Uncategorized

Friday, May 31, 2013 – Economic Wallbanger

Economic Wallbanger by Sinclair Noe DOW – 208 = 15,115SPX – 23 = 1630NAS – 35 = 345510 YR YLD + .04 = 2.16%OIL – 1.98 = 91.63 GOLD – 25.40 = 1389.30SILV – .51 = 22.37 We finish the month of May with the Dow Industrials up 1.9% on the month; the S&P 500 posted a monthly gain of 2.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite added 3.8% for the month. With this week’s declines, the MACD indicator for the Sell in May strategy, finally turned negative, just in case you had been waiting. The S&P 500 marked seventh monthly advance, its longest monthly winning streak since one ending in September 2009. The Dow industrials recorded their sixth straight monthly gain. Treasury prices dropped again today to finish their worst monthly performance since December 2010; the yield on the 10-year note climbed 46 basis points on the month. At one point during today’s trading, the yield topped 2.20%. Next week, we’ll see how the labor market is behaving. Today we found out that the unemployment rate for the 17 nation Eurozone has increased to 12.2%, the highest level since data has been compiled starting in 1995. Consumer price inflation was far below the ECB’s target of just below 2%, coming in at 1.4% in May, slightly above April’s 1.2% rate. Price increases may quiet concerns about deflation, but the deepening unemployment crisis is a threat to the social fabric of the eurozone, with almost two-thirds of young Greeks unable to find …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Wednesday, February 20, 2013 – Seeds of Change

Seeds of Change by Sinclair Noe DOW – 108 = 13,927 SPX – 18 = 1511NAS – 49 = 316410 YR YLD – .01 = 2.02%OIL – 2.28 = 94.82GOLD – 40.50 = 1565.10SILV – .87 = 28.67 We may be seeing the seeds of change. Today, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from the January 30 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. The minutes reveal that several FOMC policymakers think it might be time to shake things up, vary the pace of their $85 billion dollar per month bond purchase program. According to the minutes, the debate “emphasized that the committee should be prepared to vary the pace of asset purchases, either in response to changes in the economic outlook or as its evaluation of the efficacy and costs of such purchases evolved.” The minutes of the FOMC meeting states: “Several participants noted that a very large portfolio of long-duration assets would, under certain circumstances, expose the Federal Reserve to significant capital losses when these holdings were unwound. Others pointed to offsetting factors, and one noted that losses would not impede the effective operation of monetary policy.” The Fed  at its January meeting decided to continue buying $45 billion a month of Treasuries and $40 billion in mortgage- debt without setting a limit on the duration or total size of the purchases. Policy makers also affirmed their pledge to keep the target interest rate near zero “at least as long” as unemployment remains above 6.5 percent and inflation …

READ MORE →