs in September. The unemployment rate dropped from 6.1% to 5.9%, falling below the 6% level for the first time since July 2008. Most estimates had called for job gains in the range of 210,000 to 220,000. In August the jobs report was far less than expected, coming in at just 142,000 jobs, however, today the August report was revised up to 180,000. And the July number was revised higher from 212,000 to 243,000. So, the two month revisions added a combined 69,000 more jobs than previously reported. The gain in payrolls over the last six months was the strongest for any six-month period since before the 2007-09 recession. Employment is now up 2.63 million year-over-year. The economy has added 2,040,00 jobs year to date. At the current pace, …

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Financial Review

Strange Days Indeed

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-02-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 3 = 16,801 SPX + 0.01 = 1946 NAS + 8 = 4430 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.43% OIL + .59 = 91.32 GOLD + 1.30 = 1215.30 SILV – .08 = 17.20 The Dow Industrial dropped about 130 points in early trading, but then recovered, mainly In economic news: The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 287,000. Separate data showed small businesses hiring workers at the fastest pace in 8 months. The National Federation of Independent Business said its monthly survey of its members found they added an average of 0.24 workers per firm last month, on a seasonally adjusted basis. Tomorrow the government will report on non-farm payrolls for September; we’re looking for about 220,000 net new jobs and the unemployment rate to hold near 6.1%. A report from the Commerce Department showed new orders for factory goods posted their biggest decline on record in August. Factory orders dropped 10.1%, following a 10.5% increase in July; the wild swings are attributed to orders for airplanes. Stripping out transportation orders, new orders were down a more modest 0.1%. Since June, the European Central Bank has lowered the interest rate on bank deposits parked at the ECB to negative territory, a first for this central bank, and added new lending and private-asset purchase programs. Today, the …

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Financial Review

Fluctuations

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-01-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 238 = 16,804 SPX – 26 = 1946 NAS – 71 = 4422 10 YR YLD – .10 = 2.40% OIL – .43 = 90.73 GOLD + 4.30 = 1214.00 SILV + .20 = 17.28 Yesterday, we talked about third quarter results. Most of the stock indices were down in September but still slightly positive for the third quarter. Today wiped out the third quarter gains. Why? Well, that’s always fun; the headlines offer a plethora of reasons, including “global worries” or maybe it’s a “market top” or “geopolitical hotspots” or “commodity crash” or maybe it’s just the start of a “rocky October”. I don’t claim to know why the markets dropped today, or any given day. I can read a chart, and I can identify patterns, but there are no guarantees. We follow macroeconomics and we analyze company P&Ls, but there are no guarantees. We do not get stuck in cheerleader mode like the talking heads on TV business shows, nor do we follow the perma-bears. Markets fluctuate; to paraphrase a line from J.P. Morgan, or maybe John Rockefeller. “Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.” That’s a quote from Warrant Buffet. We don’t yet know whether this is folly or a trend. We’ll just have to listen to the markets. The Institute for Supply Management’s index …

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Financial Review

Everything You Need to Know About the Jobs Report

http://SINCLAIR_NOE_-_SEG_1_-_09-05-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review 09-05-2014 DOW + 67 = 17,137 SPX + 10 = 2007.71 (record) NAS + 20 = 4582 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.46% OIL – 1.00 = 93.45 GOLD + 7.50 = 1269.40 SILV + .13 = 19.29 The S&P 500 index closed at a record high; the Dow Industrials closed just short of a record high. The S&P 500 and the Dow recorded their fifth consecutive weekly gains. For the week, the Dow and the S&P each gained 0.2% and the Nasdaq rose 0.06%. Today is a jobs report Friday. In August, the economy added 142,000 net new jobs and the unemployment rate dropped to 6.1%. This was a weaker than expected report. The economy had been averaging more than 200,000 new jobs a month for the past 6 months. Economists expected somewhere around 220,000 to 230,000 new jobs. Employment gains for July and June were lowered by a combined 28,000; June was revised from 298,000 to 267,000, and the change for July was revised from 209,000 to 212,000. The August report will likely be revised as well. Each job report starts with an initial estimate on the first Friday of the month, followed by two revisions. The month of August is prone to sharp revisions; over the past 5 years, the difference between the first and third estimates have averaged more than 70,000 per month; and each of the …

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Financial Review

Friday, June 06, 2014 – Jobs Report Friday

Jobs Report Friday by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 88 = 16,924 SPX + 8 = 1949 NAS + 25 = 4321 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.59% OIL + .31 = 102.79 GOLD – .90 = 1253.30 SILV – .02 = 19.11   Another record high close for the Dow Industrial Average and the S&P 500.   It’s said that it takes a war to end a war; 70 years ago, 150,000 soldiers invaded Normandy, and it’s estimated that about 4,400 lost their lives in the biggest military assault in history, D-Day. There were ceremonies on the beach today, as well as locations around the world, to honor the soldiers lost and the veterans still with us; their numbers are dwindling with the passage of time, but about 3,000 made the pilgrimage to Normandy today.  For the rest of us, it’s hard to imagine what happened 70 years ago, but whatever difficulties we may face in our day to day lives seem small compared with what those men faced. This is a special day, one that should never be forgotten.   Each month we analyze the jobs report. The jobs number came in about as expected. Non-farm payrolls added 217,000 jobs in May. The unemployment rate, which is drawn from a different survey of households, remained unchanged at 6.3%.   April’s employment numbers were revised down to 282,000 jobs added from 288,000. March payroll figures were not revised, remaining at 203,000 jobs added. This is the fourth consecutive …

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