Financial Review

Driving Down Third Avenue

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-28-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-28-2015 DOW – 23 = 17,528 SPX – 4 = 2056 NAS – 7 = 5040 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.23% OIL – 1.39 = 36.71 GOLD – 7.50 = 1069.80   Storms hit the South, Southwest and Midwest over the Christmas holiday weekend, unleashing floods and tornadoes that killed at least 43 people, flattened buildings and snarled transportation for millions during a busy travel time. The bad weather, or the threat of it, prompted the governors of Missouri and New Mexico to declare a state of emergency for their states. Flash floods killed at least 13 people in Missouri and Illinois. In Texas, at least 11 people were killed in the Dallas area over the weekend by tornadoes.   Oil prices were down again this morning, following a five-day rally that saw prices move to the highest level in three weeks. Iran repeated its goal of boosting exports after sanctions on the country are lifted. OPEC effectively abandoned output limits earlier this month. Today, Saudi Arabia announced it would boost production to defend its market share. The kingdom’s revenue from oil sales will make up about 70% of the budget next year, down from 73% this year and down from 89% last year. The Saudi 2016 budget is estimated to be based on a $37 a barrel for Brent oil prices; the first Saudi budget in more …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Watching and Waiting

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-13-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-13-2015   DOW – 49 = 17,081 SPX – 13 = 2003 NAS – 42 = 4796 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.05% OIL – .53 = 46.57 GOLD + 5.00 = 1169.90 SILV + .09 = 16.01   Anheuser-Busch InBev and SABMiller have agreed on terms for a takeover, with the world’s largest brewer set to pay $106 billion. The deal brings one out of every three beers sold worldwide under a single company. Under terms of the agreement, AB InBev would pay a $3 billion break-up fee to SABMiller should the transaction fail to clear regulatory hurdles or shareholders don’t approve of it. If the deal goes through, it would be the biggest acquisition of the year, and the largest in British history. SABMiller’s two largest shareholders, Altria Group and Bevco Ltd., can receive cash and stock for their stakes, which account for 41 percent of the company. They won’t be able to sell the shares for five years; a move that might have tax benefits.   Dell’s $67 billion buyout of EMC appears to be a win for nearly everyone involved – except EMC bondholders. Investors in EMC’s $5.5 billion of bonds are down about $338 million since news of the deal first became public last week. Why’s that? Dell’s plan to raise about $50 billion in debt for the acquisition will push existing bondholders down the …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Times Change

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-30-2015   DOW + 235 = 16,284 SPX + 35 = 1920 NAS + 102 = 4620 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.06% OIL – .14 = 45.09 GOLD – 12.40 = 1116.30 SILV – .13 = 14.62   This is the last trading day of the third quarter. China’s main stock market posted its worst quarter since 2008 and its smaller Shenzhen index, posted its worst quarter in at least two decades. Markets in Singapore and Indonesia are set to post their worst quarters since the financial crisis. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index fell 19.1% from the beginning of the quarter. The Nikkei closed out its worst quarter since 2010 and the ASX its worst since 2011.   European stocks moved higher today, but not enough to recover from the worst quarter in 4 years. The Stoxx Europe 600 index is down about 9.5% for the quarter. Germany’s DAX index down 12% for the quarter. France’s CAC index posted a quarterly loss of 7.3%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 down 7.7%. The Eurozone is back in deflation. Consumer prices slipped 0.1% year-over-year in September.   The major U.S. averages had a rough third quarter. Concerns about spillover from slowdown in China and the timing of a Federal Reserve rate hike sent markets into correction territory, or more than 10 percent below their 52-week highs, in late August. The …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Don’t Bet the Farm

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-16-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-16-2015 DOW + 140 = 16,739 SPX + 17 = 1995 NAS + 28 = 4889 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.30% OIL + 2.56 = 47.15 GOLD + 14.10 = 1120.20 SILV + .53 = 15.03   The cost of consumer goods fell in August for the first time since the beginning of the year, owing mostly to another sharp drop in gasoline prices as the summer driving season came to an end. The consumer price index, or the cost of living, fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.1% last month. That’s the first decline since January. Retail prices are up just 0.2% in the past year. Excluding food and energy, so-called core consumer prices rose 0.1% in August. Core prices have risen just 1.8% in the past 12 months, unchanged from in July.   Energy prices declined 2% in August. Most of the relief came in the form of lower prices at the pump. The cost of a regular gallon of gas fell about 8% last month. The price of fuel had risen three straight months before the decline in August. Still, energy prices are down 15% over the past year. Food prices rose again, however. They increased 0.2% in August, spurred by higher costs of eggs, fruits and vegetables. The cost of airline tickets dropped for the second straight month. The price of new cars and medical …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Confidently Waiting

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-14-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-14-2015   DOW – 62 = 16,370 SPX – 8 = 1953 NAS + 26 = 4822 10 YR YLD un = 2.18% OIL – .49 = 44.14 GOLD – .30 = 1109.40 SILV – .21 = 14.51   The story that will be leading markets throughout this week will be Thursday’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision. While market expectations of an increase in rates have fallen to 28 percent, down from over 50 percent a few weeks ago, economists insist the decision is still too close to call. The Fed has been saying they will hike interest rates; this may be one of the most telegraphed rate hikes in the Fed’s history, but circumstances keep changing. Since the last Fed meeting, oil prices have dropped by 15%, the dollar has strengthened, China has slowed, emerging markets have softened, and there is little to no sign of inflation despite a Fed target of 2%. By the way, we’ll get one more report on inflation Wednesday, with the release of the CPI, or consumer price index. So, there are many reasons why the Fed might not raise rates, but then if they do stand pat, they risk coming across as timid, or worried that the recovery is in trouble. If they hike rates they can give the impression they are confident, and confidence begets confidence. And so some clever folks think the …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

To Hike or Not To Hike

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-11-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-11-2015   DOW + 102 = 16,433 SPX + 8 = 1961 NAS + 26 = 4822 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.18% OIL – 1.12 = 44.80 GOLD – 3.70 – 1108.20 SILV – .13 = 14.68   The S&P 500 index was up 2.1% for the week, the best weekly gains since July.  The Dow was up 2.1% for the week, and the Nasdaq gained 3%.   The Senate has blocked an anti-Iran deal resolution. Senate Democrats successfully fended off an effort by the Republican-led Congress to dismantle the Iran deal with a disapproval resolution. While the Senate killing the resolution should mean that Congress’s bid to undo the deal is over, the House is fighting on with several bills aimed at expressing their disapproval. There’s even talk of filing lawsuits against the president.   Russia is calling for Washington to restart direct military-to-military cooperation to avert “unintended incidents” near Syria, at a time when U.S. officials say Moscow is building up forces to protect President Bashar al-Assad’s government. The U.S. is leading a campaign of air strikes against ISIS fighters in Syrian air space, and a greater Russian presence would raise the prospect of the Cold War superpower foes encountering each other on the battlefield. Both Moscow and Washington say their enemy is ISIS, but Russia supports the government of Assad, while the U.S. says …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Beverly, Hills That Is

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-01-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 12.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-01-2015 DOW – 469 = 16,058 SPX – 58 = 1913 NAS – 140 = 4636 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.17% OIL – 4.99 = 44.21 GOLD + 5.40 = 1140.80 SILV – .01 = 14.72   Another rough day for stocks across the world after twin surveys showed China’s manufacturing sector in the grip of its worst slump in several years. Asian stocks slumped on the first trading day of September, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 index chalking up a near 4 percent loss into correction territory. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped as much as 3.2 percent. The major US averages lost more than 6 percent each in August. The New York Stock Exchange invoked Rule 48 for the fourth time in two weeks.   If you want, you could blame it on the Fed, as good a culprit as any; they want to raise rates despite data. Or you could look to a global slowdown, as emerging markets struggle with lower and lower commodity prices. The High Frequency Traders certainly can be considered culpable, not for starting the fire but for splashing kerosene on the flames. But really, this is just what markets do. It’s not one thing that causes a market to tumble, it is the added weight of many things. And a market looking to sell is going to sell. The major averages ended in correction territory, down nearly 3 …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Better Than We Thought

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-27-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-27-2015 DOW + 369 = 16,654 SPX + 47 = 1987 NAS + 115 = 4812 10 YR YLD un = 2.17% OIL + 4.03 = 42.63 GOLD + .10 = 1126.50 SILV + .41 = 14.62   Yesterday Wall Street cracked a six-day losing streak with its best rally in nearly four years. Today, traders piled on; the two-day total, 978 points on the Dow industrials and the best two-day percentage gain since the crisis of 2008; which wipes out Monday’s losses, but still leaves the Dow down from one week ago. On the longer-term charts, Monday and Tuesday dropped below the lows of last October at 15,855, compared to Monday’s low of 15,370, which basically matched the lows from February 2014 at 15,340. On a long-term chart this now provides a range of support. With today’s gains, the S&P has recovered about half of the 11-percent meltdown it suffered over a six-day losing streak.   China’s key stock market index surged 5.3 percent earlier today, for its biggest gain in eight weeks, and the first gain in five sessions. China has been selling down its holdings of US Treasuries; the idea is to put a floor under the devaluation of the yuan; also probably to raise some capital for stimulus. So far, it isn’t an asset dump and there is absolutely no evidence it is the source of economic …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Shoddy Excuse for a Market

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-25-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-25-2015 DOW – 204 = 15,666 SPX – 25 = 1867 NAS – 19 = 4506 10 YR YLD + .14 = 2.13% OIL + 1.07 = 39.31 GOLD – 14.50 = 1141.40 SILV .10 = 14.80   Leading Asian markets fell again with the Shanghai Composite Index closing with a 7.6% loss and the Nikkei down 4.0%, while other key Asian markets closed with milder losses and Hong Kong ended up in positive territory. European markets were broadly higher, led by the first rise in the FTSE 100 in 11 sessions; the FTSE closed up over 3%; the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up 4.7 percent.   China’s stock market has dropped 22% in the past 4 sessions. Today, their central bank responded by cutting interest rates for one-year lending by 25 basis points to 4.6%, while the one-year deposit rate will fall a quarter of a percentage point to 1.75 percent. The required reserve ratio will be lowered by 50 basis points for all banks to cover funding gaps. China’s surprise yuan devaluation on Aug. 11 led to a tightening in liquidity as the PBOC subsequently bought its currency to stabilize the exchange rate and curb capital outflows. Roughly $4.5 trillion has evaporated from the Chinese markets since the middle of June – real, tangible wealth that no longer exists. Equities on mainland Chinese exchanges still trade at a …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Remain Buckled Up

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-24-2015 DOW – 588 = 15,871 SPX – 77 = 1893 NAS – 179 = 4526 10 YR YLD – .06 = 2.00% OIL – 2.30 = 38.06 GOLD – 5.50 = 1155.90 SILV – .56 = 14.89   The “Fasten Your Seatbelt” sign stayed on for the entire trip.   The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1089 points, or 6%, to 15,441 to start the session; that was the largest intraday drop in Dow history. The S&P 500 opened 100 points, or 4.9%, lower at 1,874. The Nasdaq Composite began the day down 360 points, or 7.6%, to 4,349. All three major US market indexes are now in correction territory, a 10% drop from a recent high. The latest round of selling comes on the heels of the worst week for the broad S&P 500 since 2011 that stripped more than $1 trillion in market value from US equities.   Before the market opened, Dow futures, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures triggered circuit breakers after falling at least 5%. The New York Stock Exchange operator NYSE Group invoked the rarely used “Rule 48,” which relaxes some trading rules in a bid to ensure a smooth opening to trading. The rule is instituted when trading before the start of the regular session is especially volatile. At the market open, a slew of single stocks and exchange-traded products triggered single-stock circuit …

READ MORE →