Financial Review

Halftime Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-30-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSStocks bounce back but not all the way. Jobless claims up. Puerto Rican default imminent. Big banks pass test and dish out buybacks. Swipe this Visa and MC. Mondelez Hershey – no kisses. Change your password. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-30-2016

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Like It Never Happened

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-29-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSStocks rally for a second day. Euro Commission meets. Scots beg forgiveness. Stress tests. GE no longer a threat. Consumer spending up. Pending home sales down. Puerto Rico will default. Coke GMO in Vermont. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-29-2016

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Dead Cat Bounce

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-28-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSStocks bounce. Brexit will be a nasty divorce. UK credit cut. Eurobank fallout starts in Italy. US GDP revised higher. House prices higher. Save $20 billion at the pump. VW must pay. Sheraton in Cuba. Google antitrust. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-28-2016

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Mind the Gap

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-22-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSBrexit vote manana. Yellen returns to Capitol Hill. Home sales up. The rent is too high. Puerto Rico sued before pending default. Tesla buys SolarCity. Innovation versus buybacks. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-22-2016

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Thankyou

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-13-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Waiting on the FOMC and then a Brexit vote. Supremes say no fresh start for Puerto Rico. Microsoft gets LinkedIn. Apple announced new stuff, meh. Theranos kaput. Goldman Sachs’ continuing criminal enterprise. AT&T and Citi fight over thank you. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-13-2016

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Wide-Ranging

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-02-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSS&P 2100. ECB 0%. OPEC no change. American death rate up. CFPB cracks down on payday usury. Wide-ranging billionaires. The rise of the drones. And patents galore. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-02-2016

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Puerto Rico Screwed

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-02-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSPuerto Rico defaults; TTIP leaks; Ultra, Midstates, and Sports Authority go BK; Sell in May and take a vacation. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-02-2016

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Bad Medicine

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-06-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSTreasury kills the Pfizer–Allergan inversion, new rules for fiduciaries, more on the Panama Papers, and Puerto Rico fights back.

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Fed Jawbones Hawkish

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-24-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSThe Fed talks hawkish, numbers don’t add up, Argentina skates, Puerto Rico under new colonial rule.

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Equally Divided

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-22-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSWall Street’s muted response to terrorism, FBI to Apple – never mind, Google in the cloud, and the Supremes are equally divided.

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Risk Off

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-11-2016_2_.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-11-2016 DOW – 254 = 15,660 SPX – 22 = 1829 NAS – 16 = 4266 10 Y – .06 = 1.64% OIL – .17 = 27.28 GOLD It’s a bad day for global stock markets.  Markets in Hong Kong opened for the first time this week and had their worst start to a lunar new year since 1994, falling 3.9 percent, adding to a 12% plunge since the beginning of the year. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index lost 2.2 percent. The Europe Stoxx 600 dropped 3.6%.   In her testimony to Congress yesterday, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen was not certain whether she had the legal authority to cut rates into negative territory. Yellen on Wednesday said the crucial question confronting the Fed was whether the domestic economy is strong enough to keep growing modestly even as the global economy struggles. This is the question.   Today, Yellen headed over to the Senate Finance Committee and repeated her testimony from yesterday before opening it up for questions. Yellen said the cause of the market selloff is “not mainly our policy,” noting that the market was tranquil in the immediate aftermath of the increase in interest rates in mid-December. She doesn’t think the Fed will cut rates anytime soon. The key for the central bank is whether the negative shocks hitting the economy persist, Yellen said. The central bank will know more in …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Honey for Bears

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-08-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-08-2016 DOW – 177 = 16,027 SPX – 26 = 1853 NAS – 79 = 4283 10 Y – .11 = 1.74% OIL – .80 = 30.09 GOLD + 15.50 = 1190.00   This was just an ugly session from the start. The Dow opened about 200 points down and then trickled lower; at one point down more than 300 points. The S&P 500 index broke down through the key level of support at 1860 that I warned you about in January and again last week, taking out the August 2015 lows and the October 2014 lows. The S&P 500 not only took out support from January, but now we look to minor support at 1815, and then, well there isn’t really any support. In other words, the charts look very dangerous here.   And if you prefer fundamentals over technicals; this is what FactSet had to say in its recent report: “For Q4 2015, the blended earnings decline is -3.8%. If the index reports a decline in earnings for Q4, it will mark the first time the index has seen three consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines in earnings since Q1 2009 through Q3 2009.” The difference this time versus 2009 is that valuations are much higher. FactSet data show expectations for first-quarter per-share earnings have collapsed to a decline of 5.5% as of today. Back in September, that forecast …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Sub Zero

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-29-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-29-2016 DOW + 396 = 16,466 SPX + 46 = 1940 NAS + 107 = 4613 10 Y  – .05 = 1.93% OIL + .46 = 33.68 GOLD + 2.80 = 1118.80 SILV + .02 = 14.34   It’s Friday and also the last trading day of the month. For the week, the Dow gained 2.3%, the S&P added 1.7% and the Nasdaq increased 0.5%. That left the Dow down 5.5% for the month, or a loss of 959 points. The Nasdaq lost 7.9%, or 394 points in January, its largest monthly loss since May 2010. The S&P was down 103 points, or 5%, although at one point last week the S&P was down 11% since the start of the year. An index of US Treasury bonds returned 1.8% for January, which has been the best month of the year for bonds, at least over the past few years. The yield on the 10 year note dropped 24 basis points for the month. Gold and silver shared the safe haven spotlight with Treasuries. Gold gain $58.60, or 6% for the month. Silver added 53-cents or 3.8%, year-to-date. The dollar has gained just over 1% year-to-date, but is still below November highs. Even with today’s gain, oil closed out the month of January with a loss of $3.37 or 9%.     The U.S. economy expanded at a slower …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Tug of War

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-19-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-19-2016 DOW + 27 = 16,016 SPX + 1 = 1881 NAS – 11 = 4476 10 Y un 2.04% OIL – 1.13 = 28.29 GOLD – 1.30 = 1088.50   Just a reminder that last Friday saw the Dow drop 390 and the S&P too down 41, taking out the August lows of 1867 with an intra-day low of 1857. This morning Wall Street started the session with a bounce, but it didn’t hold; in the afternoon the major averages turned negative; the S&P went back down to test support at 1865. We are seeing an important level of support at 1857 to 1867 on the S&P. We told you on Friday that would need to see confirmation in the form of a close below 1867. It did not happen today. The Nasdaq Composite did close below the September low of 4487. The Dow Industrials are still above the August lows off 15,666. You don’t even want to look at charts of the Russell 2000 index or the Dow Transports; they are just ugly.   And then if you move away from Wall Street, the economy doesn’t look too bad: 70 consecutive months of job growth, the unemployment rate at 5%, GDP growth probably around 2% to 2.5% (not great but compared to the rest of the world it looks decent), oil prices falling, which should be …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

The Question

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-05-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-05-2016   DOW + 9 = 17,158 SPX + 4 = 2016 NAS – 11 = 4891 10 Y un= 2.25% OIL – .87 = 35.89 GOLD + 3.10 = 1078.50 The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its greatest opening-day loss since 2008 yesterday. Today might be considered a tepid recovery, or maybe just a reminder that the world did not end with the change of the calendar.   China moved to shore up shaky investor sentiment today following an equities selloff that rocked global financial markets on revived concerns about the country’s economic slowdown. China’s CSI 300 Index initially dropped 2%, but a late session rally erased losses and the index closed 0.3 percent. State-controlled funds bought equities and the securities regulator signaled that a selling ban for major investors which was due to expire this week may be extended. The People’s Bank of China pumped nearly $20 billion into the economy, the largest amount since September. The yuan rebounded from a five-year low.  The Nikkei 225-share index in Japan finished the day 0.4 percent lower. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong closed 0.7 percent down. European stocks rose, with the FTSE 100 in London up 0.7 percent for the day. The Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 0.4 percent.   Kuwait recalled its ambassador from Iran. The announcement is the latest in an unfolding regional row that escalated with Saudi Arabia’s execution of a Shiite …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Tail of the Put

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-30-2015 DOW – 117 = 17,603 SPX – 15 =  2063 NAS – 42 = 5065 10 Y – .01 = 2.30% OIL – 1.07 = 36.80 GOLD – 7.90 = 1062.10 I was away on vacation on December 16th when the Fed raised interest rates, so I want to start today by going back and taking a look at what that really means and how it might affect the economy and the markets moving into the New Year. First, let’s be clear; the Fed did not raise rates on December 16th; the Fed raised their target for the fed funds rate, which is the rate at which banks lend to each other.  That’s a technicality. The Fed will buy and sell securities to increase the cost of borrowing money across the banking system. So money is becoming more expensive for all financial institutions. And the banks and financial institutions then pass along those cost to their customers in the form of higher interest rates. Short-term and long-term rates will move higher, at least in theory, but in reality, they don’t always move higher in lockstep.   And the dollar should get even stronger as rates move higher on Treasuries and corporate bonds. The reason is simple; if you are a foreign investor and you want to buy debt that offers a higher rate you first have to …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

See Opportunities

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-01-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-01-2015 DOW + 168 = 17,888 SPX + 22 = 2102 NAS + 47 = 5156 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.15% OIL un 41.65 GOLD + 4.30 = 1069.80 SILV + .10 = 14.27   More than 180 nations are gathered in Paris to discuss a far-reaching agreement to reduce global carbon emissions. The emerging deal would require wealthy countries, including the U.S., to cut their own pollution while helping poorer countries shift from dependency on fossil fuels and mitigate the effects of climate change. President Obama held a news conference today in Paris at the U.N. global climate summit; Obama said the world needs an enduring framework for addressing climate change and that he would seek an agreement that would boost economies as well as help the planet’s environment. President Obama said the U.S. will meet commitments to help finance developing nations’ efforts to reduce carbon pollution, challenging congressional Republicans who have fought most of his environmental policies.   Some people look at the call for reducing carbon emissions and only see expenses, while others see opportunities. The number of annual patents for green energy has increased fivefold since 2002 and this year is on track to break another record after eight consecutive increases. Most patents in 2015 have been for solar technologies, 586 granted in the first half of the year; followed by fuel cells, electric vehicles, …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

The Drops Missed Main Street

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-02-2015 DOW + 165 = 17,828 SPX + 24 = 2104 NAS + 73 = 5127 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.19% OIL – .47 = 46.12 GOLD – 9.00 = 1133.70 SILV – .20  = 15.44   Today’s gains follow the best monthly performance of the major indexes in four years in October. The Nasdaq 100 closed at its highest level in more than 15 years. The S&P is up nearly 13% since hitting its lowest level for the year in August.   Monday morning brought merger news, later in the week we’ll hear from Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, delivering testimony to the House Financial Services Committee on why the Fed doesn’t have a vice chairman for regulation; a post created 5 years ago, yet the position was never filled. Also, on Friday we’ll get the monthly jobs report from the Labor Department. Wall Street is expecting an increase of 180,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to remain flat at 5.1%.   Visa said would buy former subsidiary Visa Europe Ltd in a deal valued at up to $23 billion. Visa and Visa Europe, a cooperative of European banks with more than 500 million cards, were part of a global bank-owned network until 2007. Most of the units merged to form Visa, which went public in 2008, leaving Visa Europe as a separate entity.   Shire …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Easy to Spot Winners

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-22-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-22-2015 DOW + 320 = 17,489 SPX + 33 = 2052 NAS + 79 = 4920 10 YR YLD un = 2.03% OIL + .18 = 45.38 GOLD – .80 = 1166.90 SILV + .16 = 15.94     European Central Bank policymakers are meeting today in Malta. ECB President Mario Draghi announced no change to interest rates or asset purchases, but he warned that emerging markets are hurting Eurozone growth prospects, and he hinted the central bank may lower the deposit rate further or expand its quantitative easing at its December meeting. Markets just love an accommodative central bank.   The European Economics Commission says “Greece has done a certain number of reforms, and we are going to give them money, €3 billion-euro in all,” and in the course of November, December, the commission will deal with the issue of the recapitalization of Greek banks and Greek debt.”     Chinese stocks recovered today as the People’s Bank of China added liquidity to the market. After the close on Wednesday, the PBOC injected $16.6 billion into 11 financial institutions via medium-term lending facilities. Meanwhile, the government’s anti-corruption campaign continues with a crackdown on golf, considered a lavish extravagance. Or in my case, cruel punishment.   New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits inched up by 3,000 to 259,000 in the week ended Oct. 17. This is the first gain after …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Zilch COLA

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-15-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-15-2015 DOW + 217 = 17,141 SPX + 29 = 2023 NAS + 87 = 4870 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.20% OIL + .28 = 46.92 GOLD – .90 = 1184.40 SILV un = 16.22   The consumer price index, or prices at the retail level, declined by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in September. Over the past 12 months inflation at the consumer level has shown zero increase. Inflation has fallen sharply over the past year mainly because of lower gasoline prices. The cost of gasoline fell 9% in September. The cost of food, however, rose 0.4% owing largely to higher prices for dairy, fruits and vegetables. Stripping out food and energy, the core CPI rose 0.2%. Core prices are up 1.9% over the past 12 months. Separately, the Energy Information Administration reports crude inventories rose by 7.6 million barrels in the last week, compared with analysts’ expectations for an increase of 2.8 million barrels.   Americans who collect Social Security won’t get an increase in their monthly checks in 2016. Annual increases in Social Security are made every year based on changes in a component of the consumer price index known as CPI-W. That index fell 0.4% in the period used by the government to calculate the annual increase in cost-of-living adjustments.   The CPI-W looks at prices for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers; …

READ MORE →