Financial Review

Big Bounce

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-16-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Best day for Wall Street since March. Earnings on parade: Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Domino’s, Netlfix, IBM, UnitedHealth, United Air, Target-ing Toys. More than one job for everybody. Paul Allen passes. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-16-2018

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Financial Review

Got It

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-18-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 12.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Stocks drift higher. Beige Book shows steady growth and tariff worries. Berkshire buyback. Trump on Russia: they didn’t do it, they did it, they aren’t continuing to do it. Pizza and burgers. EU fines Google. Amazon Prime smash hit. Morgan Stanley beats. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-18-2018

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Financial Review

Market Drift

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-18-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Oil jumps on draw downs. $3 a gallon soon. Morgan Stanley delivers but fails to wow. Beige Book concerns on tariffs. Amazon 100 million Prime. Puerto Rico blackout, again. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-18-2018

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Financial Review

The Pause Before the Shutdown

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-18-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Stocks slip. Shutdown looms. Amazon HQ2 – and then there were 20. Jobless claims fall. Morgan Stanley beats. AmEx loss. IBM has revenue. Why all the tax charges? Construction slips. Remodeling booms. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-18-2018

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Financial Review

Everybody Wants to Go to Heaven

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-01-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..ISM manufacturing reverts to strong. Construction spending up. Fed FOMC stands pat. Jay Powell likely pick. GOP tax plan delayed due to math. Facebook beats. Tesla posts big loss. Wells Fargo, again. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-01-2017

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Financial Review

23K(ish)

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-17-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow and S&P record high closes. A short-term deal on ACA. NAFTA talks fail. Travel ban blocked. Morgan Stanley and Goldman report. IBM declining-revenue streak continues. Netflix the new movie giant. Volvo v. Tesla. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-17-2017

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Financial Review

Inside Bank Earnings

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-19-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Energy prices slip. Stocks weak. Beige Book sees problems with tight labor. Fed policymakers on gradual path to raise rates and trim balance sheet. Earnings season. Morgan Stanley beats Goldman. eBay can’t beat Amazon. Qualcomm bogged down by litigation. AmEx after Costco. Blackrock rules ETFs. Understanding bank earnings. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-19-2017

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Financial Review

The Last Man on the Moon

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1A-01-17-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 12:15 — 5.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..King Dollar gonna kill us all. Earnings season and weak forward guidance will be punished. Forget about soft Brexit. Xi to Davos. Deutsche Bank settles. BAT tobacco behemoth. Exxon buys Texas. Saudis ready to end cuts. GM announces jobs. Hyundai announces jobs. Walmart announces jobs. Lowe’s cuts. The last man on the moon. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-17-2017

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Financial Review

From Beige to Blue

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-19-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Beige Book moderately optimistic, except Houston. Building starts down, mainly apartments. Saudi Arabia issues debt. China’s 3Q GDP 6.7%, again. Earnings: Intel beats but forecast misses, Morgan Stanley beats, Yahoo beats, Halliburton posts a penny, Amex misses Costco. Google all-time high. New Macs? Don’t pay for delayed luggage. Americans work more. Arizona turning blue. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-19-2016

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Financial Review

An Imperfect Circle

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-14-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Waiting on the Fed FOMC. The FCIC recommended criminal investigation of banksters but the DOJ lost the memo.  And today is Pi Day.

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Financial Review

Tug of War

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-19-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-19-2016 DOW + 27 = 16,016 SPX + 1 = 1881 NAS – 11 = 4476 10 Y un 2.04% OIL – 1.13 = 28.29 GOLD – 1.30 = 1088.50   Just a reminder that last Friday saw the Dow drop 390 and the S&P too down 41, taking out the August lows of 1867 with an intra-day low of 1857. This morning Wall Street started the session with a bounce, but it didn’t hold; in the afternoon the major averages turned negative; the S&P went back down to test support at 1865. We are seeing an important level of support at 1857 to 1867 on the S&P. We told you on Friday that would need to see confirmation in the form of a close below 1867. It did not happen today. The Nasdaq Composite did close below the September low of 4487. The Dow Industrials are still above the August lows off 15,666. You don’t even want to look at charts of the Russell 2000 index or the Dow Transports; they are just ugly.   And then if you move away from Wall Street, the economy doesn’t look too bad: 70 consecutive months of job growth, the unemployment rate at 5%, GDP growth probably around 2% to 2.5% (not great but compared to the rest of the world it looks decent), oil prices falling, which should be …

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Financial Review

Black Monday + 28

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-19-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:18 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-19-2015 DOW + 14 = 17,230 SPX + 0.55 = 2033 NAS + 18 = 4905 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.03% OIL – 1.07 = 46.19 GOLD – 7.10 = 1171.60 SILV – .20 = 15.93   Twenty-eight years ago today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average crashed; a one day loss of 508 points, or 22.6%, down to 1,738 on what is now referred to as Black Monday. It was by far the largest one-day percentage drop in US stock market history.   China’s economy grew 6.9% in the third quarter from a year ago, beating forecasts for 6.8% growth. The results add to doubts the country can meet its year-end GDP target of about 7%, and raises pressure on Beijing to roll out more stimulus measures following a summer stock market plunge and devaluation of the yuan. Most China analysts also feel the GDP number is fictional, probably more like 3% than 6.9%, but it’s still the slowest growth since 2009.  China has been cutting its holdings of US Treasuries for the first time since 2001, but so far demand remains strong from other foreign investors and American investors.   Last month, Chinese President Xi Jingping visited Washington and an agreement was announced that China and the US would refrain from cyberattacks by each country on the other or on companies domiciled in the respective countries. Yeah, not so much. …

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Financial Review

A Low Bar

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-20-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 208 = 18,034 SPX + 19 = 2100 NAS + 62 = 4994 10 YR YLD + .05 = 1.90% OIL + .76 = 56.50 No major economic data published today. The global markets have been focused on China and Greece. China is changing regulations and adding stimulus to try and prop up the economy, even as some of their big real estate development companies are staring down defaults. The problem with Greece is that they are ready to default; payments are due at the end of the week and they are scrambling for cash. Perhaps more importantly, earnings season will kick into high gear this week. Maybe all that will take a backseat to a facedown off the shore of Yemen. The US Navy has sent an aircraft carrier and a guided-missile cruiser into the waters near Yemen to conduct maritime security operations, and not to intercept Iranian arms shipments. It’s believed there are 9 US ships in the region, including cruisers and destroyers. It is further believed the Iranian Navy has sent up to 5 ships full of weapons bound for Houthi rebels in Yemen. Yea, what could go wrong?   Following soft GDP data last week, China’s central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio for all banks by 100 basis points to 18.5% yesterday, adding about $200 billion in liquidity for banks to lend. Last …

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Financial Review

Skim Just a Little

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-20-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 33 = 17,719 SPX + 4 = 2052 NAS + 26 = 4701 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.33% OIL + 1.50 = 76.00 GOLD + 11.40 = 1195.50 SILV+ .12 = 16.35 Record high close for the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 index. The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, measures inflation at the retail level; prices that you and I pay for stuff. Prices were unchanged in October at an annualized rate of 1.7%. Lower gasoline prices offset increases in housing (up 0.3%), medical care (up 0.2%) and airline fares (which increased 2.4% despite lower fuel costs). The price of gasoline fell 3% last month. The cost of food edged up 0.1% in October, but that was the smallest gain in four months. Fruits, vegetables, dairy and beef increased in cost, but pork, chicken, fish and eggs all declined. Food prices are up 3.1% from a year earlier. Excluding the up-and-down food and energy categories, core consumer prices rose 0.2%. Over the past 12 months the core rate of inflation has risen an unadjusted 1.8%. Initial jobless claims fell by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 291,000 in the week ended Nov. 15. The number of people who applied for new unemployment benefits totaled fewer than 300,000 for the 10th straight week. The National Association of Realtors reports sales of existing homes rose 1.5% in October to a …

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Financial Review

Floors and Ceilings

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-17-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 263 = 16,380 SPX + 24 = 1886 NAS + 41 = 4258 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.20% OIL + .27 = 82.97 GOLD – .70 = 1239.20 SILV – .10 = 17.37 The markets were down for the week, even with the bounce today. For the week, the Dow and the S&P each dropped about 1%; the Dow was down 164 points on the week, and the S&P was down 20 points. The S&P is now down for 4 consecutive weeks. Let’s take a look at the charts. Earlier in the week I talked about support and resistance. Someone mentioned to me that they weren’t quite clear on the concept. So, here is a good way to look at these topics. Support is the floor and resistance is the ceiling. Think of a chart as a staircase under construction. The stairs are being built, hopefully higher and higher, and to prop up the stairs, you have to have a structure, or floors and ceilings. When you break through the ceiling to a new higher level, that ceiling then becomes the floor for the next level up. In other words, resistance becomes support. If the staircase of price falls, the last floor will catch you, or provide support. Then to go higher yet again, you will have to punch through that ceiling, or resistance, again. So, let’s look …

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Financial Review

You Can’t Get There From Here

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-02-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 30 = 17,067 SPX – 1 = 2002 NAS + 17 = 4598 10 YR YLD + .08 = 2.42% OIL – 3.08 = 92.88 GOLD – 21.70 = 1266.50 SILV – .31 = 19.25 The S&P 500 hit an intraday record just over 2,006 shortly after the opening bell, but then turned negative. Morgan Stanley strategists said that the bull market could run for another five years and carry the S&P close to 3,000. They say the stock market is likely to keep “grinding higher,” helped by foreign investors for whom it’s “the only place to go.” But investors should remain aware of risks in the market, including the fact that zero interest-rate policies mean central bankers can’t lower rates to counter outside shocks. A strong dollar and continued concerns about demand pulled crude-oil futures to their lowest settlement since January. Brent futures ended at their lowest in nearly 18 months, and other energy commodities also notched multi-month lows. With Labor Day marking the end of the US driving season, refinery turnarounds are expected to start in earnest. Tensions rose in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, with President Vladimir Putin reportedly telling a European Commission leader he saying he could take Kiev in two weeks. Russia did not deny the report, although officials there said the remarks had been taken out of context. Libya’s outgoing cabinet has acknowledged …

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Financial Review

Financial Review for Thursday, May 01, 2014 – If the Cops Never Arrest the Killer, Nobody Really Died

If the Cops Never Arrest the Killer, Nobody Really Died by Sinclair Noe DOW – 21 = 16,558SPX – 0.27 = 1883NAS + 12 = 412710 YR YLD – .04 = 2.60%OIL – .39 = 99.35GOLD – 6.40 = 1285.90SILV – .13 = 19.12 No record high for the Dow today. The Industrial Average was up and down, up and down throughout the day, but couldn’t hold positive territory. Today’s economic reports showed consumer spending increased, as did manufacturing activity, and unemployment claims. Consumer spending increased 0.9 percent in March after rising by 0.5 percent in February, the largest gain in more than 4-1/2 years. The top 6 automakers backed up the spending report by reporting year over year gains in sales. The spending report supports the notion that cold weather just paused consumer activity and there is pent up demand that will lead to more economic activity in the second quarter. Income increased 0.5 percent in March, the biggest gain since last summer, but with spending outpacing income growth, the saving rate, which is the percentage of disposable income households are socking away, hit a 14-month low. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index of national factory activity rose to 54.9 last month, up from 53.7 in March. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the nation’s factories. Manufacturing activity has now accelerated for 3 consecutive months and last month’s gains were driven by a pickup in employment, export orders and inventories; although new orders were unchanged. …

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Uncategorized

Thursday, March 20, 2014 – Stress Tests and Such

Stress Tests and Suchby Sinclair Noe DOW + 108 = 16331SPX + 11 = 1872NAS + 11 = 431910 YR YLD un = 2.77%OIL – .27 = 98.63GOLD – 2.10 = 1329.50 SILV – .34 = 20.37 More sanctions for and from Russia; President Obama today expanded sanctions against Putin’s inner circle, now banning visas and freezing assets of 20; the blacklist now includes a commodity broker with a brokerage based in Switzerland, plus Bank Rossiya with about $10 billion in assets. In response, the Russian Duma, the lower house of parliament ratified the annexation of Crimea, and Putin announced sanctions against US oligarchs, including Senators John McCain and Harry Reid, and House Speaker John Boehner. McCain said he would have to cancel his plans for Spring break in Siberia. There is an EU summit underway, and it remains to be seen if European leaders will get tough with sanctions. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been talking tough but the Euro-economy is still fragile, and it is doubtful sanctions will serve as a strong deterrent. This is not to say that sanctions won’t have an effect. Some of Russia’s largest companies are registered abroad where they may benefit from lower tax rates. You might not have caught this next bit of news, after all there was a lot going on today with the Russian sanctions and the breaking news on the missing plane and the basketball brackets and such; anyway, in Florida today, after talking about sanctions, President Obama called …

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Uncategorized

Tuesday, December 18, 2012 – Blame It On Whatever You Want

Blame It On Whatever You Want by Sinclair Noe DOW + 115 = 13,350 SPX + 16 = 1446NAS + 43 = 305410 YR YLD +.06 = 1.83%OIL + .79 = 87.99GOLD – 27.20 = 1671.90SILV – .64 = 31.74 The markets rallied on news the fiscal cliff negotiations are closer to a resolution. No, no, wait a minute; the markets experienced a Santa Claus Rally. No, no, wait a minute; just make up whatever excuse you want. No, no, wait a minute; the Federal Reserve announced QE4 last week, even though we’re not supposed to call it QE4, and they are just printing money like banshees, although I’m not sure banshees know how to print money, but the point is they are juicing the economy to the tune of $85 billion a month, and you know that has to have some sort of effect. Why sure; all this money just has to end up in the stock market eventually. You might also expect the dollar to fall. You might also have expected additional strength in the government bond market, because $85 billion pretty much covers all of the expected new issuance going forward, plus many entities still need to buy U.S. bonds for a variety of fiduciary reasons. With little product for sale and lots of bids by various players; one of which, the Fed, has their own printing press and so money is no object in the move to drive prices higher and yields lower; that’s a recipe …

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Uncategorized

Monday, December 17, 2012 – Unconnected Dots

Unconnected Dots by Sinclair Noe DOW + 100 = 13,235SPX + 16 = 1430NAS + 39 = 301010 YR YLD +.05 = 1.76%OIL +.71 = 87.44GOLD + 1.90 = 1699.10SILV -.03 = 32.38 President Obama and House Speaker Boehner met at the White House today. Aides from both parties said they were optimistic that a deal could be reached in the coming days to avert the “fiscal cliff,” as lawmakers set the stage for action before a year-end deadline. A senior Republican aide said: “There’s been too much progress at this point and neither guy wants to go over the cliff.” Although both sides still had major differences, investors were cheered by signs of progress. Major market indices moved higher in the afternoon, and some of that was the feel good part of the news cycle; we certainly need some good news. Now, we sit back and see whether it was yet another rumor. Boehner, the speaker of the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, has edged closer to Obama’s demand to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans. In return, Obama is considering a measure that would slow the rate of growth of Social Security retirement benefits by changing the way they are measured against inflation. Boehner has put forward a tax increase for those earning over $1 million annually, while Obama wants that threshold set at $250,000. Republicans could probably stomach a tax hike on incomes above $500,000. Boehner could float the broad outlines of a deal with rank-and-file members on …

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