Financial Review

Fuld Again

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-29-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 115 = 18,010 SPX – 13 = 2107 NAS – 27 = 5070 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.09% OIL + 2.62 = 60.30 GOLD + 2.20 = 1191.00 SILV + .04 = 16.80   The Dow Jones industrial average ended about 115 points lower after falling more than 150 points during the session. The blue chip index posted a 0.9 percent gain for May. The S&P 500 ended up 1.1 percent for the month, and the Nasdaq outperformed with a 2.6 percent monthly gain.   Year to date the Dow Industrials are up about 1 percent, the S&P 500 is up about 2 percent, and the Nasdaq is up about 7%. This has been an extremely tight trading range to start the year. Another way to look at it is consolidation. And at some point the markets will break out of this tight range. The question is whether it will be a breakout or a breakdown. And if you’re looking for a divergent signal, the Dow Transports traded down for the day, for a 3.4 percent loss in May. The index is down 9 percent for the year.   Today’s big economic report was that first quarter Gross Domestic Product in the U.S. shrank at a 0.7 percent annualized rate, revised lower from a previously reported 0.2 percent gain. The revisions showed the trade gap widened more …

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Financial Review

Inmates Run the Asylum

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-15-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 20 = 18,272 SPX + 1 = 2122 NAS – 2 = 5048 10 YR YLD – .10 = 2.14% OIL – .01 = 59.87   The S&P 500 index hit a record high close for the second day in a row. The S&P added 0.3 percent this week for its first back-to-back weekly gain in more than a month. The Nasdaq posted a small gain for the week.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained about 0.4 percent for the week. The Dow is close to another record. The old record is 18,288 from March 2.   So, to see if this little rally has legs, we can look at the Dow Jones Transportation Index, because according to Dow Theory, if the industrials are performing, they have to ship their products to market, so the Dow Transports should confirm any move by the Industrials. We are not getting confirmation. Transports topped out in November, and then there were 4 failed attempts to break through the high of 9310. And since March, the Transports have been consolidating lower. Now this doesn’t mean that the Industrials can’t hit a new record on Monday; after all the index is within spitting distance of the old record; but if the rally has legs, we would need to see Transports exhibit some signs of life. When we see a divergence, the we can …

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Financial Review

Generally Quite High

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-06-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 86 = 17,841 SPX – 9 = 2080 NAS – 19 = 4919 10 YR YLD + .07 = 2.24% OIL + .30 = 60.70 GOLD – 1.80 = 1192.20 SILV – .02 = 16.59   A worldwide sell-off in government bonds deepened today. Benchmark 10-year Bunds now trade at 0.53%, having hit a record low of 0.05% last month, when many expected them to turn negative. For German bund investors that represents a 12% loss over the past 2 weeks, or roughly 25 years of yield just went down the drain. In the past month, the yield on French 10 year debt is up 42 basis points, on 10-year Italian bonds the yield is up 62 basis points, Australia up 62 basis points, Hong Kong up 29 basis points. And here in the US, the 10 year Treasury yield has jumped from 1.9% a month ago, to 2.24% today. Around the world yields have been rising and bond prices have been falling.   Meanwhile, oil prices have been rising. Crude prices hit fresh 2015 highs; earlier in the session prices topped $62 a barrel before sliding back. This follow a 22% gain in April. A couple of reports show oil supplies dropping for the first time this year. U.S. oil inventories fell 3.9 million barrels last week, the first weekly decline since Dec. 26, according to data provided …

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Financial Review

How to Eat a Bank

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-10-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 98 = 18,057 SPX + 10 = 2102 NAS + 21 = 4995 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.95% OIL + .99 = 51.78 GOLD + 13.80 = 1208.30 SILV + .34 = 16.59   For the week, the Dow is up 1.6 percent, the S&P is up 1.7 percent and the Nasdaq is up 2.3 percent. Both the Dow and S&P notched their second straight week of gains.   Oil posted its fourth consecutive weekly gain. The oil rally coincided with a stronger dollar, which weighs on dollar denominated commodities. In March, the prices the U.S. paid for imported goods and services fell for the eighth time in the last nine months, even though the cost of foreign oil actually rose for the second straight time. Import prices dropped 0.3% last month, or an even steeper 0.4% excluding fuel.   The sharply lower cost of imported goods is a double-edged sword. We may pay less for commodities and all sorts of goods such as cell phones and electronics; and that can stretch paychecks. Next Tuesday the Commerce Department reports on retail sales and we’ll find out if shoppers are in a spending mood or a savings mood. A strong dollar is also great if you plan to travel abroad; they say April in Paris is pretty nice. Yet the strong dollar also makes US goods and services more …

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Financial Review

While the Getting is Good

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 56 = 17958 SPX + 9 = 2091 NAS + 23 = 4974 10 YR YLD + .06 = 1.96% OIL + .37 = 50.79 GOLD – 8.70 = 1194.50 SILV – .36 = 16.25   Initial claims for unemployment benefits increased 14,000 to 281,000 in the week ending April 4th.  Over the past 4 weeks, jobless claims have averaged 282,500 a week; the lowest level in 15 years. While companies are maintaining headcounts, job listings also have climbed. Openings rose to 5.1 million in February, the most since January 2001, according to the JOLTS report on Tuesday.   Wholesale inventories rose 0.3% in February as wholesale sales fell 0.2%, perhaps a sign that companies experienced less demand in late winter that could cause them to temporarily scale back production.   In a televised speech today, Iran’s  supreme leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Tehran would agree to a final nuclear accord with the US and five other nations only if all sanctions over its disputed nuclear work were lifted.  In remarks apparently meant to keep hardline loyalists on side, he warned about the “devilish” intentions of the United States. Meanwhile, Iran’s oil minister, speaking today in China said that OPEC would “coordinate” to accommodate Iran’s return to oil markets without causing a price crash.   Samsung Electronics expects to ship record numbers of its new Galaxy S6 smartphone after it goes on …

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Financial Review

Fixing the Unbroken

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-31-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 200 = 17,776 SPX – 18 = 2067 NAS – 46 = 4900 10 YR YLD – .03 = 1.93% OIL – 1.15 = 47.53 GOLD – 2.30 = 1183.70 SILV – .06 = 16.73   The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index showed steady gains in January, up 0.9% from December. Compared to January 2014, prices were up 4.6%.  In Phoenix, resale home prices were unchanged from December to January, and posted a year-over-year gain of 2.6%.   The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index moved up to 101.3% in March from an upwardly revised 98.8 in February. The present situation index, a measure of current conditions, actually fell to 109.1 from 112.1. Yet the future expectations index increased to 96.0 from 90.   We’ve seen quite a bit of volatility in the markets lately. Today marks the 16 session in the month of March where the Dow Industrial Average has closed with a change in excess of 100 points. That is the second most of any month in history; following 20 triple digit moves in October 2008.   Sell in May and go away. You’ve probably heard this stock market advice. The idea is that you can divide the year into the best six months and the worst six months for the stock market; and we are now heading into the worst six months. Like most indicators, …

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Financial Review

The New Norml

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-27-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 34 = 17,712 SPX + 4 = 2061 NAS + 27 = 4891 10 YR YLD – .06 = 1.95% OIL – 3.01 = 48.42 GOLD – 5.70 = 1199.40 SILV – .13 = 17.07   Modest gains on Wall Street today, but not nearly enough to make up for the four previous days of losses. It wound up being the second-worst week for the market so far this year. The Dow Jones industrial average remains down slightly for 2015, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 index is essentially flat. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.2 percent, the Dow lost 2.3 percent and the Nasdaq declined 2.7 percent. The semiconductor sector was a leader today after a report that Intel is in talks to buy rival chipmaker Altera. Intel shares were up 6%; Altera shares were up 28%.   Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.2 percent annual rate last quarter. This was the Commerce Department’s third estimate of GDP, and it was unchanged from last month’s estimate.  Economic growth cooled in the fourth quarter and after-tax corporate profits recorded their biggest drop since early 2011, as a strong dollar dented the earnings of multinational corporations. The fourth quarter GDP was down from a very strong third quarter reading of 5% growth. The first estimate on the first quarter will be published April 29th.   Profits originating outside the U.S. …

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Financial Review

Gulliver’s Travels

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 92 = 18,209 SPX + 5 = 2115 NAS + 7 = 4968 10 YR YLD – .07 = 1.99% OIL – .29 = 49.16 GOLD – .50 = 1202.30 SILV – .01 = 16.41   The Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 hit record high closes. The Nasdaq rose for the tenth straight session, its longest streak since July 2009. The Russell 2000 Index of small cap stocks closed at a record 1233.   Fed Chair Janet Yellen testified today before the Senate banking committee in her semi-annual report on monetary policy. Yellen said the Fed is preparing to consider interest rate hikes “on a meeting-by-meeting basis.” Yellen described how the Fed’s rate-setting policy committee will likely proceed in coming months: first by removing the word “patient” in describing its approach to rate hikes, then entering a phase in which rate hikes are possible at any meeting. That approach could open the door to an interest rate increase as early as June, but short-term rate futures contracts showed traders had shifted their expectations of an initial rate hike from September to October. And the yield on the ten year Treasury note slipped down below 2%. So, the markets players are placing their bets.   Yellen said she felt labor markets and other key economic indicators “have been increasing at a solid rate.” However, she said she still feels the job …

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Financial Review

A Question for the New AG

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-10-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 139 = 17,868 SPX + 21 = 2068 NAS + 61 = 4787 10 YR YLD + .04 = 1.99% OIL – 2.10 = 50.76 GOLD – 5.00 = 1234.70 SILV – .06 = 17.01 Small-business sentiment slipped in January on a decline in optimism over sales growth and business conditions, according to a gauge released Tuesday. The National Federation of Independent Business said its small-business optimism index fell 2.5 points to 97.9, with seven out of 10 components declining.   Good news if you are looking for a job. The Labor Department said job openings surged to 5.03 million in December, the highest level since January 2001, from 4.85 million in November. Hiring jumped to a seven-year high and the number of job seekers for every open position, a key measure of labor market slack, fell to 1.73 in December, the lowest since 2007. The bad news is that there are still about 9 million people looking for a job.   Wholesale inventories barely rose in December, up just 0.1%. Together with data last week showing a 0.3% fall in manufacturing inventories in December, today’s report suggests the boost to GDP growth from restocking in the fourth quarter was probably not as large as initially thought.   Halliburton is cutting as many as 6,500 jobs. The oil company, facing up to the reality of crude oil prices, announced …

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Financial Review

A Grain of Salt

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-05-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 211 = 17,884 SPX + 21 = 2062 NAS + 48 = 4765 10 YR YLD + .02 = 1.82% OIL + 2.26 = 50.71 GOLD – 4.40 = 1265.50 SILV – .11 = 17.32   More people sought unemployment benefits last week, but the number of applicants remained near historic lows in a positive sign for job growth. The Labor Department says that weekly applications rose 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 278,000. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, fell 6,500 to 292,750. That average has plunged 15 percent over the past 12 months.   Worker productivity declined in the fourth quarter of 2014, while labor costs increased. Productivity, the amount of output per hour of work, fell at 1.8 percent rate in the fourth quarter after rising at a 3.7 percent rate in the third quarter. Labor costs increased at a 2.7 percent rate in the fourth quarter after having fallen at a 2.3 percent rate in the third quarter. The drop in productivity and rise in labor costs are reflected in the fact that the growth in overall output slowed in the fourth quarter.   The U.S. trade deficit jumped 17.1% in December to a two-year high. The nation’s trade gap jumped to a seasonally adjusted $46 billion in December from a revised $39 billion in the prior month.   If Anthem is your health …

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