Financial Review

Bueller? Bueller?

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-09-2015 DOW + 33 = 17,084 SPX + 1 = 2014 NAS + 19 = 4830 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.10 OIL + .14 = 49.57 GOLD + 17.40 = 1157.40 SILV + .16 = 15.93   World shares were green across the board after details from the Fed’s minutes cast further doubt on the prospect of a rate rise this year. European stocks broke a one-month high for their best weekly gain since late January on renewed hopes central banks will keep monetary policy loose for longer. Overnight, Asian equities and currencies also moved higher following yesterday’s gains on Wall Street (the Dow ended above 17,000 for the first time since August, while the S&P 500 closed well past its 50-day MA of 1,995).   Oil prices traded above $50 a barrel this morning, with a gain of nearly 9% this week; for the biggest weekly gain in 6 years.   Investors are now positioning themselves for corporate earnings season, which picks up steam next week with most of the nation’s largest banks reporting their results, as well as big companies including; Intel, Netflix, UnitedHealth and GE. Earnings are expected to be down roughly 5.5 percent from a year ago, according to FactSet, mostly because of the drop in commodity prices. Now there is a game on Wall Street where analysts set the bar very low …

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Financial Review

Fed Should Avoid Knee Jerk Hikes

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-08-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 106 = 17,852 SPX – 15 = 2060 NAS – 40 = 4740 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.26% OIL – 2.80 = 63.04 GOLD + 11.10 = 1205.20 SILV + .09 = 16.48 No records today. Energy stocks pulled the market lower; 42 of the 43 energy stocks in the S&P 500 posted losses today. Falling oil prices have also hit exchange rates of energy producers, especially in emerging markets. Russia’s ruble continues to slide, and an index tracking 20 key exchange rates has fallen to levels last seen more than a decade ago, down 10.2 percent this year and headed for the biggest annual slide since 2008. While some developing nations may welcome a weaker currency because it makes their exports more competitive, for others the pace of decline is destabilizing their economies by fueling inflation and eroding investor confidence. While the International Monetary Fund expects developing economies to pick up next year, it still sees them falling short of their longer-term growth. The IMF predicts expansion of 4.95 percent across emerging markets in 2015, up from a forecast of 4.43 percent this year and compared with average growth of 6.44 percent over the past decade. Let’s start with a quick recap of Friday’s jobs report. The economy added 321,000 jobs in November, well above estimates, the highest monthly gain since January 2010 and …

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Financial Review

King Dollar and the Eurozone

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-10-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 115 = 16,544 SPX – 22 = 1906 NAS – 102 = 4276 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.30% OIL – .25 = 85.52 GOLD – .60 = 1224.00 SILV + .05 = 17.50 The 10 year German bund has a yield that is 141 basis points lower than the US 10 year Treasury note. The yield on German debt will get you 0.89%. Standard & Poor’s lowered France’s credit outlook today, and you can still get a 10 year French note with a yield of 1.25%. A 10 year note from Spain will only get you 2.06%. Is this because the US debt is riskier than the Spanish debt? No, just the opposite. The problem in the Eurozone is deflation, and it threatens to bring the economy to a grinding halt, and send the EU into a triple dip recession. The president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, gave no indication of any further monetary stimulus beyond what was announced this summer, suggesting in a speech in Washington that governments needed to do more on the fiscal side. Draghi said in effect that Eurozone countries that have enough money should spend it, a clear reference to Germany. His comments echoed remarks this week from Christine Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund. Today, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said her government was examining how to encourage investment, …

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Friday, October 11, 2013 – We Have Met the Enemy

We Have Met the Enemy by Sinclair Noe DOW + 111 = 15,237SPX + 10 = 1703NAS + 31 = 379110 YR YLD un = 2.68%OIL – 1.22 = 101.79GOLD – 13.20 = 1274.20SILV – .34 = 21.44 The Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the OPCW, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, the international chemical weapons watchdog helping to eliminate the Syrian army’s stockpiles of poison gas. Its inspectors have just begun working in the active war zone, and the Norwegian Nobel Committee said it hopes the award offers “strong support” to them as they face arduous and life-threatening tasks. Overall consumer confidence decreased from 77.5 in September to 75.2 in October, according to the Index of Consumer Sentiment published by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan. The economic expectations index in the survey also fell from 67.8 in September to 63.9 for October, reaching the lowest level so far this year as consumers reported less optimism about the course of the economy for the next 12 months. In what has become an almost daily occurrence, Thursday night brought another poll, this one from NBC and the Murdoch Street Journal, showing that Americans really don’t like the politicians. A recap: Only 24% of Americans had a favorable view of Republicans, the lowest figure in the poll’s multi-year history and four percentage points lower than last month. Another low: only 21% had a favorable view of the tea party. Obama’s standing was relatively stable, moving from 45% …

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Monday, October 15, 2012 – Coffee First Then the Prize

Coffee First Then the Prize -by Sinclair Noe DOW + 95 = 13,424SPX + 11 = 1440 NAS + 20 = 306410 YR YLD un = 1.66%OIL- .11 = 91.74GOLD – 16.90 = 1738.40SILV – .78 = 32.80 PLAT – 14.00 = 1646.00 Americans Alvin Roth and Lloyd Shapley were awarded the Nobel economics prize on Monday for research that helps explain the market processes at work when doctors are assigned to hospitals, students to schools and human organs for transplant to recipients. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences cited the two economists for “the theory of stable allocations and the practice of market design.” Roth, 60, is a professor at Harvard. Shapley, 89, is a professor emeritus at UCLA. “This year’s prize concerns a central economic problem: how to match different agents as well as possible,” the academy said. Shapley made early theoretical inroads into the subject, using game theory to analyze different matching methods in the 1950s and ’60s. He examined “pairwise matching”. Roth took it further by applying it to the market for US doctors in the ’90s. “Even though these two researchers worked independently of one another, the combination of Shapley’s basic theory and Roth’s empirical investigations, experiments and practical design has generated a flourishing field of research and improved the performance of many markets,” the academy said. While I think it’s safe to say most of us believe that capitalism is the best economic system, in part because of the ability to efficiently allocate resources, …

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Friday, October 12, 2012 – Peace Out

Peace Out by Sinclair Noe DOW + 2 = 13,328SPX – 4 = 1428NAS – 5 = 304410 YR YLD -.01 = 1.66%OIL – .43 = 91.64GOLD – 12.90 = 1755.30SILV – .52 = 33.58PLAT – 23.00 = 1660.00 Two down, two to go; debates that is. So far, it has been great entertainment; and we all get to play critic; too polite, too disrespectful, too vague, too mendacious, big flag pin, little flag pin, too much style and not enough substance. In addition to a dearth of veracity, there were other glaring omissions, such as details, specifics, and of course, the Federal Reserve. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. Maybe the marching orders came from Jamie Dimon, speaking before the CFR the other day, Dimon discounted all this QE stuff. Dimon says QE1, 2, and 3 added together are only about $3 trillion dollars,… so far. Now that might sound like a significant sum to a bumpkin like me, but Dimon puts it in perspective; it is just a small part of the total financial assets of America, $80 trillion dollars. I didn’t see much in the itemized columns about that $80 trillion but it seems that much of it is securitized debt, backstopped by the Federal Reserve, and without the Fed “Put”, that $80 trillion in financial assets might just be so much paper; in other words, it remains susceptible to massive deleveraging. Profit for JPMorgan rose 34% to $5.71 billion, or $1.40 a share, …

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