Financial Review

St. Patrick’s Day Minus the Green

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-17-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Quad witch calm. G20 blah. Merkel-Trump blah. Tillerson’s diplomatic bomb. Apple in China. Google haters. Mule IPO. Manufacturing output rose. Consumer sentiment rose, but politically divided. LEI up. Tesla has an ATM. JCPenneystill selling Christmas sweaters. Wells Fargo and the spineless board. March Madness bets. Cheers. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 03-17-2017

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Financial Review

Unsustainable

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-07-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 93 = 17,776 SPX + 12 = 2081 NAS + 5 = 4997 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.23% OIL + .14 = 52.67 GOLD – 15.50 = 1155.30 SILV – .70 = 15.15   These are interesting times. There is the situation in Greece; the Chinese equity markets are suffering a bit of a meltdown; Puerto Rico has fallen into a black hole of debt; negotiations are underway with Iran; and the cherry on top – earnings season starts tomorrow. Traders might be forgiven if they were a feeling a little jittery. This morning the stock market headed into triple digit negative territory, (the Dow was down 200 points earlier) only to get an afternoon jolt of good news; namely, there may be a deal to be had with Greece. So, let’s dig in there.   Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is in Brussels for an emergency Eurozone summit. Over the weekend, Greeks overwhelmingly voted to reject more austerity. Actually, they voted on a debt proposal that is no longer under consideration, but figuratively they voted against austerity. Greek banks remain closed and ATMs are reportedly running out of cash. The European Central Bank has maintained its emergency loan cap for Greek banks. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said there was no basis for reopening negotiations with Athens. European leaders have all made clear the onus …

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Monday, May 14, 2012 – Problems in Greece, Euro, California, and JPMorgan – No Surprise

DOW – 125 = 12,695SPX – 15 = 1338NAS – 31 = 290210 YR YLD -.05 = 1.79%OIL – .70 = 94.08GOLD – 23.80 = 1557.50SILV – .71 = 28.28PLAT – 29.00 = 1442.00 Back in early April I started telling you to heed the old market maxim: “Sell in May and Stay Away”. You are welcome. The Dow Industrial Average has now dropped 8 out of the last 9 sessions; no surprise. Of course, we had the weekend to think about the shenanigans of JPMorgan Chase; a too big to fail bank acting irresponsibly while simultaneously demanding less regulation; no surprise. Today’s declines started in Europe; no surprise. In Germany, Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union Party suffered more losses in a local election for the second straight week. Merkel’s CDU party received just 26% of the vote while a coalition of left-leaning Social Democrats and Green party candidates received over 50%. In light of the recent French elections, we are starting to see a trend. In Greece, the various leaders of the various political parties failed to form a coalition government over the weekend; no surprise. The Greeks will likely need to call another election. And the fate of Greece hangs over the markets just as the possibility of exiting the Euro-Union hangs over the heads of the Greeks. And I think that is the correct application of the metaphor, with Angela Merkel in the role of Dionysius and the Greeks in the role of Damocles. I don’t know …

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Thursday, May 3, 2012 – Jobs More or Less, Europe More or Less, HSBC Mess

DOW – 16 = 13, 206SPX – 10 = 1391NAS – 35 = 302410 YR YLD unchanged = 1.92%OIL +.09 = 102.63GOLD – 17.90 = 1636.80SILV – .58 = 30.17PLAT – 28.00 = 1540.00 Tomorrow the government releases the employment report for April. Economists predict the U.S. gained 160k to 175k jobs last month, up from a disappointing 120,000 in March. The preliminary increase in March was the lowest in five months and fell well short of the 246,000 average from December to February. We’ve seen several reports on jobs that might give a hint on tomorrow’s report: The four-week average of initial jobless claims was 383,500.Jobless claims declined by 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 365,000 in the week ended April 28. The Labor Department said continuing claims decreased by 53,000 to a seasonally adjusted 3.28 million in the week ended April 21. Continuing claims reflect people already receiving benefits. ADP’s report on private-sector payrolls slowed to 119,000 from 201,000 in March. The employment component of the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing report rose to 57.3% from 56.1%, on a scale where readings over 50% indicate expansion. The employment component of the Institute for Supply Management’s services report slowed to 54.2% from 56.7%, on a scale where readings over 50% indicate expansion. Planned layoff announcements rose 7% to 40,559, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. What does it mean? It means wait until tomorrow’s report and we’ll find out. This is not the kind of report that you bet on. …

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Wednesday, May 02, 2012 – Jobs Report, Euro Elections, California Budget, and Watching Paint Dry

DOW – 10 = 13,268SPX – 3 = 1402 NAS + 9 = 305910 YR YLD -.03 = 1.92OIL +.14 = 105.36GOLD – 8.50 = 1654.70SILV – .32 = 30.75PLAT – 9.00 = 1569.00 This is shaping up to be a wild weekend. Friday we get the jobs report. Then, in Europe there will be elections in France and Greece. On a personal note, I’m going to paint the patio on my house, so I’ll be watching paint dry, just to counterbalance the rest of the world. The monthly jobs report, already the most highly anticipated data of the month, will be getting a little extra attention this Friday after a disappointing report on GDP late last week. A bad jobs report and a weak GDP report might be enough to trigger another round of Quantitative Easing from the Federal Reserve. The economy is adding and will continue to add jobs; that is not in question. It is the rate of job growth. Expectations are that there were about 160k to 175k new jobs created in April, up from 120,000 in March, and an unemployment rate that remains steady at 8.2%. The lowball guesses are for only about 125k jobs. With the addition of 120,000 jobs, March marked the 15th straight month of jobs growth, but it broke a three-month streak in which the economy had added more than 200,000 jobs. Now we are only a couple days away from finding out whether March’s report was a fluke or the …

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Tuesday, April 24, 2012 – As the Euro Turns, Counting Protesters at Shareholder Meetings

DOW + 74 = 13,001 SPX + 5 = 1371NAS – 8 = 296110 YR YLD +.03 = 1.96%OIL +.20 = 103.75GOLD + 3.20 = 1642.50SILV -.03 = 30.93PLAT – 14.00 = 1550.00 Yesterday’s edition of “As the Euro Turns” included the collapse of the government in the Netherlands when it could not agree with a key allied party on budget cuts to bring the deficit below the EU-mandated 3 percent. In France, Socialist Francois Hollande led the first round of presidential elections; he has vowed to renegotiate a European treaty tightening rules on debt. All that was absorbed today. After all, the Dutch still have a Triple-A credit rating; they will probably pay their bonds. It does appear, at least for today, that the Euro has turned; as if a sudden transformation has swept the continent. Austerity is dead. Keynes has been resurrected and placed on a pedestal in Brussels, right next to a chocolate covered waffle. There was a mass awakening that countries cannot cut their way to prosperity. Angela Merkel is fighting back against the austerity backlash; she argues the “credibility” of the Eurozone is at risk without more austerity and continuing cutbacks. But austerity isn’t working and its hard to maintain credibility in the face of failed policy. Here is the problem: If a government (say Greece) has a massive deficit and now they are trying to balance their budget, the government will be making the situation worse by imposing cuts, both because government expenditure is …

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