Financial Review

Waiting

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-23-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 11:31 — 6.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Vote on Obamacare repeal bill postponed. Waiting. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 03-23-2017

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Friday, march 28, 2014 – Ukraine, Climate Change, and More

Ukraine, Oil, Climate Change, and More by Sinclair Noe DOW + 58 = 16323 SPX + 8 = 1857 NAS + 4 = 4155 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.71% OIL  + .30 = 101.58 GOLD + 3.20 = 1295.90 SILV + .13 = 19.92 Consumer spending increased 0.3% in February, but the January reading on spending was revised lower to 0.2%. Disposable income, or the money left over after taxes, rose 0.3% after adjusting for inflation, the most since September. It climbed 2.1% from February 2013. Wages and salaries increased 0.2% after a 0.3% gain. This tells us a few things; consumers are spending what they earn, basically hand to mouth; also incomes and spending are not enough to lift the economy and we will be seeing first quarter GDP estimates revised lower. Today’s spending report showed purchases of durable goods, including automobiles, increased 0.1% after adjusting for inflation following a 0.4% drop in January. Purchases of non-durable goods, which include gasoline, gained 0.3%. Household outlays on services climbed 0.2% after adjusting for inflation. Today’s data also showed the core price measure, which excludes fuel and food, rose 1.1% from a year ago, the same as in January. Total prices, which are the ones tracked by Federal Reserve policy makers, were up 0.9% from February 2013, the smallest year-to-year gain since October. That remains well below the central bank’s 2% target. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index final reading for March came in at a four-month …

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Tuesday, November 19, 2013 – Too Good To Be True

Too Good To Be True by Sinclair Noe DOW – 8 = 15,967SPX – 3 = 1787NAS – 17 = 393110 YR YLD + .04 = 2.70%OIL + .31 = 93.34GOLD – .80 = 1276.20SILV – .06 = 20.44 No record high today; not a surprise; it can’t happen every day. So, we’ll see if this is a pause or whether we have to wait six years till we have milk and cookies again. Likely the former, but you never know. JPMorgan Chase and the Justice Department have reportedly finalized a $13 billion settlement and resolves an array of state and federal investigations into JPMorgan’s sale of troubled mortgage securities to pension funds and other investors from 2005 through 2008. The government accused the bank of not fully disclosing the risks of buying such securities which, as we know, failed. JPMorgan had to acknowledge a statement of facts that outline the bank’s wrongdoing in the case. JPMorgan also backed down from demands that prosecutors drop a related criminal investigation into the bank and largely forfeited the right to try to later recoup some of the $13 billion from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The $13 billion deal also comes just days after the bank struck a separate $4.5 billion deal with a group of investors over the sale of toxic mortgage-backed securities. The breakdown of the money includes a $2 billion fine to prosecutors in Sacramento and $4 billion in relief to struggling homeowners in hard hit areas like Detroit …

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Tuesday, June 25, 2013 – On Energy

On Energy by Sinclair Noe DOW + 100 = 14.760SPX + 14 = 1588NAS + 27 = 334710 YR YLD + .04 = 2.59%OIL + .07 = 95.25GOLD – 5.00 = 1278.60SILV – .05 = 19.74 A few economic reports to start. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for April showed average home prices increased 12.1% compared to April one year ago. All 20 cities in the index showed positive year over year returns and this marked the highest monthly gains in the history of the Indices. San Francisco showed the largest year-over-year growth at 23.9%, followed by Las Vegas at 22.3%, Phoenix at 21.5%, and Atlanta at 20.8%. New York saw the lowest levels of growth at 3.2%. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department reports sales of new homes rose in May to the highest rate since mid-2008. Sales increased 2.1% last month to an annual rate of 476,000. The median price of new homes, meanwhile, dropped 3.2% to $263,900 last month from a record high of $272,600 in April.  Business orders for durable goods, the big ticket items, rose 3.6% to a seasonally adjusted $231 billion. Business investment excluding defense and aircraft was up 1.1%, marking a third straight gain. A big factor was a 51% increase in orders for new passenger planes. In the first five months of 2013, business orders have risen 2.1% in compared to the same period last year. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index jumped to 81.4 in June, the best reading since January 2008 and …

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Friday, August 17, 2012 – We All Want Justice but You’ve Got to Have Money to Buy It

We All Want Justice but You’ve Got to Have Money to Buy It-by Sinclair Noe  DOW + 25 = 13,275SPX + 2 = 1418NAS + 14 = 307610 YR YLD -.02 = 1.82%OIL + .61 = 96.21GOLD + 1.10 = 1616.80SILV – .13 = 28.19 PLAT + 34.00 = 1479.00 We had a bunch of economic reports this week. Here’s a quick review:The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, measures inflation at the retail level; in July the overall consumer prices were unchanged, while the core gauge rose 0.2%. The CPI rose 1.4% over the year through July, the smallest 12-month change since late 2010.  The Producer Price Index, or PPI, measures inflation at the wholesale level; it rose 0.3% in July. Higher  food prices were only slightly offset by lower energy prices. In the 12 months ending in July, producer prices rose 0.5%, the smallest gain since October 2009.  However, food prices jumped, with corn prices leading the way, up 34.5% for the month. That will filter through the economy. Energy prices were down in July, but they’ve been moving higher. Inflation is not a problem right now, but wait.  Initial filings for unemployment benefits climb by 2,000 to 366,000 in the latest week, but the four-week moving average dropped to its lowest level since March. While the July unemployment figure rose a tenth of a point from June to 8.3 percent, the government says 44 states saw their jobless rates increase. Nevada has the highest unemployment rate at 12%. California …

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Wednesday, May 16, 2012 – Admit Nothing – by Sinclair Noe

DOW – 6.66 = 12,496 SPX + 2 = 1318NAS + 11 = 285010 YR YLD -.07 = 1.72OIL +.62 = 90.51GOLD – 6.00 = 1563.30SILV -.36 = 27.94PLAT – 20.00 = 1430.00 A listener writes: Maybe they should have renamed the company “Two Facedbook” at the IPO for all of the double dealing and back door insider information. One face for Joe public and the other face for Joe privileged… My .02 worth. We are learning details, and we will learn many more details as the Facebook Fiasco works its way through the courts. Zuckerberg made a boatload of money but he will spend a large part of his life dealing with lawyers and the legal system. At first blush it appears the bankers were behaving badly. Go figure. The latest revelation is that Facebook officials told the analysts for the banks that were underwriting the IPO to reduce revenue and earnings forecasts. Facebook backed off and said, “hey, get your models down.” Facebook’s advisory came around May 9, the day it published an amended prospectus that included a cautionary note about lower advertising revenue. It isn’t known which analysts from the 33 IPO underwriters were contacted by Facebook with the revised guidance. It also isn’t clear exactly who from Facebook gave the guidance. The analysts cut their estimates because a Facebook executive told them to. The information about the estimate cut was then verbally conveyed to sophisticated institutional investors who were considering buying Facebook stock, but not to smaller investors. The …

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March, Thursday 29, 2012

DOW + 19 = 13,145 SPX – 2 = 1403NAS – 9 = 309510 YR YLD -.04 = 2.16% OIL +.52 =103.30GOLD – .70 = 1662.40SILV + .22 = 32.36PLAT – 11.00 = 1631.00 Let’s talk about your retirement. The numbers that are selected with the highest frequency are: 48, 36, 53, 12, 27, 31, 51, and 52 – that’s for the first selection on the MegaMillions lottery ticket. The most common numbers for the Mega ball are 36, 9,7, 35, and 2. You’re scrambling for a pencil. You can always wait about an hour and we’ll post the audio archives of today’s show at MoneyRadio.com. Of course, even if you pick those numbers, your probability of winning the lottery are beyond astronomical, and the crazy part is that for many people, even with the ridiculous odds, this is their best chance at retirement, or getting out of debt. The estimate is that the jackpot for tomorrow’s drawing is up to about $550 million, so it’s interesting, it’s fun to fantasize. There is some entertainment value. I’m just suggesting that it might be a good idea to have a Plan B. You know, personal discipline, a savings plan, an investment plan, solid information – it’s not that difficult, just keep it tuned to MoneyRadio. It’s not as fast as the lottery, but the odds are much better. While winning the lottery would be sweet, there are some people who seem to have won the legal lottery. They collected get out …

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March, Friday 23, 2012

DOW + 34 = 13,080SPX + 4 = 1397 NAS + 4 = 3067 10 YR YLD -.04 = 2.24% OIL + 1.40 = 106.75 GOLD + 17.90 = 1663.80 SILV +.65 = 32.34PLAT + 4.00 = 1630.00 Bloomberg News is reporting that Jon Corzine, the former CEO of MF Global gave “direct instructions” to transfer $200 million from a customer fund account to meet an overdraft in one of the brokerage’s accounts with JPMorgan Chase in London. Back in December, Corzine testified that he never intended to misuse customer funds, he didn’t know where the money went, and (quote) “I did not instruct anyone to lend customer funds to anyone.”  Now, investigators have an email from the firm’s treasurer, three days before the company collapsed, and it says the transfer of funds was “Per JC’s direct instructions.” Somebody is going to have to re-hypothecate their testimony. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says the economy is operating below its level prior to the financial crisis. Bernanke said: “Consumer spending is not recovered, it’s still quite weak relative to where it was before the crisis. In terms of debt and consumption and so on we’re still way low relative to the patterns before.” I think what Bernanke is saying is: go shopping; go into debt if you don’t have money but just buy something. The US changed in the early 1980s from a model where rising worker wages were seen as the driver to growth and hence a focus of policy, …

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January, Wednesday 11, 2012

DOW –13 = 12449SPX +0.4 = 1292NAS + 8 = 271010 YR YLD -.07 = 1.90OIL -.51 = 101.73GOLD +10.80 = 1644.00SILV + .03 = 30.07PLAT + 30.00 = 1500.00 Fitch Ratings Agency reminds us all that Europe isn’t in good shape. Fitch says the ECB should take a more active role in buying Eurozone debt to avert a cataclysmic collapse. Fitch said they’re not really predicting a collapse of the Euro; just that it is a concern. Meanwhile, Fitch downgraded Hungary to junk status. The euro hit a 16 month low of $1.27. Germany reported its economy shrank in the fourth quarter. European regulators will recommend blocking the deal that would have seen Germany’s largest stock exchange buy the New York Stock Exchange. France says they have not been informed of an imminent decision to cut the country’s credit rating.  In Italy, the banks stopped lending and organized crime has stepped in to fill the void for short-term lending, meaning the Mafia has become the number one bank in Italy.  And the rest of the Eurozone seems determined to grind Greece into the ground. Grecian formula austerity has seen unemployment jump from 13% to 19%. Rates of homelessness, suicide, crime, and HIV have skyrocketed; and public hospitals are facing severe shortages – they’ve run out of bandages and similar necessities. And Germany’s Angela Merkel and the IMF’s Christine LaGrande warn that Greece won’t get any more bailout money if they don’t pull themselves up by the bootstraps. So, it’s …

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