Financial Review

Sometimes Brazenly

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-04-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 106 = 18,096 SPX – 9 = 2098 NAS – 12 = 4967 10 YR YLD un = 2.12% OIL + 1.26 = 51.78 Private-sector employment gains continued in February but at a slower pace than in the prior month. Automatic Data Processing Inc. reported Wednesday that employers added 212,000 jobs last month. On Friday, we’ll get the non-farm payroll report for February; it is expected the economy added about 235,000 jobs last month.   The Congressional Budget Office estimates the Treasury Department will exhaust its capacity to borrow in October or November if the debt limit isn’t raised. The debt limit is suspended until March 15. After that date, so-called extraordinary measures available to the Treasury to keep borrowing include deferring new investments in federal retirement and disability funds.   The U.S. Supreme Court is considering the fate of Obamacare for the second time in three years, weighing an attack on tax credits designed to help millions of people afford insurance. The Court heard arguments today in the case of King v. Burwell, an appeal by four Virginia residents who would block the subsidies in at least 34 states. The fight centers on a four-word phrase that has become a linchpin of the law. The measure says people qualify for tax credits when they buy insurance on an online marketplace “established by the state.” The challengers …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Links 02-06-2015

  All about the jobs   Bureau of Labor Statistics For blue-collar America wage gains are slim even as employment surges Reuters Minimum-wage gains to have only minor bump on pay data Marketwatch U.S. adds 257,000 jobs as wage growth picks up Marketwatch January Employment Report: 257,000 Jobs, 5.7% Unemployment Rate Calculatedriskblog.com TAKEAWAYS FROM THE JANUARY JOBS REPORT WSJ Jobs Report Crushes It Bloomberg Investors price in another Fed rate increase after jobs data Marketwatch What the Improving Jobs Picture Means Bloomberg  

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Sunlight is the Best of Disinfectants

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-20-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS08202014 DOW + 59 = 16979 SPX + 4 = 1986 NAS – 1 = 4526 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.42% OIL + .63 = 93.49 GOLD – 3.80 = 1292.40 SILV + .04 = 19.55 No economic reports today, but the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. You will recall that the Fed left interest rates unchanged and continued the taper by reducing large scale asset purchases by $10 billion a month, with the plan to end purchases by October. The Fed had said in its policy statement following the July meeting that there was “significant” labor market slack, but the minutes showed many members of its policy-setting panel thought this characterization “might have to change before long.” Most Fed officials wanted further evidence the labor market and the economy were showing significant improvement before changing their view on raising rates, but they said, “Labor market conditions had moved noticeably closer to those viewed as normal in the longer run,” and policymakers “generally agreed” the job market was healing faster than they had expected. Most Fed policymakers felt any change in their view on when to start raising rates “would depend on further information on the trajectories of economic activity, the labor market and inflation.” Well, we got more data yesterday showing that inflation is not a problem yet; so that leaves economic activity and the …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Friday, November 08, 2013 – Jobs, Jobs, Jobs Friday

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs Friday by Sinclair Noe DOW + 167 = 15,761SPX + 23 = 1770NAS + 61 = 391910 YR YLD + .14 = 2.74%OIL + .13 = 94.33GOLD – 19.10 = 1289.50SILV – .17 = 21.60 Another record high close for the Dow. For the week, the Dow rose 0.9 percent, the S&P 500 was up 0.5 percent while the Nasdaq was down 0.1 percent. Today was all about jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 204,000 in October and the unemployment rate increased from 7.2% to 7.3%. The 204,000 new jobs was much better than the estimates of about 120,000. Further, the numbers from previous months were revised higher; September was revised from 148,000 new jobs to 163,000 new jobs, and August was revised from 193,000 jobs up to 238,000; for a net gain of 60,000 upwardly revised jobs. So, why did the unemployment rate move higher? Part of this may have to do with the government shutdown and there might be a reversal in the November numbers. The furloughed government workers, at least some, were likely counted as unemployed with regard to the unemployment rate, but for the total number, that 204,000 number, those furloughed workers were not counted as unemployed. The problem with the unemployment rate is that the rate can fall even when the labor market conditions get worse. There are two possible reasons why the unemployment rate drops; either more jobless people find work, or more …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Friday, September 06, 2013 – Fed Policy Creates Inequality

Fed Policy Creates Inequality by Sinclair Noe DOW – 14 = 14,922SPX + .09 = 1655NAS + 1 = 366010 YR YLD – .04 = 2.93%OIL+ 1.86 = 110.23GOLD + 21.10 = 1389.80SILV + .63 = 23.94 The war hasn’t started …, yet. This morning we got the big monthly jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 169,000 jobs last month falling short of the 175,000 to 180,000 Wall Street had expected. Not only did hiring miss expectations last month, but the job count for June and July was revised to show 74,000 fewer positions added than previously reported. While the unemployment rate fell a tenth of a percentage point to 7.3 percent, its lowest level since December 2008, the decline reflected a drop in the share of working-age Americans who either have a job or are looking for one. That participation measure reached its lowest point since August 1978, a further sign of underlying economic weakness. The rate for men touched a record low. U-6, a measure of underemployment that includes people who want a job but who have given up searching and those working part time because they cannot find full-time jobs fell three tenths of a percentage point to a 4-1/2-year low of 13.7 percent. The private sector accounted for the bulk of the job gains last month, but government payrolls increased 17,000 as local governments hired teachers for the new school year. Factory employment rebounded after falling in July. Construction payrolls were flat as both residential and …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Tuesday, June 11, 2013 – Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs by Sinclair Noe DOW – 116 = 15,122SPX – 16 = 1626NAS – 36 = 343610 YR YLD – .02 = 2.19%OIL – .86 = 94.91GOLD – 8.80 = 1379.20SILV – .27 = 21.78 Remember the jobs report on Friday? It seems like a long time ago, so to refresh your memory, the economy added 175,000 jobs in May and the unemployment rate inched up to 7.6%. This is not good. You might think that this is one of the more important issues facing the country. In fact you probably do think it’s important. A Gallup poll last month showed 43% said the economy or jobs was the most important problem in the country. And then you look at what’s going on in Washington and there doesn’t seem to be anything happening. The Federal Reserve has addressed the issue, or at least they have finally acknowledged that maximum employment is one of their mandates, or they have at least targeted 6.5% unemployment as a goal, if not a mandate, even if it isn’t maximum employment. And they have buried interest rates in a shallow grave and they have opened their printing press to buy up bonds and mortgage backed securities, and they have been frightened by their own shadow, and so now they think maybe they’ll taper, or not, or maybe they will taper, even though they are a long, long, long way from maximum employment. Maybe the Fed is just acknowledging they aren’t very good at …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Friday, November 2, 2012 – Jobs, Jobs, and More Jobs

Jobs, Jobs, and More Jobsby Sinclair Noe 11022012 Script DOW – 139 = 13,093SPX – 13 = 1414NAS – 37 = 298210 YR YLD +.01 = 1.73% OIL – 1.98 = 87.58GOLD – 38.10 = 1677.90SILV – 1.35 = 31.01 The big economic news of the day is the October jobs report. The Labor Department says the economy added 171,000 jobs last month, and they revised prior months to show even more job gains. The unemployment rate rose to 7.9%, as more people entered the labor pool. Some 578,000 people entered the labor force in September, according to the household survey, with 410,000 saying they found work. The discrepancy led to the slight uptick in the unemployment rate. The professional-services sector created 51,000 jobs, health care added 31,000, retail gained 36,000 and leisure and hospitality companies hired 28,000 workers, manufacturers added 13,000 jobs after shedding workers in the prior two months. Altogether, the private sector added 184,000 jobs, with government subtracting 13,000 from the final total. Any jump in jobs is good for housing. While overall construction added 17,000 jobs in September, residential-building construction employment fell by 2,000. Residential specialty contractor jobs increased by 6,700, which speaks to the real root of today’s housing recovery. All-cash investors are leading the gains; they buy distressed properties and then repair and remodel them to turn them into rentals. It’s no wonder remodelers are seeing greater gains than the home builders. Companies also hired more employees in September and August than previously estimated. …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Friday, August 3, 2012 – The Jobs Report Explained, Plus a Few Charts

The Jobs Report Explained, Plus a Few Charts-by Sinclair NoeDOW + 217 = 13,096SPX + 25 = 1390NAS + 58 = 296710 YR YLD + .10 = 1.58%OIL + 3.77 = 92.96GOLD + 15.30 = 1604. 60SILV + .67 = 27.90PLAT + 21.00 = 1411.00The first Friday of each month is when the Labor Department reports on jobs for the previous month. Today, the report showed the economy added 163,000 net new jobs. It was the best monthly jobs report since February. Estimates had ranged from gains of 95,000 to about 110,000. The payrolls count over the prior two months was revised lower by a cumulative 6,000. Private-sector payrolls rose by 172,000 in the month.Still, the unemployment rate increased from 8.2% to 8.3%.  An alternate measure of employment, known as U-6, which includes discouraged workers and those forced to work part-time because of the weak economy, ticked up to 15% from 14.9%.Employment gains by sector include 49,000 net new positions in professional and business services, a broad category that includes high-paying computer systems companies and lower-paying temporary-help firms. Manufacturing employment accelerated, adding 25,000 new jobs in July despite reports of falling export orders. Education and healthcare services rebounded from a drop in June, adding 38,000 jobs in July; actually, education and healthcare should be broken down and separated because I’m pretty sure education has been losing jobs and healthcare has been a big jobs gainer. If you want to see confirmation that the housing market is bottoming out or even …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Thursday, May 3, 2012 – Jobs More or Less, Europe More or Less, HSBC Mess

DOW – 16 = 13, 206SPX – 10 = 1391NAS – 35 = 302410 YR YLD unchanged = 1.92%OIL +.09 = 102.63GOLD – 17.90 = 1636.80SILV – .58 = 30.17PLAT – 28.00 = 1540.00 Tomorrow the government releases the employment report for April. Economists predict the U.S. gained 160k to 175k jobs last month, up from a disappointing 120,000 in March. The preliminary increase in March was the lowest in five months and fell well short of the 246,000 average from December to February. We’ve seen several reports on jobs that might give a hint on tomorrow’s report: The four-week average of initial jobless claims was 383,500.Jobless claims declined by 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 365,000 in the week ended April 28. The Labor Department said continuing claims decreased by 53,000 to a seasonally adjusted 3.28 million in the week ended April 21. Continuing claims reflect people already receiving benefits. ADP’s report on private-sector payrolls slowed to 119,000 from 201,000 in March. The employment component of the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing report rose to 57.3% from 56.1%, on a scale where readings over 50% indicate expansion. The employment component of the Institute for Supply Management’s services report slowed to 54.2% from 56.7%, on a scale where readings over 50% indicate expansion. Planned layoff announcements rose 7% to 40,559, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. What does it mean? It means wait until tomorrow’s report and we’ll find out. This is not the kind of report that you bet on. …

READ MORE →

February, Friday 3, 2012

DOW + 156= 12862SPX + 19 = 1344NAS + 45 = 290510 YR YLD +.12 = 1.95%OIL +1.44 = 97.80GOLD – 32.50 = 1726.90SILV -.69 = 33.77PLAT – 7.00 = 1626.00 The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent in January. The economy added 243,000 jobs, the biggest monthly increase in nine months. The results were about 100,000 stronger than most estimates. Revisions added a total of 60,0000  jobs to payrolls in November and December. Gains in employment last month were broad-based, including manufacturing, construction, temporary help agencies, accounting firms, restaurants and retailers. Manufacturing payrolls increased by 50,000 in January, the most in a year. Construction companies added 21,000 workers last month. We talked about this about one month ago; the mild winter and warm weather across most of the country has really helped construction jobs.  Private payrolls, which exclude government agencies, rose 257,000 in January after a revised gain of 220,000 the prior month, marking the biggest back-to-back gain since March-April. Government payrolls decreased by 14,000 in January. If it weren’t for public sector cutbacks, the labor market would be looking even better. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent to $23.29, today’s report showed. The average work week for all workers increased to 34.5 hours (from 34.4) The underemployment rate — which includes part- time workers who’d prefer a full-time position and people who want work but have given up looking — decreased to 15.1 percent from 15.2 percent. Whenever the unemployment rate drops, economically savvy observers know to ask …

READ MORE →