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http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-11-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Record highs for Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell. Producer prices fall in Dec. DACA deal dead. Walmart breaks the bank to $11 an hour plus bonus, closes 63 Sam’s Clubs. South Korea cracks down on cryptocurrency. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-11-2018

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Financial Review

Thursday, May 22, 2014 – A Heckuva Business Model

A Heckuva Business Model by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 10 = 16,543 SPX + 4 = 1892 NAS + 22 = 4154 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.55% OIL – .31 = 103.76 GOLD + 1.80 = 1294.70 SILV + .10 = 19.59   Yesterday we told you Russia and China had signed a 30 year, $400 billion dollar deal for Russia to deliver natural gas to China. Today, both countries vetoed a United Nations Security Council Resolution seeking to refer Syria to the International Criminal Court for possible war crimes. In the short-term, the Russia-China gas deal won’t have a big impact. The deal will not be in place until 2018 and even then will only see Russia selling a fraction of its gas exports to China every year, exports to the EU could still well be two to four times the size.   The economic links between Russia and Europe will continue to be significant and they will continue to be reliant on each other when it comes to energy; the former to sell the latter to buy, but this link gives an advantage to Russia, especially when the weather turns cold. At least symbolically the deal highlights Russia’s desire to move away from links with Europe. Combine this with Europe’s desire to increase energy security and the relations between the two sides could become increasingly cold and distant. Although, some countries due to geographical proximity, such as Bulgaria or Hungary; or due to long standing …

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Thursday, March 06, 2014 – Energy as Arsenal

Energy as Arsenal by Sinclair Noe DOW + 61 = 16,421SPX + 3 = 1877NAS – 5 = 435210 YR YLD + 4 = 2.74%OIL + .45 = 101.90GOLD + 13.60 = 1351.40SILV + .28 = 21.54 The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed at another all-time high. The number of people who filed for unemployment benefits last week fell more than expected. That’s a sign fewer workers are being laid off. Tomorrow we have the monthly jobs report and we’ll see. Does a string of weak economic data in recent months represent a genuine slowdown in US economic growth, or is it just weather-related noise? The February jobs report might not provide much clarity because the reference week for the household survey coincided with a mid-February storm that dumped ice and snow (again) on much of the eastern US. Federal funding for extended unemployment benefits expired at the end of December, so we’ll be watching the jobs data to see what happens to people who have been out of work for more than six months. Of course, the jobs number is hugely important because it supposedly plays into Federal Reserve monetary policy. Fed officials have signaled they’re on track to trim the central bank’s bond-buying program in $10 billion increments this year. The jobs report probably would need to very ugly to change their minds. Of course, the past two months of jobs numbers have been ugly but that was dismissed as weather related. Maybe the February report will …

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Monday, March 03, 2013 – Carry On

Carry Onby Sinclair Noe DOW – 153 = 16,168SPX – 13 = 1845NAS – 30 = 427710 YR YLD – .05 = 2.60%OIL + 2.20 = 104.79GOLD + 21.70 = 1351.30SILV + .18 = 21.51 Manufacturing expanded at a faster pace than projected in February. The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index rose to 53.2 from 51.3 in January. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing activity. Consumer spending in the US climbed more than forecast in January, reflecting the biggest increase in services in over 12 years. Household purchases rose 0.4%, after a 0.1% gain the prior month. Disposable income, or the money left over after taxes, rose 0.3% after adjusting for inflation. It dropped 0.2% in the prior month and was up 2.8% from January 2013. The saving rate was 4.3% in January, unchanged from the prior month. Wages and salaries increased 0.2% after dropping 0.1% in December. The big economic report this week will be the monthly jobs report on Friday. Faster than you can say “the Russians are coming”, they invaded Ukraine. Moscow now has operational control of the Crimean Peninsula, with about 6,000 airborne and ground troops. Russia has military bases on the Red Sea, but the troops have gone off base. The Russians have just taken over without any real fighting; indeed, many Crimeans are sympathetic to Russia. Ukraine has a large Russian ethnic minority, which it inherited mainly as the result of Soviet policies, including a re-drawing of the inner map …

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Wednesday, February 12, 2014 – Which Way the Wind Blows

Which Way the Wind Blows by Sinclair Noe DOW – 30 = 15,963SPX – 0.49 = 1819NAS + 10 = 420110 YR YLD + .04 = 2.76%OIL + .33 = 100.27GOLD + .90 = 1292.80SILV unch = 20.34 After a four day rally, the stock market came back to a dose of reality. Just a reminder that the Fed has started gradually reducing the amount of money it pumps into the economy. The move could hardly have been a surprise, because the Fed announced as early as last spring that it would begin doing so by the end of 2013. Now, it’s happening, and likely won’t change, and Janet Yellen said the rest of the world needs to adjust because the Fed has set its course. That has made for shaky markets around the world. Remember that about a month ago, we started worrying about emerging markets. China said their economy was slowing down; that in turn will hurt the exports of commodity producers, weakening their trade balances. The big question now is how much further growth in China will slow. A serious cutback in China’s demand would not just harm emerging markets’ shipments directly to China, it would also cause further erosion in the already falling world prices for emerging markets’ coal, copper, palm oil and other commodities. China is also dealing with a shadow banking system ripe with potential defaults. But that isn’t the only problem in the world. Many of those emerging markets also have unique economic …

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Thursday, January 30, 2014 – Where Water Flows

Where Water Flowsby Sinclair Noe DOW + 109 = 15,848SPX + 19 = 1794NAS + 71 = 412310 YR YLD + .02 = 2.69%OIL + .59 = 97.95GOLD – 24.60 = 1244.10SILV – .57 = 19.24 Gross domestic product grew at a 3.2% pace in the fourth quarter of 2013, which was down from the 4.1% growth in the third quarter. Consumer spending rose at a 3.3 percent rate, the strongest since the fourth quarter of 2010. Inventories increased $127 billion, the most since the first quarter of 1998. That added 0.42 percentage point to GDP growth. Inventories had risen $115 billion in the third quarter, contributing 1.67 percentage points to output. Excluding inventories, the economy grew at a 2.8% rate, up from the third-quarter’s 2.5% rate. We might reasonably expect inventories to decline again in the first quarter. Consumption in the fourth quarter came at the expense of saving. The saving rate slowed to 4.3% in the fourth quarter from 4.9 % in the prior period. Income at the disposal of households after accounting for inflation rose at a tepid 0.8% rate. That was a sharp slowdown from the 3.0% pace in the third quarter. Income is one of the biggest constraints on growth. Exports rose at their fastest pace in three years. Exports combined with declining petroleum imports helped narrow the trade deficit. Business spending on equipment accelerated at a 6.9% rate in the fourth quarter after rising at only a 0.2% pace in the prior three months, …

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Wednesday, December 5, 2012 – I Have Copyrighted the Term “Fiscal Cliff”. Pay Up!

I Have Copyrighted the Term “Fiscal Cliff”. Pay Up! by Sinclair Noe DOW + 82 = 13,034SPX + 2 = 1409NAS – 22 = 297310 YR YLD – .02 = 1.59%OIL – .62 = 87.88GOLD – 2.50 = 1695.30 SILV unch = 33.01 Let’s take a look at the economic news. The ISM services index moved up to 54.7% in November from 54.2% in October; indicating expansion in the services side of the economy. Earlier this week, the ISM said its manufacturing index fell back into negative territory for the fourth time in six months. Third quarter productivity rose a revised 2.9%, the fastest rate in two years, compared to a first reading of 1.9%. Workers produced goods and services more efficiently than the first estimate suggested. This is an important number because it gives the Federal Reserve some wiggle room to continue to pump money into the Mortgage backed securities market, without the fear of inflation. It also means businesses are squeezing more output out of each worker, and so it reflects a reluctance to hire or raise wages. Payroll processor ADP says employers added 118,000 jobs last month. That’s below October’s total of 157,000, which was revised lower; mostly because Hurricane Sandy shut down factories, retail stores, and other companies. The ADP report might provide clues about the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report due on Friday. That report is expected to show the unemployment rate climbing to 8% from 7.9%. There is little sign yet that business concerns over potential …

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Friday, June 15, 2012 – Greeks Look for a Bargain – by Sinclair Noe

DOW  +115 = 12,767SPX + 13 = 1342NAS + 36 = 287210 YR YLD -.02 = 1.59%OIL – 1.11 = 82.80GOLD + 3.40 = 1627.70SILV + .10 = 28.84PLAT – 8.00 = 1490.00Sunday there will be an election in Greece. I don’t know how the election will turn out. I can’t find any consensus opinion. There may not be a consensus, even if there is a definitive winner. It appears the extremes are gaining in Europe because centrist parties are offering voters no meaningful choices. Pasok and ND (New Democracy) and Syriza. New Democracy is the old-guard conservative party; Pasok is the old-guard socialist party; Syriza is the new-upstart far left party. Golden Dawn is the new-upstart far right/neo-nazi party but they went to far during a televised debate last week when a spokesman started beating a woman on camera – that went too far and destroyed that fringe element. For Greeks that want to vote against the status quo they have no alternative but to vote for extremists. Right now it looks like New Democracy and Syriza will get the most votes, but not a majority, so they will have to pull together a coalition government, which they failed to do one month ago. But again, the election could swing in any number of unusual ways. Some common themes from Greek voters is that they feel they are being blackmailed into voting for parties that drove the economy into a ditch and blindly imposed austerity measures. The Euro-zone support for …

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