Financial Review

More on the Panama Papers

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-05-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSISM report, JOLT survey, trade deficit, home prices – plus the Panama Papers claims its first PM.

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Financial Review

No Sense in Wasting Our Time

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-23-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-23-2016 DOW – 188 = 16,431 SPX – 24 = 1921 NAS – 67 = 4503 10 Y – .02 = 1.75 OIL – 2.09 = 31.30 GOLD + 17.10 = 1226.40   The G20 is meeting this weekend in Shanghai. The US will call on G20 countries later to use fiscal policy in order to boost global demand.  American officials will also urge all members to refrain from manipulating exchange rates for competitive purposes, in line with existing G20 commitments.   The world’s oil giants were meeting today. At a conference in Houston, Saudi oil minister Ali Al-Naimi, considered the world’s most powerful energy policymaker, said production cuts will not happen. Last week, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela proposed a freeze that would cap production at January levels. But Naimi said: “Freeze is the beginning of a process, and that means if we can get all the major producers to agree not to add additional balance, then this high inventory we have now will probably decline in due time. It’s going to take time. It is not like cutting production. That is not going to happen because not many countries are going to deliver even if they say they will cut production, they will not deliver. So there is no sense in wasting our time seeking production cuts.” Global production is projected to be 95 million barrels a day in …

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Financial Review

Laissez les Bons Temps Rouler

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-26-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-26-2016 DOW + 282 = 16,167 SPX + 26 = 1903 NAS + 49 = 4567 10 Y – .03 = 1.99% OIL + .11 = 30.45 GOLD + 11.80 = 1120.70   The Federal Reserve had always planned to pause after raising interest rates in December, but the question now is how long that break will last. Initial expectations were that the FOMC would raise rates again this March, but a downturn in the equity markets, a stronger dollar and weak inflation have led some to predict that another move may be months away. Investors may get some more insight as Fed officials gather today for a two-day session, their first policy-making meeting of 2016. For now, the Fed can simply say that they are data dependent and the 25 basis point increase in December has not had an effect on the economy. They might say that everything is basically good in the economy and the markets, if they get any mention at all, are just not looking at the right data.   In a recent speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley summed up the situation: “In terms of the economic outlook, the situation does not appear to have changed much since the last [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting. Some recent activity indicators have been on the softer side, pointing to a relatively weak fourth quarter for …

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Financial Review

Might Sound Crazy

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-22-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-22-2016 DOW + 210 = 16,093 SPX + 37 = 1906 NAS + 119 = 4591 10 Y + .03 =  2.05% OIL + 2.57 = 32.10 GOLD – 3.60 = 1098.80   Stock markets all over the world are in rally mode. European shares enjoyed the biggest two-day rally since 2011, while the euro approached a two-week low on the European Central Bank’s signal that it may bolster economic support as soon as March. Asian stocks climbed the most since September on speculation Japan and China may also take steps to calm markets.  Japan’s Nikkei (+5.9%) paced the gains in Asia as it posted its biggest gain in 4 1/2 months. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong gained 3.5%, and the Shanghai in China was up 1.25%. In Europe, France’s CAC (+3.1%) leads the charge. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 3.1 percent, rallying 5.1 percent in two days.   The Dow posted its first weekly gain in a month; not much, just 105 points, or 0.6%. After dropping earlier this week to 2014 lows, the S&P 500 has recovered in the past two sessions to end the week 1.4-percent higher. But the index is still down 7 percent in 2016 and remains at levels touched last August.   The 2016 Treasuries rally slowed this week on concern yields that fell to within about half a percentage point from a record low made the …

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Financial Review

Dark Clouds

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-12-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-12-2016   DOW + 117 = 16,516 SPX + 15 = 4658 NAS + 47 = 4685 10 Y – .06 = 2.10% OIL – .67 = 30.74 GOLD – 7.70  = 1087.50 The recent sell-off on Wall Street has some of the investment banks worried. For the past 7 years, JPMorgan Chase has seen every dip in the market as a buying opportunity. Now they are changing their tune and advising clients to sell any rally. A report from JPMorgan’s chief equity strategist cites several areas that are raising red flags, including: deteriorating technical indicators, expectations of anemic corporate earnings combined with the downward trajectory in U.S. manufacturing activity and a continued weakness in commodities, with oil dropping under $20 a barrel.   RBS, the Royal Bank of Scotland, says investors face a “cataclysmic year” where stock markets could fall by up to 20% and oil could slip as low as $10 a barrel. In a note to its clients the bank said: “Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.” It said the current situation was reminiscent of 2008, when the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank led to the global financial crisis. This time China could be the crisis point.   Goldman Sachs is warning that global stock markets may get worse. …

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Financial Review

Nice Little Planet

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-18-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-18-2015 DOW + 247 = 17,737 SPX + 33 = 2083 NAS + 89 = 5075 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.27% OIL + .03 = 40.70 GOLD + .20 = 1071.00 SILV – .01 = 14.28   Stocks rallied the most in four weeks, while Treasuries pared losses. The dollar traded near a seven-month high against the euro. Oil was little changed near a two-month low after dropping below $40 a barrel in New York for the first time since August as producers’ output swelled global inventories to a record. U.S. supplies climbed to the highest for the season in more than 80 years.   A predawn police raid on an apartment building in a Paris suburb led to the deaths of two extremists, including the alleged ringleader of last weekend’s attacks – although there is no official confirmation; the raid also resulted in seven arrests. Police also found plans in the apartment for more attacks on Paris. French President Hollande renewed his case for an extension to a state of emergency decreed after the attacks and for changes to the constitution that he said would make France safer. Meanwhile, a French aircraft carrier headed to the eastern Mediterranean to intensify the bombardment of ISIS positions in Syria.   Hacking collective Anonymous accessed and took down more than 5,500 social media accounts associated with ISIS. As part of its efforts, Anonymous published …

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Financial Review

Before the Deluge

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-01-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-01-2015 DOW – 12 = 16,272 SPX + 3 = 1923 NAS + 6 = 4627 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.04% OIL – .11 = 44.98 GOLD – 1.80 = 1114.50 SILV un = 14.63   Manufacturing grew in September at the slowest pace in more than two years. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index dropped to 50.2% last month from 51.1% in August, reflecting a stronger dollar and weaker global economy that is hurting U.S. exports of many major American-made goods. That’s the weakest reading since May 2013, although any reading above 50 indicates growth.   The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits rose by 10,000 to 277,000 in the week ended Sept. 26, but initial claims remain extremely low in a sign of steady improvement of the labor market. The average of new claims over the past month, meanwhile, fell by 1,000 to seasonally adjusted 270,500. The level of new claims sank below 300,000 in early March and has remained there for 30 straight weeks, a feat last accomplished in 1973, when the nation’s working population was 40% smaller. Tomorrow morning is the monthly jobs report from the Labor Department.   Construction spending increased 0.7% in August, and gained 13.7% over 12 months. Residential construction rose 1.3%, while nonresidential construction grew 0.3%. Construction of lodging climbed 2.8% and has climbed …

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Financial Review

Discretionary Reading

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-19-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-19-2015 DOW – 162 = 17,348 SPX – 17 = 2079 NAS – 40 = 5019 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.13% OIL – 2.02 = 40.60 GOLD + 16.60 = 1135.10 SILV + .44 = 15.41   A new CPI report this morning shows inflation remains muted. The consumer price index, a measure of prices at the retail level, rose 0.1% in July to mark the smallest increase in three months. Yet the cost of housing, the largest expense for most Americans, continued to rise, up 0.4% last month, reflecting the biggest gain in more than eight years. And housing expenses have climbed 3.1% in the past 12 months, the largest annual increase since 2008. The prices of most other consumer goods were little changed in July. Food prices climbed 0.2% while energy prices rose a smaller 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, so-called core consumer prices also advanced 0.1% in July. Aside from shelter, prices for clothes and medical care also rose.   Even though energy prices were up slightly in July, that might not last; eventually the price at the pump for gasoline should reflect the price of oil, which has now dropped to a 6 year low of $40.60 per barrel. Based upon historical pricing for oil and gas, we should be paying about $2.00 to $2.10 a gallon at the pump. Gas prices should …

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Financial Review

Crash

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-08-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 261 = 17,515 SPX – 34 = 2046 NAS – 87 = 4909 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.20% OIL – .68 = 51.65 GOLD + 3.00 = 1159.00 SILV + .08 = 15.22   The stock market crashed today. Before you accuse me of over exaggerating, I do not consider a 261 point drop on the Dow to be a crash; that’s just a down day, with a dollop of ugly. No, I mean the actual New York Stock Exchange crashed. The computers malfunctioned. Trading stopped for 3.5 hours. Open orders were cancelled. Other orders were re-routed. This was an actual technical crash. It started with a few squirrelly trades in the morning, and at 11:32 AM, the New York Stock Exchange surrendered, halted trading, and tried to reboot the computers.   And for the most part, it did not stop trading in NYSE listed stocks. The other exchanges picked up the trades. First, the Nasdaq did not crash; next the BATS system just re-routed trades, ARCA picked up more trades, and the Philly exchange handled some trades as well. So, in many ways, it was a typical trading day. The New York Stock Exchange is really more of a TV studio these days than a central force behind buy and sell orders. CNBC broadcasts there; tourists gawk; all the trades are electronic, in a room …

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Financial Review

Fuld Again

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-29-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 115 = 18,010 SPX – 13 = 2107 NAS – 27 = 5070 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.09% OIL + 2.62 = 60.30 GOLD + 2.20 = 1191.00 SILV + .04 = 16.80   The Dow Jones industrial average ended about 115 points lower after falling more than 150 points during the session. The blue chip index posted a 0.9 percent gain for May. The S&P 500 ended up 1.1 percent for the month, and the Nasdaq outperformed with a 2.6 percent monthly gain.   Year to date the Dow Industrials are up about 1 percent, the S&P 500 is up about 2 percent, and the Nasdaq is up about 7%. This has been an extremely tight trading range to start the year. Another way to look at it is consolidation. And at some point the markets will break out of this tight range. The question is whether it will be a breakout or a breakdown. And if you’re looking for a divergent signal, the Dow Transports traded down for the day, for a 3.4 percent loss in May. The index is down 9 percent for the year.   Today’s big economic report was that first quarter Gross Domestic Product in the U.S. shrank at a 0.7 percent annualized rate, revised lower from a previously reported 0.2 percent gain. The revisions showed the trade gap widened more …

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