Financial Review

Nobody Knows Normalization

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-12-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-12-2016   DOW + 313 = 15,973 SPX + 35 = 1864 NAS + 70 = 4337 10 Y + .10 = 1.75% OIL + 2.77 = 28.98 GOLD – 9.40 = 1238.00 The Nikkei Stock Average finished down 11% for the week, its biggest weekly percentage drop since October 2008. For the day, the index ended off 4.8% at 14,952, the lowest since October 2014. The Nikkei is down 21% year-to-date. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe held a meeting with his top financial diplomat today, as well as the BOJ’s governor, following a report that the “architect of Abenomics” called for a Group of 20-wide response to the recent market rout. Friday’s high-level gathering came as the country’s stock markets plunged again and the yen hit highs not seen since October 2014. Speculation is also rampant that Tokyo could conduct yen-selling intervention.     The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland Chinese companies trading in Hong Kong fell 2% Friday and was off 6.8% for the week. Trading was halted on the Kosdaq, the smaller cap, tech focused exchange in South Korea as the index dropped by more than 8%.     Here in the US, we’re not quite in bear territory for the major indices: the Nasdaq dropped 18% from last summer’s high; the S&P 500 dropped 15% from last year’s high.     And then …

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Financial Review

Sorry McFly

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 178 = 17,966 SPX – 15 = 2108 NAS – 37 = 5122 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.37% OIL – .74 = 60.27 GOLD – 3.00 = 1179.00 SILV + .04 = 15.98   The American economy shrank in the first quarter by a smaller amount than previously reported. Gross domestic product declined by 0.2% annual rate from January to March. Previously the Commerce Department had estimated a seasonally adjusted 0.7% drop. This is the third and final revision to first quarter GDP; so this final estimate, while still negative, isn’t as bad as we thought.  Household spending was revised up to 2.1% from 1.8%. Consumers spent more at restaurants and on transportation.  Private sector investment also rose a bit more, up 2.4% vs. a prior 0.7% estimate; and digging deeper, most of the move in private investment came from residential investment – up 6.5% in the final reading. Now this indicates signs of life in the housing market, but we still aren’t seeing enough in the way of business investment. Companies seem to have piles of cash and all they do is buy back their own stock.   Inflation as measured by the PCE price index fell at a 2% annual rate. The core rate that excludes food and energy was up 0.8% in the same span, well below the Federal Reserve’s preferred rate …

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Financial Review

Understanding Global Banking

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-11-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 38 = 18,039 SPX + 3 = 2130 NAS + 5 = 5082 10 YR YLD – .10 = 2.38% OIL – .87 = 60.56 GOLD – 3.60 = 1183.00 SILV + .02 = 16.13     Retail sales rose 1.2% in May on a seasonally adjusted basis.  Auto dealers and gasoline stations posted the strongest sales, but most major retail segments saw healthy gains. What’s more, sales in April and March were stronger than initially reported. Sales at auto dealers rose 2%; the auto sector generates about one-fifth of all retail spending. Sales were up 3.7% at gasoline stations as the price of fuel crept higher. Even if autos and gasoline are excluded, retail sales rose a healthy 0.7%.   Separately, the Federal Reserve reports household debt grew just 2.2% in the first quarter, as a 0.3% fall in mortgage debt offset a 5.6% rise in auto loans, student loans and credit cards. At the same time, real estate value increased by $411 billion. The net effect is that household net worth jumped $1.6 trillion. Meanwhile, corporate debt grew at a 7.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the first quarter as businesses pile on debt before a possible Fed rate increase.   The number of US workers who applied for unemployment benefits in the first week of June edged up by 2,000 to 279,000. Claims have been below …

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Financial Review

Patience For Now

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-13-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 145 = 17,749 SPX – 12 = 2053 NAS –  21 =  4871 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.11% OIL – 2.05 = 45.00 At one point today, the Dow was down 250, so it could have been worse. For the week, the Dow was down 0.6% and the S&P 500 fell 0.9%. The Nasdaq was down 1.1% for the week. Today is Friday the 13th. All I can say is pure coincidence. We looked at the market for 148 Friday the 13ths, going back to 1928, there is no particular trend. In the last week of January we saw oil prices drop to right around the $45 a barrel level, with intraday lows of $44.37, but the daily closing price hovering just a little above $45. And in February, prices popped up to touch $55.05; prices challenging $55 on 3 days, and could not break out. So, now we are back to challenging support at $45. And waiting to see if the trading range will break down.   The International Energy Agency says oil prices remain fragile due to unrelenting production by US shale-oil producers. There has been an expectation that oil producers would cut back production in response to lower oil prices, but the IEA  report shows oil production in the US has increased by 115,000 barrels, and now we’re running out of places to store the …

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Financial Review

Blue Light Special

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-19-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 44 = 17,985 SPX – 2 = 2097 NAS + 18 = 4924 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.11% OIL – .77 = 51.37 GOLD – 6.10 = 1208.20 SILV – .12 = 16.48 The S&P 500 is up 5.2 percent in February, rebounding from a January slump. If the index holds those gains it will be the best monthly performance since October 2011.   Crude-oil futures fell to the lowest level in a week, after data showed inventories have built up much faster than expected. According to a report from the American Petroleum Institute late yesterday, US crude stocks rose by 14.3 million barrels last week vs. expectations of a 3.2 million. The today the US Energy Information Administration released a report showing crude inventories rose 7.7 million barrels for the week ended Feb. 13; that was about double expectations, but far less than the API report. And prices bounced back.   The latest EIA data peg total commercial crude inventories at 425 million barrels, with the government referring to the total as “the highest level for this time of year in at least the last 80 years.” One possible reason for the rising inventories is that there has been a United Steelworkers strike at 11 refineries that account for 13% of US output capacity.  A slowdown in refining would lessen the demand for crude …

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