Financial Review

Like It Never Happened

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-29-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSStocks rally for a second day. Euro Commission meets. Scots beg forgiveness. Stress tests. GE no longer a threat. Consumer spending up. Pending home sales down. Puerto Rico will default. Coke GMO in Vermont. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-29-2016

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Financial Review

Thursday, April 17, 2014 – The Growth Industry for the Next 20 Years

The Growth Industry for the Next 20 Years by Sinclair Noe DOW – 16 = 16,408SPX + 2 = 1864NAS + 9 = 409510 YR YLD + .08 = 2.72%OIL + .83 = 104.59GOLD – 7.60 = 1295.60SILV + .02 = 19.75 Stocks ended a holiday-shortened week with mixed results. Stock markets will be closed tomorrow in observance of Good Friday. The S&P 500 had its best week since last July. For the week, the Dow rose 2.4%, the S&P 500 added 2.7% and the Nasdaq advanced 2.4%. With less than one-fifth of S&P 500 companies having reported results so far, about 63% have topped earnings expectations and 52% have topped revenue expectations. Of course that’s part of the dance between corporations and analysts, but it does move stock prices. For example, Goldman Sachs reported an 11% drop in quarterly profit and revenue fell 8%, but the results were better than estimates and share price was higher on the day.  Among the other earnings related movers today, Google, IBM, Mattel, and United Health were down on poor earnings news, while Morgan Stanley, GE and Pepsi moved higher. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose less than expected in the latest week and came near pre-recession levels. The Labor Department also reports weekly earnings of the typical full-time worker rose 3% in the first quarter compared to a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2008. Median earnings came in at $796, that’s the point where half of …

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Monday, March 03, 2013 – Carry On

Carry Onby Sinclair Noe DOW – 153 = 16,168SPX – 13 = 1845NAS – 30 = 427710 YR YLD – .05 = 2.60%OIL + 2.20 = 104.79GOLD + 21.70 = 1351.30SILV + .18 = 21.51 Manufacturing expanded at a faster pace than projected in February. The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index rose to 53.2 from 51.3 in January. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing activity. Consumer spending in the US climbed more than forecast in January, reflecting the biggest increase in services in over 12 years. Household purchases rose 0.4%, after a 0.1% gain the prior month. Disposable income, or the money left over after taxes, rose 0.3% after adjusting for inflation. It dropped 0.2% in the prior month and was up 2.8% from January 2013. The saving rate was 4.3% in January, unchanged from the prior month. Wages and salaries increased 0.2% after dropping 0.1% in December. The big economic report this week will be the monthly jobs report on Friday. Faster than you can say “the Russians are coming”, they invaded Ukraine. Moscow now has operational control of the Crimean Peninsula, with about 6,000 airborne and ground troops. Russia has military bases on the Red Sea, but the troops have gone off base. The Russians have just taken over without any real fighting; indeed, many Crimeans are sympathetic to Russia. Ukraine has a large Russian ethnic minority, which it inherited mainly as the result of Soviet policies, including a re-drawing of the inner map …

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Friday, September 27, 2013 – Swords to Plowshares

Swords to Plowshares by Sinclair Noe DOW – 70 = 15,258SPX – 6 = 1691 NAS – 5 = 3781 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.62%OIL – .16 = 102.87GOLD + 12.40 = 1337.20SILV + .05 = 21.88 The war hasn’t started,… yet. And it looks like it won’t start any time soon; I refer, of course to US military intervention in Syria; the Syrian Civil War is ongoing, but the US didn’t jump into that quagmire. A funny thing happened in New York last night, the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council have agreed on a resolution that will require Syria to give up its chemical weapons; yes, that means Russia and China signed off on the deal, but there will be no automatic penalties if the Syrians fail to comply. If Syria fails to comply, there would need to be further UN agreement on what measures to impose for noncompliance. Still, it is a remarkable turn of events considering that a few short weeks ago we had destroyers in the Mediterranean and it looked like bombs would fly at the drop of a hat. The diplomatic breakthrough on Syria came as Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Zarif, said progress had been made toward a resolution of the nuclear dispute between his country and the West, suggesting it could happen in a year. Zarif met face to face with Secretary of State John Kerry in one of the highest-level discussions between the two countries in more …

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Wednesday, September 11, 2013 – Twelve Years After

Twelve Years After by Sinclair Noe DOW + 135 = 15,326SPX + 5 = 1689NAS – 4 = 372510 YR YLD – .04 = 2.92%OIL – .08 = 107.31GOLD + 2.50 = 1366.80SILV + .25 = 23.32 The war hasn’t started…, yet. The war with Syria hasn’t started yet. We’re still at war; troops still in Afghanistan, slowly exiting; but, we’re still at war, 12 years after. The Dow Industrials have climbed for 6 out of the last 7 sessions, which coincides with the announcement by Obama to seek a Congressional vote on Syria. The Dow has added over 500 points since then. The price of oil hit highs for the year in the buildup to war. We’ve grown averse to war. Even on Wall Street, the idea of not going to war is a good thing. Maybe that is something we’ve learned from the last 12 years. War is bad; not going to war is good. And so last night we listened to the president trying to sell the necessity of more war, this time in Syria. He called it military intervention, but whenever you drop bombs on another country, it is war. I’m still not sure what the objective would be. I’m not sure what the cost would be, but the cost of the past 12 years has been much higher than anyone thought at the time. And then, halfway through the speech last night, we heard the possibility of a diplomatic solution. Today, diplomatic efforts intensified. France …

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Tuesday, September 10, 2011 – Infinite Monkey Diplomacy Theorem

Infinite Monkey Diplomacy Theorem by Sinclair Noe DOW + 127 = 15,191SPX + 12 = 1683NAS + 22 = 372910 YR YLD + .06 = 2.96%OIL – 2.29 = 107.23GOLD – 23.20 = 1364.30SILV – .75 = 23.07 The war hasn’t started…, yet. We had an off the cuff comment from Secretary of State John Kerry that set off a new peace plan. Kerry told reporters in London that President Bashar al-Assad of Syria could avert a strike if he turned over his chemical weapons stockpile within a week, adding that such an outcome was unlikely. This is apparently a new diplomatic policy based upon the infinite monkey theorem; which postulates that if you had a roomful of monkeys with typewriters, the monkeys would almost surely, eventually type out the complete works of William Shakespeare. In this context, the monkey is not an actual monkey but a metaphor for an abstract device or perhaps a Secretary of State, and given enough time to talk he would almost surely, eventually stumble across a peace plan. Last night his apparently off-the-cuff proposal had gained broad support, including a warm welcome from both Syria and Russia, which said it would bring Syria’s chemical weapons under international control. France has introduced a proposal with the UN. Kerry has denied the whole thing, calling the remark nothing more than a rhetorical exercise. Methinks he doth protest too much; for what is politics but a rhetorical exercise? If you don’t like the infinite monkey theorem, then …

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Monday, September 09, 2013 – The Problem Is We Do Get It

The Problem Is We Do Get It by Sinclair Noe DOW + 140 = 15,063SPX + 16 = 1671NAS + 46 = 370610 YR YLD – .04 = 2.90%OIL – 1.56 = 108.97GOLD – 2.30 = 1387.50SILV – .13 = 23.82 The war hasn’t started…, yet. A funny thing happened today; for a few moments the constant drumbeats for war were quieted, and there was talk of a diplomatic solution; fleeting, nothing concrete, hypothetical, could disintegrate in the flicker of a butterfly’s wing. Russia jumped on a remark by Secretary of State John Kerry, who said Syria should save itself by handing over its chemical weapons. Kerry was quick to dismiss as hypothetical his own comment that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad could avert U.S. strikes by surrendering his chemical arsenal to international control. But Assad’s ally Russia quickly turned it into a firm proposal that was “welcomed” by Damascus and echoed by the UN chief Ban Ki-moon. The White House said it was “seriously skeptical” but would take a “hard look” at the proposal. Russia’s foreign minister said he would push Assad to place Syria’s stockpile of nerve gases, blister agents and other chemical agents under UN supervision for eventual destruction. He said Russia also would push Syria to sign the Chemical Weapons Convention, the international treaty that prohibits use of poison gas. The Syrian government quickly put out a statement saying it would cooperate. Can you trust Russia to broker a peace deal? Hell no. Over the last weeks, …

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Wednesday, September 04, 2013 – Not Yet but Closer

Not Yet but Closerby Sinclair Noe DOW + 96 = 14,930SPX + 13 = 1653NAS + 36 = 364910 YR YLD + .05 = 2.90%OIL – 1.24 = 107.30GOLD – 20.60 = 1392.60SILV – .82 = 23.56 The Senate Foreign Relations Committee approved a resolution on authorizing limited military intervention in Syria, setting the stage for a debate in the full Senate next week on the use of force. The committee voted 10-7 in favor of a compromise resolution that sets a 60-day limit on any engagement in Syria, with a possible 30-day extension, and bars the use of troops on the ground for combat operations. The compromise is more limited than President Barack Obama’s original proposal but would meet his administration’s goal of…, well, actually, I’m not sure what the goal is, except that it would be limited and narrow, and now it would be even more limited. Yesterday we talked about some of the challenges or headwinds facing the economy and the markets. Today, the Federal Reserve released its Beige Book, and apparently things are better than they look. Conditions continued to improve over the past quarter. The central bank said growth was moving at a “modest to moderate pace” with improvements coming across all the Fed districts. The Fed said in its Beige Book report: “Consumer spending rose in most districts, reflecting, in part, strong demand for automobiles and housing-related goods.” Increased activity also was reported in travel and tourism, nonfinancial services and manufacturing, which the central …

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Friday, August 30, 2013 – The War Hasn’t Started Yet

The War Hasn’t Started Yet by Sinclair Noe DOW – 30 = 14,810SPX – 5 = 1632NAS – 30 = 358910 YR YLD – .02 = 2.74%OIL – 1.15 = 107.65GOLD – 10.70 = 1397.50SILV – .34 = 23.63 The S&P 500 fell 3.1 percent in August and lost 1.8 percent for the week in a third decline in the past four weeks.The Nasdaq fell 1.9 percent for the week while the Dow slid 1.3 percent in its fourth straight weekly loss. For the month, the Dow fell 4.4 percent and the Nasdaq lost 1 percent. Only one of the 30 Dow components, Microsoft Corp , ended higher for the month. Very quietly, silver is up 22% since July 1st. The price of gold touched $1,420 an ounce this week, a three-and-a-half month high. The war has not started, yet. Secretary of State John Kerry says the Syrian government forces killed 1429 people last week in a chemical weapons attack. UN chemical weapons inspectors are investigating the attacks and will present preliminary findings to the UN after they leave Damascus tomorrow. Mr Kerry said the US already had the facts, and nothing that the UN weapons inspectors found could tell the world anything new. The US government has published an intelligence report which basically says the Syrian forces gassed Syrian civilians, killing 1429, and the intelligence is backed by medical personnell, witnesses, journalists, videos, and thousands of various things including social media. They are convinced the rockets came from areas controlled …

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Monday, August 26, 2013 – And the Answer Is

And the Answer Is by Sinclair Noe DOW – 64 = 14,946SPX – 6 = 1656NAS – 0.22 = 365710 YR YLD – .02 = 2.78%OIL + .29 = 106.21GOLD + 7.20 = 1406.00SILV + .25 = 24.43 President Obama awarded Army Staff Sergeant Ty Carter the Medal of Honor in a ceremony at the White House today. Carter is now the fifth living recipient of the decoration for heroic actions in Iraq or Afghanistan. The Medal of Honor, the nation’s highest military honor was awarded for Carter’s distinguished service on October 3, 2009 at Combat Outpost Keating in Afghanistan. More than 300 Afghan insurgents launched an attack against the remote, mountainous outpost; of the 53 fellow 4th Infantry Division soldiers who defended the outpost that day, eight were killed and 25 others injured. They were outnumbered six to one; the fact that anyone survived is a testament to the heroism of the day. In another part of the compound, former Staff Sergeant Clinton Romesha, battled against incredible odds. Romesha was the second survivor of that battle to receive the Medal of Honor. Carter risked his own life to resupply his fellow soldiers and to rescue a battle buddy; Carter was wounded but continued to fight; all this while under heavy and constant fire that lasted more than six hours. It is hard to imagine the hell those soldiers endured that day. The wounded soldier that Carter rescued, Specialist Stephan Mace, would later die. Carter blamed himself. For Carter, the …

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