Financial Review

See Opportunities

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-01-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-01-2015 DOW + 168 = 17,888 SPX + 22 = 2102 NAS + 47 = 5156 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.15% OIL un 41.65 GOLD + 4.30 = 1069.80 SILV + .10 = 14.27   More than 180 nations are gathered in Paris to discuss a far-reaching agreement to reduce global carbon emissions. The emerging deal would require wealthy countries, including the U.S., to cut their own pollution while helping poorer countries shift from dependency on fossil fuels and mitigate the effects of climate change. President Obama held a news conference today in Paris at the U.N. global climate summit; Obama said the world needs an enduring framework for addressing climate change and that he would seek an agreement that would boost economies as well as help the planet’s environment. President Obama said the U.S. will meet commitments to help finance developing nations’ efforts to reduce carbon pollution, challenging congressional Republicans who have fought most of his environmental policies.   Some people look at the call for reducing carbon emissions and only see expenses, while others see opportunities. The number of annual patents for green energy has increased fivefold since 2002 and this year is on track to break another record after eight consecutive increases. Most patents in 2015 have been for solar technologies, 586 granted in the first half of the year; followed by fuel cells, electric vehicles, and …

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Financial Review

The Drops Missed Main Street

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-02-2015 DOW + 165 = 17,828 SPX + 24 = 2104 NAS + 73 = 5127 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.19% OIL – .47 = 46.12 GOLD – 9.00 = 1133.70 SILV – .20  = 15.44   Today’s gains follow the best monthly performance of the major indexes in four years in October. The Nasdaq 100 closed at its highest level in more than 15 years. The S&P is up nearly 13% since hitting its lowest level for the year in August.   Monday morning brought merger news, later in the week we’ll hear from Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, delivering testimony to the House Financial Services Committee on why the Fed doesn’t have a vice chairman for regulation; a post created 5 years ago, yet the position was never filled. Also, on Friday we’ll get the monthly jobs report from the Labor Department. Wall Street is expecting an increase of 180,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to remain flat at 5.1%.   Visa said would buy former subsidiary Visa Europe Ltd in a deal valued at up to $23 billion. Visa and Visa Europe, a cooperative of European banks with more than 500 million cards, were part of a global bank-owned network until 2007. Most of the units merged to form Visa, which went public in 2008, leaving Visa Europe as a separate entity.   Shire Plc …

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Financial Review

Easy to Spot Winners

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-22-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-22-2015 DOW + 320 = 17,489 SPX + 33 = 2052 NAS + 79 = 4920 10 YR YLD un = 2.03% OIL + .18 = 45.38 GOLD – .80 = 1166.90 SILV + .16 = 15.94     European Central Bank policymakers are meeting today in Malta. ECB President Mario Draghi announced no change to interest rates or asset purchases, but he warned that emerging markets are hurting Eurozone growth prospects, and he hinted the central bank may lower the deposit rate further or expand its quantitative easing at its December meeting. Markets just love an accommodative central bank.   The European Economics Commission says “Greece has done a certain number of reforms, and we are going to give them money, €3 billion-euro in all,” and in the course of November, December, the commission will deal with the issue of the recapitalization of Greek banks and Greek debt.”     Chinese stocks recovered today as the People’s Bank of China added liquidity to the market. After the close on Wednesday, the PBOC injected $16.6 billion into 11 financial institutions via medium-term lending facilities. Meanwhile, the government’s anti-corruption campaign continues with a crackdown on golf, considered a lavish extravagance. Or in my case, cruel punishment.   New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits inched up by 3,000 to 259,000 in the week ended Oct. 17. This is the first gain after two …

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Financial Review

Zilch COLA

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-15-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-15-2015 DOW + 217 = 17,141 SPX + 29 = 2023 NAS + 87 = 4870 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.20% OIL + .28 = 46.92 GOLD – .90 = 1184.40 SILV un = 16.22   The consumer price index, or prices at the retail level, declined by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in September. Over the past 12 months inflation at the consumer level has shown zero increase. Inflation has fallen sharply over the past year mainly because of lower gasoline prices. The cost of gasoline fell 9% in September. The cost of food, however, rose 0.4% owing largely to higher prices for dairy, fruits and vegetables. Stripping out food and energy, the core CPI rose 0.2%. Core prices are up 1.9% over the past 12 months. Separately, the Energy Information Administration reports crude inventories rose by 7.6 million barrels in the last week, compared with analysts’ expectations for an increase of 2.8 million barrels.   Americans who collect Social Security won’t get an increase in their monthly checks in 2016. Annual increases in Social Security are made every year based on changes in a component of the consumer price index known as CPI-W. That index fell 0.4% in the period used by the government to calculate the annual increase in cost-of-living adjustments.   The CPI-W looks at prices for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers; this …

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Financial Review

Strange Days

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-12-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-12-2015 DOW – 0.33 = 17,402 SPX + 1 = 2086 NAS + 7 = 5044 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.13% OIL + .23 = 43.31 GOLD + 16.80 = 1126.80 SILV + .18 = 15.64   Strange days indeed. While the closing numbers paint a picture of a calm day on Wall Street, it was anything but. The Dow Industrial Average started the session deep in the red; with a session low of a 277 point loss. And then it started clawing higher, briefly going positive for the day. US stocks gapped lower on the open following the lead of global stocks, Asian currencies, commodities and government bond yields were all heading south after China allowed the yuan to fall sharply for a second day, triggering concerns over the country’s economic health. The currency is down 4% over the last two days. The IMF has offered a cautious endorsement of the new pricing regime – which lets the market play a greater role in setting the value of the currency – in a step that may help Beijing win reserve currency status later this year. Late in the day, the Chinese government reportedly stepped in to prop up the yuan. And once again the shorts were shredded.   The number of available jobs fell in June, even as companies hired more. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, …

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Financial Review

Summer Stall

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-04-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review By Sinclair Noe DOW – 47 = 17,550 SPX – 4 = 2093 NAS – 9 = 5105 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.21% OIL + .80 = 45.97 GOLD + 1.40 = 1088.50 SILV + .08 = 14.68   Corelogic reports home prices rose 1.7% in June, and nationwide home prices including distressed sales, increased by 6.5% over the past 12 months. Fifteen states and the District of Columbia were the strongest since the series began in 1976. Only four states – Massachusetts, Connecticut, Louisiana and Mississippi – saw year-over-year declines.   Orders for goods produced in US factories rose 1.8% in June. Orders for durable goods, products meant to last at least three years, advanced 3.4% in June. Orders for nondurable goods edged up 0.4%.Factory activity has been stymied by a strong dollar and spending cuts in the energy sector after last year’s sharp plunge in crude oil prices. Tepid global demand also has weighed on manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of the domestic economy.   Greece expects to wrap up its bailout deal with international creditors by Aug. 18, with the drafting of the agreement to begin Wednesday. The ongoing talks are reaching the end of the first phase, with the second phase to include the details of the final deal. The Greek stock market reopened yesterday, after being shut down for 5 weeks; yesterday the Athens Stock Exchange index closed …

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Financial Review

Cleaning Up

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-03-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 91 = 17,598 SPX – 5 = 2098 NAS – 12 = 5115 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.15% OIL – 1.95 = 45.17 GOLD – 9.10 = 1087.10 SILV – .30 = 14.59   This is going to be an extremely busy week. We still have a third of S&P 500 companies to report earnings. There’s also going to be a plethora of economic activity culminating in the Friday jobs report for July. Oil prices hit a six month low. It’s not just oil. Commodities prices across the board are falling thanks to slowing global demand and a rising dollar. All of this makes it very unlikely we’ll see a big pickup in inflation any time soon.   The Athens Stock Exchange reopened today and it was ugly. The ASE Stock Index dropped 23% after being closed for five weeks, with banking shares down by as much as 30%. The index managed to recover from session lows but still closed down 16%. While local traders are able to buy stocks, bonds, derivatives and warrants under certain conditions, international investors don’t face any restrictions, as long as they were active in the markets before they were shuttered.   The selloff shows the scale of the crisis still facing Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras as he negotiates a third bailout with creditors after six months that have put unprecedented strain on the Greek …

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Financial Review

Solid Guesses

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-29-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 121 = 17,751 SPX + 15 = 2108 NAS + 22 = 5111 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.28% OIL + .91 = 48.89 GOLD + 1.20 = 1097.70 SILV + .13 = 14.91   The Federal Reserve FOMC meeting wrapped up earlier today. They issued a statement but there was no press conference. The Fed did not change monetary policy; no surprise, nobody expected a change from this meeting. The next FOMC meeting is in September and we might see changes then, or maybe December. There really weren’t many clues in the statement. There were a few subtle changes in wording of the statement; specifically on jobs, the Fed said: “The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year.” “Solid job gains” is a fairly strong phrase for the Fed. No indication of slack in the labor market.   The actual decision to raise rates will come when the Fed sees “some” further improvement in the labor market. The word “some” was new. What does “some” mean? You can give it whatever meaning you want but I think it means the labor market is headed in the right direction and as long as it stays on the tracks and continues to make …

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Financial Review

Step 9

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-28-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 189 = 17,630 SPX + 25 =  2093 NAS + 49 = 5089 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.25% OIL + .59 = 47.98 GOLD + 1.00 = 1096.50 SILV + .14 = 14.79   The Federal Reserve FOMC met today. They will meet again tomorrow and then they will issue a statement.  Investors are not expecting any major decisions this week, but they will be looking for hints on the Fed’s timing for possible future movements. While consensus for a rate rise is leaning towards September, the wild card is now China. A growing number of market watchers are suggesting that, before the year is out, two interest rate hikes rather than just one could be on the cards. In the Treasury market, futures contracts suggested that investors were making the same mistake they made at the outset of the last three major tightening cycles, by underestimating the amount the federal funds rate will be raised. The implied rate on September 2016 contracts is 0.8 percent, while many forecasts are looking at 1.5 percent to 2 percent.     Chinese shares whip-sawed between gains and losses today, as Beijing renewed its pledge to prop up an equities market. The 144 Chinese companies with primary stock listings in the US have erased nearly $40 billion in paper wealth since the Shanghai Composite peaked in mid-June; a 30% drop. After a plunge …

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Financial Review

Glitch/Print

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 163 = 17,568 SPX – 22 = 2079 NAS – 57 = 5088 10 YR YLD un 2.27% OIL – .31 = 48.14 GOLD + 9.10 = 1100.50 SILV + .08 = 14.84   Well, this turned out to be an ugly week. The Dow lost 600 points from the high a week ago. The Dow lost 2.8% on the week, dropping below its 200 day moving average. The S&P lost 2.1%; Nasdaq down 2.2%. The Russell 3000 was down 3.1% for the week. Amazon gave back about half of yesterday’s gain. Crude oil hit a 4-month low.   And if you are not quite sure what to make of the markets, that is understandable; they aren’t going up and they aren’t going down, we are in a sideways market; this might be the mother of all sideways markets. The Dow is in slightly negative territory year to date. The Dow has moved on either side of breakeven 21 times so far this year. According to research from Bespoke Investment, no other year has been so fickle, the closest being the 20 times the blue chip index swung in both 1934 and 1994. The S&P 500 went through the first half of the year without moving more than 3.5 percent in either direction.   Hedge funds are holding the first ever bet on a decline in gold prices …

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