Financial Review

Still Too Hot

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-21-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Oil stockpiles drop and oil prices drop – bears in charge. Drug prices zoom on dereg draft. Repeal and replace unveiling tomorrow – what’s not to hate? Opioids ubiquitous. Existing home sales, tight inventory, higher prices. Bank lending tightens. We’re number 18. Kalanick’s ride ends. Nike goes Amazon. Sears Canada goes bust. UPS’ Christmas gift to us all. London Whale blames Jamie Dimon. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-21-2017

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Financial Review

Before the Deluge

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-01-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-01-2015 DOW – 12 = 16,272 SPX + 3 = 1923 NAS + 6 = 4627 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.04% OIL – .11 = 44.98 GOLD – 1.80 = 1114.50 SILV un = 14.63   Manufacturing grew in September at the slowest pace in more than two years. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index dropped to 50.2% last month from 51.1% in August, reflecting a stronger dollar and weaker global economy that is hurting U.S. exports of many major American-made goods. That’s the weakest reading since May 2013, although any reading above 50 indicates growth.   The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits rose by 10,000 to 277,000 in the week ended Sept. 26, but initial claims remain extremely low in a sign of steady improvement of the labor market. The average of new claims over the past month, meanwhile, fell by 1,000 to seasonally adjusted 270,500. The level of new claims sank below 300,000 in early March and has remained there for 30 straight weeks, a feat last accomplished in 1973, when the nation’s working population was 40% smaller. Tomorrow morning is the monthly jobs report from the Labor Department.   Construction spending increased 0.7% in August, and gained 13.7% over 12 months. Residential construction rose 1.3%, while nonresidential construction grew 0.3%. Construction of lodging climbed 2.8% and has …

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Financial Review

Chips and Salsa

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-16-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:03 — 6.0MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 70 = 18,120 SPX + 16 = 2124 NAS + 64 = 5163 10 YR YLD un = 2.35% OIL + .13 = 51.04 GOLD – 4.30 = 1145.60 SILV – .12 = 15.08   The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record high, taking out the old record from last month. After hours of debate, Greek lawmakers passed a bailout agreement late last night. Eurozone finance ministers agreed in principle to extend a €7 billion-euro bridge loan to Greece. The loan would allow Greece to pay some of its outstanding bills, meet a scheduled repayment to the ECB next week and open the door to securing a third bailout package. Up next: the German Bundestag will vote on Friday whether or not to approve the new rescue, however, talks over securing a new €86B bailout are likely to last for another four weeks.  European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he views the country’s place in the euro as secure. Greek banks are still closed for the time being.   Yesterday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said once again that the Fed is likely to raise interest rates at some point in 2015. Yellen told the House Financial Services Committee that the first hike since 2006 “will signal how much progress the economy has made in healing from the trauma of the financial crisis.” Today, Yellen repeated her semi-annual testimony to …

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Monday, March 31, 2014 – Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Worst

Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Worstby Sinclair Noe DOW + 134 = 16,457SPX + 14 = 1872NAS + 43 = 419810 YR YLD + .01 = 2.72%OIL – .18 = 101.49GOLD – 10.10 = 1285.80SILV – .06 = 19.86 Wrapping up the first quarter let’s go to the scorecard. The Dow Industrials lost 121 points in the quarter but gained 136 points in the month of March; the S&P 500 finished the quarter up 24 points and up 13 points in March; the Nasdaq Comp gained 22 points in the quarter and lost 110 points in March; oil prices are up $3.50 a barrel since the start of the year and down .42 in March; gold gained $74.80 for the quarter but lost $41.90 the last month; silver added .33 for the quarter but down $1.44 for the month of March. The first quarter marked the fifth straight quarter of gains for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite indices. Last week’s drop of 2.8% in the Nasdaq Comp was the first such drop since October 2012, or the first time the Nasdaq dropped by 2.8% in 77 weeks. Did you see 60 Minutes last night? They interviewed Michael Lewis, who is an excellent financial writer; he has a new book called “Flash Boys” and it deals with high frequency traders on Wall Street. They tried to present the idea that they had just discovered the market is rigged. It is rigged, and it has been rigged for …

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Monday, September 30, 2013 – Politically Dysfunctional Insanity

Politically Dysfunctional Insanityby Sinclair Noe DOW – 128 = 15,129SPX – 10 = 1681NAS – 10 = 377110 YR YLD – .04 = 2.61%OIL – .56 = 102.31GOLD – 8.30 = 1328.90SILV – .07 = 21.81 We’ll get to the shutdown and all that fun politically dysfunctional insanity in just a moment, but first we need to wrap up the third quarter. The Dow Industrials are up about 260 points for the third quarter, and the S&P500 is up 80 points. Year to date the Dow has gained about 2000 points and the S&P has gained about 260. Since the start of the year, the yield on the 10 year Treasury note has climbed from around 1.75% to 2.51% at the end of the second quarter (briefly touching 3%). Oil prices dropped from around $110 in just about a week’s worth of trading, but prices are up about $10 dollars since the start of the year, and down about $1 for 3Q. If you’re wondering how the Sell in May idea has worked out, well the Dow is down about 130 points from the May sell signal and the S&P is down 35 points. So, Sell in May is looking good and could look a whole lot better if the government shuts down in a little less than 5 hours. Tomorrow, the fourth quarter begins. A potential federal government shutdown looms at midnight.So, the question is whether underperforming Wall Street traders will push prices higher in the face of government …

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Tuesday, September 24, 2013 – Give Me Energy

Give Me Energy by Sinclair Noe DOW – 66 = 15,334SPX – 4 = 1697NAS + 2 = 376810 YR YLD – .05 = 2.65%OIL – .30 = 103.29GOLD + .80 = 1324.10SILV + .10 = 21.84 The big unknown this week is the possibility of a government shutdown Sunday night. A few moments on that and then I’ll get to my main topic here, which deals with energy. The shutdown could happen; with Congress, anything could happen. I’ve been trying to figure out the likelihood, and I don’t think it is likely, although it could still happen. Of course the battle is over defunding Obamacare. And I remember the old rules for how a bill becomes law, and the checks and balances of our democratic republic. The Affordable Care Act was duly enacted by a majority of both houses of Congress, signed into law by the President, and even upheld by the Supreme Court. The Constitution of the United States does not allow a majority of the House of Representatives to repeal the law of the land by defunding it. If that were the case, no law is safe. A majority of the House could get rid of unemployment insurance, federal aid to education, Social Security, Medicare, or any other law they didn’t like merely by deciding not to fund them. If that were the case, then you could control everything in government with a simple majority in the House of Representatives; it would render every other branch of …

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Thursday, September 19, 2013 – Shine On You Crazy Dimons

Shine On You Crazy Dimons by Sinclair Noe DOW – 40 = 15,636SPX – 3 = 1722NAS + 5 = 378910 YR YLD +.06 = 2.75%OIL + .04 = 106.43GOLD – .20 = 1366.10SILV + .13 = 23.19 No taper, despite hints and great expectations. Having announced the intention to taper, ultimately, a few weeks later, the proposal was shelved. The reasons given were concerns about the strength of the economic recovery and the impact of high rates on the ability of an over-indebted world to continue to meet its obligations. All these factors were largely unchanged between the time of the original announcement and the repudiation. What did change was the taper tantrum, the unpleasant market reaction to the hint of taper. Bond yields rose sharply; the Fed’s tough talk has already led to a 140 basis point rise in 10-year Treasury yields, which would be roughly equivalent to six rate increases; that in turn resulted in pushing mortgage rates higher, putting a crimp in the housing recovery. Today we learned home sales were up. Sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly rose in August to the highest level in more than six years as buyers rushed to lock in interest rates before they jumped even higher. The labor “participation rate” dropped to 63.2% in July, the lowest level since the late 1970s. The rate for men is at an all-time low. The unemployment rate has been falling, but chiefly because so many people are giving up hope and dropping …

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Tuesday, September 17, 2013 – Everything is on Hold at a Bad Level

Everything is on Hold at a Bad Level by Sinclair Noe DOW + 34 = 15,529SPX + 7 = 1704NAS + 27 = 374510 YR YLD – .02 = 2.84%OIL + .22 = 105.64GOLD – 3.90 = 1311.00 SILV- .08 = 21.84 Market players are focusing on the Fed right now. Yesterday, Larry Summers withdrew his name from consideration to be the next Fed Chairman; maybe it doesn’t matter who the next Fed chair is, they are likely to continue on the same path. Today, Jim Rogers said the role of Fed Chair is nothing more than a lapdog for the establishment. Harsh, but not necessarily inaccurate. Still, the Fed Chair is a powerful role and it looks like a woman almost nobody knows will soon take over. Give yourself 3 points if you know her name and her current job title. (Janet Yellen, Fed Vice Chair) The Federal Open Market Committee, the FOMC, was meeting today; they’ll continue meeting tomorrow to determine monetary policy. It’s widely expected the FOMC will announce taper, in part because of logistics. The FOMC meets tomorrow, another meeting in October, another meeting in December, and then Bernanke retires. Market participants are expecting taper, and the Fed usually avoids surprises. September and December are the two most likely times for an announcement, in part because the October FOMC meeting does not include a scheduled press conference to explain any significant changes; also October will be right in line with budget battles If there is a …

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Tuesday, August 27, 2013 – The Drums of War

The Drums of War by Sinclair Noe DOW – 170 = 14,776SPX – 26 = 1630NAS – 79 = 357810 YR YLD – .07 = 2.71%OIL + 3.34 = 109.55GOLD + 11.00 = 1417.00SILV + .19 = 24.62 Yesterday Secretary of State Kerry laid out the case against Syria. Today we learned the US could be ready to take military action as soon as Thursday. Defense Secretary Hagel today said: “We have moved assets in place to be able to fulfil and comply with whatever option the president wishes to take.” This follows last Wednesday’s suspected chemical attack near the Syrian capital, Damascus, which reportedly killed more than 300 people; more than 3,600 people were treated for nerve agents, and by some estimates the death toll is now approaching 500. You’ve surely seen the grisly videos. They are compelling, but in light of the faulty intelligence that preceded the war in Iraq, there is a call for stronger proof. White House spokesman Jay Carney says a report on chemical weapons use being compiled by the US intelligence community and will be published this week. There is not a requirement for Congressional approval for the president to initiate military action including strikes; rather the War Powers Act requires congressional notification, and that has been happening; of course questions of legality will be debated. The UK Parliament is to be recalled on Thursday to discuss possible responses. Prime Minister David Cameron said the world could not stand idly by after seeing appalling …

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Tuesday, August 13, 2013 – Metric Disconnects

Metric Disconnects by Sinclair Noe DOW + 31 = 15451SPX + 4 = 1694NAS + 14 = 368410 YR YLD + .11 = 2.71%OIL + .42 = 106.53GOLD – 15.90 = 1322.40SILV + .03 = 21.56 Retail sales rose 0.2% in July, following an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in June; retail sales are now up for 4 consecutive months. The retail sales report is important because consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the economy. We’ve heard that so frequently that it sounds like a cliché, but when we spend, that money circulates through the economy and it is the vital life blood of the economy. Areas showing gains included restaurants and bars, grocery stores and sporting goods outlets. Within general merchandise, department stores showed a 0.6 percent increase in sales last month Another Commerce Department report today showed inventories at US companies were little changed. Merchants had enough goods on hand to last 1.29 months at the current sales pace in June. Atlanta Federal Reserve bank President Dennis Lockhart says he thinks policy makers should move cautiously this year to scale back its bond buying program. Lockhart says the Fed might make its first reduction before the end of the year, maybe as soon as September, and that it should be thought of as a cautious first step. So, Lockhart was a bit more dovish than other Fed policy makers of late, and as he made the comments, small losses on Wall Street gave way to modest gains. The …

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