Financial Review

More Records

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-11-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Record highs for Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell. Producer prices fall in Dec. DACA deal dead. Walmart breaks the bank to $11 an hour plus bonus, closes 63 Sam’s Clubs. South Korea cracks down on cryptocurrency. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-11-2018

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Financial Review

Computer Says

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-13-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow, S&P, and Russell hit record highs. Computers have taken over stocks. Wholesale inflation flat. Home prices pop. NFIB small biz optimism flat. CFO optimism wanes. Waiting on the Fed. Mr. Sessions in the briar patch. Russian cyberattack was bigger than thought. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-13-2017

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Financial Review

Thus Spake Yellen

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-14-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Retail sales rebound. Consumer sentiment dips – blame the election, it is driving us crazy. PPI up. Treasury tackles earnings stripping. Janet Yellen on the grand experiment of economics and the path forward. Earnings: JPM (zero systemic problems but billions in fines), C, WFC (Ohio puts Wells Fargo on probation). A faster server. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-14-2016.

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Financial Review

Sneaking Through the Backdoor

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-17-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-17-2016   DOW + 257 = 16,453 SPX + 31 = 1926 NAS + 98 = 4534 10 Y + .04 = 1.82% OIL + 2.35 = 31.39 GOLD + 8.10 = 1209.40   Three in a row; three up days, and good moves at that. If you believe the old adage that every stock market advance is short covering, you have some evidence to back your position. The most shorted stocks among Russell 3000 members gained 6.5% over just two trading days, Friday and Tuesday, while the least shorted issues trailed the Russell’s 4.6% advance over the same period. And while it looks like last Thursday’s lows provided some support in the short-term, it is too soon to see if that support will hold. Anyone who is calling a bottom in the market is just making stuff up. I don’t know, you don’t know. What we know is the markets have been all over the map in the past 2 months, flitting from one crisis to the next. The good news is that nothing has blown up yet. The bad news is that everything is volatile.   Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Venezuela announced an agreement Tuesday to freeze oil production in an effort to ease the oil glut. On Wednesday, Iran said it wouldn’t join the effort, as its production just came back online following years of …

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Financial Review

Bad Things in the Midwest

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-14-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 191 = 18,252 SPX + 22 = 2121.10 NAS + 69 = 5050 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.24% OIL – .77 = 59.73 GOLD + 6.30 = 1222.40 SILV + .35 = 17.55   The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed at an all-time high, taking out the previous closing high of 2117.69. The Dow is still about 36 points shy of its record closing high. The dollar is on track for its longest weekly losing streak since October 2013. The bond market rallied, just a little, which is at least a change from the past couple of weeks. The earnings season is winding down, and it was ugly, but it looks like there will be positive earnings growth coming from the first quarter numbers. The economic data has been tepid.   The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits in the first full week of May fell by 1,000 to 264,000. New claims have registered less than 270,000 for three straight weeks, only the second instance in which that’s happened since 1975. Continuing jobless claims, people already collecting benefits, were unchanged at 2.23 million in the week ended May 2.   Producer prices, or prices at the wholesale level, fell a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in April to mark the seventh decline in the last nine months, mainly because of lower gasoline and food costs. Core …

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Financial Review

Patience For Now

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-13-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 145 = 17,749 SPX – 12 = 2053 NAS –  21 =  4871 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.11% OIL – 2.05 = 45.00 At one point today, the Dow was down 250, so it could have been worse. For the week, the Dow was down 0.6% and the S&P 500 fell 0.9%. The Nasdaq was down 1.1% for the week. Today is Friday the 13th. All I can say is pure coincidence. We looked at the market for 148 Friday the 13ths, going back to 1928, there is no particular trend. In the last week of January we saw oil prices drop to right around the $45 a barrel level, with intraday lows of $44.37, but the daily closing price hovering just a little above $45. And in February, prices popped up to touch $55.05; prices challenging $55 on 3 days, and could not break out. So, now we are back to challenging support at $45. And waiting to see if the trading range will break down.   The International Energy Agency says oil prices remain fragile due to unrelenting production by US shale-oil producers. There has been an expectation that oil producers would cut back production in response to lower oil prices, but the IEA  report shows oil production in the US has increased by 115,000 barrels, and now we’re running out of places to store the …

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Financial Review

Justice Delayed is Par for the Course

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-18-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 17 = 18,029 SPX – 0.66 = 2099 NAS + 7 = 4906 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.06% OIL – 2.56 = 50.97   The S&P 500 closed above 2,100 for the first time ever on Tuesday, delivering year-end target goals to Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse and Barclays nearly 11 months early.   Greece confirms that it plans to submit a request to the euro zone tomorrow to extend a “loan agreement” for up to six months, but EU paymaster Germany says Athens must stick to the terms of its existing international bailout. Greece wants to maintain a budget surplus before interest payments equal to 1.5 percent of gross domestic product; the current plan calls for a budget surplus equal to 4.5 percent of GDP. It’s still unclear what the terms of the extension will look like, as both Athens and its creditors seem determined not to compromise over the loan’s conditions.   The Federal Reserve released minutes from the January 27-28 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The minutes reveal that “Many participants indicated that their assessment of the balance of risks associated with the timing of the beginning of policy normalization had inclined them toward keeping the federal funds rate at its effective lower bound for a longer time.” Allow me to translate; the Fed would like to put off raising interest rates because the economy …

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Financial Review

Say Cheese

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-15-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 106 = 17,320 SPX – 18 = 1992 NAS – 68 = 4570 10 YR YLD – .06 = 1.77% OIL – 2.28 = 46.20 GOLD + 33.50 = 1263.60 SILV + .11 = 17.06 After going through all of 2014 without a losing streak of more than three days, the S&P 500 today completed its second slide of five straight days. The benchmark gauge is down 3.4 percent over the past five days. For the past 3 years the Swiss have kept their currency, the Swiss franc, from getting too strong; they imposed a cap to keep the euro from trading below 1.20 francs. In early 2010 one franc was less than 0.7 euro. By the middle of 2011 the franc was nearly at parity against the euro, a massive move in a very short period. As the Eurozone experienced economic strife, Switzerland was calm and offered a safe haven. As money poured in, the franc became more and more expensive; which means that things made in Switzerland became more expensive when the Swiss exported. So, they capped the franc. That basically involved printing more francs and buying more euros. Fast forward to 2015, and the Eurozone is once again experiencing economic strife; money is once again pouring into Switzerland as a safe haven, and after 3 years the Swiss just threw up their hands and …

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Financial Review

Something is Rotten

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-12-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 315 = 17,280 SPX – 33 = 2002 NAS – 54 = 4653 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.10% OIL – 2.52 = 57.43 GOLD – 5.60 = 1222.80 SILV – .06 = 17.14 The fall in oil prices has been dramatic, now down almost 47% since June. Nobody was expecting it would fall that far that fast. Goldman was forecasting $85 oil for 2015 as recently as October 29. Crude-oil futures fell to their lowest since May 2009 on Friday, briefly dropping below $57 a barrel, after the International Energy Agency delivered the latest reduction in forecasts for global oil demand. On the week, oil futures have lost slightly more than 12%. So, oil is a bit oversold right here but it is never a good idea to try to catch a falling knife. And the whole drop just tells us that something is rotten in the markets. The fundamentals of oil have not changed in concert with the price. We don’t have double the oil we had in June. So why is the price cut in half? I know that’s overly simplistic, but either the market is too negative on energy, or it is not diligent enough in thinking about broader implications. Low prices lead to oil being left in the ground. Low oil prices lead to debt defaults. Low oil prices can lead …

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Financial Review

No Expectations

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-16-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 100 = 17,131 SPX + 14 = 1998 NAS + 33 = 4552 10 YR YLD un = 2.59% OIL + 1.79 = 94.71 GOLD + 2.20 = 1235.90 SILV + .03 = 18.79 Tomorrow the Federal Reserve FOMC wraps up its meeting to determine monetary policy. Even before the Fed issues a statement, the financial press is dissecting every phrase and utterance of every Fed policymaker, and trying to impart conflated significance to every twitch of an eyebrow or overstuffed briefcase. It’s pretty simple really; not much has changed over the past couple of months; the Fed is on track to end the large scale asset purchases under QE; the Fed will raise rates at some point, unless something drastic changes; the nuances of language are inconsequential. There, I’ve just condensed about 100 articles into about 100 words, and you didn’t miss anything. You’re welcome. Today, China jumped on the QE bandwagon. The People’s Bank of China will print about 500 billion yuan, which works out to about $81 billion. They will hand out the money to the five largest banks in China. That money will eventually make its way into the financial markets. Considering the cost of printing 500 billion yuan…, US producer prices were flat in August. The Labor Department said falling gasoline and food prices restrained its producer price index for final demand last month. The …

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