Financial Review

Black Hole Sun

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-18-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS…..The panic passes. Washington settles in for a long slog. Wall Street reassess risk. Brazil bribery probe. Walmart shows retailers still alive. Alibaba buy back. Happy B’day FB. Net neutrality dies.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-18-2017

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Financial Review

Devil in the Detail

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-26-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS…..Tax cut plan unveiled, or at least a rough draft. House takes another stab at repeal and replace of Obamacare. Possible order to withdraw from Nafta. FCC plans to kill the open internet. 100 senators briefed on North Korea. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-26-2017

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Financial Review

Big Stuff

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-24-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS  …..Macron v. Le Pen; Ce n’est pas terminé jusqu’à la fin. Big tax reform stuff on Wednesday. Big North Korea stuff tomorrow. Big net neutrality stuff Wednesday. Big government shutdown possible on Friday. Small 1Q GDP on Friday. Fewer bank branches in your future. Albertsons hunting Whole Foods. iHeart failure. Steve Ballmer has built a really big database. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-24-2017

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Financial Review

1Q in the Can

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-31-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS…..First quarter wrap-up. PCE inflation on the rise – tops Fed target. Consumer spending inches up, but we lost spending power due to inflation. Consumer sentiment very strong. Telecoms bow to consumers over privacy, but net neutrality on the horizon. Airbus and Boeing unveil new planes. SpaceX reuses its rocket. Highways crumble in Atlanta. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 03-31-2017

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Financial Review

What Are the Odds?

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-14-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS  German 10 year bonds go negative. Brits say they want to leave. Investors go to cash. Shoppers shop. FOMC conclave. Net neutrality survives. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-14-2016

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Financial Review

Understanding Global Banking

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-11-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 38 = 18,039 SPX + 3 = 2130 NAS + 5 = 5082 10 YR YLD – .10 = 2.38% OIL – .87 = 60.56 GOLD – 3.60 = 1183.00 SILV + .02 = 16.13     Retail sales rose 1.2% in May on a seasonally adjusted basis.  Auto dealers and gasoline stations posted the strongest sales, but most major retail segments saw healthy gains. What’s more, sales in April and March were stronger than initially reported. Sales at auto dealers rose 2%; the auto sector generates about one-fifth of all retail spending. Sales were up 3.7% at gasoline stations as the price of fuel crept higher. Even if autos and gasoline are excluded, retail sales rose a healthy 0.7%.   Separately, the Federal Reserve reports household debt grew just 2.2% in the first quarter, as a 0.3% fall in mortgage debt offset a 5.6% rise in auto loans, student loans and credit cards. At the same time, real estate value increased by $411 billion. The net effect is that household net worth jumped $1.6 trillion. Meanwhile, corporate debt grew at a 7.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the first quarter as businesses pile on debt before a possible Fed rate increase.   The number of US workers who applied for unemployment benefits in the first week of June edged up by 2,000 to 279,000. Claims have been below 300,000 …

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Financial Review

Slow to Patch

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-15-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 75 = 18,112 SPX + 10 = 2106 NAS + 33 = 5011 10 YR YLD un = 1.90% OIL + 2.67 = 55.96 GOLD + 9.60 = 1202.50 SILV + .18 = 16.41   The Federal Reserve reports industrial production dropped 0.6% in March. The biggest drop since August 2012. For the first quarter, industrial production was down at 1% annual rate, the first quarterly decline since the end of the recession.   The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of home builder confidence increased to 56 in April from 52 in March. Readings over 50 indicate that more builders see sales conditions as good rather than poor. All three components of the index improved in the month: sales expectations, buyer traffic, and the component gauging current sales conditions all moved higher.   China grew at its slowest pace last quarter since the global financial crisis in 2009; GDP expanded 7% in the three months to March from the year ago period, down from 7.3% the prior quarter. Retail sales and industrial output data broadly missed expectations, however, with the latter expanding at the slowest pace since 2008.   Japan overtook China as the top foreign holder of US government debt for the first time since the global financial crisis. Each country holds a little more than $1.22 trillion in US Treasuries, but Japan has about $7 …

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Financial Review

Thirst for Innovation

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 104 = 18,011 SPX – 12 = 2091 NAS – 16 = 4994 10 YR YLD – .03 = 1.88% OIL + .06 = 47.51 GOLD + 3.90 = 1194.20 SILV – .04 = 17.04   The Labor Department reports the consumer price index climbed by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% last month. Gasoline prices rebounded in February. Higher costs for food, housing and new cars also contributed to the increase. Still, there’s been zero overall inflation in the last 12 months, mainly because of the big drop in gas prices. If food and energy are excluded, so-called core consumer inflation has risen at a 1.7% rate over the past 12 months.   In February energy prices rose 1%. Gasoline price are still down almost 33% in the past year. Food prices moved up 0.2% last month, bringing the increase over the past 12 months to 3%. Shelter costs also rose 3% in the past year. The cost of medical care fell in February for the first time since 1975, although overall health-care costs were unchanged.   Now, the reason the CPI number is important is because the Federal Reserve last week shifted from being patient about raising interest rates to being data dependent about hiking rates, and the data they are focusing on is inflation and jobs. Although the Fed uses a different index as its preferred price …

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Financial Review

No Matter How Long the Winter

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-20-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 168 = 18,127 SPX + 18 = 2108 NAS + 34 = 5026 10 YR YLD – .04 = 1.93% OIL + 1.76 = 45.72 GOLD + 11.40 = 1183.40 SILV + .62 = 16.83   The Nasdaq Composite is back above 5,000. It couldn’t close above the old record high of 5048 from March 10, 2000, but it is close. Even with today’s advance it remains a long way from its intraday high of 5,132, reached the same day. For the week, the Dow gained 2.1 percent while the S&P 500 rose 2.7 percent, both snapping a three-week run of losses. The Nasdaq ended up 3.2 percent.   In London, the FTSE 100 Index hit a fresh record and climbed above 7,000 for the first time. The benchmark gauge of U.K. stocks climbed 0.9 percent to close at 7,022.51 in London, doubling since a low in 2009.  The index first surpassed its dotcom era record last month, having taken more than 15 years for it to regain all the losses from the burst of the tech bubble.   Today is a quadruple witch, and then some.  Index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures all expire Friday as the first quarter nears its end. Today also marks a rebalancing of the S&P 500 index, to reflect things like mergers, acquisitions, or other changes. About $15.9 billion of shares were …

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Financial Review

Patience For Now

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-13-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 145 = 17,749 SPX – 12 = 2053 NAS –  21 =  4871 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.11% OIL – 2.05 = 45.00 At one point today, the Dow was down 250, so it could have been worse. For the week, the Dow was down 0.6% and the S&P 500 fell 0.9%. The Nasdaq was down 1.1% for the week. Today is Friday the 13th. All I can say is pure coincidence. We looked at the market for 148 Friday the 13ths, going back to 1928, there is no particular trend. In the last week of January we saw oil prices drop to right around the $45 a barrel level, with intraday lows of $44.37, but the daily closing price hovering just a little above $45. And in February, prices popped up to touch $55.05; prices challenging $55 on 3 days, and could not break out. So, now we are back to challenging support at $45. And waiting to see if the trading range will break down.   The International Energy Agency says oil prices remain fragile due to unrelenting production by US shale-oil producers. There has been an expectation that oil producers would cut back production in response to lower oil prices, but the IEA  report shows oil production in the US has increased by 115,000 barrels, and now we’re running out of places to store the oil. …

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