Financial Review

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http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-01-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-01-2016 DOW – 17 = 16,449 SPX – 0.86 = 1939 NAS + 6 = 4620 10 Y + .04 = 1.97% OIL – 2.23 = 31.39 GOLD + 10.20 = 1129.00   Following the S&P’s worst January since 2009 ( down -5.1%), and a volatile month for oil prices, about a fifth of S&P 500 companies will report earnings this week, while lots of economic data (manufacturing figures, auto sales and Friday’s jobs report) could also help determine the future direction of stocks. The consensus estimate calls for about 185,000 net new jobs in January, down from 292,000 in December. And just a reminder that last Friday brought the first look at fourth quarter GDP, which grew at an anemic 0.7% annual rate in the fourth quarter. That’s a bad quarter to be sure, and real GDP is up only 1.8% from a year ago. That’s a weak year judged by the US postwar average of 3.1%, but is not far from the 2.1% annual growth we’ve been averaging since 2009. The Atlanta Fed model’s initial estimate for first-quarter growth has been published; the “Nowcast” of first-quarter growth calls for 1.2% annualized growth. Weak, but not recessionary.   Also on Friday, the Bank of Japan moved to negative interest rates; this Wednesday BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is scheduled to speak. Today, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi addressed …

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Financial Review

Thanks Hank

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-07-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 272 = 16,719 SPX – 29 = 1935 NAS – 69 = 4385 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.35% OIL – 1.91 = 88.43 GOLD + 1.50 = 1209.30 SILV – .16 = 17.29 The S&P 500 dropped below its 50-day moving average last week and has yet to move back above that level. Coincidentally, the S&P 500 has been sliding for a few weeks, going back to September 19, which was the day of the Alibaba IPO, just coincidentally. The Dow is also trading below its 50 day moving average. Welcome to the start of earnings season. In the past 3 months the US dollar has jumped by 8% against the euro. That makes American goods more expensive relative to European goods. And it wasn’t just the dollar against the Euro, but against a basket of foreign currencies. It is estimated that a 5% rise in the dollar versus the euro results in a drop of about $1 for full-year Standard & Poor’s 500 Index per-share earnings; current estimates for the S&P are running around $118. Partly because of the dollar and the related decline in oil prices, earnings estimates have seen one of the largest downward revisions over the last few years aside from the weather-beaten first quarter of this year. Earnings-per-share are projected to have grown 4.9% in the third quarter, that’s down from 7.8% earnings …

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