Financial Review

Your Money and Your Life

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-26-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS  ……..Oil prices on the table in Algiers. BOJ looks at less than zero. The biggest risk – China. New home sales drop. Deutsche Bank stumbles badly. Wells Fargo Round Two. Mylan skips over inversion. Takata looks to BK. Traffic HERE. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-26-2016

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Financial Review

ECB Day

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-21-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSECB holds on to ultra-loose policy, earnings season, strange moves in commodities, VW will pay for un-clean diesel, nobody invests anymore. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-21-2016

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Financial Review

Waiting for the Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-03-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 03-03-2016 DOW + 44 = 16,943 SPX + 6 = 1993 NAS + 4 = 4707 10 Y – .02 = 1.83% OIL + .05 = 34.71 GOLD + 24.40 = 1264.90   We have a batch of economic reports, so we’ll run through the data and then break down the implications. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index dropped 0.1 point to 53.4%.Any reading over 50 signals expansion. ISM’s production gauge rose 3.9 points to 57.8%.Growth in the services sector has been expanding at a slower pace for the past four months, and that is now showing up as contraction in service sector employment. Details from the services survey showed the employment index declined to 49.7 from 52.1 in January, indicating companies last month started cutting staff.   The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits rose by 6,000 to 278,000 in the last week of February, but the overall pace of layoffs still hovered near postrecession lows. The average of new claims over the past four weeks, meanwhile, fell by 1,750 to 270,250 and hit a three-month low. In a separate report, global out placement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas said U.S.-based companies announced 61,599 job cuts last month, down from 75,114 in January. Layoffs remained concentrated in the energy sector. Tomorrow the Labor Department will publish the monthly non-farm payroll report; look for a …

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Financial Review

The Vultures Eat

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-29-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-29-2016   DOW – 123 = 16,516 SPX – 15 = 1932 NAS – 32 = 4557 10 Y – .02 = 1.74% OIL + 1.12 = 33.90 GOLD + 16.50 = 1239.30   If you missed the past month, you might think things were calm on Wall Street for the month of February. For the month, the Dow rose 0.3 percent, the S&P 500 lost 0.4 percent and the Nasdaq lost 1.2 percent. This marks the first time since 2011 that major indexes posted three consecutive monthly declines.   Chinese shares closed at one-month lows. China cut the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves for the fifth time since last February. The yuan hit a three week low. China expects to lay off 1.8 million coal and steel workers.    A weekend meeting of G20 finance chiefs ended without a plan to spur global growth. The G20 issued a statement which basically said the global economy is not as bad as the doomsayers think. G20 finance ministers agreed to use “all policy tools – monetary, fiscal and structural – individually and collectively” to reach the group’s economic goals; but there was no plan for coordinated stimulus. Participants also repeated previous pledges not to engage in competitive currency devaluations and promised to “consult closely” on exchange markets. Those pledges might not last long, and the Euro Union might …

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Financial Review

Breaking Up Is Hard To Do

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-2-02-16-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 20:26 — 9.4MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-16-2016 DOW + 222 = 16,196 SPX + 30 = 1895 NAS + 98 = 4435 10 Y + .03 = 1.78% OIL – .36 = 29.08 GOLD – 8.50 = 1201.30 Top oil officials from Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Venzuela met in Doha and have agreed to freeze crude output at January levels, targeting a supply glut that’s sent prices to 13-year-lows.

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Financial Review

Who Blinks First?

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-04-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-04-2016   DOW + 79 = 16,416 SPX + 2 = 1915 NAS + 5 = 4509 10 Y – .02 = 1.86% OIL – .52 = 31.76 GOLD + 13.00 = 1156.40   Equity markets were all over the place once again today as crude oil popped and then dropped.   Initial jobless claims rose in the last week of January but remained at a very low level. New claims rose by 8,000 a seasonally adjusted 285,000 in the seven days stretching from Jan. 24 to Jan 30. Any number below 300,000 is historically considered a sign of a robust labor market, but claims are no longer falling rapidly. In the last two weeks of January, for example, the number of new claims was slightly higher compared with the same two weeks in 2014. It’s the first time in three years that has happened for two weeks in a row.   The productivity of U.S. businesses fell at a 3% annual pace in the fourth quarter, marking the biggest decline in almost two years. Weak productivity growth has been a hallmark of the near-seven-year economic recovery. Productivity increased just 0.6% in 2015, less than one-third the average since the end of World War II. In the fourth quarter, employees put in more time on the job but output of goods and services barely rose. Output edged up a …

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Financial Review

Or Just Google It

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-01-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-01-2016 DOW – 17 = 16,449 SPX – 0.86 = 1939 NAS + 6 = 4620 10 Y + .04 = 1.97% OIL – 2.23 = 31.39 GOLD + 10.20 = 1129.00   Following the S&P’s worst January since 2009 ( down -5.1%), and a volatile month for oil prices, about a fifth of S&P 500 companies will report earnings this week, while lots of economic data (manufacturing figures, auto sales and Friday’s jobs report) could also help determine the future direction of stocks. The consensus estimate calls for about 185,000 net new jobs in January, down from 292,000 in December. And just a reminder that last Friday brought the first look at fourth quarter GDP, which grew at an anemic 0.7% annual rate in the fourth quarter. That’s a bad quarter to be sure, and real GDP is up only 1.8% from a year ago. That’s a weak year judged by the US postwar average of 3.1%, but is not far from the 2.1% annual growth we’ve been averaging since 2009. The Atlanta Fed model’s initial estimate for first-quarter growth has been published; the “Nowcast” of first-quarter growth calls for 1.2% annualized growth. Weak, but not recessionary.   Also on Friday, the Bank of Japan moved to negative interest rates; this Wednesday BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is scheduled to speak. Today, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi addressed the …

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Financial Review

Two Paths Diverge

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-02-2015 DOW – 158 = 17,729 SPX – 23 = 2079 NAS – 33 = 5123 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.18 OIL – 1.67 = 40.1 GOLD – 15.60 = 1054.20   American businesses stepped up hiring last month, led by strong gains in retail, finance and other service industries. Payroll processor ADP says that private companies added 217,000 jobs last month, the most in five months. Service sector firms added 204,000, while manufacturers hired just 6,000. The figures come just two days before the government issues its official jobs report for November. If the Friday jobs report is anywhere close to today’s ADP report, it might lock in a rate hike at the Fed FOMC meeting in two weeks.   The productivity of American businesses was higher in the third quarter than initially reported — but so were labor costs. Newly revised government figures show that productivity rose at a 2.2% annual rate instead of 1.6%. Unit-labor costs were revised higher to show a 1.8% annual increase in the third quarter, and second quarter costs were revised higher. As a result, the year-over-year increase in labor costs climbed to a 3% rate, the highest level in six quarters. Unit-labor costs reflect how much it costs a business to produce one unit of output, such as a refrigerator or a ton of steel.   The Fed published their …

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Financial Review

Sliding Into the Close

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-03-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 12.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-03-20015   DOW + 23 = 16,374 SPX + 2 = 1951 NAS – 16 = 4733 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.17% OIL – .12 = 46.63 GOLD – 8.70 = 1126.00 SILV + .03 = 14.83   Wall Street started the session on a high note, but could not hold it. Stocks slipped into the close and the Nasdaq turned red for the day. The stakes couldn’t be higher for the tomorrow morning’s August employment report, even though the month has typically been cursed by disappointment. The consensus guesstimate calls for about 215,000 to 220,000 new jobs created in August, with the unemployment rate holding at 5.3%, but August is notorious for misses. From 2005 to 2014, forecasters have over-estimated the initial August payrolls print seven times, including in each of the past four years. What’s more, the Labor Department (excluding annual and benchmark revisions) has marked up its first estimate in subsequent months in eight of the past 10 years. Part of the puzzle of forecasting August payrolls is the difficulty in adjusting for annual changes in the school-year calendar. Financial-market turmoil, at least, probably did little to impact hiring decisions in August. The government surveys households and businesses in the week that contains the 12th of the month, so the data will reflect responses covering the Aug. 9-15 period; that was a few days before the market rollercoaster …

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Financial Review

Proactive in the Face of Volatility

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-22-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 53 = 18,232 SPX – 4 = 2126 NAS – 1 = 5089 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.21% OIL – .78 = 59.94 GOLD SILV   Central bankers are speaking out. Earlier today, Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank reiterated his call for euro zone countries to reform their economies, warning that future growth would remain modest. Draghi said: “It should…be clear that the argument that accommodative monetary policy constitutes an excuse for governments and parliaments to postpone their reform efforts is incorrect. Recently, economic conditions have improved somewhat in Europe…but growth is too low everywhere.”   This afternoon Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen delivered a speech in Rhode Island. Yellen said: “the U.S. economy seems well positioned for continued growth.” And she said: “If the economy continues to improve as I expect, I think it will be appropriate at some point this year to take the initial step to raise the federal funds rate target and begin the process of normalizing monetary policy.”   The Fed has consistently stated that they would be data dependent, but today Yellen said “Delaying action to tighten monetary policy until employment and inflation are already back to our objectives would risk overheating the economy.” So, apparently data dependent is subject to interpretation.   Yellen expressed confidence that the economy will get better and the first quarter weakness …

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