Financial Review

Generally Quite High

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-06-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 86 = 17,841 SPX – 9 = 2080 NAS – 19 = 4919 10 YR YLD + .07 = 2.24% OIL + .30 = 60.70 GOLD – 1.80 = 1192.20 SILV – .02 = 16.59   A worldwide sell-off in government bonds deepened today. Benchmark 10-year Bunds now trade at 0.53%, having hit a record low of 0.05% last month, when many expected them to turn negative. For German bund investors that represents a 12% loss over the past 2 weeks, or roughly 25 years of yield just went down the drain. In the past month, the yield on French 10 year debt is up 42 basis points, on 10-year Italian bonds the yield is up 62 basis points, Australia up 62 basis points, Hong Kong up 29 basis points. And here in the US, the 10 year Treasury yield has jumped from 1.9% a month ago, to 2.24% today. Around the world yields have been rising and bond prices have been falling.   Meanwhile, oil prices have been rising. Crude prices hit fresh 2015 highs; earlier in the session prices topped $62 a barrel before sliding back. This follow a 22% gain in April. A couple of reports show oil supplies dropping for the first time this year. U.S. oil inventories fell 3.9 million barrels last week, the first weekly decline since Dec. 26, according to data …

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Financial Review

Trending

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-28-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 72 = 18,110 SPX + 5 = 2114 NAS – 4 = 5055 10 YR YLD + .05 = 1.97% OIL – .06 = 56.93 GOLD + 10.10 =  1212.80 SILV + .21 = 16.71   House prices picked up in February, rising 0.5%, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index. After seasonal adjustments, home prices rose 0.9% in February, matching January’s gain. Compared with February 2014, prices for the 20-city index were up 5%, the fastest growth in half a year. Home prices in Phoenix gained 0.3% for the month and 2.9% for the 12 month period.   The Commerce Department reports home ownership slipped to a 25 year low of 63.8% in the first quarter. The home ownership rate peaked at 69.4% in 2004. Household formation increased by 1.5 million in the first quarter. More people, starting more households, but they aren’t buying homes. With many Americans still showing an aversion to homeownership, the gains in household formation largely are being driven by renters.   Consumer confidence declined in April to a four-month low as Americans’ views of the labor market and the outlook on the economy deteriorated. The Conference Board’s index dropped to 95.2 from a revised 101.4 reading in March. The report showed fewer respondents said jobs were plentiful in April and income expectations cooled, signaling consumers will remain guarded about spending. The …

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Financial Review

Slow to Patch

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-15-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 75 = 18,112 SPX + 10 = 2106 NAS + 33 = 5011 10 YR YLD un = 1.90% OIL + 2.67 = 55.96 GOLD + 9.60 = 1202.50 SILV + .18 = 16.41   The Federal Reserve reports industrial production dropped 0.6% in March. The biggest drop since August 2012. For the first quarter, industrial production was down at 1% annual rate, the first quarterly decline since the end of the recession.   The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of home builder confidence increased to 56 in April from 52 in March. Readings over 50 indicate that more builders see sales conditions as good rather than poor. All three components of the index improved in the month: sales expectations, buyer traffic, and the component gauging current sales conditions all moved higher.   China grew at its slowest pace last quarter since the global financial crisis in 2009; GDP expanded 7% in the three months to March from the year ago period, down from 7.3% the prior quarter. Retail sales and industrial output data broadly missed expectations, however, with the latter expanding at the slowest pace since 2008.   Japan overtook China as the top foreign holder of US government debt for the first time since the global financial crisis. Each country holds a little more than $1.22 trillion in US Treasuries, but Japan has about …

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Financial Review

Just Around the Corner

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-06-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 117 = 17,880 SPX + 13 = 2080 NAS + 30 = 4917 10 YR YLD un = 1.90% OIL + 2.84 = 51.98 GOLD + 12.00 = 1215.00 SILV + .20 = 17.07   The jobs report on Friday showed the economy added 126,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in March, the slowest monthly increase since December 2013, and the unemployment rate held at 5.5%. It was a bad jobs report; it raises concerns about a spring revival in the economy and should give the Fed cause to be more patient in initiating rate hikes.   New York Fed President William Dudley said the timing of interest rate hikes are uncertain and the Federal Reserve must watch that the surprising recent weakness in the economy does not foreshadow a more substantial slowdown, especially in the labor market. Dudley said: “It will be important to monitor developments to determine whether the softness in the March labor market report evident on Friday foreshadows a more substantial slowing in the labor market than I currently anticipate.” Still, Dudley said the weak economic data likely reflected “temporary factors to a significant degree.”   Maybe. There is still some question of whether the markets are pricing in higher rates. You can understand why markets might be slow to accept higher rates, like the kids in the back of the station wagon asking “are …

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Financial Review

Transitory, Not Terminal

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-23-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 11 = 18,116 SPX – 3 = 2104 NAS – 15 = 5010 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.91% OIL + .88 = 47.45 GOLD + 6.90 = 1190.30 SILV + .25 = 17.08   The Dow Jones Industrial Average is still above 18,000. The Nasdaq Composite is above 5,000. The Russell 2000 is near record highs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Composite, which dipped below 17,000 early in the year, took about a month to surge from 18,000 to 19,000 and is now rapidly approaching the 20,000 level; heights that haven’t been seen since 2000. Germany’s DAX recently traded above 12,000 for the first time and is up nearly 30 percent from the lows set earlier this year. London’s FTSE 100 is over 7,000, at its highest level in 15 years. Central bank monetary easing seems to be having the desired effect of pumping up financial assets around the globe, and even if the Fed is talking about hiking rates in the US, we haven’t seen a serious rate hike tantrum on Wall Street, yet.   U.S. home resales rebounded less than expected in February. The National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales rose 1.2% to an annual rate of 4.88 million units. Inventories are tight and also sales were hurt by harsh winter weather in the Northeast, where sales dropped 6.5%; sales were up …

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Financial Review

Not Patient But No Hurry

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-18-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 227 = 18,076 SPX + 25 = 2099 NAS + 45 = 4982 10 YR YLD – .11 = 1.95% OIL + 1.25 = 44.71 GOLD + 18.30 = 1166.90 SILV + .36 = 15.99 Today is Fed decision day. The Federal Reserve released a policy statement along with quarterly economic projections followed by a Janet Yellen news conference. In the statement, the Fed removed the phrase about being “patient” regarding an interest rate increase, which might seem like bad news for Wall Street; except, they came up with new language which sounds like they will be …, well, patient about increasing interest rates.   Here is the new language: The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.    So, now we are looking for “further improvement in the labor market” and reasonable confidence” about inflation.   If this sounds like so much word play, well it is; but the bottom line is that they did not make a firm commitment to raising rates in June, and it could be quite some time until we see interest rates rise. Wall Street liked it and went from a triple digit …

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Financial Review

How Low Did We Go

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 138 = 17,995 SPX +8 = 2079 NAS + 15 = 4942 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.20% OIL – 26 = 50.00 GOLD – 1.80 = 1167.90 SILV – .20 = 15.83   “How Low Can Stocks Go?” That was the headline in the Wall Street Journal 6 years ago. The Dow was still slogging through 4 straight weeks of losses to close at 6547. The S&P 500 was at a 12 year low of 676. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 1268.   Not many people called it at the time. A few did. John Bogle called it 2 weeks early. Barack Obama called it 5 days early. Mark Haines called it one day late. Of course, after all four tires go flat you might not make the prediction that there will be a fifth flat tire. Nobody was really confident about a bottom until about the end of the year. The current bull market is the fourth-longest on record; it’s also the fourth strongest. When will the bull market end? No idea. I could call the end of the bull market every day, and one day I would be right but that would be a waste off time for all of us.   For now, we have a nice bounce from the sell-off on Friday. Friday we learned the economy added 295,000 jobs last …

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Financial Review

The Lights Are On

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-03-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 85 = 18,203 SPX – 9 = 2107 NAS – 28 = 4979 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.12% OIL + 1.00 = 50.59 GOLD – 2.40 = 1204.50 SILV – .13 = 16.33   Just a few economic reports today.   Corelogic reports home prices jumped 1.1% in January to take the year-over-year gain to 5.7%. CoreLogic said 27 states and the District of Columbia are at or within 10% of their peak.   The Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Lending Index fell to 120.9 from an upwardly revised December reading of 133.5.  Small businesses cut back on borrowing. Cold weather may be part of the reason.   Car companies reported February sales figures. Ford Motor sales dropped 2%. Ford was projected to report a 5.8% increase in sales but deliveries of F-Series pickups, Escape sport-utility vehicles and Fusion family cars all declined last month. General Motors sales rose 4.2 percent but they still fell short of estimates as sales of light trucks rose and sedans fell. Toyota, Fiat Chrysler, Honda and Nissan all reported deliveries that increased less than analysts had estimated. Industry-wide, the annualized selling rate, adjusted for seasonal trends, rose to 16.2 million cars and light trucks, from a 15.4 million pace a year earlier.   Chief executives of large U.S. companies see the economy accelerating modestly in 2015. According the Business Roundtable’s first-quarter …

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Financial Review

A Question for the New AG

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-10-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 139 = 17,868 SPX + 21 = 2068 NAS + 61 = 4787 10 YR YLD + .04 = 1.99% OIL – 2.10 = 50.76 GOLD – 5.00 = 1234.70 SILV – .06 = 17.01 Small-business sentiment slipped in January on a decline in optimism over sales growth and business conditions, according to a gauge released Tuesday. The National Federation of Independent Business said its small-business optimism index fell 2.5 points to 97.9, with seven out of 10 components declining.   Good news if you are looking for a job. The Labor Department said job openings surged to 5.03 million in December, the highest level since January 2001, from 4.85 million in November. Hiring jumped to a seven-year high and the number of job seekers for every open position, a key measure of labor market slack, fell to 1.73 in December, the lowest since 2007. The bad news is that there are still about 9 million people looking for a job.   Wholesale inventories barely rose in December, up just 0.1%. Together with data last week showing a 0.3% fall in manufacturing inventories in December, today’s report suggests the boost to GDP growth from restocking in the fourth quarter was probably not as large as initially thought.   Halliburton is cutting as many as 6,500 jobs. The oil company, facing up to the reality of crude oil prices, …

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Financial Review

HSBC – Too Big To Jail

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:18 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 95 = 17,729 SPX – 8 = 2046 NAS – 18 = 4726 10 YR YLD + .02 = 1.95% OIL + .90 = 52.59 GOLD + 5.40 = 1239.70 SILV + .28 = 17.07 Let’s start with oil; OPEC lowered its estimate for non-OPEC supply growth this year by about 400,000 barrels a day, the biggest reduction since the forecast was introduced in August. The US led with a cut of 130,000 barrels a day while estimates for Colombia, Canada and Yemen were also trimmed. The group said it may boost global demand forecasts beyond this month’s slight increase amid rising U.S. gasoline use.   OPEC’s research department said: “The main factors for the lower growth prediction in 2015 are price expectations, a declining number of active rigs in North America, a decrease in drilling permits in the US and a reduction in the 2015 spending plans of international oil companies.”   The United Steelworkers strike continues with walkouts at two of BP’s refineries over the weekend. The strike now encompasses more than 5,000 workers at 11 refineries across the country, which account for about 13% of U.S. fuel-making capacity. Facility owners also hit by the strike include Shell, Tesoro, Marathon Petroleum and LyondellBasell.   Cheap gasoline prices have increased 13 cents in the past two weeks to $2.20 a gallon, nationwide average; but not everybody is buying …

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