Financial Review

February Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-09-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 12:59 — 7.4MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Economy adds 313,000 new jobs. Unemployment rate 4.1%. Wages barely budge. Wall Street loved the numbers. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 03-09-2018

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Financial Review

What Could Go Wrong?

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-02-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 hit record highs. At this point in the expansion… Cold weather, heating fuel record usage. North Korea, Iran, Pakistan. Minimum wage increases. Air travel is safest. California goes to pot. Amazon goes bananas. Shoppers’ debt. Unexpected threats… Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-02-2018

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Financial Review

The Wall

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-28-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Stocks hit the wall. Holiday spending figures. Pending home sales drop. Russian sanctions possible. Lloyd’s considers moving out of London. Barclays fights. Qualcomm fined. Kate Spade wants to sell Kate Spade. Fines for fake news. Can Amazon Echo testify against you? Minimum wage hikes coming soon. Americans spend more on health care than any other country. Expats increasing. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-28-2016

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Financial Review

Wait and See

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-08-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Election Day. Clinton has the path to victory, Florida likely to seal the deal. Plus, what to watch in Senate races. Plus other stuff on ballots. Social media made a difference. JOLTS show tightening labor market. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-08-2016

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Financial Review

July Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-05-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSThe economy added 255,000 new jobs last month. The unemployment rate steady at 4.9%. We’ll dig into the details. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-05-2016

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Financial Review

June Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-08-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS287,000 new jobs in June. Unemployment rate up to 4.9%. Smoothing out the numbers. Wages inch higher. The impact of minimum wage. The need for job training. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-08-2016

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Financial Review

Jobs Friday

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-06-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSEverything you need to know about the April 2016 Non-Farm Payroll Report. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-06-2016

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Financial Review

Not Fixed Yet

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-05-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-05-2016   DOW – 211 = 16204 SPX – 35 = 1880 NAS – 146 = 4363 10 Y – .02 = 1.85% OIL – .73 = 30.99 GOLD + 18.40 = 1174.50   The S&P 500 extended its loss for the week to 3%.  The index is now down more than 8 percent in 2016. The Nasdaq closed at its lowest since October 2014.   Today is a jobs report Friday. If you are a regular listener, you know that I go into quite a bit of detail. The reason is simple. The jobs report is the single most important economic data we can look at each month. So, here are the numbers:   The economy added 151,000 nonfarm jobs in January; that’s below the consensus estimate of 185,000. The unemployment rate dropped from 5% to 4.9%, the lowest reading since 2008; and an indicator the economy is still creating more than enough jobs to keep up with increases in the size of the labor force. The December jobs report was revised down from 292,000 jobs to 262,000. November’s gain was raised to 280,000 from 252,000. In the past three months job growth averaged 231,000 jobs per month. In the past 12 months the economy added 2.67 million jobs. Since the beginning of 2010, the American economy has gained nearly 14 million jobs. Total employment is now 4.9 …

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Financial Review

The Last Jobs Report of 2015

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-08-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-08-2015 DOW – 167 = 16,346 SPX – 21 = 1922 NAS – 45 = 4643 10 Y – .02 = 2.13% OIL – .34 = 32.93 GOLD – 4.60 = 1105.60   The economy added 292,000 new jobs in December, much higher than estimates of 205,000 to 215,000. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0%. The October and November reports were revised higher to show an additional 50,000 new jobs. In the final three months of 2015, the U.S. added an average of 284,000 jobs. That’s the fastest pace in almost a year. For the past year the economy added 2.7 million jobs. In 2014 the economy added 3.1 million jobs; that’s the best 2 years for job growth since the late 1990s. The economy has added jobs for 70 consecutive months; right at 14 million jobs during that time.  Over the past year the unemployment rate has dropped from 5.7% to the current 5%.   Hiring in December was led by professional firms. They added 73,000 jobs, though almost half were temporary. Construction companies added 45,000 new workers (but that might be more a sign of mild winter weather across much of the country in December, rather than a big upsurge in construction). Over the year, construction added 263,000 jobs, compared with a gain of 338,000 jobs in 2014. Health care employment rose by 39,000, with most …

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Financial Review

Another Record

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-19-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 13 = 18,312.39 (record) SPX – 1 = 2127 NAS – 8 = 5070 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.26% OIL – 2.17 = 57.26 GOLD – 17.80 = 1209.00 SILV – .61 = 17.17   Record high for the Dow Industrials.   Construction starts on new U.S. homes was up 20% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.14 million. That’s the biggest monthly percentage gain in over 24 years and the highest level since November 2007.  Total housing starts remain far below an average pace of about 1.5 million over the 20 years leading up to the housing bubble’s 2006 peak.   A board member of the European Central Bank says the ECB will “frontload” its asset purchases in May and June – that is, step up buying in those months – to maintain its monthly average of $67 billion, given an expected drop in liquidity in the summer vacation period. The policymaker also said the recent selloff in German bunds and other sovereign bonds is not a cause for concern but the rapidity of the move is worrying.   Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis told a Greek TV channel last night that Greece is “very close” to a deal, other officials are less enthusiastic. European Commission President Jean-Claude Junker said this morning that there will be no agreement for Greece at this week’s summit. …

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Financial Review

Blue Light Special

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-19-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 44 = 17,985 SPX – 2 = 2097 NAS + 18 = 4924 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.11% OIL – .77 = 51.37 GOLD – 6.10 = 1208.20 SILV – .12 = 16.48 The S&P 500 is up 5.2 percent in February, rebounding from a January slump. If the index holds those gains it will be the best monthly performance since October 2011.   Crude-oil futures fell to the lowest level in a week, after data showed inventories have built up much faster than expected. According to a report from the American Petroleum Institute late yesterday, US crude stocks rose by 14.3 million barrels last week vs. expectations of a 3.2 million. The today the US Energy Information Administration released a report showing crude inventories rose 7.7 million barrels for the week ended Feb. 13; that was about double expectations, but far less than the API report. And prices bounced back.   The latest EIA data peg total commercial crude inventories at 425 million barrels, with the government referring to the total as “the highest level for this time of year in at least the last 80 years.” One possible reason for the rising inventories is that there has been a United Steelworkers strike at 11 refineries that account for 13% of US output capacity.  A slowdown in refining would lessen the demand for crude …

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Financial Review

Labor Day 2014

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-01-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSLabor Day 2014 The markets are closed today. We have no economic news to report. It is Labor Day 2014; a holiday that likely doesn’t carry much weight with most of us; a day for a barbeque perhaps; maybe a trip to the lake or the beach or the mountains; possibly a day for shopping the Labor Day sales at the local mall; car dealers tell us this is Black Friday for car buyers. Fair enough. This is not the end of summer. Officially, summer lasts about 3 more weeks, unofficially it will feel like summer for at least a couple of months. For most of us, Labor Day 2014 is a Monday holiday, a chance to relax with family and friends. And that’s a good thing, but there is more to it. Observed on the first Monday in September, Labor Day pays tribute to the contributions and achievements of American workers. It was created by the labor movement in the late 19th century and became a federal holiday in 1894. In the late 1800s, at the height of the Industrial Revolution in the United States, the average American worked 12-hour days and seven-day weeks in order to eke out a basic living. Despite restrictions in some states, child labor was common. Very young children worked in factories or on farms, typically earning a fraction of the wages paid to adult workers. People of …

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Financial Review

Tuesday, June 03, 2014 – Always Look on the Bright Side

Always Look on the Bright Side by Sinclair Noe   DOW – 21 = 16,722 SPX – 0.73 = 1924 NAS – 3 = 4234 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.59% OIL + .37 = 102.84 GOLD + 1.40 = 1245.90 SILV + .05 = 18.91   Automakers reported strong sales of new cars in May, the strongest annual sales rate since before the 2008 financial crisis. Industry sales rose 11.3%. Chrysler and GM had their best month of May in 7 years. A record number of recalls at GM since the first of the year did not crimp demand for the automaker’s new vehicles. Average transaction price for a new vehicle in May was $32,307, according to research firm Kelley Blue Book, which said average new-car prices were up $653 from a year ago, but down slightly from April.   The city council of Seattle Washington has voted to raise the city’s minimum wage to $15 an hour, the highest level of any major US city. Wages would begin to rise next year, ultimately reaching $15 from Washington state’s minimum of $9.32 over three to seven years, depending on the business. Under the plan, firms with more than 500 employees nationally will be given at least three years to phase in the increase, those who provide health insurance subsidies would get four years and smaller businesses would be given seven years. US minimum wage is $7.25, although 38 states have set higher levels. The states of California, Connecticut …

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Uncategorized

Tuesday, February 18, 2014 – Econ Roundup

Econ Roundup by Sinclair Noe DOW – 23 = 16,130SPX + 2 = 1840NAS + 28 = 427210 YR YLD – .03 = 2.71%OIL + 2.14 = 102.27GOLD – 6.90 = 1323.30 SILV + .12 = 22.06 Homebuilders’ confidence in the housing market declined sharply this month as the severe weather battering much of the nation keeps many would-be buyers at home. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index dropped to 46. That’s down from January’s reading of 56 and is the lowest level since May. A reading of 50 is the tipping point between good and bad sales conditions. Certainly one sector singing the blues over the cold weather has been the airlines. More than 500 flights were cancelled today; almost 1,400 flights cancelled yesterday for the Presidents’ Day holiday and more than 4,000 delayed. The big day for cancellations was last Thursday, when more than 7,500 flights were scrapped. That’s bound to have some effect on revenue and earnings. Last week’s economic news was generally disappointing with weak payroll growth, mortgage applications slipping, retail sales dropping to the lowest growth rate of the recovery, and a sharp drop in manufacturing activity; that can’t all be blamed on bad weather. Several retailers didn’t even mention severe weather as they missed estimates for the holiday shopping season. US auto dealers have about $100 billion worth of unsold cars and trucks sitting on their lots. That level is striking given that car makers have pledged not to overstock …

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Uncategorized

Tuesday, January 28, 2014 – If I Had a Hammer

If I Had a Hammer by Sinclair Noe DOW + 90 = 15,928SPX + 10 = 1792NAS + 14 = 409710 YR YLD – .02 = 2.75%OIL + 1.50 = 97.22GOLD – .80 = 1256.70SILV – .13 = 19.66 The State of the Union is… tonight. President Obama will describe how he will use his pen and phone to overcome the Do-Nothing Congress, and the Republicans have ironically lined up not one, but three responses to refute the idea they are nothing more than obstreperous obstructionists. Everybody from the Pope to the big wigs in Davos have been talking about inequality and it will likely be a major theme in tonight’s speech. Job and wage growth has been broken since the 1990s. Median family incomes grew very slowly from 1979 to 1999, peaked that year, and have fallen 13% since. The economy has recovered since the near financial meltdown of 2008, but it has been the weakest recovery since the Great Depression, and one of the reasons it has been such a slow recovery is that the spoils of recovery have been unevenly distributed. Even though we have seen job growth in the past 54 months, 6 of the 10 fastest growing job categories are in low paying service sector positions, such as retail clerk and home health care aids. Middle class income is sinking; the ranks of the poor are rising; and the economic gains only go to the top, or 95% of all economic gains in the “recovery” …

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Uncategorized

Tuesday, January 14, 2014 – The Day the Net Died (Maybe)

The Day the Net Died (Maybe) by Sinclair Noe DOW + 115 = 16,373SPX + 19 = 1838NAS + 69 = 418310 YR YLD + .04 = 2.87%OIL + .83 = 92.63GOLD – 7.40 = 1246.00SILV – .15 = 20.36 A US appeals court has rejected federal rules that required Internet providers to treat all web traffic equally. The Federal Communications Commission’s open Internet rules, also known as net neutrality rules, required Internet service providers to give consumers equal access to all lawful content without restrictions or varying charges. The US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit struck down the regulation, which was passed in late 2010 and challenged in court by Verizon Communications. The decision that could allow mobile carriers and other broadband providers to charge content providers for faster access to websites and products, or block content, or slow down access. One argument is that a video and Internet provider would have an incentive to bog down a video streaming service such as Netflix in favor of its own sites. Or it could charge a toll to those who want their content delivered at a higher speed, which media watchdogs say would stifle innovation and favor big and powerful companies. The issue of companies playing favorites with their own content came to the forefront when Comcast announced plans to acquire NBCUniversal in 2009.  Comcast, the nation’s largest cable and Internet distributor, said in a statement that the court ruling would not change the company’s policies. …

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Uncategorized

Thursday, September 12, 2013 – Going Interstellar

Going Interstellar by Sinclair Noe DOW – 25 = 15,300SPX – 5 = 1683NAS – 9 = 371510 YR YLD – .01 = 2.91%OIL + .02 = 108.62GOLD – 44.80 = 1322.00 SILV– 1.48 = 21.84 The war hasn’t started…, yet. The peace talks are underway in Geneva between Secretary of State Kerry and his Russian counterpart Lavrov. In a news conference ahead of the Geneva talks, Foreign Minister Lavrov said the resolution of the chemical weapons issue in Syria would make any military strike by the United States unnecessary. The UN has confirmed it has received documents from Syria on joining the Chemical Weapons Convention, a key step in the Russian plan. Syria’s president said it would submit arms data one month after signing, but Mr Kerry has rejected that time-frame. Even before the talks, Russian President Vlad Putin weighed in with an op-ed in the New York Times arguing that a military strike risked “spreading the conflict far beyond Syria’s borders” and would violate international law, undermining postwar stability. Putin says poison gas was used in Syria but not by Assad; he also didn’t say who sold the poison gas to Syria; he talks about peace and democracy; and he finishes the editorial by saying “We are all different, but when we ask for the Lord’s blessings, we must not forget that God created us equal.” It’s all quite bizarre, to have Putin lecturing the US on democracy and morality and God. The good news is that the …

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