Financial Review

Settling a Score

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-24-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Fed minutes point to June rate hike and slowly shrinking balance sheet. CBO scores AHCA and it is ugly. Trump and Pope Francis. Previously owned home sales sputter. China’s credit rating cut. Brazil ablaze. Fiat Chrysler pulls a VW. Facebook buying news.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-24-2017

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Financial Review

A Busy Economic Calendar

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-30-2015 DOW – 78 = 17,719 SPX – 9 = 2080 NAS – 18 = 5108 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.22% OIL + .02 = 41.73 GOLD + 7.90 = 1065.50 SILV – .01 = 14.16   For the month, the Dow was up 0.3%, S&P 500 gained 0.1% and the Nasdaq gained 1.1%. The yuan rallied after the IMF said it will be added to its basket of reserve currencies. The euro capped its worst month versus the dollar since March. The yield gap between German and American bonds widened to the most in nine years, while emerging-market stocks posted their biggest monthly slump since August. This week’s economic calendar is packed. Today the National Association of Realtors reported pending home sales rose 0.2% in October and its index of contract signings is up 3.9% compared to a year ago. NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, said supply isn’t keeping up with strong demand. You know the old supply-demand formula, and tight supply points to higher prices.   Data due tomorrow includes US auto sales, ISM Manufacturing, PMI manufacturing, and construction spending. Look for auto sales to come in at an annualized rate of 18.0 million units, with a particular emphasis on VW sales following the emissions cheating scandal. The Markit PMI is expected to drop slightly from 54.1 in October to about 52.5 in November. The ISM manufacturing …

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Financial Review

Busy Day

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-25-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-25-2015   DOW + 113 = 16,314 SPX – 0.9 = 1931 NAS – 47 = 4686 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.17% OIL + .64 = 45.55 GOLD – 7.70 = 1147.40 SILV – .05 = 15.20   For the week, the Dow was down 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 was down 1.4 percent and the Nasdaq was down 2.9 percent.   Yesterday afternoon we told you about Janet Yellen’s speech in Massachusetts; Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen says that an initial rate hike is likely to be appropriate this year. Yellen said she expects inflation will return to 2% over the next few years as temporary factors currently holding it down will wane. Signs of weak growth overseas won’t prove large enough to have a significant impact on policy. Yellen said: “Most FOMC participants, including myself, currently anticipate…an initial increase in the federal funds rate later this year, followed by a gradual pace of tightening thereafter.”   Near the end of her speech, Yellen kind of froze up; she went silent for a while, stumbled over her words, and seemed to be having a hard time. After the speech paramedics checked her out and gave her a clean bill of health. Later attributed the incident to dehydration. She was back at work today.   This morning we heard reports House Speaker John Boehner would resign his position as Speaker of …

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Financial Review

Speech of the Day

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-24-2015   DOW – 75 = 16,201 SPX – 6 = 1932 NAS – 18 = 4734 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.12% OIL + .43 = 44.91 GOLD + 23.80 = 1155.10 SILV + .36 = 15.25   Pope Francis addressed a joint meeting of Congress this morning. Francis urged the United States not to turn its back on undocumented immigrants, to reject the victimization of religious and ethnic minorities, to overcome income inequality and to save the planet from climate change, citing Scripture and the nation’s founding ideals. He also asked lawmakers to wage a constant battle against poverty and to ensure the wealth of the world is equitably shared and used to create jobs. It was really a very remarkable and beautifully crafted speech. I’m posting a link to the full text of the speech on by blog, and I would hope that you have a chance to hear or read the entire speech because it covers some of the most important issues of our time. You may be in total agreement with Francis or you might disagree with some parts, but make no mistake – this was a strong and moving address from one of the most influential people in the world.  After the speech, Francis went from some of the most powerful people to some of the least powerful as he had …

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Financial Review

Déjà vu All Over Again

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-23-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-23-2015   DOW – 50 = 16,279 SPX – 3 = 1938 NAS – 3 = 4752 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.14% OIL – 1.67 = 44.69 GOLD + 5.70 = 1131.40 SILV + .03 = 14.89   Pope Francis visited the White House this morning. Speaking from the South Lawn before a crowd of about 15,000, the Pope said “climate change is a problem which can no longer be left to a future generation. When it comes to the care of our common home, we are living at a critical moment of history”; this was also a reference to his encyclical published in May, “Laudato Si – On Care for Our Common Home”, which addressed climate change. Francis has been a frequent critic of the damage caused to the world’s poor and the environment by capitalism’s excesses.   He also urged more attention be paid to the millions in poverty now overlooked by society, quoting Martin Luther King that “we have defaulted on a promissory note and now it is time to honor it.” Pope Francis said he will encourage Congress to guide the U.S. in fidelity to its founding principles including religious liberty. He referred briefly to the issue of immigration, and called on the U.S. to build a “truly tolerant and inclusive” society. Francis described himself as the son of an immigrant Italian family …

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Financial Review

Never the Twain Shall Meet

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-22-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-22-2015 DOW – 179 = 16,330 SPX – 24 = 1942 NAS – 72 = 4756 10 YR YLD – .09 = 2.12% OIL – .85 = 45.83 GOLD – 8.70 = 1125.70 SILV – .45 = 14.87   Pope Francis is in Washington. The Pope will visit Washington, New York City and Philadelphia as part of his first-ever trip to the U.S., a six-day, five-night trip which will feature a couple of masses that are expected to draw huge crowds. The Pope will address a joint session of Congress Thursday; he may make points that challenge both parties, particularly if he repeats his remarks against what he sees as the excesses of globalization and capitalism. And he may discomfort both the White House and Congress if he urges them to do more to help Syrian refugees flooding through Europe. Then he will address the United Nations General Assembly in New York, where he will also conduct mass at Madison Square Garden on Friday.   China’s President Xi Jinping touched down in Seattle today to meet American business leaders before heading to Washington on Thursday to speak with President Obama. The two will discuss several thorny issues, including cybersecurity, the South China Sea, North Korea’s nuclear threat, human rights and a widening trade deficit. President Xi will tour the Boeing aircraft plant near Seattle. Not much new to see …

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Financial Review

The End of Summer

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-21-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-21-2015 DOW + 125 = 16,510 SPX + 8 = 1966 NAS + 1 = 4828 10 YR YLD + .08 = 2.21% OIL – .26 = 46.42 GOLD – 6.50 = 1134.40 SILV + .03 = 15.31   The National Association of Realtors says sales of previously owned homes fell 4.8% in August to an annual pace of 5.31 million, marking the first decline in four months. The sales rate in July was revised down slightly to a seasonally adjusted 5.58 million, but that was still the highest level in eight years. The median price of homes sold was up 4.7% to $228,700 from 12 months ago. Inventories of existing homes on the market rose 1.3% to 2.29 million, representing 5.2 months’ supply at current sales trends. Sales fell in all major regions except the Northeast, where they were unchanged.   The Federal Reserve reports businesses racked up new debt at an annual rate of 8.3% in the second quarter. That was the fastest growth since the first quarter of 2008 and was driven mostly by corporate bond issuance. While issuing debt, the corporate stockpile of cash rose to $2.06 trillion from $1.99 trillion. The Fed report also shows that households and nonprofits saw their net worth increase by $695 billion in the second quarter, mostly due to the rise in home values but also due to the …

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Financial Review

Sooner Rather Than Later

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-18-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 180 = 18,115 SPX + 20 = 2121 NAS + 68 = 5132 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.35% OIL + .53 = 60.45 GOLD + 16.90 = 1203.00 SILV + .04 = 16.26   Three straight days of gains on Wall Street.  The Nasdaq finished up 68 points, or 1.3%, to 5132.95 and hit a new intraday record high of 5143.32. That tops its previous all-time intraday high of 5132.52, set back in March 10, 2000. The Nasdaq’s previous closing high of 5,106.59 was notched much more recently, on May 27. The rally was broad-based as all 10 S&P sectors rose with health care leading the way and all 30 stocks of the Dow posted gains.   We start with economic data. The consumer price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% last month, almost entirely because of a surge in gasoline prices ahead of the summer driving season. Gas prices shot up 10.4% to mark the largest gain in six years. The overall cost of food, meanwhile, was unchanged for the second month in a row. Stripping out the volatile food and energy categories, so-called core consumer prices rose a much milder 0.1% in May. The cost of housing, airline tickets and medical care all rose while clothing prices declined.   The Conference Board’s leading economic index rose 0.7% in May for the second month …

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Financial Review

Underwater

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-12-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 140 = 17,898 SPX – 14 = 2094 NAS – 31 = 5051 10 YR YLD +. 01 = 2.39% OIL – .74 = 60.03 GOLD – .70 = 1182.30 SILV – .07 = 16.06   The Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal hit a major roadblock today. The House rejected a key part of a package to fast-track the trade deal. The House voted today on two measures, both of which had to pass in order to send the legislation, which was already approved by the Senate, to the president. A bill to give the president fast-track authority to negotiate future trade deals was approved by a 219-211 vote. But another measure regarding funds to retrain workers failed, 126 to 302. Because the Senate had approved both measures, the failure of the retraining program prevented the package from advancing. The measure would give the Obama administration the ability to wrap up negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free-trade deal years in the making, and present a final agreement to Congress for expedited consideration and an up-or-down vote with no amendments.   In one of the more unusual coalitions of the Obama administration, the trade agenda found strong support with Republicans, while Democrats ended up blocking the measure. Democrats had repeatedly asked for the administration to make the trade deals public before seeking the fast-track power. Democrats also …

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Financial Review

The Moral and Economic Issue of Our Time

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-22-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 88 = 18,038 SPX + 10 = 2107 NAS + 21 = 5035 10 YR YLD + .06 = 1.98% OIL – .45 = 56.16 GOLD – 15.00 = 1187.80 SILV – .22 = 15.86   The National Association of Realtors reports existing home sales increased 6.1% in March, the fastest pace of sales in 18 months. The jump in March sales follows a couple of slow months due, at least in part, to bad winter weather. But the latest figures suggest the mix of low mortgage rates, steady job creation and pent-up demand could push full-year sales to prerecession levels. Mortgage rates also are still near their lows for the year. The average interest rate on a fixed, 30-year mortgage was 3.67% last week, down from 4.27% a year ago, according to Freddie Mac’s latest weekly survey.   Greece will not present a list of economic reforms to Eurozone finance ministers on Friday; the deadlines don’t really help and they might even hurt because they lead to brinksmanship in negotiations on what reforms the Syriza government in Greece needs to do to secure more funding. There are signs Greece’s creditors are curbing demands for far-reaching reforms as part of current talks, perhaps a realization that they can’t get blood from a turnip, but the softening stance comes on condition Greece stays co-operative on fiscal targets. The liquidity situation …

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Financial Review

Have a Cigar

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-17-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 288 = 17,356 SPX + 40 = 2012 NAS + 96 = 4644 10 YR YLD + .08 = 2.15% OIL + .06 = 55.94 GOLD – 6.10 = 1189.90 SILV + .03 = 15.85 I have been telling you for a few years now that the Fed is a vital force in the stock market. I have talked about how the stock market has advanced along with the Fed’s balance sheet. Today absolutely confirms what I’ve been telling you. Most major indices started the day a little higher, and then jumped following the Fed’s FOMC statement and again during Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s press conference. At one point the Dow Industrial Average was up about 300 points; and then people started to digest what was being said; which is what we will do right now.

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Financial Review

Friday, June 13, 2014, – Infallible Source Predicts Economic Collapse!

Infallible Source Predicts Economic Collapse! by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 41 = 16,775 SPX + 6 = 1936 NAS + 13 = 4310 10 YRYLD + .02 = 2.60% OIL + .38 = 106.91 GOLD + 2.80 = 1276.90 SILV + .15 = 19.77   For the week, the Dow was down 0.9%, the S&P fell 0.7 percent and the Nasdaq was down 0.25%. The week’s decline was the first after three weeks of consecutive gains on the S&P 500. For the year, the broad market index is up about 4.8%. So, it was a rough week, but a good Friday the 13th. The Producer Price Index measures prices at the wholesale level; the PPI was down 0.2% in May. The decline was driven lower by cheaper food and gas, and follows two months of strong gains. In the past 12 months, producer prices have risen 2%, matching the Federal Reserve’s inflation target. That’s down from an annual gain of 2.1% in April. Excluding the volatile food, energy and profit margin categories, (for all you people who don’t eat food or drive in cars) core producer prices were unchanged in May. Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, has been mostly below 2% for the past two years.   Of course, that might change, at least for people who eat and drive cars. The price of oil has jumped the past few days, now standing at $106.91 a barrel, mainly on fears of a civil war in Iraq. …

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Thursday, March 13, 2014 – White Smoke

White Smokeby Sinclair Noe DOW – 231 = 16,108SPX – 21 = 1846NAS – 62 = 426010 YR YLD – .07 = 2.65%OIL + .25 = 98.24GOLD + 3.90 = 1372.10SILV – .15 = 21.28 Let’s start with some economic news, and then we’ll get to today’s anniversary (yes, we have another one to talk about). The federal budget deficit narrowed in February, shrinking 5% from a year earlier as receipts jumped and spending only modestly rose. The shortfall was $194 billion for February, versus the $204 billion recorded in the same month a year ago. The deficit has been steadily improving in the past several years, dropping to $680 billion in fiscal 2013. Retail sales increased 0.3% from January to February; December to January sales were revised lower by 0.4%; sales were up 1.5% from February a year ago. Retail sales excluding gasoline increased by 2.2% on a year to year basis. Initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending March 8, decreased by 9,000 to 315,000. Since federal unemployment insurance expired on Dec. 28, an estimated two million Americans have missed out on the benefits. Today, a bipartisan group of Senators reached a deal to extend federal long-term unemployment insurance for 5 months. The deal would be distributed retroactively to when benefits ended in December. The cost of about $10 billion would be offset by some tricky accounting known as “pension smoothing”. The bill still needs to clear a Senate vote, probably in late March; then it …

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Tuesday, January 21, 2014 – Real Risks

Real Risks by Sinclair Noe DOW – 44= 16,414SPX + 5 = 1843NAS + 28 = 422510 YR YLD unch = 2.82%OIL + .67 = 95.26GOLD – 13.00 = 1242.70SILV – .41 = 20.01 Wall Street’s attention this week will mainly focus on earnings reports given the dearth of economic data. There are only a few important economic reports this week, all of which will be released on Thursday. Thursday’s reports include the November FHFA housing price index (expected +0.3% m/m), December existing home sales (expected +1.0%), and December leading indicators (expected +0.2%). The Treasury on Thursday will sell $15 billion of 10-year TIPS. The markets will be looking to next week’s FOMC meeting where the consensus is that the FOMC will taper QE3 by another $10 billion to $65 billion per month. Global stocks found support as Chinese money-market rates dropped after the People’s Bank of China added funds and expanded access to a lending facility after the 7-day repurchase rate had surged 153 basis points to a 1-month high of 6.32% on Monday. In an attempt to alleviate a liquidity squeeze, the PBOC added more than 255 billion yuan ($42 billion) into the financial system and will allow small and medium-sized Chinese banks to access its Standing Lending Facility for loans of up to 2-weeks on a trial basis before China’s Lunar New Year holiday begins on Jan 31; this was in addition to a liquidity injection made just yesterday for an unspecified amount. The yield on Portugal’s …

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Tuesday, December 17, 2013 – The Year in Financial Review

The Year in Financial Review by Sinclair Noe They say you can’t know where you’re going if you don’t know where you’re coming from, so today on the Review, we’ll review some of the financial milestones of 2013. You may recall that 12 months ago, we were headed over the fiscal cliff. The fiscal cliff really started in 2001 with the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act, also known as the Bush tax cuts; after various extensions, they were set to expire at the end of 2012. And they did. In the end, Congress did not approve an extension of most of the tax cuts until late on New Year’s Day. Because all the Bush tax cuts had technically expired, Republicans could say they had not violated their No New Taxes pledge. The marginal rate on incomes over $400k increased, plus cap gains, and qualified dividends for high-income taxpayers, plus some estate tax changes, and the holiday on the payroll tax ended; just to be sure everybody felt some pain. President Obama signed the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 on January 2. The ATRA is usually described as a tax increase although technically it might be a tax cut. The confusion arises because there were so many expiring provisions at the end of 2012.  ATRA could be described as either a $618 billion tax increase, relative to maintenance of all of the provisions that had been in place – that is, relative to so-called “current policy”; or a $4 …

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Thursday, December 12, 2013 – Three Strikes

Three Strikes by Sinclair Noe DOW – 104 = 15,739SPX – 6 = 1775NAS – 5 = 399810 YR YLD + .03 = 2.88%OIL – .06 = 97.38GOLD – 27.10 = 1226.20SILV – .81 = 19.60 Stocks down for a third day in a row, and except for that big gain on the news of the monthly jobs report, this has been a nasty start to December. Weekly jobless claims jumped to 368,00 from 300,000 the week before. Overall retail sales climbed a seasonally adjusted 0.7% last month, the most since June.  Auto sales jumped 1.8% in November, the most since June. Meanwhile, there were drops in retail sales of 0.2% for clothing and accessories stores, and 1.1% at gasoline stations. Online and other non-store retailers saw sales rise 2.2% in November, the most since July 2012. Over the past year, retail sales have grown 4.7%. Inventories at US businesses rose 0.7% in October. Maybe businesses are expecting a great holiday shopping season but it isn’t looking good. Neither the jobless claims nor the retail sales will move the Fed’s current position on tapering. Markets have been focused on the timing and the slope of Fed bond-buying tapering and not on anything else. Most likely, the Fed will meet next week and not taper, but they will likely communicate clearly their intent to taper. The just agreed 2014-2015 US budget deal faces a crucial test today when the House of Representatives votes on the bill, with Speaker John Boehner urging …

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Wednesday, December 11, 2013 – Let’s Make A Deal

Let’s Make A Deal by Sinclair Noe DOW – 129 = 15,843SPX – 20 = 1782NAS -56 = 400310 YR YLD + .05 = 2.84%OIL -1.09 = 97.42GOLD – 9.70 = 1253.30SILV – .13 = 20.40 We have a deal. Bipartisan budget negotiators, led by senator Patty Murray for the Democrats and House Republican Paul Ryan, announced last night that they have reached a deal to settle the federal budget for two years, and avert a possible government shutdown. We have a deal; it’s just not a done deal. There is pressure from both the left and right, as Democrats sought to negotiate a further deal on unemployment benefits and Republicans fended off attacks from conservative pressure groups. House Speaker John Boehner lashed out at right wing groups such as the Heritage Foundation, claiming they were criticizing the compromise deal before they even knew what was in it. Meanwhile, some Democrats lashed out at the $1 trillion deal because it did not include an extension of long term unemployment benefits for some 2.1 million out of work workers. Republican leaders will likely have to rely on House Minority leader Nancy Pelosi to deliver sufficient Democratic votes to counter any rebellion among their Tea Party wing, which gives the minority leader a rare moment of leverage. So far, Republicans have not ruled out allowing a separate vote to extend long-term unemployment benefits, but signal they too want more concessions from Democrats first. There is also opposition from Republicans in the Senate, who …

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Wednesday, November 27, 2013 – Evangelii Gaudium and Happy Thanksgiving

Evangelii Gaudium and Happy Thanksgiving by Sinclair Noe DOW + 24 = 16,097SPX + 4 = 1807NAS + 27 = 404410 YR YLD + .03 = 2.74%OIL – 1.40 = 92.28GOLD – 4.40 = 1238.60SILV – .11 = 19.80 This has been a quiet week on Wall Street; the two major features have been record highs for the DOW and the S&P and 13 year highs for the Nasdaq, combined with light volume. Now normally, light volume on record highs would be an indication the market has run out of steam and is ready to roll over. But this is a holiday shortened week; the markets are closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving, and then just very, very quiet day on Friday. So, it’s difficult to read much into the price and volume other than to say, there is a pause for the holiday. Happy Thanksgiving. Plenty to be thankful for; the S&P 500 has climbed 2.8 percent in November, poised for the third straight monthly gain. The S&P 500 is up 27% this year; the Nasdaq is up 33% year to date. Economic data today shows fewer workers filed applications for unemployment benefits last week; that’s a good report for the labor market. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment in November unexpectedly rose to 75.1 from 73.2 a month earlier, and came in higher than expected. The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators, a gauge of the economic outlook for the next three to six months, rose …

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Tuesday, November 26, 2013 – The Best Question

The Best Question by Sinclair Noe DOW + 0.26 = 16,072SPX + 0.27 = 1802NAS + 23 = 401710 YR YLD – .02 = 2.71%OIL – .60 = 93.49GOLD – 9.60 = 1243.00SILV – .39 = 19.92 Today we celebrate the Nasdaq. Yes, the Dow is at record highs, again, but the milk and cookies thing is getting old, kind of sickly sweet. Some might argue that you can never have too many cookies; that any day with milk and cookies is a good day. It’s hard to dispute this argument. Still, it bears notice that the Nasdaq has closed above 4,000 for the first time in 13 years. The Nasdaq is up about 33% year to date, and counting. So, today we celebrate with chips and salsa. If you’re thinking the Nasdaq has had quite a run and it’s starting to feel like 1999, you could be forgiven, but when you put it in perspective it’s not quite the same. P/E ratios are around 19, compared with 29 just before the millennium. Price to book is now 2.6 compared to 5.1 back then. Basically, back in 1999, the Nasdaq was extremely overvalued. You can argue that it’s overvalued today, but it isn’t nearly to the old extremes. Two economic reports on the housing market today. Permits for future home construction hit a near 5-½ year-high in October and prices for single-family homes showed big gains in September, suggesting a run-up in mortgage interest rates has not derailed the housing …

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Friday, July 26, 2013 – Notes from the Favela

Notes from the Favela by Sinclair Noe DOW + 3 = 15,558SPX + 1 = 1691NAS + 7 = 3613 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.56%OIL – .82 = 104.67GOLD – .30 = 1334.80SILV – .26 = 20.09 Earlier in the week, the Dow and S&P hit record highs but the markets slipped; earlier today the Dow was down 150 points. For the week, the Dow rose 0.1 percent, the S&P 500 was flat (even as it hit a record) and the Nasdaq rose 0.7 percent. It’s Friday, and I have a bunch of notes and scraps that have been piling up, so we’ll clean the desk, in no particular order. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s final reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment climbed to 85.1 from 84.1 in June, topping expectations for 84. It was the highest level since July 2007 and was also an improvement from July’s initial reading of 83.9. Of course, if you paid a premium subscription, you could have had that information before the rest of the market. Yesterday, I mentioned former Fed Chairman Paul Volker’s remark that the only real financial innovation in the past 20 years was the ATM, which is actually about 30 years old now. And Volker wasn’t quite right; the banks haven’t done any real innovation but the hackers have. For nearly a decade, a band of cybercriminals rampaged through the servers of a global business who’s who: Among the victims were 7-Eleven, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, JetBlue …

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