Financial Review

Dollarish

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-25-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…More records for Do, S&P. New home sales slip. LEI jumps higher. ECB holds pat, Draghi hits US over dollar talk. Trump in Davos – say what? Deaton says US has a poverty problem. Earnings parade: Starbucks, Intel, Cat, 3M. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-25-2018

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Financial Review

A Quiet Friday in August

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-25-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Here comes Horrible Harvey. Yellen’s last hurrah in Jackson Hole. Cohn hangs in. Mnuchin expects tax reform by end of year. Investors pull money out of US stocks. Samsung’s Lee sentenced. YouTube TV covers half the country. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-25-2017.

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Financial Review

Your Money and Your Life

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-26-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  ……..Oil prices on the table in Algiers. BOJ looks at less than zero. The biggest risk – China. New home sales drop. Deutsche Bank stumbles badly. Wells Fargo Round Two. Mylan skips over inversion. Takata looks to BK. Traffic HERE. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-26-2016

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Financial Review

ECB Day

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-21-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSECB holds on to ultra-loose policy, earnings season, strange moves in commodities, VW will pay for un-clean diesel, nobody invests anymore. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-21-2016

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Financial Review

Waiting for the Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-03-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 03-03-2016 DOW + 44 = 16,943 SPX + 6 = 1993 NAS + 4 = 4707 10 Y – .02 = 1.83% OIL + .05 = 34.71 GOLD + 24.40 = 1264.90   We have a batch of economic reports, so we’ll run through the data and then break down the implications. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index dropped 0.1 point to 53.4%.Any reading over 50 signals expansion. ISM’s production gauge rose 3.9 points to 57.8%.Growth in the services sector has been expanding at a slower pace for the past four months, and that is now showing up as contraction in service sector employment. Details from the services survey showed the employment index declined to 49.7 from 52.1 in January, indicating companies last month started cutting staff.   The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits rose by 6,000 to 278,000 in the last week of February, but the overall pace of layoffs still hovered near postrecession lows. The average of new claims over the past four weeks, meanwhile, fell by 1,750 to 270,250 and hit a three-month low. In a separate report, global out placement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas said U.S.-based companies announced 61,599 job cuts last month, down from 75,114 in January. Layoffs remained concentrated in the energy sector. Tomorrow the Labor Department will publish the monthly non-farm payroll report; look for …

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Financial Review

The Vultures Eat

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-29-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-29-2016   DOW – 123 = 16,516 SPX – 15 = 1932 NAS – 32 = 4557 10 Y – .02 = 1.74% OIL + 1.12 = 33.90 GOLD + 16.50 = 1239.30   If you missed the past month, you might think things were calm on Wall Street for the month of February. For the month, the Dow rose 0.3 percent, the S&P 500 lost 0.4 percent and the Nasdaq lost 1.2 percent. This marks the first time since 2011 that major indexes posted three consecutive monthly declines.   Chinese shares closed at one-month lows. China cut the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves for the fifth time since last February. The yuan hit a three week low. China expects to lay off 1.8 million coal and steel workers.    A weekend meeting of G20 finance chiefs ended without a plan to spur global growth. The G20 issued a statement which basically said the global economy is not as bad as the doomsayers think. G20 finance ministers agreed to use “all policy tools – monetary, fiscal and structural – individually and collectively” to reach the group’s economic goals; but there was no plan for coordinated stimulus. Participants also repeated previous pledges not to engage in competitive currency devaluations and promised to “consult closely” on exchange markets. Those pledges might not last long, and the Euro Union …

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Financial Review

Breaking Up Is Hard To Do

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-2-02-16-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 20:26 — 9.4MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-16-2016 DOW + 222 = 16,196 SPX + 30 = 1895 NAS + 98 = 4435 10 Y + .03 = 1.78% OIL – .36 = 29.08 GOLD – 8.50 = 1201.30 Top oil officials from Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Venzuela met in Doha and have agreed to freeze crude output at January levels, targeting a supply glut that’s sent prices to 13-year-lows.

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Financial Review

Who Blinks First?

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-04-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-04-2016   DOW + 79 = 16,416 SPX + 2 = 1915 NAS + 5 = 4509 10 Y – .02 = 1.86% OIL – .52 = 31.76 GOLD + 13.00 = 1156.40   Equity markets were all over the place once again today as crude oil popped and then dropped.   Initial jobless claims rose in the last week of January but remained at a very low level. New claims rose by 8,000 a seasonally adjusted 285,000 in the seven days stretching from Jan. 24 to Jan 30. Any number below 300,000 is historically considered a sign of a robust labor market, but claims are no longer falling rapidly. In the last two weeks of January, for example, the number of new claims was slightly higher compared with the same two weeks in 2014. It’s the first time in three years that has happened for two weeks in a row.   The productivity of U.S. businesses fell at a 3% annual pace in the fourth quarter, marking the biggest decline in almost two years. Weak productivity growth has been a hallmark of the near-seven-year economic recovery. Productivity increased just 0.6% in 2015, less than one-third the average since the end of World War II. In the fourth quarter, employees put in more time on the job but output of goods and services barely rose. Output edged up …

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Financial Review

Or Just Google It

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-01-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-01-2016 DOW – 17 = 16,449 SPX – 0.86 = 1939 NAS + 6 = 4620 10 Y + .04 = 1.97% OIL – 2.23 = 31.39 GOLD + 10.20 = 1129.00   Following the S&P’s worst January since 2009 ( down -5.1%), and a volatile month for oil prices, about a fifth of S&P 500 companies will report earnings this week, while lots of economic data (manufacturing figures, auto sales and Friday’s jobs report) could also help determine the future direction of stocks. The consensus estimate calls for about 185,000 net new jobs in January, down from 292,000 in December. And just a reminder that last Friday brought the first look at fourth quarter GDP, which grew at an anemic 0.7% annual rate in the fourth quarter. That’s a bad quarter to be sure, and real GDP is up only 1.8% from a year ago. That’s a weak year judged by the US postwar average of 3.1%, but is not far from the 2.1% annual growth we’ve been averaging since 2009. The Atlanta Fed model’s initial estimate for first-quarter growth has been published; the “Nowcast” of first-quarter growth calls for 1.2% annualized growth. Weak, but not recessionary.   Also on Friday, the Bank of Japan moved to negative interest rates; this Wednesday BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is scheduled to speak. Today, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi addressed …

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Financial Review

Two Paths Diverge

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-02-2015 DOW – 158 = 17,729 SPX – 23 = 2079 NAS – 33 = 5123 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.18 OIL – 1.67 = 40.1 GOLD – 15.60 = 1054.20   American businesses stepped up hiring last month, led by strong gains in retail, finance and other service industries. Payroll processor ADP says that private companies added 217,000 jobs last month, the most in five months. Service sector firms added 204,000, while manufacturers hired just 6,000. The figures come just two days before the government issues its official jobs report for November. If the Friday jobs report is anywhere close to today’s ADP report, it might lock in a rate hike at the Fed FOMC meeting in two weeks.   The productivity of American businesses was higher in the third quarter than initially reported — but so were labor costs. Newly revised government figures show that productivity rose at a 2.2% annual rate instead of 1.6%. Unit-labor costs were revised higher to show a 1.8% annual increase in the third quarter, and second quarter costs were revised higher. As a result, the year-over-year increase in labor costs climbed to a 3% rate, the highest level in six quarters. Unit-labor costs reflect how much it costs a business to produce one unit of output, such as a refrigerator or a ton of steel.   The Fed published …

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Financial Review

Sliding Into the Close

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-03-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 12.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-03-20015   DOW + 23 = 16,374 SPX + 2 = 1951 NAS – 16 = 4733 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.17% OIL – .12 = 46.63 GOLD – 8.70 = 1126.00 SILV + .03 = 14.83   Wall Street started the session on a high note, but could not hold it. Stocks slipped into the close and the Nasdaq turned red for the day. The stakes couldn’t be higher for the tomorrow morning’s August employment report, even though the month has typically been cursed by disappointment. The consensus guesstimate calls for about 215,000 to 220,000 new jobs created in August, with the unemployment rate holding at 5.3%, but August is notorious for misses. From 2005 to 2014, forecasters have over-estimated the initial August payrolls print seven times, including in each of the past four years. What’s more, the Labor Department (excluding annual and benchmark revisions) has marked up its first estimate in subsequent months in eight of the past 10 years. Part of the puzzle of forecasting August payrolls is the difficulty in adjusting for annual changes in the school-year calendar. Financial-market turmoil, at least, probably did little to impact hiring decisions in August. The government surveys households and businesses in the week that contains the 12th of the month, so the data will reflect responses covering the Aug. 9-15 period; that was a few days before the market …

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Financial Review

Proactive in the Face of Volatility

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-22-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 53 = 18,232 SPX – 4 = 2126 NAS – 1 = 5089 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.21% OIL – .78 = 59.94 GOLD SILV   Central bankers are speaking out. Earlier today, Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank reiterated his call for euro zone countries to reform their economies, warning that future growth would remain modest. Draghi said: “It should…be clear that the argument that accommodative monetary policy constitutes an excuse for governments and parliaments to postpone their reform efforts is incorrect. Recently, economic conditions have improved somewhat in Europe…but growth is too low everywhere.”   This afternoon Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen delivered a speech in Rhode Island. Yellen said: “the U.S. economy seems well positioned for continued growth.” And she said: “If the economy continues to improve as I expect, I think it will be appropriate at some point this year to take the initial step to raise the federal funds rate target and begin the process of normalizing monetary policy.”   The Fed has consistently stated that they would be data dependent, but today Yellen said “Delaying action to tighten monetary policy until employment and inflation are already back to our objectives would risk overheating the economy.” So, apparently data dependent is subject to interpretation.   Yellen expressed confidence that the economy will get better and the first quarter …

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Financial Review

A Low Bar

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-20-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 208 = 18,034 SPX + 19 = 2100 NAS + 62 = 4994 10 YR YLD + .05 = 1.90% OIL + .76 = 56.50 No major economic data published today. The global markets have been focused on China and Greece. China is changing regulations and adding stimulus to try and prop up the economy, even as some of their big real estate development companies are staring down defaults. The problem with Greece is that they are ready to default; payments are due at the end of the week and they are scrambling for cash. Perhaps more importantly, earnings season will kick into high gear this week. Maybe all that will take a backseat to a facedown off the shore of Yemen. The US Navy has sent an aircraft carrier and a guided-missile cruiser into the waters near Yemen to conduct maritime security operations, and not to intercept Iranian arms shipments. It’s believed there are 9 US ships in the region, including cruisers and destroyers. It is further believed the Iranian Navy has sent up to 5 ships full of weapons bound for Houthi rebels in Yemen. Yea, what could go wrong?   Following soft GDP data last week, China’s central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio for all banks by 100 basis points to 18.5% yesterday, adding about $200 billion in liquidity for banks to lend. Last …

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Financial Review

Transitory, Not Terminal

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-23-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 11 = 18,116 SPX – 3 = 2104 NAS – 15 = 5010 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.91% OIL + .88 = 47.45 GOLD + 6.90 = 1190.30 SILV + .25 = 17.08   The Dow Jones Industrial Average is still above 18,000. The Nasdaq Composite is above 5,000. The Russell 2000 is near record highs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Composite, which dipped below 17,000 early in the year, took about a month to surge from 18,000 to 19,000 and is now rapidly approaching the 20,000 level; heights that haven’t been seen since 2000. Germany’s DAX recently traded above 12,000 for the first time and is up nearly 30 percent from the lows set earlier this year. London’s FTSE 100 is over 7,000, at its highest level in 15 years. Central bank monetary easing seems to be having the desired effect of pumping up financial assets around the globe, and even if the Fed is talking about hiking rates in the US, we haven’t seen a serious rate hike tantrum on Wall Street, yet.   U.S. home resales rebounded less than expected in February. The National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales rose 1.2% to an annual rate of 4.88 million units. Inventories are tight and also sales were hurt by harsh winter weather in the Northeast, where sales dropped 6.5%; sales were up …

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Financial Review

Sparks Turn into Flames

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-05-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 38 = 18,135 SPX + 2 = 2101 NAS + 15 = 4982 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.11% OIL – .59 = 50.94 GOLD SILV   Productivity in the fourth quarter fell at a revised 2.2% annual pace. The Labor Department originally estimated that productivity fell 1.8% in the final three months of 2014.   The number of people who applied for new unemployment benefits climbed by 7,000 to 320,000 for the week ended February 28. New applications for unemployment benefits are 1.5% below year-ago levels.   Of course the big economic news is tomorrow morning when we get the monthly jobs report. A month ago, the report showed the economy added 257,000 net new jobs in January. The estimate for February is 235,000 new jobs. It would be a bit of a surprise if the number is stronger than expected. Earlier in the week the ISM report showed employment was still expanding, but at a slower pace; they cited the West Coast port slowdown. Meanwhile, the rest of the country has experienced bad weather in February. Overall, the labor market looks to be improving, slowly.   Last month, Walmart made headlines by announcing it would be hiking wages for a significant chunk of its hourly workforce, boosting its minimum hourly rate to $10 by next year. What was behind the move? Yesterday’s Beige Book may provide a clue. The report says …

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Financial Review

Friday Wrap

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-2-01-23-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 20:25 — 9.3MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 141 = 17,672 SPX – 11 = 2051 NAS + 7 = 4757 10 YR YLD – .08 = 1.82% OIL – .95 = 45.36 GOLD – 8.00 = 1295.10 SILV – .02 = 18.40 For the week, the Dow rose 0.9 percent, the S&P gained 1.6 percent and the Nasdaq added 2.7 percent. The ECB announced plans yesterday to expand asset purchases by €60B per month until at least September 2016. ECB President Mario Draghi says the new stimulus plan “should strengthen demand, increase capacity utilization and support money and credit growth.” Well, it will make somebody rich, but the benefits to the broader Euro economy are still very much up in the air. Bonds in the region rallied, with the yields on 10-year notes of Germany, Italy, Spain and France falling to all-time lows. Stocks in the region on track for their best week since 2011 but the euro currency has dropped below $1.12. Greece’s leftist Syriza party leads the opinion polls heading into an election on Sunday. The ECB’s debt-purchasing program will not include Greece, at least not until July, and only then if a continuing review of the country’s bailout program is successfully completed. The basic bond buying plan wasn’t kind to Greece, even with the exclusion built in. The way, the ECB put together their QE scheme, rather than purchase government bonds …

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Financial Review

So Disappointing

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-20-2015_2_.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 3= 17,515 SPX + 3 = 2022 NAS + 20 = 4654 10 YR YLD un = 1.81% OIL – 2.30 = 46.39 GOLD + 13.90 = 1295.20 SILV + .19 = 18.08 Wall Street loves free money; they love free money from the Federal Reserve and for the past 5 years Wall Street has rallied on bailouts, QE, and ZIRP. The bailouts are over and the government promises they will never give away your money to the big banks again; QE, or quantitative easing is also finished and the Fed says they are out of the bond buying business for now; and ZIRP, or Zero Interest Rate Policy will patiently be replaced by slightly higher interest rates. Remember, Wall Street loves free money, so you might expect Wall Street might throw a tantrum at the prospect of no more QE and higher interest rates; we’ve seen taper tantrums in the not-so-distant past; and that might be what we’ve been experiencing to start the New Year. But the Federal Reserve is not the only central bank with a stimulus scheme. The Bank of Japan has its own QE program called Abenomics. And the European Central Bank is finally expected to launch its own QE program on Thursday. ECB President Mario Draghi has been saying he would do “whatever it takes” for the past 2 years. Now, the …

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Financial Review

Columbo Fed

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-07-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 212 = 17,584 SPX + 23 = 2025 NAS + 57 = 4650 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.95% OIL + .59 = 48.52 GOLD – 8.20 = 1212.10 SILV – .02 = 16.63 After the holidays we are finally starting to get back to economic data. Let’s start with the ADP payroll report, which shows 241,000 net new private sector jobs for December. Breaking down that number, private-sector service providers added 194,000 jobs, while goods producers added 46,000 jobs. By company size, small businesses added 106,000 private-sector jobs, large businesses added 54,000 and medium businesses added 70,000. The Labor Department reports on jobs Friday morning and we tend to look to the ADP report as a precursor to the government’s monthly report, but it isn’t a real accurate predictor. Last month the government reported 321,000 new jobs and ADP initially showed 208,000 for November. Still, we are probably looking for around 220,000 to 240,000 new jobs on Friday and today’s report was in line with that estimate. Meanwhile, Gallup has its own Job Creation Index which ended 2014 at plus 27 in December, eight points higher than where it started in January. The index has remained between plus 27 and plus 28 since May; essentially it has remained at the same level for the past eight months, suggesting the job market plateaued in the latter …

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Financial Review

Game On

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-04-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 12 = 17,900 SPX – 2 = 2071 NAS – 5 = 4769 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.26% OIL – .61 = 66.77 GOLD – 3.10 = 1207.50 SILV + .06 = 16.59 Seven of the 10 main industries in the S&P 500 declined. Energy companies slumped 0.8%, following three days of gains. Chevron slid 1.3%, the most in the Dow, and Exxon Mobil declined 0.6%. Crude fell 18% last month and moves of that magnitude cannot be attributed to normal markets following supply and demand. There is manipulation in the oil market, and the question is really whether it will end well. Initial jobless claims fell 17,000 in the week ended Nov. 29 to 294,000. In the prior week, new filings hit 314,000, the first reading above 300,000 since early September. Tomorrow is the monthly jobs report and the guestimates are calling for 230,000 new jobs added and the unemployment rate steady at 5.8%. The November jobs reports are subject to some revisions, so don’t be surprised if that guesstimate is wildly off base. When the jobs report surprises to the upside, the S&P trades up two-thirds of the time, with growth sectors like Industrials outperforming. When jobs miss, gold does well. We’ll dig into the report tomorrow, but some of the important bits of data we will track includes where wages are going. …

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Financial Review

Test Results Are In

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-24-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 7 = 17,817 SPX + 5 = 2069 NAS + 41 = 4754 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.31% OIL – .81 = 75.70 GOLD – 3.80 = 1199.30 SILV + .02 = 16.57 The S&P 500 has gained 11% since bottoming out in a slump that stretched from mid-September to mid-October. The rally has been driven by a belief that central bank actions in Europe, China and Japan will help invigorate global economic growth. On Friday, China’s central bank lowered a key interest rate and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he was willing to step up the bank’s efforts to stimulate the Eurozone, which has been struggling. Speaking of European investors that sell assets to the ECB moving into other, more risky, assets that would help accelerate the euro area’s growth, Draghi said that higher prices for European assets might encourage some foreign holders to switch away from the euro, with “investors rebalancing portfolios away from euro-denominated assets towards other jurisdictions and currencies providing higher yields.” Just to make sure that listeners got the message, he added there was evidence that the asset-purchase programs of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan “led to a significant depreciation of their respective exchange rates, even in a situation in which long-term yields were already very low, as in Japan.” You have been warned; …

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