Financial Review

A Perfect Gift

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-03-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 64 = 18,076 SPX + 4 = 2114 NAS + 22 = 5099 10 YR YLD + .10 = 2.37% OIL – 1.68 = 59.58 GOLD – 7.70 = 1186.00 SILV – .27 = 16.58   The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in April on a drop in imports. The Commerce Department said the trade gap narrowed to $40 billion from March’s revised deficit of $50 billion. The 26 percent drop in the April trade deficit was the largest decrease since early 2009 and reflects a surge in imports in March following the end of a West Coast ports labor dispute.   Service industries expanded in May at the slowest pace in 13 months. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index, which includes an array of industries from real estate to dining, declined to 55.7 from April’s 57.8. Readings above 50 signal expansion. Limited growth in orders reflects an American consumer who has been saving the extra cash from low gasoline prices and rising employment rather than spending it. Arts and entertainment, real-estate firms and rental companies led the list of the 15 non-manufacturing industries that reported growth in May. Mining, which includes oil extraction, contracted. An index of employment in service industries dropped to 55.3 in May from 56.7.   Payrolls processor ADP reports private employers added 201,000 jobs in May, the most since January. The ADP data …

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Financial Review

April Jobs Report in Moderation

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-08-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 267 = 18,191 SPX + 28 = 2116 NAS + 58 = 5003 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.15% OIL + .49 = 59.43 GOLD SILV   The economy added 223,000 new jobs in April. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.4% from 5.5% to mark the lowest level since mid-2008. The results were fairly close to estimates. Not too much, not too little. Wall Street actually liked the “Goldilocks” report and the Dow jumped to triple digit gains; the bond market, which is usually only happy when it rains saw strong initial selling, but then pushed bond yields slightly lower, and the dollar spiked briefly then held near lower levels. Once again we are reminded that the jobs report is probably the single most important economic report to follow because it affects almost everything else in the economy.   The number of jobs added in March was revised down to 85,000 from 126,000, reflecting the smallest increase in almost three years. The February jobs report was revised higher by 2,000 from 264,000 to 266,000. Payrolls for February and March were revised down by a combined 39,000. Typically, revisions add to prior months numbers. In 2014, for example, the government upgraded every monthly employment report except for one to show stronger job creation that originally estimated. The past three months have delivered average job gains of just …

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Financial Review

Just Around the Corner

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-06-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 117 = 17,880 SPX + 13 = 2080 NAS + 30 = 4917 10 YR YLD un = 1.90% OIL + 2.84 = 51.98 GOLD + 12.00 = 1215.00 SILV + .20 = 17.07   The jobs report on Friday showed the economy added 126,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in March, the slowest monthly increase since December 2013, and the unemployment rate held at 5.5%. It was a bad jobs report; it raises concerns about a spring revival in the economy and should give the Fed cause to be more patient in initiating rate hikes.   New York Fed President William Dudley said the timing of interest rate hikes are uncertain and the Federal Reserve must watch that the surprising recent weakness in the economy does not foreshadow a more substantial slowdown, especially in the labor market. Dudley said: “It will be important to monitor developments to determine whether the softness in the March labor market report evident on Friday foreshadows a more substantial slowing in the labor market than I currently anticipate.” Still, Dudley said the weak economic data likely reflected “temporary factors to a significant degree.”   Maybe. There is still some question of whether the markets are pricing in higher rates. You can understand why markets might be slow to accept higher rates, like the kids in the back of the station wagon asking “are …

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Financial Review

Lousy Good Friday Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-03-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe   The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq were closed in observance of Good Friday. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange was open, for a holiday shortened session, so there was some trading in equity index futures, and interest-rate and forex futures, and also some light trading in the bond markets. Good Friday is not a federally recognized holiday, and so the monthly jobs report was issued on schedule. We’ll just have to wait until Monday to see how the markets react.   It was a lousy jobs report. The economy generated just 126,000 new jobs last month, marking the smallest gain since the end of 2013; estimates had been calling for twice as many new jobs. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5%. Employment gains for February and January were revised lower by a combined 69,000. The result: The increase in hiring in the first three months of 2015 has slowed dramatically to an average of 197,000. While the pace of hiring this year is still fairly decent, it doesn’t come close to matching average job gains of 289,000 in the fourth quarter.   This was just one lousy jobs report, and that does not constitute a trend but it might reflect a slowdown that we’ve been seeing in other economic data, including consumer spending patterns, a slowdown in the energy sector, sluggish business investment; and don’t forget the …

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Financial Review

Jobs Report Friday

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-06-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 278 = 17,856 SPX – 29 = 2071 NAS – 55 = 4927 10 YR YLD + .13 = 2.24% OIL – 1.02 = 49.74 The first Friday of the month is all about jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the economy added 295,000 new jobs in February. The unemployment rate dropped from 5.7% to 5.5%. The results topped estimates of 235,000 jobs, and also beats the revised 239,000 reported for January (revised down from 257,000); and also up from 188,000 a year ago.   The estimates were lower, mainly because most of the country has been experiencing harsh winter weather, and on the West Coast there was a shutdown and a slowdown at the ports. None of that seemed to matter, and if you are thinking ahead, you might imagine that the economy will just keep getting stronger as the weather gets better.   Now, you might look at how Wall Street responded to this very good news about jobs and you might be scratching your head, you might even think Wall Street is opposed to honest, hardworking Americans. Well, maybe a little, but the reason for the sell-off is that a stronger economy means higher interest rates. Investors are looking and focusing entirely on what the Federal Reserve will do in the coming months. Effectively good news in this data point supports the notion …

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Financial Review

Sparks Turn into Flames

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-05-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 38 = 18,135 SPX + 2 = 2101 NAS + 15 = 4982 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.11% OIL – .59 = 50.94 GOLD SILV   Productivity in the fourth quarter fell at a revised 2.2% annual pace. The Labor Department originally estimated that productivity fell 1.8% in the final three months of 2014.   The number of people who applied for new unemployment benefits climbed by 7,000 to 320,000 for the week ended February 28. New applications for unemployment benefits are 1.5% below year-ago levels.   Of course the big economic news is tomorrow morning when we get the monthly jobs report. A month ago, the report showed the economy added 257,000 net new jobs in January. The estimate for February is 235,000 new jobs. It would be a bit of a surprise if the number is stronger than expected. Earlier in the week the ISM report showed employment was still expanding, but at a slower pace; they cited the West Coast port slowdown. Meanwhile, the rest of the country has experienced bad weather in February. Overall, the labor market looks to be improving, slowly.   Last month, Walmart made headlines by announcing it would be hiking wages for a significant chunk of its hourly workforce, boosting its minimum hourly rate to $10 by next year. What was behind the move? Yesterday’s Beige Book may provide a clue. The report says …

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Financial Review

Job Seekers Find Their Place Again

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-06-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 60 = 17,824 SPX – 7 = 2055 NAS – 20 = 4744 10 YR YLD + .12 = 1.94% OIL + 1.60 = 52.08 GOLD – 31.20 = 1234.30 SILV – .54 = 16.79   The U.S. added 257,000 new jobs in January. The unemployment rate edged up to 5.7% from 5.6%, but that’s because more people looked for jobs. The January report topped expectations of 230,000 to 245,000 new jobs.   The Labor Force Participation Rate increased 0.2% to 62.9%. The Labor Department’s survey of households, used to derive the unemployment rate, showed about 1.05 million people entered the labor force and 759,000 found work. These numbers also reflect new estimates on the size of the population. Even as the labor-force participation rate rose last month, it’s held to roughly the same level for the past year and a half. The hope is that there is a trend developing of more people looking for work. Consumers believe job prospects have improved. That perception was evident in last week’s confidence report that showed a jump in the number of consumers who think jobs were “plentiful” last month.  Better confidence in job availability should lead to a jump in the number of people quitting. That’s one data series the Fed tracks as a sign of labor-market tightening beyond what the jobless rate says.   The economy has …

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Financial Review

Earnings Season Kickoff

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-12-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 96 = 17,640 SPX – 16 = 2028 NAS – 39 = 4664 10 YR YLD – .06 = 1.91% OIL – 2.58 = 45.78 GOLD + 10.00 = 1234.40 SILV + .09 = 16.71 The drop in the price of oil has been amazing; the daily moves are big: 3%, or 4% or more on any given day (5% today). Eventually prices will bottom out but we get no indication of where that bottom is. Today, Goldman Sachs made sharp cuts to its oil price projections. The bank’s energy analysts revised down their three-month forecast for WTI crude to $41 a barrel from a previous estimate of $70. They see WTI at $39 a barrel in six months and $65 a barrel in a year, versus previous price forecasts of $75 and $80, respectively. They see Brent at $42 in three months, $43 in six months and $70 in 12 months versus previous estimates of $80, $86 and $90, respectively. When oil is trading at $45 and falling, it really isn’t shocking to say it could drop to $41. Goldman Sachs is playing catchup, and today’s revisions clearly show that their earlier estimates were grossly inaccurate. In an interview with Maria Bartiromo of Fox Business News published in USA Today, Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal said: “If supply stays where it is, and demand remains weak, …

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Financial Review

Buckle Your Seat Belts

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-05-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:19 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 331 = 17,501 SPX – 37 = 2020 NAS – 74 = 4652 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.04% OIL – 2.82 = 49.87 GOLD + 15.40 = 1206.20 SILV + .40 = 16.29 If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall. That is the old saying and most people think the Santa Claus rally covers the month of December, or maybe the week leading to Christmas; actually, the rally time frame covers the last 5 trading days of the year and the first 2 trading days of the New Year, which would include today. And today the markets were down; the worst day in 3 months. The Santa Claus rally is really an indicator. In 1999-2000 rally timeframe suffered a horrendous 4% loss. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, on January 14, 2000, the Dow started its 33-month 37.8% slide to the October 2002 midterm election year bottom. NASDAQ cracked eight weeks later falling 37.3% in 10 weeks, eventually dropping 78% by October 2002. Saddam Hussein cancelled Christmas by invading Kuwait in 1990. Energy prices and Middle East terror woes may have grounded Santa in 2004. In 2007 the third worst reading since 1950 was recorded as subprime mortgages and their derivatives lead to a full-blown financial crisis and the second worst bear market in history. For the past 4 trading sessions, …

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Financial Review

Fed Should Avoid Knee Jerk Hikes

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-08-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 106 = 17,852 SPX – 15 = 2060 NAS – 40 = 4740 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.26% OIL – 2.80 = 63.04 GOLD + 11.10 = 1205.20 SILV + .09 = 16.48 No records today. Energy stocks pulled the market lower; 42 of the 43 energy stocks in the S&P 500 posted losses today. Falling oil prices have also hit exchange rates of energy producers, especially in emerging markets. Russia’s ruble continues to slide, and an index tracking 20 key exchange rates has fallen to levels last seen more than a decade ago, down 10.2 percent this year and headed for the biggest annual slide since 2008. While some developing nations may welcome a weaker currency because it makes their exports more competitive, for others the pace of decline is destabilizing their economies by fueling inflation and eroding investor confidence. While the International Monetary Fund expects developing economies to pick up next year, it still sees them falling short of their longer-term growth. The IMF predicts expansion of 4.95 percent across emerging markets in 2015, up from a forecast of 4.43 percent this year and compared with average growth of 6.44 percent over the past decade. Let’s start with a quick recap of Friday’s jobs report. The economy added 321,000 jobs in November, well above estimates, the highest monthly gain since January 2010 and …

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