Financial Review

S**t for Brains

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-12-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Record highs on Wall Street. CPI up. Hints of inflation. Fed on course. Retail was strong. JPM and WFC report strong earnings. NYC sues big oil. Facebook changes algorithms. Another new low for Trump. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-12-2018

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Financial Review

More Records

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-09-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Record highs for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq. Job openings drop. No patch for Meltdown & Spectre. Target on target. No Bitcoin ETF. A brief history of government shutdown. Arpaio’s back. Here comes the rain. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-09-2018

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Author Interviews

Helen Chaitman

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/HELEN_CHAITMAN-05-20-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 19:50 — 9.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSSinclair Noe interview Helen Chaitman, author of “JPMadoff: The Unholy Alliance between America’s Biggest Bank and America’s Biggest Crook”

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Thursday, October 31, 2013 – Halloween Miracles

Halloween Miracles by Sinclair Noe DOW – 73 = 15,545SPX – 6 = 1756NAS – 10= 391910 YR YLD + .02 = 2.54%OIL – .53 = 96.24GOLD – 20.20 = 1323.70SILV – .83 = 22.01 The S&P closed near its intraday low, but it’s been a good October. For the month, the Dow gained 2.8 percent, the S&P 500 added 4.5 percent and the Nasdaq rose 3.9 percent. The S&P 500 is up 23.2 percent for the year so far. The S&P/Case-Shiller index showed that home prices in 20 large metro areas rose 1.3% from July and 12.8% from August 2012. Prices haven’t risen this fast year over year since Feb. 2006. Still, there are signs of a cooling. The rate of monthly increases in the 20 large cities peaked in April. Since then home prices continued to rise, but at a slower pace each month. This month 16 cities reported smaller gains in August compared to July. Las Vegas saw the largest annual increases, with prices soaring from a year earlier  29.2%. In San Francisco prices jumped 25.4%; in Los Angeles 21.7%; in San Diego 21.5%. The Chicago purchasing managers index jumped to a reading of 65.9 in October, up from 55.7 and well ahead of the consensus of 54.5. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance fell by 10,000 last week, to 340,000 from 350,000 the week before. Though it’s the third straight week that claims have dropped, the number of …

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Monday, January 7, 2013 – I Went on Vacation and Not Much Changed

I Went on Vacation and Not Much Changed by Sinclair Noe DOW – 50 = 13,384SPX – 4 = 1461NAS – 2 = 309810 YR YLD -.01 = 1.90%OIL + .21 = 93.30GOLD – 9.90 = 1647.90SILV – .02 = 30.26 Forty years ago, Yale Hirsch at the Stock Traders Almanac, created the January Barometer. The idea was simple: as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year. This market prediction tool has been correct 89% of the time since 1950, suffering only seven major setbacks. Since 1950, stocks have finished lower for the year only three times after posting gains in January. When the Dow is positive in January, then the rest of the year is positive 83% of the time, averaging additional gains of 9.59%. Compare that to the Dow’s performance when January is negative. In those years, the February-December returns are positive just half of the time, with an average gain of 2.04%. As with the full-year results, a positive January typically leads to a positive February. When the Dow closes higher in January, February goes on to average a return of 0.57%, and is positive 63% of the time. When January is negative, February is negative more than half the time, and averages a loss of more than 1%. However, an outsized return in January has not necessarily translated into a bigger return for February. If January is up more than 3.5%, the average February gain is not as big as if January is …

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Uncategorized

Wednesday, July 25, 2012 –

Sandy Weill, Glass-Steagall, and Banksters on the Wrong Side of History-by Sinclair NoeDOW + 58 = 12,676SPX -0.42 = 1337NAS – 8 = 285410 YR YLD unch = 1.41OIL +.61 = 90.67GOLD + 23.70 = 1605.80SILV +.38 = 27.44PLAT + 15.00 = 1406.00One story today. In 1993 Sandy Weill acquired Shearson Lehman; in quick order he also bought up Travelers Corp and Aetna Life and Casualty and then Salomon Brothers. He began calling the conglomerate, Travelers Group. In April 1998, Travelers Group announced an agreement to undertake the $76 billion merger between Travelers and Citicorp. The new company, called Citigroup, combined a commercial bank holding company with an insurance company and investment banking; it was a big one stop shop that included Citibank, Travelers, Smith Barney, Primerica, Citifinancial, Shearson, Aetna, and Salomon. At the time, it was the largest merger in history and created a financial behemoth with operations in 100 countries. It was also illegal based upon the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933.Let’s go back in time to explain Glass-Steagall. At the height of the Great Depression the Congress conducted hearings which showed that the presumed leaders of American enterprise, the bankers and brokers, were guilty of disreputable and dishonest dealings and gross misuses of the public’s trust, literally buying control of politicians. The hearings started in 1932 and they uncovered plenty of abuses. JP Morgan maintained a “preferred list” of clients that would get special deals, huge discounts on stock purchases that could then be flipped for a quick …

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Thursday, May 10, 2012 – JP Morgan Chase Goes Boom

DOW +19 = 12,855SPX + 3 = 1357 NAS – 1 = 2933 10 YR YLD + .05 = 1.88%OIL – .26 = 96.55GOLD + 4.00 = 1594.40SILV -.23 = 29.14PLAT – 13.00 = 1492.00 So, it was a quiet day in the markets, not much going on; the Dow and the S&P managed to eke out modest gains, and this was welcome following 6 days of losses. Back in early April I told you to start getting out of the market, based in part, on the the idea of “Sell in May and stay away”. Sure, enough, May has been ugly, but not every day is ugly. There will be ups and downs. The past six days have been down; today the markets stopped banging their head against a wall, but the headache hasn’t gone away. All in all, an uneventful trading day. And then after the closing bell – boom! JP Morgan Chase lost about $2 billion on mark-to-market accounting tied to synthetic credit securities after positions taken by its chief investment office were riskier than expected. JPMorgan’s chief investment office, or CIO has been transformed in recent years under Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon, into a unit that makes bigger and riskier speculative bets with the bank’s money, five former employees of the bank said earlier this year. Some of the bets were so big that the bank probably couldn’t unwind them without losing money or roiling financial markets. Losses in CIO’s synthetic credit portfolio have been …

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Friday, April 13, 2012

DOW – 136 = 12,849SPX – 17 = 1370NAS – 44 = 301110 YR YLD -.05 = 2.00%OIL – .81 = 102.83GOLD – 16.80 – 1659.50SILV – .88 = 31.60PLAT – 20.00 = 1581.00 The S&P 500 is now down 3.4 percent from this year’s closing high, after falling 2.7 percent over the past two weeks. Wells Fargo and JP Morgan reported first quarter results; both beat expectations. JP Morgan came in with EPS of $1.31 on $26.7b in revenues; topping estimates of EPS $1.18 and revenues of $24.6b. Wells Fargo posted EPS of $0.75 on $21.6b in revenues, beating estimates of $0.73 and $20.4b. JP Morgan made a big chunk of earnings by lowering their reserves for loan losses by $2 billion. In the last 2 years, JP Morgan has generated $12.3 billion in non-earning earnings, even as non-performing loans increased by $600 million in the last quarter. Or as CNBS said, they “blew expectations out of the water.” Blowing smoke is more like it. WFC – 3.4% JPM -3.6% BAC -5.3% GS -4.4% C -3.5%. Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan said he would fight buyback demands or repurchase claims on mortgage securities that turned sour. Bank of America has already lost a few of these multi-billion dollar battles. JP Morgan is in the same business as Bank of America. Jamie Dimon briefly responded to questions about the Chief Investment Office, or CIO; that’s the proprietary trading division. According to JP Morgan the CIO division uses approximately …

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March, Friday 23, 2012

DOW + 34 = 13,080SPX + 4 = 1397 NAS + 4 = 3067 10 YR YLD -.04 = 2.24% OIL + 1.40 = 106.75 GOLD + 17.90 = 1663.80 SILV +.65 = 32.34PLAT + 4.00 = 1630.00 Bloomberg News is reporting that Jon Corzine, the former CEO of MF Global gave “direct instructions” to transfer $200 million from a customer fund account to meet an overdraft in one of the brokerage’s accounts with JPMorgan Chase in London. Back in December, Corzine testified that he never intended to misuse customer funds, he didn’t know where the money went, and (quote) “I did not instruct anyone to lend customer funds to anyone.”  Now, investigators have an email from the firm’s treasurer, three days before the company collapsed, and it says the transfer of funds was “Per JC’s direct instructions.” Somebody is going to have to re-hypothecate their testimony. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says the economy is operating below its level prior to the financial crisis. Bernanke said: “Consumer spending is not recovered, it’s still quite weak relative to where it was before the crisis. In terms of debt and consumption and so on we’re still way low relative to the patterns before.” I think what Bernanke is saying is: go shopping; go into debt if you don’t have money but just buy something. The US changed in the early 1980s from a model where rising worker wages were seen as the driver to growth and hence a focus of policy, …

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February, Friday 17, 2012

DOW +46 = 12950SPX + 3 = 1361NAS – 8 = 295110 YR YLD +.02 = 2.01%OIL +1.75 = 104.06GOLD – 5.00 = 1724.80SILV -.24 = 33.38PLAT + 11.00 = 1638.00 The stock market is looking great. The S&P 500 hit a nine-month high. The Dow is back at levels from the beginning of 2008, (record high was 1517 for SPX) (14,198 for Dow). At least it’s looking decent. The market was cruising along with triple digit gains, but couldn’t hold into the close. Confidence is one thing, but going long heading into a holiday weekend.., well, let’s not get carried away. Optimism was high that there would be some sort of  deal worked out to rescue Greece by burying the country under unsustainable debt.  Euro-zone finance ministers will be meeting over the weekend to hammer out details. The big challenge is to cut Greece’s debt down to 120% over the next 8 years; to do this, the Greeks will have an orderly default of debt, paying off bonds at about 30 cents on the dollar for private sector investors and about a 50% haircut for the central bankers that hold Greek bonds. And nobody is quite sure if the private sector investors are going to accept the haircut. In return for the discounts, the Greeks would accept, maybe, harsh austerity measures that will contract the economy. And they keep saying they will have a deal, probably by Monday. And all I can think of is that Homer is now …

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