Financial Review

Ten Years After

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-14-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:11 — 7.5MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…US-China tariffs back on. Manafort flips. 10y hits 3% – odds on for more rate hikes. Florence crawls to Carolinas. Mangkhut roars through Philippines. 10 years after Lehman. Financial Review  by Sinclair Noe for 09-14-2018

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Financial Review

Eight Year Anniversary

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-15-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSEconomic data: producer price flat, retail sales down, current account deficit down, industrial production down. BoE stands pat; SNB too. The 8th anniversary of the Lehman Brothers collapse. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-15-2016

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Author Interviews

Oonagh McDonald

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/OONAGH_MCDONALD-12-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 19:50 — 9.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSSinclair Noe audio interview with Oonagh McDonald, author of “Lehman Brothers: A Crisis of Value”

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Financial Review

Seven Years

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-15-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-15-2015 DOW + 228 = 16,599 SPX + 25 = 1978 NAS + 54 = 4860 10 YR YLD + .09 = 2.28% OIL + .38 = 44.97 GOLD – 3.30 = 1106.10 SILV – .01 = 14.51   Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services increased 0.4 percent in August after an upwardly revised 0.6 percent increase in July. These so-called core retail sales, which correspond closely to the consumer spending component of gross domestic product, provided the latest sign of sturdy economic momentum and suggested the recent stock market sell-off had little immediate impact on U.S. household spending.   A separate report from the Federal Reserve, however, showed manufacturing output fell a sharper-than-expected 0.5 percent as auto production slid, after a rise of 0.9 percent in July. Excluding autos, factory output was unchanged. The manufacturing sector has been struggling, faced with the headwinds of a strong dollar, slack economies overseas and lower oil prices.   While most economists think the Fed may wait to raise interest rates, and futures contracts show only a 30 percent probability that the Fed will boost rates on Thursday, the Treasury market is bracing for a hike. Treasuries tumbled, lifting the two-year note yield to the highest since April 2011. Treasury two-year note yields rose eight basis points, or 0.08 percentage point, to 0.81 percent. Benchmark 10-year note yields rose nine basis …

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Financial Review

Lie or Be Lehman

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-27-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 121 = 18,162 SPX + 19 = 2123 NAS + 73 = 5106 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.13% OIL – .38 = 57.65 GOLD + .20 = 1189.00 SILV – .07 = 16.75   Yesterday the Dow posted a triple digit loss, today a triple digit gain; not enough to cover yesterday’s losses. The Nasdaq was higher on strength in semiconductor stocks; the Nasdaq posted a new record high close, taking out the high from April 24. The dollar was slightly stronger, oil was down again.   Severe storms and devastating floods over the weekend in Texas and Oklahoma have killed at least 19 people. Another 14 people are missing in Texas, including eight members of two families whose vacation home was swept away. The flooding has also resulted in complications for business travelers. About 11 inches of rain fell in Houston on Monday while parts of Austin have been hit by as much as 7 inches. Helicopter crews in both cities rescued people who had been stranded in cars and on top of buildings. The National Weather Service issued a new flash flood warning today.   The IRS says tax return information for about 100,000 U.S. taxpayers was illegally accessed by cyber criminals over the past four months. The stolen information included tax returns and other tax information on file with the IRS. The IRS said …

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Financial Review

It’s Just a Matter of Time

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-15-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 43 = 17,031 SPX – 1 = 1984 NAS – 48 = 4518 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.59% OIL – .17 = 92.75 GOLD + 4.40 = 1233.70 SILV + .04 = 18.76 The Nasdaq just went south today; it was the worst day since July. I’m not sure there is a good explanation, but some of the excuses were entertaining. One idea is the Alibaba IPO is causing traders to rotate from certain stocks in preparation. Yea, sure. The Federal Reserve FOMC is meeting this week to determine monetary policy. We know the Fed is headed toward the end of QE next month; they are on track to end their massive purchases of mortgage backed securities and Treasuries; they will probably issue some guidance, or hints about when they will raise the target on interest rates. The general expectation is that the federal funds rate will go from near zero to 3.5% by the end of 2017, with the first increases in about 6 to 9 months. The two day FOMC meeting concludes Wednesday; the FOMC will issue a statement and then Janet Yellen will hold a press conference. Also Wednesday, the Fed’s economic forecasts will for the first time offer estimates for growth, unemployment, inflation and interest rates in 2017. New projections will also be given for 2014, 2015 and 2016. The data will offer some …

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Uncategorized

Friday, September 13, 2013 – Five Years After

Five Years After by Sinclair Noe DOW + 75 = 15,376SPX + 4 = 1687NAS + 6 = 372210 YR YLD – .02 = 2.88%OIL – .39 = 108.21GOLD + 6.90 = 1328.90SILV + .53 = 22.37 The war hasn’t started…, yet. That’s good. Peace talks continued in Geneva today. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, and somehow at the peace table was Henry Kissinger, or maybe that was just an apparition; the ghost of Salvador Allende; nope, it was Henry. Anyway, no cruise missiles flying, no poison gas bombs exploding. It’s a good day. The road to peace is full of potholes, and one of the biggest obstacles is the time to round up the poison gas in Syria and get rid of it, against the backdrop of a fast moving kaleidoscope of warring factions. Even in a tranquil setting, the disposal of poison gas is apparently a momentous task, but Assad has signed the Chemical Weapons Convention treaty to get rid of the poison gas. When the convention came into force in 1997, participating countries agreed to destroy their stockpiles within 10 years, with an option to apply for a five-year extension. Five countries – the US, Russia, South Korea, India and Albania – all missed the main 2007 deadline. Two years ago, the United States, Russia and Libya were granted further extensions to a previously agreed final deadline for destroying their weapons. There is probably some gas in Libya that isn’t fully …

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Uncategorized

Tuesday, September 10, 2011 – Infinite Monkey Diplomacy Theorem

Infinite Monkey Diplomacy Theorem by Sinclair Noe DOW + 127 = 15,191SPX + 12 = 1683NAS + 22 = 372910 YR YLD + .06 = 2.96%OIL – 2.29 = 107.23GOLD – 23.20 = 1364.30SILV – .75 = 23.07 The war hasn’t started…, yet. We had an off the cuff comment from Secretary of State John Kerry that set off a new peace plan. Kerry told reporters in London that President Bashar al-Assad of Syria could avert a strike if he turned over his chemical weapons stockpile within a week, adding that such an outcome was unlikely. This is apparently a new diplomatic policy based upon the infinite monkey theorem; which postulates that if you had a roomful of monkeys with typewriters, the monkeys would almost surely, eventually type out the complete works of William Shakespeare. In this context, the monkey is not an actual monkey but a metaphor for an abstract device or perhaps a Secretary of State, and given enough time to talk he would almost surely, eventually stumble across a peace plan. Last night his apparently off-the-cuff proposal had gained broad support, including a warm welcome from both Syria and Russia, which said it would bring Syria’s chemical weapons under international control. France has introduced a proposal with the UN. Kerry has denied the whole thing, calling the remark nothing more than a rhetorical exercise. Methinks he doth protest too much; for what is politics but a rhetorical exercise? If you don’t like the infinite monkey theorem, then …

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Tuesday, June 5, 2012 – Waiting for Euro-Failure – by Sinclair Noe

DOW + 26 = 12,127 SPX + 7 = 1285NAS + 18 = 277810 YR YLD +.03 = 1.56% OIL – .23 = 83.75GOLD – 1.40 = 1617.90SILV +.27 = 28.63PLAT + 10.00 = 1444.00 So, the G-7, the Group of 7 countries conferred on the Euro-zone’s debt crisis; Spain announced it was losing access to credit markets; the situation appears bad. So, the G-7 finance chiefs came riding to the rescue. And they achieved almost zero. Spain had a real estate bubble. Spanish banks are loaded down with bad debt. The premium investors demand to hold its 10-year Spanish debt over the German equivalent hit a euro era high last week on concerns it will eventually have to take a Greek-style bailout. Today, Spain’s treasury minister said Spanish banks should be recapitalized through European mechanisms, in other words the Spanish banks need a bailout and Spain can’t bail them out; this was a significant departure from the previous government line that Spain could raise the money on its own. And then Spanish government sources said ehhh, we’re not sure about a bailout. And the G-7 did almost zero. Observers of the G-7 conference say that there was talk about a bigger solution, a bigger response from the politicians in the form of a stronger economic union; and the talk was that it would probably take a few months to figure it out, maybe a few years; and it doesn’t look like there is a quick fix. The ECB holds …

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