Financial Review

Wild Ride

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-29-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Dow hits a record, again. 3Q GDP at 3.3%. Yellen takes a curtain call. John Williams in Phoenix. Pending home sales jump. Cryto-currency crazy. SCOTUS and cellphone privacy. Wells Fargo, repeat offender. American Air, whoops. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-29-2017

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Financial Review

Wallonia World

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-21-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Wall Street up for the week. Gas cost more than a year ago. Big Tobacco gets bigger. Earnings: McDonalds, GE, Honeywell, etc. Fake Apples. Internet attack. Wallonia? Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-21-2016

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Financial Review

Take the Overs

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-19-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSOil bull. Fed jawbones for rate hike. Singer’s bubble. Brexit sets a date. Whistleblower not in it for the money. Valeant is the next Enron. Robocall Strike Force. Take the Overs. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-19-2016

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Financial Review

Record Setting

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-15-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSDow, S&P and Nas all hit record highs. Big whoop. Russia and Saudis jawbone oil higher. M&A galore: JDA-Honeywell, MidAmerica-Post, Xylem-Sensus, KKR-eOne, AIG-Arch Capital. Fed Pres J. Williams says central bankers need specific fiscal policy measures. Google high speed encounters an actual ditch. VW might have a fix. Nissan has an even better fix. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-15-2016

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Financial Review

Off to the Races

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-04-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-04-2016 DOW – 276 = 17,148 SPX – 31 = 2012 NAS – 104 = 4903 10 YR – .02 = 2.25% OIL – .11 = 36.93 GOLD + 13.50 = 1075.50 The Dow started the morning with a 467 point decline. An inauspicious start to trading in 2016 kicked off, or more accurately fell down, this morning in China. Traders in Shanghai reacted to growing tensions in the Middle East and a drop in one of China’s manufacturing gauges. Fresh manufacturing surveys revived concerns about Beijing’s economic slowdown. China’s manufacturing activity contracted for the 10th straight month in December – the official manufacturing PMI stood at 49.7 in December. The yuan, which began new extended trading hours today, also hit its lowest point in more than four years in both onshore and offshore trade.   The China CSI 300 Index dropped 5% and that triggered circuit breakers that resulted in a 30 minute halt in trading of all stocks. When trading resumed, the traders were scared and they rushed to exit their positions. In a matter of about 7 minutes the Index dropped to a loss of 7%, and the next round of circuit breakers triggered a halt to trading for the remainder of the day.   The benchmark Shanghai Composite index closed the shortened session down 6.85% while the broader CSI 300 index, encompassing the largest …

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Financial Review

The Foreseeable Future

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-09-2015 DOW – 179 = 17,730 SPX – 20 = 2078 NAS – 51 = 5095 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.34% OIL – .18 = 44.11 GOLD + 2.50 = 1092.90 SILV – .16 = 14.68 The jobs report on Friday showed a rise of 271,000 new jobs last month and the unemployment rate dropping to 5%. In a speech in Tempe on Saturday, San Francisco Fed President John Williams said: “My forecast is that we’ll reach our maximum employment mandate in the near future and I’m increasingly confident that inflation will gradually move back to our 2% goal.” Williams said: “I view the next appropriate step as the start of a process of gradually raising interest rates,” and the data will determine when it comes to lifting rates. Williams offered an upbeat outlook on the economy, and he said that it is OK that the pace of job creation has slowed relative to recent history, because continuing on that pace could cause problems. (For whom?)   We all knew about the jobs report on Friday, so why the delayed reaction in the markets today to news from Friday? Well, that would be assuming that the markets went down today because everybody figured out that the Fed is definitely going “live” with a planned rate hike in December. I don’t know why the markets went down …

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Financial Review

Endless Possibilities

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-15-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 3 = 18,050 SPX – 1 = 2107 NAS – 5 = 5098 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.35% OIL – 1.43 = 51.61 GOLD – 5.90 = 1149.90 SILV –  .28 = 15.19   I think the markets couldn’t quite figure out what to make of today.   In the late 1970s Sen. Hubert Humphrey and Rep. Augustus Hawkins sponsored legislation known as the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978. The idea was to set monetary policy to try to achieve the goals of full employment, growth in production, price stability, and balance of trade and the budget. The Act also required the Federal Open Market Committee to report to Congress twice a year, in February and July; we used to call it the Humphrey-Hawkins testimony.   Testimony coincides with the publication of the Fed’s Beige Book, which was released today. The Beige Book cited improving consumer spending, mixed activity for transportation, positive reports on real estate, increasing lending activity, and “modest” wage pressures. The report did reveal trouble spots, such as the strengthening dollar, which led to soft growth around border areas, and the decline in oil and natural gas drilling.   The Humphrey-Hawkins Act expired about 10 years ago; perhaps because the goals of full employment, balanced budgets and balanced trade seem like Utopian pipedreams, but the Fed chair still heads …

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Financial Review

Thirst for Innovation

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 104 = 18,011 SPX – 12 = 2091 NAS – 16 = 4994 10 YR YLD – .03 = 1.88% OIL + .06 = 47.51 GOLD + 3.90 = 1194.20 SILV – .04 = 17.04   The Labor Department reports the consumer price index climbed by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% last month. Gasoline prices rebounded in February. Higher costs for food, housing and new cars also contributed to the increase. Still, there’s been zero overall inflation in the last 12 months, mainly because of the big drop in gas prices. If food and energy are excluded, so-called core consumer inflation has risen at a 1.7% rate over the past 12 months.   In February energy prices rose 1%. Gasoline price are still down almost 33% in the past year. Food prices moved up 0.2% last month, bringing the increase over the past 12 months to 3%. Shelter costs also rose 3% in the past year. The cost of medical care fell in February for the first time since 1975, although overall health-care costs were unchanged.   Now, the reason the CPI number is important is because the Federal Reserve last week shifted from being patient about raising interest rates to being data dependent about hiking rates, and the data they are focusing on is inflation and jobs. Although the Fed uses a different index as its preferred …

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Financial Review

Wednesday, May 21, 2014 – Congratulations Graduates, Yada, Yada, Yada

Congratulations Graduates, Yada, Yada, Yada by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 158 = 16,533 SPX + 15 = 1888 NAS + 34 = 4131 10 YR + .02 = 2.53% OIL – 33 = 103.74 GOLD – 2.40 = 1292.90 SIL  un = 19.49   Earnings season is winding down; about 96% of S&P 500 companies have reported results, with profit growth this quarter of 5.5% and revenue up 2.8%. While more companies have topped earnings expectations than usual, fewer have beat on the revenue side. This has been an ongoing theme for corporate profits; bottom line growth without corresponding sales. If this formula sounds unsustainable, it is, unless there is some other factor pumping up the markets.   Follow-up from yesterday: China has signed a 30-year deal to buy Russian natural gas worth about $400 billion. The gas deal gives Moscow an economic boost at a time when Washington and the European Union have imposed visa bans and asset freezes on dozens of Russian officials and several companies over Ukraine. It allows Russia to diversify its markets for gas, which now goes mostly to Europe; essentially opening the door to Asia’s gas market and potentially closing the door on the petro-dollar.   The Federal Reserve today released the minutes of the most recent FOMC meeting. Fed policymakers considered several approaches to tightening monetary policy, but decided to remain flexible; which is another way of saying QE is a big experiment and they are just hoping nothing explodes in their …

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Uncategorized

Thursday, May 16, 2013 – What’s Next For the Fed

What’s Next For the Fed by Sinclair Noe DOW – 42 = 15,233SPX – 8 = 1650NAS – 6 = 346510 YR YLD – .08 = 1.87%OIL + .95 = 95.25GOLD – 6.60 = 1386.90SILV + .10 = 22.79 The Labor Department reports the consumer price index dropped 0.4% in April from March, the biggest monthly drop since December 2008. The main reason the index fell was that gas prices plunged 8.1 percent. Excluding the drop in fuel costs, prices were largely unchanged. For the 12 months that ended in April, overall prices rose 1.1 percent — the smallest year-over-year increase in 2½ years. Excluding volatile energy and food costs, “core” prices ticked up 0.1 percent last month. Core prices have risen only 1.7 percent in the past 12 months. That’s below the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent inflation target. Yesterday, we reported that wholesale prices declined last month. Inflation is not the problem right now; it might be a problem at some point down the road, but not now. John Williams, the San Francisco Fed presidentgave a speechin Portland and he indicated that the Fed’s Quantitative Easing program can be reduced soon, and that the whole program may be halted this year. He pointed out the pace of job growth has picked up since the program was launched in September, with an average pace of job growth of 200,000 over the last six months. Williams said: “Assuming my economic forecast holds true and various labor-market indicators continue to register appreciable …

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