Wednesday, December 12, 2012 – Life is Beautiful and Easy

Life is Beautiful and Easy by Sinclair Noe DOW – 2 = 13,245SPX +0.64 = 1428NAS – 8 = 301310 YR YLD +.05 = 1.70%OIL +.99 = 86.78GOLD + 1.20 = 1712.60SILV +. 45 = 33.55 And now, the DC Players present: The Grinch Who Stole Christmas, starring John Boehner. Speaking to reporters this morning, Boehner said: “We’re going to stay here right up until Christmas Eve, throughout the time and period before the New Year, because we want to make sure that we resolve this in an acceptable way for the American people.” Yesterday, we told you reporters in Washington were optimistic a deal could be reached; and we told you that story literally dripping with sarcasm, because we were fairly certain it was just idiot reporters projecting their own fantasy that they could spend the holidays with family and people posing as friends; it was a last gasp hope to shame inept and incompetent politicians to get a deal done. It didn’t work. Republicans and the White House appeared no closer to a deal, as both sides pressed each other to cede ground. Republicans want to extract spending cuts from the White House while the Obama administration is demanding that taxes go up for the wealthiest 2% of Americans. Wow, I just had a feeling of deja vu. It’s almost like I’ve heard this before. Washington has a way of diverting the nation’s attention on tactical games over partisan maneuvers that are symptoms of a few really big …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Monday, December 10, 2012 – The Fed After the Twist, Italy After Monti, China After 2030, Warming After Doha

The Fed After the Twist, Italy After Monti, China After 2030, Warming After Doha by Sinclair Noe DOW + 14 = 13169SPX +0.48 = 1418NAS + 8 = 298610YR YLD -.01 = 1.62%OIL -.25 = 85.68GOLD + 8.10 = 1713.60SILV + .16 = 33.37 Economic reports due this week are not likely to be market movers. Tomorrow we’ll see data on wholesale trade, plus the trade deficit; a report on how many new job opening exist. Later in the week, we’ll find out about retail sales. The big event this week is the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting Tuesday and Wednesday. The Fed will be looking at the unemployment numbers from Friday. The unemployment rate fell to 7.7% from 7.9%, but that was because more people dropped out of the labor force. Usually that’s not a good sign because it means jobs are harder to find. Ultimately the Fed wants to see the jobless rate fall to 6% or less, the same levels that prevailed before the 2008 meltdown. Nobody seems to think there will be a big uptick in new jobs. Lackluster hiring means consumer spending is unlikely to rocket higher. Too many people remain out of work and the growth in the average worker’s paycheck isn’t even keeping up with the low increase in annual inflation. Business are waiting for the consumer to spend, consumers are waiting for businesses to hire. Something needs to happen to kick start the economy, a jolt of stimulus, but don’t hold out for …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Tuesday, June 19, 2012 – There is No Escape for the Fed – by Sinclair Noe

06192012 ScriptDOW + 95 = 12,837SPX + 13 = 1357NAS + 34 = 292910 YR YLD +.04 = 1.62%OIL – .12 = 84.23GOLD – 10.80 = 1618.90SILV – .32 = 28.52PLAT – 2.00 = 1487.00The Federal Reserve FOMC is meeting today and tomorrow to determine monetary policy for the next few weeks. Here is what they will probably say tomorrow. They won’t lower interest rates; interest rates are at zero; interest rates are actually already negative when you consider the effects of inflation. Operation Twist is scheduled to expire in about two weeks. The idea behind Operation Twist is that the Fed sells shorter-term securities and buys longer-term securities with the goal of reducing long-term interest rates to encourage borrowing and spending. The yield on the 10-year note is 1.62%, so rates are pretty low even though the Twist hasn’t been able to encourage a big round of borrowing and spending. Low interest rates alone have not been enough to create demand. Operation Twist is the Fed pushing on a string – which is to say, supply side economics is a crock.Here’s the conundrum for the Fed – how do they exit Operation Twist without creating a problem, possibly unwinding those nice, ultra-low interest rates? The Fed might announce a limited extension of the Twist, maybe to September or they might just offer a soft extension – saying something like: “we will monitor long-term rates and stand ready to maintain stability”. As far as QE3 – not likely. Europe hasn’t collapsed, …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Monday, June 18, 2012 – G-20 Declares Ceviche Tasty and Democracy Messy – by Sinclair Noe

DOW – 25 = 12,741SPX +1 = 1344NAS + 22 = 289510 YR YLD un=1.58%OIL -.26 = 83.01GOLD + 2.00 = 1629.70SILV un= 28.84PLAT – 1.00 = 1489.00The results of the Greek election shows conservative New Democracy taking 29 percent, with the radical leftist Syriza bloc just behind on 27. The Pasok Socialists were set to take 12 percent of the vote. The scenario is similar to the results of an earlier round of voting. ND also came in first in May 6 elections, again with Syriza running a close second, but failed to form a government then. And 38% of eligible voters did not vote yesterday; that’s more votes than any one party received. The headlines say that a pro-bailout, pro-remain in the Euro-union party won the Greek elections; it’s not that simple. There was no majority. The next step is for New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras to form a coalition government; not an easy or certain task, and it must be done within the next 10 days. Look for a combo of the New Democracy conservatives and  the Pasok socialists; the same group that governed Greece into this mess in the first place. Pasok, the Socialist party, called for a government that would include Syriza, the far left party, but  Syriza ruled out joining a coalition that would stick to the punishing bailout terms that have helped condemn Greece to five years of record recession. Alexix Tsipras, the leader of Syriza, had vowed to tear up the terms, betting that …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

March, Monday 19, 2012

DOW + 6 = 13,239SPX + 5 = 1409NAS + 23 = 307810 YR YLD +.08  = 2.38% OIL  – .31 = 107.78GOLD + 3.40 = 1664.50SILV + .36 = 33.02PLAT + 10.00 = 1685.00 The S&P 500 Index is now at its highest level since May 2008 and 10 percent below the record close of 1,565.15 set in October 2007. Apple rose 15.53 to $601.10 per share, pushing the market cap to $560 billion. It is the first time Apple has closed above $600. The market capitalization makes Apple the most valuable publicly traded company in the world. This is a parabolic rise; Apple is up almost 50% for the quarter. Today’s move followed an announcement they would pay a dividend of $2.65 per quarter starting in July, and also a $10 billion stock buyback program, and also that sales of the iPad 3 topped 3 million over the weekend.  It all sounds a little frothy. I mean, what are they going to do next Monday? Treasuries continued to drop. Thirty-year-bond yield added 7 basis points to 3.48%, a level it hasn’t close above since September. Yields on 10-year notes rose for a fifth day, by 8 basis points to 2.38%, from as low as 2.26% touched during European trading hours. Yields haven’t closed above that level since Oct. 27. Yield moves inversely to prices. In a speech, William Dudley, president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank said “the economy still faces significant headwinds” and inflation is expected …

READ MORE →