Financial Review

Out of the Void

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-31-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:05 — 7.5MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…July was a good month on Wall Street. Apple beats. Facebook does something about bad actors. Home prices up, but construction loses workers. Consumer confidence up. PCE up. Spending up. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-31-2018

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Financial Review

Halftime

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-29-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Halfway through 2018 – Down down, S&P modest gain, Nasdaq good. Nike hits record. Banks rally. Inflation hits Fed’s target. Kudlow wrong. Trade tensions heat up next week. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-29-2018

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Financial Review

Populist Airlines

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-29-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..3Q finishes on bullish highs. GOP tax scheme doesn’t add up. Tom Price flies into sunset. Consumer spending barely budges. PCE slips. Equifax freeze. Whole Food hack. Puerto Rico’s credit vultures. VW pays more. EVs cost less. Musk’ BFR. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-29-2017

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Financial Review

In the Wake of the Storm

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-31-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Harvey moves on leaving a mess in its wake. Tax reform and deficit spending in Washington. Inflation, soft-flation, stagflation. Net neutrality, anybody? Anybody? Wells Fargo, again. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-31-2017

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Financial Review

1Q in the Can

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-31-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..First quarter wrap-up. PCE inflation on the rise – tops Fed target. Consumer spending inches up, but we lost spending power due to inflation. Consumer sentiment very strong. Telecoms bow to consumers over privacy, but net neutrality on the horizon. Airbus and Boeing unveil new planes. SpaceX reuses its rocket. Highways crumble in Atlanta. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 03-31-2017

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Financial Review

21K

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-01-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..New record highs. Dow tops 21k. Short squeeze? Trump spake. Fed Beige Book is modest to moderate. PCE closes in on 2%. ISM manufacturing jumps. YouTube TV will destroy cable – resistance is futile. Fidelity goes low. Best Buy bested. Wells Fargo soft pedaled bogus accounts. JPMorgan can’t lose. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 03-01-2017

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Financial Review

De Facto Fail

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-29-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSConsumer spending up with no signs of inflation. Arizona and Illinois election hack. Brazil impeachment update. TTIP de facto fail. Apple’s sweetheart tax deal. SunEdison cannibalized by creditors. The EpiPen price gouge continues generically. Drones will rule the world.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-29-2016

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Financial Review

7 Straight

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-02-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSDow down 7 straight. Oil under $40. Consumers spend more, save less. Home prices higher. Japan tries more stimulus. Auto sales slip. Biogen deal? Euro banks crushed again. Miami travel alert. Drones rule. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-02-2016

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Financial Review

The Radical and Necessary Notion

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-27-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS1Q GDP revised up to 0.8%; economy slogs along. Yellen hawkish, with an oops. Why G7? Why Sears? Philips turns out the lights. ACLU-MSFT tag team for 4th Amendment. Obama in Hiroshima. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-27-2016

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Financial Review

May Maybe

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-29-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSEnd of week, end of month,  no inflation, dollar soft, Exxon and Chevron get ugly, Woodstock for Capitalists and a dying breed. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-29-2016

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Financial Review

I Would Like to Thank the Academy

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-26-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-26-2016 DOW – 57 = 16,639 SPX – 3 = 1948 NAS + 8 = 4590 10 Y + .07 = 1.76 OIL – .29 = 32.79 GOLD – 10.90 = 1222.80   For the week, the Dow Industrials added 1.5%, the S&P 500 gained 2%, the Nasdaq was up 1.9%. The S&P 500 has rallied about 6.5 percent since reaching a 22-month low on Feb. 11, it remains lower by more than 4.5 percent for the year. The dollar strengthened for a third day versus the yen, while yields on 10-year Treasury notes topped 1.75 percent. Oil capped the biggest weekly gain since August, with a 10% move. China’s central bank said it sees room for monetary easing. Chinese markets were up over 1% after a big 6% drop Thursday.  The MSCI All-Country World Index rose 0.1 percent, while the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1.5 percent. Gold posted a consecutive weekly drop for the first time this year.   Finance ministers and central bank governors from the world’s leading economies have gathered in Shanghai to discuss a response to the global economic landscape. Among the many issues facing them is the plunge in commodity prices, market volatility, exchange rates and the slowdown of China’s economy. G20 participants will try to agree on a coordinated stimulus program that could stop a global slowdown from turning into something worse. …

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Financial Review

The Gravy Boat

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-25-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-25-2015 DOW + 1 = 17,813 SPX – 0.27 = 2088 NAS + 13 = 5116 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.23% OIL + .25 = 43.12 GOLD – 4.50 = 1071.90 SILV – .05 = 14.26   We have a boatload, or at least a gravy boat full of economic data before we get into the holiday. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 260,000 for the week ended Nov. 21. Claims have now held below the 300,000 threshold for 38 consecutive weeks, the longest stretch in years, and remain close to levels last seen 42 years ago.   Orders for business equipment climbed more than forecast in October. Bookings for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft rose 1.3 percent, the most in three months, after an upwardly revised 0.4 percent increase in September; non-defense capital goods are considered a proxy for business investment. So, today’s report shows businesses are spending more on business. It may be too early to call it a trend reversal but cap ex spending had been weak, in large part due to cuts in the energy sector, and also the tendency for companies to indulge in share buybacks rather than plowing money back into the business.   Orders for all durable goods, items meant to last at least three years, climbed 3 percent. Commercial aircraft orders surged 81 …

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Financial Review

Pick a Lane

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-17-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-17-2015 DOW + 6 = 17,489 SPX – 2 = 2050 NAS + 1 = 4986 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.26% OIL – .95 = 40.79 GOLD – 12.30 = 1070.80 SILV – .06 = 14.29   Global equity markets moved higher today, following the rally yesterday on Wall Street and brushed off concerns related to Friday’s terror attacks in Paris. In their final communique from a summit in Turkey, the leaders of the world’s largest economies stuck to a goal of lifting their collective output by an extra 2% by 2018, even though growth remains uneven and weaker than expected globally. G20 leaders also endorsed plans to address Syria’s refugee crisis, taxation, climate change, cyber security and inequality.   France launched another set of airstrikes on the ISIS stronghold of Raqqa in Syria early Tuesday as the country steps up its response to last week’s deadly attacks. The bombings follow a second night of home searches in France and Belgium to catch those responsible and linked to the killings. President Francois Hollande is now looking to expand his powers under France’s state-of-emergency statute and has called on the U.S. and Russia to form a “big unified coalition” to destroy ISIS.   Meanwhile, Russian officials said they had found evidence that the passenger jet that crashed in Egypt last month was downed by a bomb, the first time …

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Financial Review

Canoe Trips on Mars

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-28-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-28-2015   DOW – 312 = 16,001 SPX – 49 = 1881 NAS – 142 = 4543 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.09% OIL – .03 = 44.40 GOLD – 14.20 = 1133.10 SILV – .53 = 14.70   Well, this was just ugly. All three major indices traded in correction territory today or more than 10 percent below their 52-week highs. For the Nasdaq Composite, the 50 day moving average crossed the 200 day moving average, forming a pattern that goes by the catchy name “death cross”. The Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF closed down 6.3%, following a 5% drop on Friday.   Shares in mining and trading company Glencore fell almost 30 percent and closed at a record low, wiping out more than $5 billion in market valuation. The fall followed publication of a note by analysts at investment bank Investec which raised doubts about Glencore’s valuation if spot metal prices do not improve. The note pointed to high debt levels and a need for deeper restructuring. The analysts wrote: “If major commodity prices remain at current levels, our analysis implies that, in the absence of substantial restructuring, nearly all the equity value of both Glencore and Anglo American could evaporate.” Glencore, a Swiss based company, has said it will suspend dividends, sell assets and raise cash with a $2.5 billion share placement, among other measures, to cut its …

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Financial Review

Do Computers Dream of Algorithmic Capitulation?

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-28-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-28-2015 DOW – 11 = 16,643 SPX + 1 = 1988 NAS + 15 = 4828 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.19% OIL + 2.71 = 45.27 GOLD + 8.30 = 1134.80 SILV + .08 = 14.70   The week roared in like a lion and left like a lamb. For the week, the Dow gained 1.1 percent, the S&P rose 0.9 percent and the Nasdaq added 2.6 percent. Go figure. Panicked selling on Monday and Tuesday gave way to a rush to buy on Wednesday and Thursday.  And for many investors, it was just too much. Equity funds saw $29.5 billion head for the exits, the largest weekly outflow on record. On Tuesday, investors pulled out $19 billion, the biggest single day for outflows in the past 8 years.  Some traders would call that “capitulation”, a sign of a bottom in the markets.   The chaos of this week’s markets appeared to hit smaller investors especially hard, leaving yet another dent in their stock market confidence. The Monday flash crash resulted in smaller investors being locked out of their online accounts. Strange glitches appeared. Exchanges spit out the wrong prices for widely held funds. For example, the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF dropped 33% in 15 minutes, then shot right back up 30 minutes later, while the stocks tracked by the ETF never fell that far. The QQQ, …

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Financial Review

The Value of Everything

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 5 = 17,745 SPX + .06 = 2108 NAS + 17 = 5128 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.27% OIL – .27 = 48.35 GOLD – 8.40 = 1089.30 SILV – .08 = 14.83   Gross domestic product rose at a 2.3% annual rate from April to June, missing expectations for 2.6% growth. First quarter GDP was revised to show 0.6 percent growth after previous reports showed a 0.2 percent downturn. The latest reading on GDP was propelled by higher consumer spending on big-ticket items such as new cars and trucks and the strongest housing market in years. Personal spending accounted for two percent of the 2.3% headline increase.   Builders increased spending on new home construction at a 6.6% clip in the spring, especially for townhouses, condos and apartment units. That follows 10% gains in the prior two quarters. US exports, meanwhile, snapped back with a 5.3% increase after a 6% drop in the first quarter. Imports rose at a slower 3.5% pace. The improved trade figures also gave the economy a small boost.   Business investment was weak again. Outlays on equipment declined 4.1% and the value of inventories fell slightly to $110 billion from $112.8 billion. Spending on structures such as oil platforms fell 1.6%, largely because of the drop in oil prices. The story on the economy remains consistent: strong consumption, weak investment. …

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Financial Review

Month End Review

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 195 = 17,840 SPX – 21 = 2085 NAS – 82 = 4941 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.05% OIL + 1.19 = 59.77 GOLD – 20.60 = 1185.00 SILV – .44 = 16.20   For the month, the Dow was up 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 gained 0.9 percent and the Nasdaq rose 0.8 percent. For the month of April, the dollar index fell about 3.7 percent. Some month end portfolio buying pushed yields on ten year notes to 2.05% after hitting a 7 week high of 2.11% earlier in the session. The big mover in April was in the energy market, where crude oil jumped more than 21%. S&P 500 earnings for the first quarter now are forecast to have increased 1.1 percent from a year ago, Thomson Reuters data showed, while revenue is forecast to be down 3.2 percent.   The Commerce Department reports consumer spending rose 0.4% in March as households stepped up purchases of big-ticket items like automobiles; that follows a 0.2% gain in February. The savings rate fell for the first time in four months to 5.3% from 5.7%. A year earlier, Americans were saving at a 4.8% rate. Consumer spending rose 1.9% in the first quarter, down from 4.4% and 3.2% in the prior two quarters. That might indicate there is pent-up demand, but a rebound in economic activity could …

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Financial Review

Groping Along

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 263 = 17,976 SPX + 25 = 2086 NAS + 56 = 4947 10 YR YLD + .01 = 1.96% OIL – .19 = 48.68 GOLD – 13.40 = 1186.00 SILV – .28 = 16.79   The Commerce Department reports consumer spending rose just 0.1% in February; that follows a decline in January. The small increase in spending in February and outright decline in January suggest the economy failed in early 2015 to match the pace of growth at the end of last year. Gross domestic product is forecast to expand just 1.4% in the first quarter, down from 2.2% in the fourth quarter and 5% in the third quarter. Part of the problem might be harsh winter weather; if that is the case, we might expect a rebound in consumer spending in the spring.   Or maybe the American consumer is tired of spending, and is actually starting to save. The saving rate jumped in February to 5.8 percent, the highest since December 2012 and up from 4.4 percent just three months earlier. The savings rate slumped to as low as 1.9 percent in the run-up to the recession, a sign too many Americans were spending beyond their means. Since then, consumers have been trying to clean up their finances.   The National Association of Realtors said its pending-home-sales index rose 3.1% to 106.9 after …

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Financial Review

Holy Grail

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 155 = 18,288 SPX + 12 = 2117 NAS + 44 = 5008 10 YR YLD + .08 = 2.08% OIL + .06 = 49.82 GOLD – 7.80 = 1206.90 SILV – .22 = 16.46   February was the best month for stocks since October 2011. The S&P 500 gained 5.5% in February. March is off to a fine start. The Dow Industrial Average closed at a record high. The S&P 500 closed at a record. The Nasdaq Composite hit 5000 for the first time in 15 years. And if you wonder why we celebrate when the indices hit records, it is because 15 years ago we didn’t know it would take 15 years to get back to these levels.   Earnings season is pretty much over and it wasn’t all that pretty. With 485 of 500 S&P 500 companies reporting, FactSet says the blended growth rate is only 3.7%. Without Apple that number shrinks to only 2% but then again if you take out energy, it balloons to nearly 7%. Estimates have been revised lower, which is typical; companies try to ratchet down expectations, but this is different. All sectors are showing expectation deterioration, not just energy.   Earnings growth has slowed, and valuations are a little on the pricey side, and expectations are down. So, why are stocks at record highs? Well, start with the idea that …

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Financial Review

One Foot on the Gas, One Foot on the Brake

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 251 = 17,164 SPX – 26 = 1994 NAS – 48 = 4635 10 YR YLD – .08 = 1.67% OIL + 3.25 = 47.78 GOLD + 25.00 = 1284.10 SILV + .31 = 17.33 GDP growth slows. The Commerce Department reports fourth quarter gross domestic product grew by 2.6%, down from a very strong 5% growth rate in the third quarter. The results were below consensus estimates of 3% growth. For all of 2014, the economy grew 2.4% compared to 2.2% in 2013. Consumer spending advanced at a 4.3% pace in the fourth quarter – the fastest since the first quarter of 2006 and an acceleration from the third quarter’s 3.2% pace. The final read on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index was 98.1, down a tick from the 98.2 in the preliminary estimate. That’s still above the 93.6 mark in December and the best reading in 11 years. Just as consumers were stepping on the gas, businesses were tapping the brakes. Business spending on equipment fell at a 1.9% rate. It was the largest contraction since the second quarter of 2009. The fourth-quarter weakness could reflect cuts or delays to investment projects in the oil industry. But it could also be payback after two back-to-back quarters of robust gains. A wider trade deficit, as slower global growth curbed exports and solid domestic demand sucked …

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