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Wednesday, September 11, 2013 – Twelve Years After

Twelve Years After by Sinclair Noe DOW + 135 = 15,326SPX + 5 = 1689NAS – 4 = 372510 YR YLD – .04 = 2.92%OIL – .08 = 107.31GOLD + 2.50 = 1366.80SILV + .25 = 23.32 The war hasn’t started…, yet. The war with Syria hasn’t started yet. We’re still at war; troops still in Afghanistan, slowly exiting; but, we’re still at war, 12 years after. The Dow Industrials have climbed for 6 out of the last 7 sessions, which coincides with the announcement by Obama to seek a Congressional vote on Syria. The Dow has added over 500 points since then. The price of oil hit highs for the year in the buildup to war. We’ve grown averse to war. Even on Wall Street, the idea of not going to war is a good thing. Maybe that is something we’ve learned from the last 12 years. War is bad; not going to war is good. And so last night we listened to the president trying to sell the necessity of more war, this time in Syria. He called it military intervention, but whenever you drop bombs on another country, it is war. I’m still not sure what the objective would be. I’m not sure what the cost would be, but the cost of the past 12 years has been much higher than anyone thought at the time. And then, halfway through the speech last night, we heard the possibility of a diplomatic solution. Today, diplomatic efforts intensified. France …

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Friday, May 03, 2013 – Jobs on the First Friday in May

Jobs on the First Friday in May by Sinclair Noe DOW + 142 = 14,873SPX + 16 = 1614NAS + 38 = 337810 YR YLD + .12 = 1.75%OIL + 1.47 = 95.46GOLD + 3.30 = 1471.70SILV + .30 = 24.23 If you’ve been a regular listener over the years you know that I get a little wonkish on the first Friday of each month. That’s the day we get the monthly jobs report. I consider this to be one of the most important economic reports and so I spend a little extra time covering it. Stick around, and we’ll make you an expert. Today, the Labor Department reports there were 165,000 net jobs added to the economy in April. The unemployment rate dropped to 7.5%, down from 7.6% in March; that’s the lowest level since December 2008. The number of jobs added beat estimates of a gain of 135,000 to around 155,000. The number of new jobs created in March was revised up to 138,000 from 88,000, while February’s figure was revised up to 332,000 from 268,000.With the revision, the 332,000 jobs gained in February was the biggest monthly gain in jobs since November 2005. So, the economy created 114,000 additional jobs in March and February than initially estimated.The average for the past three months is about 211,000 jobs. It is widely estimated that the economy needs to add 250,000 over an extended period of time in order to see the unemployment rate drop below 6%. The number of …

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Thursday, October 4, 2012 – If I Didn’t Hear It, Did It Happen?

If I Didn’t Hear It, Did It Happen? By Sinclair Noe DOW + 80 = 13,573SPX + 10 = 1461NAS + 14 = 314910 YR YLD +.04 = 1.66%OIL + 3.47 = 91.61GOLD + 11.30 = 1791.30SILV + .33 = 35.07PLAT + 31.00 = 1725.00 Initial claims for state unemployment benefits climbed 4,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 367,000, the Labor Department. But that followed a drop of 22,000 and a four-week average, which offers a view of trends, held steady at 375,000. The monthly jobs report is tomorrow morning. Today, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the FOMC’s September 13meeting. Of course, we know the Fed launched QE to Infinity and Beyond, or at least $40 billion dollars a month in mortgage-backed securities, until such time as we see maximum employment or until inflation becomes a problem. From the meeting minutes we learn that there might be limits on QE. The report says: “Most participants agreed that the use of numerical thresholds could be useful in providing more clarity about the conditionality of the forward guidance but thought that further work would be needed to address the related communications challenges.” In other words, there might be limits to acceptable unemployment. Maybe 7%, maybe 5%? We don’t know. And there might be limits to acceptable inflation. Maybe 2%, maybe 3%? We don’t know. We would like to know. If we knew, we could bet on the numbers. Unemployment at 8.2% and inflation at 1.5% equals risk on. Unemployment …

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