Financial Review

Welcome Back

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-05-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS…..Fed minutes show disagreement on timing. Factory orders slip. Home prices rise. Oil down. Volvo goes electric. Tesla must produce. Not the life O’Reilly. A glitch in tech. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-05-2017

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Financial Review

Jitters

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-05-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS…..ADP jobs up big. ISM services down but growing. FOMC Minutes point to unwinding balance sheet and overvalued markets. Tax reform uncertainty. Xi-Trump-North Korea-Syria. JAB buys Panera and rules a coffee empire. Mortgages bigger than ever. AZ forfeiture law. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-05-2017

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Financial Review

91 Days

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-22-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS…..Another Dow record. Fed minutes show rate hike “fairly soon”. Existing home sales jump. Shortage of construction workers. Fannie and Freddie must pay government, not shareholders. Facebook plays ball. First Solar beats. Verizon tests 5G. UPS tests drones. Amazon Bigthanks. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-22-2017

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Financial Review

Dovish Indeed

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-06-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFed minutes mixed with a hint of dovishness. Trade deficit grows on stronger dollar. ISM service side up. UK RE funds halt redemptions. Keep calm and move to Berlin or Paris. Gold up. Medivation on the block. PBGC and Central States Pension going broke. Messi messed up but misses another penalty. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-06-2016

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Financial Review

Don’t Fight the Fed

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-18-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS  FOMC minutes show a June rate hike is on the table; Goldman sees no reason to own equities; plus overtime wages, steel tariffs, and if you have further questions ask that Google thingie. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-18-2016

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Financial Review

Discretionary Reading

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-19-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-19-2015 DOW – 162 = 17,348 SPX – 17 = 2079 NAS – 40 = 5019 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.13% OIL – 2.02 = 40.60 GOLD + 16.60 = 1135.10 SILV + .44 = 15.41   A new CPI report this morning shows inflation remains muted. The consumer price index, a measure of prices at the retail level, rose 0.1% in July to mark the smallest increase in three months. Yet the cost of housing, the largest expense for most Americans, continued to rise, up 0.4% last month, reflecting the biggest gain in more than eight years. And housing expenses have climbed 3.1% in the past 12 months, the largest annual increase since 2008. The prices of most other consumer goods were little changed in July. Food prices climbed 0.2% while energy prices rose a smaller 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, so-called core consumer prices also advanced 0.1% in July. Aside from shelter, prices for clothes and medical care also rose.   Even though energy prices were up slightly in July, that might not last; eventually the price at the pump for gasoline should reflect the price of oil, which has now dropped to a 6 year low of $40.60 per barrel. Based upon historical pricing for oil and gas, we should be paying about $2.00 to $2.10 a gallon at the pump. Gas prices should …

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Financial Review

Ongoing Criminal Enterprises

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-20-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair noe DOW – 26 = 18,285 SPX – 1 = 2125 NAS + 1 = 5071 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.25% OIL + .77 = 58.76 GOLD + 1.80 = 1210.80 SILV un = 17.18   April 29 and 30 the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee met to determine monetary policy; today, they published the minutes of that meeting. There were no surprises. Policymakers have no plans to increase interest rate targets in June. We all knew that. Officials in April “had increased uncertainty regarding the economic outlook,” the minutes showed. They had no good reason to explain why consumer spending was so weak.  “Most” Fed officials think the dramatic slowdown in growth in the first quarter was transitory and that a moderate rebound would resume in the second quarter. Inflation was also expected to move higher.  The international context isn’t helpful to the US economy. Fed officials deem “foreign economic and financial developments” as constituting “potential downside risks,” and they specifically mention Greece and China. Moreover, despite its recent partial retracement, the dollar’s appreciation is “likely to continue to be a factor restraining US net exports and economic growth for a time.”   This suggests that they see a rate hike coming sometime later this year. Only a “few” on the U.S. central bank questioned whether the Fed was providing enough stimulus for the economy at the present …

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Financial Review

Goodbye Patience

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-08-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 27 = 17,902 SPX + 5 = 2081 NAS + 40 = 4950 10 YR YLD un = 1.89% OIL – 3.05 = 50.93 GOLD – 5.50 = 1203.20 SILV – .32 = 16.61   We start today with a big acquisition in the oil industry. Royal Dutch Shell agreed to buy BG Group for about $70 billion in cash and shares, the oil and gas industry’s biggest deal in at least a decade; since 2004 when Royal Dutch Shell was created. This is the biggest acquisition this year and the 10th biggest M&A deal overall, and the fourth biggest deal overall in the oil industry. The merged company will boast a market value twice the size of BP, and even larger than Chevron. ExxonMobil is still the 800 pound gorilla with market cap north of $350 billion.   To win over shareholders, Shell pledged cost savings of $2.5 billion, asset disposals of at least $30 billion within four years and a giant buyback of $25 billion from 2017 to 2020. Shell investors reacted coolly to the deal. Shell’s B shares, the class of stock being used to finance the deal, fell about 7% percent in London. For BG it represents a 50% premium.   BG Group is the exploration part of the former state owned British Gas that was privatized by Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s. British …

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Financial Review

Justice Delayed is Par for the Course

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-18-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 17 = 18,029 SPX – 0.66 = 2099 NAS + 7 = 4906 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.06% OIL – 2.56 = 50.97   The S&P 500 closed above 2,100 for the first time ever on Tuesday, delivering year-end target goals to Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse and Barclays nearly 11 months early.   Greece confirms that it plans to submit a request to the euro zone tomorrow to extend a “loan agreement” for up to six months, but EU paymaster Germany says Athens must stick to the terms of its existing international bailout. Greece wants to maintain a budget surplus before interest payments equal to 1.5 percent of gross domestic product; the current plan calls for a budget surplus equal to 4.5 percent of GDP. It’s still unclear what the terms of the extension will look like, as both Athens and its creditors seem determined not to compromise over the loan’s conditions.   The Federal Reserve released minutes from the January 27-28 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The minutes reveal that “Many participants indicated that their assessment of the balance of risks associated with the timing of the beginning of policy normalization had inclined them toward keeping the federal funds rate at its effective lower bound for a longer time.” Allow me to translate; the Fed would like to put off raising interest rates because the economy is …

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Uncategorized

Wednesday, January 08, 2014 – Tapering is Not Tightening

Tapering is Not Tightening by Sinclair Noe DOW – 68 = 16,462SPX – 0.39 = 1837NAS + 12 = 416510 YR YLD + .06 = 2.99%OIL – 1.15 = 92.52GOLD – 5.90 = 1226.90SILV – .32 = 19.62 Repeat after me: “tapering is not tightening.” This is the new mantra of the Fed; tapering is not tightening. Today we got the minutes of the Fed FOMC policy meeting of December 17-18, and one of the themes is that the policy setting members of the Fed want to proceed with caution in trimming asset purchases and tapering is not on a rigid preset course; it is subject to incoming economic data and tapering is not tightening. You will recall that the Fed announced it would cut purchases by $10 billion per month, while still making $75 billion a month in purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. The minutes reveal “concern about the potential for an unintended tightening of financial conditions if a reduction in the pace of asset purchases was misinterpreted as signaling that the committee was likely to withdraw policy accommodation more quickly than had been anticipated.” So, it’s just a little tapering, not tightening. That said, even the more dovish policymakers had to concede that QE does not pack the punch it might have once packed. From the minutes: Regarding the marginal efficacy of the purchase program, most participants viewed the program as continuing to support accommodative financial conditions, with a number of them pointing to the importance of …

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