Financial Review

Dog Day Advance

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-17-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-17-2015 DOW + 67 = 17,545 SPX + 10 = 2102 NAS + 43 = 5091 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.15% OIL – .62 = 41.88 GOLD + 3.70 = 1118.40 SILV + .07 = 15.42   A reading of New York-area manufacturing conditions fell in August. The Empire State general business conditions index nose-dived to a reading of negative 14.9, from positive 3.9 in July, marking the worst level since April 2009.   The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index rose 1 point to 61, marking the highest level since Nov. 2005. Any reading above 50 indicates “good” conditions. NAHB says the report is consistent with their forecast for a gradual strengthening of the single-family housing sector in 2015.   Japan’s economy contracted in Q2 as overseas demand for Japanese goods slumped and households spent less, raising the possibility the government will act to support the country’s weak recovery. GDP shrank 1.6% on an annualized basis in the April-June quarter.   The yuan started the week on stable footing after the People’s Bank of China set the currency’s daily reference rate at 6.39 per dollar – in line with Friday’s close. The move signals Beijing is willing to cede more control to market forces, following last week’s record devaluation that saw the currency plunge 3.6%. Shanghai +0.7%. Shenzhen +1%.   Rounding up support for Greece’s fresh aid package, German Chancellor …

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Financial Review

Because it’s Friday

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-14-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-14-2015 DOW + 69 = 17,477 SPX + 8 = 2091 NAS + 14 = 5048 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.20% OIL – .10 = 42.13 GOLD + .10 = 1115.80 SILV – .18 = 15.34   For the week, the Dow rose 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 added 0.7 percent and the Nasdaq gained 0.1 percent.   Wholesale prices climbed at a slower pace in July, as energy prices dropped. The 0.2 percent increase in the producer-price index followed a 0.4 percent gain in June. Even with the recent increases, producer prices dropped 0.8 percent over the past 12 months. Wholesale prices excluding food and energy rose 0.3 percent for a second month, and those costs were up 0.6 percent from July 2014.   Industrial production climbed 0.6% in July; there were also upward revisions of 0.1% each in February, May and June. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.3 percentage point to 78%. The auto sector posted a 10.6% surge in production.   Looking to capitalize on rising demand, General Motors has increased its rate of production on larger trucks and SUVs, and added Saturday overtime shifts at a Texas plant. The move could see 48,000 to 60,000 additional vehicles for the 2016 model year. Make hay while the sun shines.   The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index edged slightly lower to a reading of 92.9 …

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Financial Review

Muppets in the Lobby

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-13-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-13-2015 DOW + 5 = 17,408 SPX – 2 = 2083 NAS – 10 = 5033 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.19% OIL – 1.07 = 42.23 GOLD – 10.80 = 1115.70 SILV – .12 = 15.52 So, stocks closed basically flat, but it was a roller coaster ride. The major indices started the day in negative territory, then recovered, only to slide into the close. This was a very busy day for economic reports.   Sales at US retailers were solid in July and stronger than previously estimated for May and June. Retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% last month, or by 0.4% excluding the auto sector. In the retail sales data in July, the gains were led by the auto sector, where sales jumped 1.4%. This was expected as the light vehicle selling rate rose to a seasonally adjusted 17.5 million units, the second best result since early 2006. And just a quick reminder that many auto sales are imports. But the sales gain in July was broad based. All sectors showed increases except electronics and general merchandise and department stores. In the past year, retail sales have risen 2.4%.   A side note here; it may seem strange that consumers are spending less on electronics, after all it seems like everybody has smartphones and other electro-gadgets; the reality is that we are buying this …

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Financial Review

Half True

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-10-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-10-2015 DOW + 241 = 17,615 SPX + 26 = 2104 NAS + 58 = 5101 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.24% OIL + .95 = 44.82 GOLD + 10.30 = 1105.10 SILV + .41 = 15.33   Berkshire Hathaway is buying Precision Castparts for $235 per share in cash in a deal worth about $37 billion. On Friday, Precision Castparts closed at $193.94, meaning Berkshire is paying a 21% premium to own the company. Berkshire originally began investing in Precision Castparts in 2012 and had already acquired a 3% stake before today’s announcement. Berkshire Hathaway posted disappointing earnings on Friday. Revenue for the second quarter came in at $54 billion. Precision Castparts makes parts for the aerospace industry, and also the energy industry; their major customers are Boeing, General Electric, and Airbus. This is a company with a large moat; there is a big barrier for new competition; GE isn’t going to outsource parts inside a jet engine for a couple of dollars savings. And there is a good chance that PCP can make some decent sized acquisitions to consolidate its industry, or what Buffett calls “bolt-on’ acquisitions.   When you consider some of the recent acquisitions by Warren Buffett, it becomes clear that Berkshire Hathaway is no longer a pseudo-hedge fund or quasi-mutual fund. It is a diversified conglomerate with interests in heavy industry, transportation, consumer …

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Financial Review

Preview

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-06-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-06-2015   DOW – 120 = 17,419 SPX – 16 = 2083 NAS – 83 = 5056 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.23% OIL – .31 = 44.84 GOLD + 5.00 = 1090.50 SILV + .06 = 14.76   Jobless claims rose by 3,000 to 270,000 in the week ended August 1. Firings are at historically low levels as employers hold on to more workers. More hiring would help convince Federal Reserve policy makers that the economy can withstand an increase in the benchmark interest rate this year. Claims have remained below the 300,000 level since March.   Outplacement consult Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports employers announced 105,696 layoffs last month. A year ago, U.S. companies announced plans to cut 46,887 jobs. The Army accounted for more than half of the total with 57,000 cuts expected over the next two years. The technology sector also contributed to July’s announced job reductions, with computer and electronics companies announcing 18,891 layoffs in July.   Tomorrow is the big monthly jobs report; and it probably represents the most important data the Fed will consider before the September 17 FOMC meeting. And the Fed will need to communicate any action beforehand to avoid disruption in the financial markets. We may be seeing a rate hike being priced in right now. The major averages came off session lows in the close. The …

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Financial Review

Blue Moon

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-31-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 56 = 17,689 SPX – 4 = 2103 NAS – 0.5 = 5128 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.20% OIL – 1.64 = 46.88 GOLD + 7.10 = 1096.40 SILV + .04 = 14.87   For the week the S&P 500 index gained 1.2%, while posting a 2% gain for the month of July. The Dow Industrials finished the week with a 0.7% gain which lifted the monthly gain to 0.4%. The Nasdaq was up 0.8% for the weeks and 2.9% for the month. For the month, the yield on the 10 year Treasury dropped 13 basis points. Spot gold dropped 6% for the month and silver was down 5%. The big decline came in oil prices: down 12.59 per barrel or 21% for the month. Consumer sentiment fell to a final July reading of 93.1 from a final June level of 96.1. For context, the consumer-sentiment gauge averaged 86.9 over the year leading up to the recession. After adjusting for changes in prices, just three in 10 surveyed thought their chances were better than 50 percent for real income gains over the next five years. Call it the voice of experience.   An index that measures the price of US labor slowed sharply in the second quarter, easing fears of inflation and signaling the labor market may not be as healthy as the low unemployment rate …

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Financial Review

Risk Off

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-27-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 127 = 17,440 SPX – 12 = 2067 NAS – 48 = 5039 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.23% OIL – .75 = 47.39 GOLD – 5.00 = 1095.50 SILV – .20 = 14.64   Chinese stocks fell sharply today. The Shanghai Composite fell 8.5% to record its largest one-day drop since June 2007, and the Shenzhen A-shares index lost 7% of its value. Weak manufacturing data revealed that profit at the country’s industrial firms dropped 0.3% in June from a year earlier, but the markets appear to be responding to government attempts to stabilize the country’s volatile stock markets; it seems like the Chinese government’s heavy-handed intervention measures are spooking investors. The fear is that the government will withdraw stimulus measures, and once the support disappears, the market won’t be able to stand on its own. In a way, the investors might be front-running the government; getting out before stimulus dries up.   Commodity prices resumed their downward spiral with the CRB commodities index hitting its lowest levels in six years and oil prices hitting a four-month low. Nine of the 10 major S&P 500 sectors were lower with the energy index leading the decliners. Stocks came off session lows in the close. The S&P 500 dipped below its 200-day moving average of 2,064 and closed a few points above it. The energy sector was the worst performer …

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Financial Review

Rockets and Rocks

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-23-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 119 = 17,731 SPX – 12 = 2102 NAS – 25 = 5146 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.27% OIL – .74 = 48.45 GOLD – 3.60 = 1091.40 SILV – .14 = 14.76   Greece can begin bailout talks. Greece’s parliament approved new reforms that pave the way for Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to begin negotiating his country’s third bailout. Parliament overwhelmingly approved the measures, but roughly a quarter of Tsipras’ Syriza party voted against the reforms. Now Greece and its creditors will begin working out the details of the latest bailout package, the third for Athens in the past five years. Nearly everyone agrees that Greek debt is unsustainably high, but that’s where the agreement ends. The IMF on July 14th issued a report calling for debt relief, a 180 turn from their earlier demands of austerity. The monetary fund recommended either a “very dramatic extension” of payment deadlines by up to 30 years or “deep upfront haircuts,” banker jargon for write-offs.   Lots of headlines flew out of Asia  overnight: Japan’s exports increased the most in five months in June, fueled by strengthening overseas demand, but imports remained subdued due to the effect of lower commodity prices. South Korea’s economy logged its weakest expansion in six years in Q2, recording just 0.3% growth from the previous quarter, as the country got battered by a MERS outbreak …

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Financial Review

Sheepish Algorithms

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-14-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 75 = 18,053 SPX + 9 = 2108 NAS + 33 = 5104 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.40% OIL + .84 = 53.04 GOLD – 2.70 = 1155.80 SILV – .13 = 15.48   The stock market posted its first 4-day winning streak since January. The S&P 500 last week fell as much as 4 percent from its all-time high, and has since recovered to trade within 1 percent of its record set in May. The S&P 500 and the Dow are up 3 percent over four sessions, while the Nasdaq Composite has added 4 percent. The United States and other world powers reached an agreement with Iran that calls for limits on Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting economic sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy, enabling the oil-rich nation to ramp up its energy exports, access international finance and open the doors to global investors. Full implementation of the agreement will likely take months and is contingent on the pace at which Iran meets its obligations. The deal will keep Iran from producing enough material for an atomic weapon for at least 10 years and impose provisions for inspections of Iranian facilities, including military sites.   Oil prices initially dropped when the Iran deal was announced, but then prices climbed higher. The oil markets were not surprised by the news announcement, and a deal …

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Financial Review

Tomorrow

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-04-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 170 = 17,905 SPX – 18 = 2095 NAS – 40 = 5059 10 YR YLD – .06 = 2.31% OIL – 1.66 = 57.98 GOLD – 8.60 = 1177.40 SILV – .40 = 16.18   The sun will come out tomorrow, beyond that we don’t have much certainty. Tomorrow could be a very interesting day in the markets. Greece is scheduled to make a debt payment to the IMF; that will not happen. OPEC meets tomorrow in Vienna; they are expected to leave the current production ceiling of 30 million barrels per day unchanged. And in the US, we have a Jobs Report Friday; the Labor Department is expected to report the economy added about 225,000 new jobs in May and the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 5.4%. Any one of these three events could result in major market moves. So buckle your seat belts.   This morning the Labor Department reported the number of people seeking unemployment benefits at the end of May remained near a 15-year low. Some 276,000 Americans filed initial jobless claims in the period running from May 24 to May 30, a week that included the Memorial Day holiday. That was down 8,000 from the prior week.   In addition to the headline numbers in the Jobs Report, we will be looking to see if wages are actually increasing; …

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