Financial Review

Glitch/Print

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 163 = 17,568 SPX – 22 = 2079 NAS – 57 = 5088 10 YR YLD un 2.27% OIL – .31 = 48.14 GOLD + 9.10 = 1100.50 SILV + .08 = 14.84   Well, this turned out to be an ugly week. The Dow lost 600 points from the high a week ago. The Dow lost 2.8% on the week, dropping below its 200 day moving average. The S&P lost 2.1%; Nasdaq down 2.2%. The Russell 3000 was down 3.1% for the week. Amazon gave back about half of yesterday’s gain. Crude oil hit a 4-month low.   And if you are not quite sure what to make of the markets, that is understandable; they aren’t going up and they aren’t going down, we are in a sideways market; this might be the mother of all sideways markets. The Dow is in slightly negative territory year to date. The Dow has moved on either side of breakeven 21 times so far this year. According to research from Bespoke Investment, no other year has been so fickle, the closest being the 20 times the blue chip index swung in both 1934 and 1994. The S&P 500 went through the first half of the year without moving more than 3.5 percent in either direction.   Hedge funds are holding the first ever bet on a decline in gold prices …

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Financial Review

Chips and Salsa

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-16-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:03 — 6.0MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 70 = 18,120 SPX + 16 = 2124 NAS + 64 = 5163 10 YR YLD un = 2.35% OIL + .13 = 51.04 GOLD – 4.30 = 1145.60 SILV – .12 = 15.08   The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record high, taking out the old record from last month. After hours of debate, Greek lawmakers passed a bailout agreement late last night. Eurozone finance ministers agreed in principle to extend a €7 billion-euro bridge loan to Greece. The loan would allow Greece to pay some of its outstanding bills, meet a scheduled repayment to the ECB next week and open the door to securing a third bailout package. Up next: the German Bundestag will vote on Friday whether or not to approve the new rescue, however, talks over securing a new €86B bailout are likely to last for another four weeks.  European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he views the country’s place in the euro as secure. Greek banks are still closed for the time being.   Yesterday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said once again that the Fed is likely to raise interest rates at some point in 2015. Yellen told the House Financial Services Committee that the first hike since 2006 “will signal how much progress the economy has made in healing from the trauma of the financial crisis.” Today, Yellen repeated her semi-annual testimony to the …

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Financial Review

Sheepish Algorithms

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-14-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 75 = 18,053 SPX + 9 = 2108 NAS + 33 = 5104 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.40% OIL + .84 = 53.04 GOLD – 2.70 = 1155.80 SILV – .13 = 15.48   The stock market posted its first 4-day winning streak since January. The S&P 500 last week fell as much as 4 percent from its all-time high, and has since recovered to trade within 1 percent of its record set in May. The S&P 500 and the Dow are up 3 percent over four sessions, while the Nasdaq Composite has added 4 percent. The United States and other world powers reached an agreement with Iran that calls for limits on Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting economic sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy, enabling the oil-rich nation to ramp up its energy exports, access international finance and open the doors to global investors. Full implementation of the agreement will likely take months and is contingent on the pace at which Iran meets its obligations. The deal will keep Iran from producing enough material for an atomic weapon for at least 10 years and impose provisions for inspections of Iranian facilities, including military sites.   Oil prices initially dropped when the Iran deal was announced, but then prices climbed higher. The oil markets were not surprised by the news announcement, and a deal …

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Financial Review

Burn the Doors

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-13-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 217 = 17,977 SPX + 22 = 2099 NAS + 73 = 5071 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.43% OIL – .35 = 51.85 GOLD – 5.30 = 1158.50 SILV – .12 = 15.60   Greece and Eurozone creditors reached a tentative agreement that might unlock about $95 billion in new aid to Greece in exchange for new tough concessions by the Athens government, which included reforms to the pension system, higher taxes, and privatization. However, the €85 billion-euro deal is not official until the Greek parliament on Wednesday passes the deal; and that might be a tough ask given the “no” vote in the recent referendum. Before we get to a Wednesday vote in Athens, there are several Eurozone finance ministers that will have to approve a €12 billion-euro package of short-term bridge financing, to allow the Greek banks to reopen. If the new deal is approved, the bank “holiday” could be lifted as soon as Thursday. And then after that, the Euro Union countries would have to sign off on a deal, unanimously. So, it’s a very complicated deal with considerable risk. Wall Street has never been good at reading the fine print, and stocks moved higher today on the idea that the never-ending negotiations over Greek debt might finally be ending, when in fact, they are just kicking into another gear.   And then …

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Financial Review

Unsustainable

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-07-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 93 = 17,776 SPX + 12 = 2081 NAS + 5 = 4997 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.23% OIL + .14 = 52.67 GOLD – 15.50 = 1155.30 SILV – .70 = 15.15   These are interesting times. There is the situation in Greece; the Chinese equity markets are suffering a bit of a meltdown; Puerto Rico has fallen into a black hole of debt; negotiations are underway with Iran; and the cherry on top – earnings season starts tomorrow. Traders might be forgiven if they were a feeling a little jittery. This morning the stock market headed into triple digit negative territory, (the Dow was down 200 points earlier) only to get an afternoon jolt of good news; namely, there may be a deal to be had with Greece. So, let’s dig in there.   Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is in Brussels for an emergency Eurozone summit. Over the weekend, Greeks overwhelmingly voted to reject more austerity. Actually, they voted on a debt proposal that is no longer under consideration, but figuratively they voted against austerity. Greek banks remain closed and ATMs are reportedly running out of cash. The European Central Bank has maintained its emergency loan cap for Greek banks. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said there was no basis for reopening negotiations with Athens. European leaders have all made clear the onus is …

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Financial Review

The Greek Unknown

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-01-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 138 = 17,757 SPX + 14 = 2077 NAS + 26 = 5013 10 YR YLD + .09 = 2.42% OIL – .02 = 56.94 GOLD – 4.30 = 1169.30 SILV – .12 = 15.65   Let’s start today with some economic data. ADP reports private-sector hiring picked up in June, as employers added 237,000 jobs. The monthly jobs report from the Labor Department will be released tomorrow; it includes private sector plus government jobs. The consensus guestimate is for about 225,000 new jobs last month.   Construction spending rose 0.8% in May to a seasonally adjusted $1.04 trillion. Spending rose 0.3% for residential projects, and 1.5% for nonresidential projects. The Commerce Department revised April’s result to 2.1%.   Manufacturers grew in June at the fastest rate since the start of 2015. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index rose to 53.5% last month from 52.8% in May, matching its highest level of this year. Readings over 50% indicate more companies are expanding instead of shrinking. The employment gauge jumped 3.8 points to 55.5%. The ISM’s new-orders index edged up to 56.0% from 55.8%.   The second and final Markit reading of U.S. manufacturing conditions in June was revised up to 53.6 from a preliminary 53.4, but the index was still at its lowest level since October 2013.   Overnight, Greece defaulted on its $1.8 billion debt …

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Financial Review

Spend Your Time Wisely

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 23 = 17,619 SPX + 5 = 2063 NAS + 28 = 4986 10 YR YLD un = 2.33% OIL + 1.14 = 59.47 GOLD – 7.50 = 1173.60 SILV – .09 = 15.77   Today marks the end of the second quarter; we are halfway through the year. The stock market has been trading in an extremely tight range. After a weak January and a rebound in February, the major indices have moved sideways for 4 months. The Dow Industrials are down 204 points for the first half; the Nasdaq Composite is up 250 points for the first six months; the S&P 500 gained 5 points year to date. The S&P 500 is in the tightest trading range for the first half of a year in more than 2 decades. At some point it will break up or break down; as it is 2015 marks the worst first half of a year for the S&P 500 since 2010.   For the month of June, the Dow fell 2.2 percent, the S&P 500 fell 2.1 percent and the Nasdaq fell 1.6 percent. For the second quarter, the Dow fell 0.9 percent, the S&P 500 fell 0.2 percent. For the Dow and the S&P, that snaps a string of 9 consecutive quarters of gains. The Nasdaq rose 1.8 percent in its tenth straight quarterly advance. During the quarter, the Nasdaq hit its first records since the …

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Financial Review

Pick Your Poison

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-29-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 350 = 17,596 SPX – 43 = 2057 NAS – 122 = 4958 10 YR YLD – .15 = 2.33% OIL – 1.30 = 58.33 GOLD + 5.90 = 1181.10 SILV + .01 = 15.86   Late Friday, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called for a July 5 referendum on whether to accept the latest offer from Greece’s creditors. That meant that Greece would not pay $1.8 billion to the Troika due tomorrow. The European Central Bank responded by halting emergency lending to Greek banks.  With emergency aid to the country frozen, Athens has imposed capital controls to halt bank runs and confirmed that the country’s banks would remain shut for six working days; Greek banks are closed and the Greek stock market is closed, possibly until the July 5 referendum. ATM withdrawals are being capped at €60-euro-per-day.   We’ve been watching the problems in Greece for a long time. A few years ago, we knew Greece had a debt problem; that was back when they were lumped together with Portugal, Italy, Ireland, and Spain. They were called the PIIGS. The Troika of the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the European Monetary Union, decided to crack down on the PIIGS; prescribing a big dose of austerity; the cure has been debilitating. Spain is dealing with 22% unemployment, Italy with 12.4% joblessness, Portugal at 13% (with …

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Uncategorized

Thursday, February 06, 2014 – Waiting on the Friday Jobs Report

Waiting on the Friday Jobs Report by Sinclair Noe DOW + 188 = 15,628SPX + 21 = 1773NAS + 45 = 405710 YR YLD + .04 = 2.70%OIL + .57 = 97.95GOLD + .20 = 1258.80SILV + .05 = 20.05 The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 20,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 331,000. There have been some interesting reports this past week on jobs, including the controversial research from the CBO and the other from the New York Fed. Competition for jobs is still fierce. Although it varies with the company and the job, on average 250 resumes are received for each corporate job opening. In addition, out of every 1000 people who view an online job posting, 100 people will apply, 4 – 6 will be selected for an interview, 1 – 3 will be invited for a final interview, 1 will be offered the job, and 80% of those who get a job offer accept it. The Wall Street Journal shows how the very backbone of the labor market, men in their prime (for measurement purposes, 25 to 54), are out of work to an unprecedented degree. More than one in six men ages 25 to 54, prime working years, don’t have jobs—a total of 10.4 million. Some are looking for jobs; many aren’t. Some had jobs that went overseas or were lost to technology. Some refuse to uproot for …

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