Financial Review

Gravity

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-15-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Stocks fall after 8 gains. Bond fall hard, yields jump to highest levels in 7 years. Mortgage rates jump. Retail sales strong but Home Depot disappoints. Primaries in 4 states. North Korea cancels talks with South Korea. The biggest pot deal ever. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-15-2018

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Financial Review

Pause

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-16-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow waits for assault on 19,000. PPI unchanged. Industrial production unchanged. Mortgage rates up. Fed ready to hike rates. Bill Gross isn’t buying the Trump Bump. Snapchat files to go public. Amazon goes after knockoffs. Twitter goes after trolls. EU will fine more banksters. SEC finally addresses Flash Crash. Ford still going to Mexico. Playstation Fiesta Bowl. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-16-2016

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Financial Review

Pushed Out

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-01-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFed jawbones. Low rates keep stocks inflated. Oil continues to slide. Construction spending falls. ISM manufacturing falls. Mortgages near all-time lows. Verizon-Fleetmatic. Tesla-SolarCity. Didi Chuching-Uber China. Glaxo-Alphabet Verily. Pfizer-Bamboo. Ready for Rio. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-01-2016

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Financial Review

That’s Her Story

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-10-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-10-2016   DOW – 99 = 15,914 SPX – 0.35 = 1851 NAS + 14 = 4283 10 Y – .02 = 1.70% OIL – .64 = 27.30 GOLD + 8.00 = 1197.80   Fed Chair Janet Yellen delivered her semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony in Washington today in her first major appearance since the Fed’s rate hike last December. In prepared testimony, Yellen said

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Financial Review

Justice Deterred

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-10-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-10-2015 DOW + 76 = 16,330 SPX + 10 = 1952 NAS + 39 = 4796 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.22% OIL + 1.51 = 45.66 GOLD + 5.10 = 1111.90 SILV + .10 = 14.81   Wholesale inventories decreased by 0.1% in July, while wholesale sales dropped 0.3%. At July’s sales pace, the inventory-to-sales ratio was unchanged at 1.30 months.   The number of Americans getting laid off from their jobs remains near the lowest level in decades. Initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 275,000 in the period running from Aug. 30 to Sep. 5. New claims have been under the key 300,000 level for 27 straight weeks. The last time the pace of layoffs was even lower for such a long stretch was in 1973.   The prices the U.S. paid for imported goods fell by 1.8% in August, marking the biggest decline since the start of the year. Oil prices fell sharply again and strong dollar has also made foreign products cheaper for Americans to buy. Excluding fuel, U.S. import prices declined by a 0.4% last month. Meanwhile, the price of U.S.-made goods exported to other nations dropped 1.4%.   Mortgage rates were little changed ahead of the Federal Reserve’s key rate decision next week. Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said the 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 3.90% in the week ending Sept. 10, up …

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Financial Review

Muppets in the Lobby

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-13-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-13-2015 DOW + 5 = 17,408 SPX – 2 = 2083 NAS – 10 = 5033 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.19% OIL – 1.07 = 42.23 GOLD – 10.80 = 1115.70 SILV – .12 = 15.52 So, stocks closed basically flat, but it was a roller coaster ride. The major indices started the day in negative territory, then recovered, only to slide into the close. This was a very busy day for economic reports.   Sales at US retailers were solid in July and stronger than previously estimated for May and June. Retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% last month, or by 0.4% excluding the auto sector. In the retail sales data in July, the gains were led by the auto sector, where sales jumped 1.4%. This was expected as the light vehicle selling rate rose to a seasonally adjusted 17.5 million units, the second best result since early 2006. And just a quick reminder that many auto sales are imports. But the sales gain in July was broad based. All sectors showed increases except electronics and general merchandise and department stores. In the past year, retail sales have risen 2.4%.   A side note here; it may seem strange that consumers are spending less on electronics, after all it seems like everybody has smartphones and other electro-gadgets; the reality is that we are buying …

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Financial Review

Preview

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-06-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-06-2015   DOW – 120 = 17,419 SPX – 16 = 2083 NAS – 83 = 5056 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.23% OIL – .31 = 44.84 GOLD + 5.00 = 1090.50 SILV + .06 = 14.76   Jobless claims rose by 3,000 to 270,000 in the week ended August 1. Firings are at historically low levels as employers hold on to more workers. More hiring would help convince Federal Reserve policy makers that the economy can withstand an increase in the benchmark interest rate this year. Claims have remained below the 300,000 level since March.   Outplacement consult Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports employers announced 105,696 layoffs last month. A year ago, U.S. companies announced plans to cut 46,887 jobs. The Army accounted for more than half of the total with 57,000 cuts expected over the next two years. The technology sector also contributed to July’s announced job reductions, with computer and electronics companies announcing 18,891 layoffs in July.   Tomorrow is the big monthly jobs report; and it probably represents the most important data the Fed will consider before the September 17 FOMC meeting. And the Fed will need to communicate any action beforehand to avoid disruption in the financial markets. We may be seeing a rate hike being priced in right now. The major averages came off session lows in the close. …

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Financial Review

The Value of Everything

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 5 = 17,745 SPX + .06 = 2108 NAS + 17 = 5128 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.27% OIL – .27 = 48.35 GOLD – 8.40 = 1089.30 SILV – .08 = 14.83   Gross domestic product rose at a 2.3% annual rate from April to June, missing expectations for 2.6% growth. First quarter GDP was revised to show 0.6 percent growth after previous reports showed a 0.2 percent downturn. The latest reading on GDP was propelled by higher consumer spending on big-ticket items such as new cars and trucks and the strongest housing market in years. Personal spending accounted for two percent of the 2.3% headline increase.   Builders increased spending on new home construction at a 6.6% clip in the spring, especially for townhouses, condos and apartment units. That follows 10% gains in the prior two quarters. US exports, meanwhile, snapped back with a 5.3% increase after a 6% drop in the first quarter. Imports rose at a slower 3.5% pace. The improved trade figures also gave the economy a small boost.   Business investment was weak again. Outlays on equipment declined 4.1% and the value of inventories fell slightly to $110 billion from $112.8 billion. Spending on structures such as oil platforms fell 1.6%, largely because of the drop in oil prices. The story on the economy remains consistent: strong consumption, weak investment. …

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Financial Review

Admit It

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-08-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 323 = 17,907 SPX + 36 = 2062 NAS + 85 = 4736 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.01% OIL + .08 = 48.73 GOLD – 2.20 = 1209.90 SILV – .16 = 16.48 Since 1928, the Standard & Poor’s 500 has started the year with 3 straight losing days eight times. And only once has the S&P 500 finished one of those years in the red. During the 8 years since 1928 that the S&P started with 3-day losing streaks, the index has returned 8.3% on average. For all years since 1928, the S&P has returned 7.5% on average. Maybe it’s a good thing to start the year with 3 straight losing sessions. Then there is the idea that the first 5 trading sessions of the year can be used to extrapolate the direction of the market for the year. If that is the case, then we might expect some rough sledding for the markets in the early part of the year followed by a strong second half of the year. This is a variation on the idea of the January barometer, which says (basically) that if January is positive, the year will be positive, and vice versa; that didn’t work last year, but it is accurate about 89% of the time. Of course, that’s just probabilities and tendencies. We don’t know where the market …

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Financial Review

A Boatload of Economic News and Earnings Reports

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-23-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 216 = 16,677 SPX + 23 = 1950 NAS + 69 = 4452 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.28% OIL + 1.33 = 81.85 GOLD – 9.10 = 1232.90 SILV + .02 = 17.30 The S&P 500 has risen five times in the past six days, pushing the gauge up 4.9 percent since Oct. 15 and recouping about half the losses from a selloff that began in mid-September; the S&P is still down about 3 percent from a record. The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which tracks deals involving mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, said home prices in August were up 4.8% from the year-earlier period; and up a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in August from July. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 3.92 percent, down from 3.97 percent last week. The average 15-year rate dropped to 3.08 percent from 3.18 percent. Mortgage rates are now at the lowest levels since the summer of 2013. Refinancing applications jumped 23 percent in the week ended Oct. 17 to an 11-month high. The number of people who applied for US unemployment benefits rose by 17,000 last week to 283,000, but initial claims remained below the key 300,000 level for the sixth straight week. The Conference Board’s leading economic index rose 0.8% in September, after no change in August. The index points toward improving employment and income growth …

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Uncategorized

Thursday, January 02, 2014 – Back in the Groove

Back in the Groove by Sinclair Noe DOW – 135 = 16,441SPX – 16 = 1831NAS – 33 = 414310 YR YLD – .04 = 2.99%OIL – 2.93 = 95.49GOLD + 17.50 = 1224.00SILV + .57 = 20.11 I’m back. We’ll try to settle into the groove here, starting with a look at the daily economic news. Financial data firm Markit said its final US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to 55.0 last month, beating November’s 54.7 reading. So, manufacturing ended the year on a high note, growing in December at the fastest pace in 11 months. Signs of strength in both the manufacturing and services sector as well as stronger job growth across the economy contributed to the Federal Reserve’s decision in December to begin tapering, slowing its monthly bond purchases. I had expected the Fed would wait to begin the taper. I was wrong. It wasn’t really a shocking development because we knew they would eventually taper, it was just a matter of timing. The taper hasn’t actually started yet, it’s only been announced. One area where we’re starting to see some impact is in mortgage rates, now at the highest levels since September. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 4.53% this week, up from 4.48%. And Freddie Mac also reports the average 15-year fixed rate climbed to 3.55% from 3.52%. While a jump in mortgage rates has slowed demand, buyers continued to push prices higher. According to the most recent S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, …

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Uncategorized

Wednesday, November 20, 2013 – Fed Minutes, Fed Conundrum

Fed Minutes, Fed Conundrum by Sinclair Noe DOW – 66 = 15,900SPX – 6 = 1781NAS – 10 = 392110 YR YLD + .09 = 2.79%OIL – .01 = 93.33GOLD – 32.40 = 1243.80SILV – .49 = 19.95 The Federal Open Market Committee, Federal Reserve policy makers, met October 29-30, and to no one’s surprise they did not change monetary policy. Today, minutes of that meeting were released. The policy makers “generally expected that the data would prove consistent with the Committee’s outlook for ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and would thus warrant trimming the pace of purchases in coming months.” They think the economy is improving, despite the government shutdown and ongoing political dysfunction, the economy is getting better and the FOMC is considering how and when they can exit Quantitative Easing; they would like to scale back $85 billion per month in purchases of Treasuries and mortgage backed securities without triggering a rise in interest rates that could slow economic growth and wipe out gains in the labor market. That is not to say they are ready to raise their Fed Funds target for interest rates. That target has been right at zero and will likely remain at zero for at least a year or more. They want to get out of the bond buying business without the market noticing, and independently pushing interest rates higher. It’ll be a fine trick if they can pull it off. In a speech to the National Economists Club, Ben Bernanke …

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Uncategorized

Tuesday, September 18, 2012 – Maybe We’ll Just Keep Plugging Along

Maybe We’ll Just Keep Plugging Along -by Sinclair Noe DOW + 11 = 13,564SPX – 1 = 1459NAS -0.87 = 317710 YR YLD -.03 = 1.81%OIL +.24 = 95.53GOLD + 8.60 = 1772.10SILV + .53 = 34.88PLAT – 38.00 = 1635.00 FedEx lowered its outlook for global growth and industrial production when it reported fiscal first-quarter earnings. That has negative implications for energy demand. The world’s No. 2 package delivery company forecast a continued slowdown in global trade. Yesterday, we told you about the little flash crash in oil. The price of a barrel of oil dropped $3 in about one minute for no apparent reason. There were rumors of an announced or leaked SPR release decision, then there were rumors of an algorithmic trade gone bad. The timing was suspect; the equity and other markets have rallied due to all of the announced and expected easing measures from the Fed and the ECB; the belief is that consumption and economic growth will necessarily follow due to extremely low interest rates and the positive effect of inflation on asset values. And commodity prices, including oil, moved higher after QE 1&2. So, it was strange to see prices just drop for no apparent reason; they seemed to collapse of their own weight. Maybe the outlook for the economy is more dire than we think. Maybe demand for oil is far less than projected. Maybe the Fed has done all they can and they’ve run out of firepower. Maybe the odd price …

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