Financial Review

When Money Slows Down

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-09-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:10 — 7.5MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Nasdaq up for 8. Wholesale prices flatline. Why worry about overshooting inflation targets. Money velocity at near record lows. Fed mops up surplus cash. Markets don’t reinvest for future growth. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-09-2018

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Financial Review

Did It Again

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-12-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Nasdaq new high. China-US might talk. Powell concerned. CPI inches up; we have inflation. Housing inventory thaws. Broadcom bombs. AT&T-Time Warner appeal. Oops, Papa John did it again. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-12-2018

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Financial Review

Chips and Salsa

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-14-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Nasdaq hits a record high. ECB dovish with plans to end bond buying. Why it matters. Looming risk – trade wars. Retail sales jump. Kentucky sues Walgreens. NY sues Trump Foundation. DOJ IG blames Comey. AT&T-Time Warner cleared. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-14-2018

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Financial Review

It’s Different Because…

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-05-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Nasdaq record high. OPEC please pump more. China offers to buy more US goods. Mexico imposes tariffs on US good. ISM strong. More job openings than jobs. Social Security and Medicare wobbly. Judge tells Puerto Rico to reveal death toll from hurricane. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-05-2018

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Financial Review

Quads

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-19-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow, S&P, Nasdaq and Russell all close at record highs. Passive investors continue to add money. Big money pros still act skittish. Earnings looking good for now. CBO scores repeal only and it is ugly. House tries a reset with the budget. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-19-2017

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Financial Review

Welcome Back

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-05-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Fed minutes show disagreement on timing. Factory orders slip. Home prices rise. Oil down. Volvo goes electric. Tesla must produce. Not the life O’Reilly. A glitch in tech. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-05-2017

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Financial Review

Cats and Dogs

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-25-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..S&P and Nasdaq hit record highs. Retail leads? Trade gap grows. OPEC extends cuts. GM cheats on diesel, too. Appeals court slams immigration ban. Trump and NATO like cats and dogs. Senate to repeal Obamacare in 2020. Nvidia’s charmed existence. Hurricane season. We’re number 5!   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-25-2017

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Financial Review

See What Sticks

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-01-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Nasdaq record. EPS v GDP. Sell in May, maybe. Spending package means government will stay open. Winter storm hits short wheat traders hard. ISM mgf slips. Construction spending dips. Personal income down, debt up. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-01-2017

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Financial Review

A High Point

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-09-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSNasdaq record close. Oil down. Productivity down but we don’t know why, or maybe we do. Honeywell in talks for JDA Software. AI unicorns. Earnings roundup. Shooting stars. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-09-2016

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Financial Review

2015 Financial Review

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-31-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-31-2015 DOW – 178 = 17,425 SPX – 19 = 2043 NAS – 58 = 5007 10 Y – .03 = 2.27% OIL + .45 = 37.05 GOLD + .40 = 1060.20 SILV – .03 = 13.81   This is the final day of the year, and so it is appropriate to review where the markets stand; generally, it was ugly. We’ll take a look at stocks, bonds, the dollar and commodities. It was not an easy year for investors. Nearly 70% of investors lost money this year, according to Openfolio, an app that allows people to track their investment performance and compare their portfolio with other users. Warren Buffett is seeing his worst year since 2008, with Berkshire Hathaway shares down more than 11% year to date. Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital sent a letter to investors in December that said 2015 may be the fund’s worst year since it was founded in 2004. 2008 was a terrible year in the stock market, but bonds were up 22%. But this year, not one major asset class had a good year.   If you went to sleep on December 31, 2014 and you just woke up today, you might think nothing happened in 2015. The S&P 500 index started the year at 2058, and closed at 2043, for a loss of 15 points or about 0.7%; with dividends …

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Financial Review

Times Change

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-30-2015   DOW + 235 = 16,284 SPX + 35 = 1920 NAS + 102 = 4620 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.06% OIL – .14 = 45.09 GOLD – 12.40 = 1116.30 SILV – .13 = 14.62   This is the last trading day of the third quarter. China’s main stock market posted its worst quarter since 2008 and its smaller Shenzhen index, posted its worst quarter in at least two decades. Markets in Singapore and Indonesia are set to post their worst quarters since the financial crisis. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index fell 19.1% from the beginning of the quarter. The Nikkei closed out its worst quarter since 2010 and the ASX its worst since 2011.   European stocks moved higher today, but not enough to recover from the worst quarter in 4 years. The Stoxx Europe 600 index is down about 9.5% for the quarter. Germany’s DAX index down 12% for the quarter. France’s CAC index posted a quarterly loss of 7.3%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 down 7.7%. The Eurozone is back in deflation. Consumer prices slipped 0.1% year-over-year in September.   The major U.S. averages had a rough third quarter. Concerns about spillover from slowdown in China and the timing of a Federal Reserve rate hike sent markets into correction territory, or more than 10 percent below their 52-week highs, in late August. …

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Financial Review

Spend Your Time Wisely

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 23 = 17,619 SPX + 5 = 2063 NAS + 28 = 4986 10 YR YLD un = 2.33% OIL + 1.14 = 59.47 GOLD – 7.50 = 1173.60 SILV – .09 = 15.77   Today marks the end of the second quarter; we are halfway through the year. The stock market has been trading in an extremely tight range. After a weak January and a rebound in February, the major indices have moved sideways for 4 months. The Dow Industrials are down 204 points for the first half; the Nasdaq Composite is up 250 points for the first six months; the S&P 500 gained 5 points year to date. The S&P 500 is in the tightest trading range for the first half of a year in more than 2 decades. At some point it will break up or break down; as it is 2015 marks the worst first half of a year for the S&P 500 since 2010.   For the month of June, the Dow fell 2.2 percent, the S&P 500 fell 2.1 percent and the Nasdaq fell 1.6 percent. For the second quarter, the Dow fell 0.9 percent, the S&P 500 fell 0.2 percent. For the Dow and the S&P, that snaps a string of 9 consecutive quarters of gains. The Nasdaq rose 1.8 percent in its tenth straight quarterly advance. During the quarter, the Nasdaq hit its first records since …

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Financial Review

Live Long and Prosper

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-27-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 81 = 18,132 SPX – 6 = 2104 NAS – 24 = 4963 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.00% OIL + 1.03 = 49.20 GOLD + 4.50 = 1214.70 SILV + .04 = 16.67   We are wrapping up the first 2 months of trading. January was a down month for stocks, but February turned positive, with record high closes posted for the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000. The Nasdaq went almost entirely green for the month, closing in on 5000, and actually setting a new monthly closing high, taking out the March 2000 monthly close of 4572.   For the month, the Dow Industrial Average gained 5.6%, the S&P 500 gained 5.5% and the Nasdaq added 7.1%, and the Russell 2000 added 5.8%. Year to date, , Dow Jones Industrial Average +1.7% YTD, S&P 500 +2.2% YTD, Nasdaq Composite +4.8% YTD,  and the Russell 2000 +2.4% YTD,   Junk bonds are poised to deliver gains of 2.3% for February, the best monthly result since 2013, while investment-grade debt has registered losses. Investors are also returning to the equity markets, with the MSCI All-Country World Index touching a record Thursday after two losing months. Markets in Germany, the United Kingdom and Sweden hit all-time highs. Japan, the poster child of deflation, saw its stock index reach its highest point in 15 years. This …

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Financial Review

Third World Stuff

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-15-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 173 = 16,141 SPX – 15 = 1862 NAS – 11 = 4215 10 YR YLD – .11 = 2.09% OIL – .13 = 81.71 GOLD + 8.90 = 1242.10 SILV + .05 = 17.55 Go back a mere 18 trading sessions and the market was at all-time highs. The Dow hit an intraday high of 17,350 and a closing high of 17,279, on September 19th; that was 18 trading sessions in the past. For the Nasdaq composite we have seen a 10% correction from recent highs. That means this drop happened fast, and it also means the bear may have more room to run; this move is not mature in terms of duration or magnitude. The major indices have dropped under the 200 day moving average; we were waiting for confirmation; we got it. The S&P looked to bounce off a different trendline. If you draw a straight line across the S&P lows beginning with the lows from 2011, which is where we saw support and a bounce today, at the 1820 level; it is also very close to the support levels from April at about 1815, which we talked about on Monday. That is an intermediate level of support, but it held today, and you have to respect the line, unless or until it breaks down. Once we hit certain levels, people start to feel the pain and …

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Financial Review

Theory and Instinct; Nobody Knows

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-19-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSOver the weekend, the geopolitical hotspots did not explode. Kurdish forces made progress against ISIS militants in Iraq; Ukrainian forces made progress against pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.

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Uncategorized

Friday, January 31, 2014 – January Out

January Out by Sinclair Noe DOW – 149 = 15,698SPX – 11 = 1782NAS- 19 = 410310 YR YLD  – .03 = 2.67%OIL – .76 = 97.47GOLD + 2.80 = 1246.90SILV + .03 = 19.27 The Dow started the year and the month at 16,572 (-926). The S&P 500 started the month at 1845 (-63). The Nasdaq Comp, for the month, went from 4160 (– 57). For the week, the Dow fell 1.1 percent, the S&P 500 slipped 0.4 percent and the Nasdaq dropped 0.6 percent. In January, the Dow slumped 5.3 percent, the S&P 500 lost 3.6 percent and the Nasdaq fell 1.7 percent. January marked the worst month for the Dow and the S&P 500 since May 2012, and the worst for the Nasdaq since October of that year. Yield on the 10 year Treasury note dropped from 2.99% to (- 32bp). And this is a little telling, the Vix, the volatility index went from 14.32 to 18.22    (-3.9) The Vix might be indicating that the market is not sufficiently scared of the emerging market contagion; certainly the Vix is higher than the start of the month, but remember that December saw record highs for the major indices, and a really scary Vix reading would be around $49, for those of you who remember the beginning of 2009. In other words, there are a whole bunch of people who haven’t figured out that we’re in a downturn in the markets. So far the US markets are just experiencing …

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Uncategorized

Tuesday, November 26, 2013 – The Best Question

The Best Question by Sinclair Noe DOW + 0.26 = 16,072SPX + 0.27 = 1802NAS + 23 = 401710 YR YLD – .02 = 2.71%OIL – .60 = 93.49GOLD – 9.60 = 1243.00SILV – .39 = 19.92 Today we celebrate the Nasdaq. Yes, the Dow is at record highs, again, but the milk and cookies thing is getting old, kind of sickly sweet. Some might argue that you can never have too many cookies; that any day with milk and cookies is a good day. It’s hard to dispute this argument. Still, it bears notice that the Nasdaq has closed above 4,000 for the first time in 13 years. The Nasdaq is up about 33% year to date, and counting. So, today we celebrate with chips and salsa. If you’re thinking the Nasdaq has had quite a run and it’s starting to feel like 1999, you could be forgiven, but when you put it in perspective it’s not quite the same. P/E ratios are around 19, compared with 29 just before the millennium. Price to book is now 2.6 compared to 5.1 back then. Basically, back in 1999, the Nasdaq was extremely overvalued. You can argue that it’s overvalued today, but it isn’t nearly to the old extremes. Two economic reports on the housing market today. Permits for future home construction hit a near 5-½ year-high in October and prices for single-family homes showed big gains in September, suggesting a run-up in mortgage interest rates has not derailed the housing …

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Uncategorized

Friday, August 23, 2013 – QE Giveth and QE Taketh

QE Giveth and QE Taketh by Sinclair Noe DOW + 46 = 15,010SPX + 6 = 1663NAS + 19 = 365710 YR YLD – .08 = 2.82%OIL + 1.39 = 106.42GOLD + 21.70 = 1398.80SILV + .90 = 24.18 Yesterday, the Nasdaq crashed for about 3 hours; trading was halted; we still don’t know why. It now has a snappy name, the Flash Freeze. It happened after shares of Apple got stuck at $498, then everything froze. In time we’ll hear a good story about why it happened. My best guess for now is that it has to do with high frequency traders; the algo traders have a tendency to clog the trading pipes with all their bids, offers, and canceled orders as they try to scalp and front run trades. The market exchanges claim the high frequency traders provide liquidity, but I didn’t see any liquidity for about 3 hours yesterday; zip, nada. The markets had a pleasant and quiet day today, following a couple of weeks of fretting about Fed taper. America has created a whopping entitlement for the biggest Wall Street banks and their top executives, who, unlike most of the rest of us, are no longer allowed to fail. They can borrow from the Fed at almost no cost, then lend out the money at 3 percent to 6 percent or 30 percent; or they can take the money and gamble in markets they have rigged: derivatives, interest rates, energy, aluminum. It’s all rigged; the big …

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Thursday, August 22, 2013 – Nasdaq Freezes, Goldman Expresses Interest

Nasdaq Freezes, Goldman Expresses Interest by Sinclair Noe DOW + 66 = 14,963SPX + 14 = 1656NAS + 38 = 363810 YR YLD + .07 = 105.10OIL + .04 = 2.90%GOLD + 9.30 = 1377.10SILV + .30 = 23.29 A few weeks ago, I told you that August has a tendency to be a volatile month in the markets. Volatility can be positive or negative. So far it’s been rough sledding. And even when the markets have an up day, it was a mess, a big frozen mess. The Nasdaq shut down for about 3 hours today; trading was halted. More on that in a moment. The volatility has been largely tied to the Federal Reserve and the idea that they will taper off the $85 billion a month securities purchases known as QE. Probably. The best bet now is that they will start to trim purchases by $15 billion a month in September, and by the middle of 2014, they will try to stop the QE purchases. Once, we thought it would be tied to the unemployment rate or the inflation rate, but now that’s just a technicality. Of course, the Fed might not actually stick to this course, but that’s the betting for now. Nasdaq said trading was halted in shares it lists because of problems at its Securities Information Processor, the feed that disseminates quotes and prices. So they stopped all transactions. Boom, a little after Noon Eastern. Buying and selling in some of the most heavily …

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Uncategorized

Tuesday, May 22, 2012 – Bank Scum – by Sinclair Noe

DOW – 1 = 12,502 SPX +0.64 = 1316NAS – 8 = 283910 YR YLD +.06 = 1.79%OIL – .92 = 91.65GOLD – 24.10 = 1569.30SILV – .27 = 28.30PLAT – 23.00 = 1451.00 Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are just pure scum. No wait, I shouldn’t say that; it’s much too kind; they are lying, stinking, thieving, dangerous scum. Maybe you heard about a little company called Facebook; it went public last Friday. Today, Reuters is reporting Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs all cut their earning forecasts for Facebook in the middle of the IPO roadshow. You didn’t hear about that? No, you did not hear about that because the big banksters didn’t tell you. Why didn’t they tell you? Because they thought it would be much better to screw the public and try to make a quick buck on insider information, which they are required by law to report. Instead, the banksters passed the information only to a handful of big investor clients. This is a problem because earnings forecasts are material information, especially when they are prepared by analysts who have special access to company information and company management. Everybody who invested in Facebook would consider this material information when making an informed decision. The handful of big investors that did receive the information about reduced revenue forecasts were reportedly shocked. The change in Morgan Stanley’s estimates came on the heels of Facebook’s filing of an amended prospectus with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), in …

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