Financial Review

Closing In

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-29-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Fed minutes show no preset course. Michael Cohen flips. Mueller closes in. G20 – Putin meets MbS. Trump meets Xi. Nothing gets resolved. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-29-2018

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Financial Review

Earning Season and Crazy Season

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-19-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Earnings continue to pour in hot. Comcast passes on 21st Century Fox. Trade war tensions. Trump influences Fed. Invites Putin to White House. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-19-2018

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Financial Review

Friday the 13th

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-13-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Nasdaq record; S&P tops 2800. JPMorgan, Citi, and Wells Fargo post earning: good, bad, ugly. Amazon eyes networking; next week – Prime. Mueller indicts 12 Russian officers, days before Trump-Putin summit. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-13-2018

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Financial Review

 #Panama Papers

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-04-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSThe “Panama Papers” are being called the largest ever leak of secret data, and articles about the offshore bank accounts of the ultra-rich worldwide — developed by a global consortium of journalists — they implicate a Panamanian law firm, Mossack Fonseca, with setting up shell corporations to evade taxes. Some major politicians and business people are named or linked to the scams.

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Financial Review

Canoe Trips on Mars

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-28-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-28-2015   DOW – 312 = 16,001 SPX – 49 = 1881 NAS – 142 = 4543 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.09% OIL – .03 = 44.40 GOLD – 14.20 = 1133.10 SILV – .53 = 14.70   Well, this was just ugly. All three major indices traded in correction territory today or more than 10 percent below their 52-week highs. For the Nasdaq Composite, the 50 day moving average crossed the 200 day moving average, forming a pattern that goes by the catchy name “death cross”. The Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF closed down 6.3%, following a 5% drop on Friday.   Shares in mining and trading company Glencore fell almost 30 percent and closed at a record low, wiping out more than $5 billion in market valuation. The fall followed publication of a note by analysts at investment bank Investec which raised doubts about Glencore’s valuation if spot metal prices do not improve. The note pointed to high debt levels and a need for deeper restructuring. The analysts wrote: “If major commodity prices remain at current levels, our analysis implies that, in the absence of substantial restructuring, nearly all the equity value of both Glencore and Anglo American could evaporate.” Glencore, a Swiss based company, has said it will suspend dividends, sell assets and raise cash with a $2.5 billion share placement, among other measures, to cut its …

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Financial Review

What Happens When We Run Dry

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-16-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:19 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 228 = 17,977 SPX + 27 = 2081 NAS + 57 = 4929 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.10% OIL – 1.12 = 43.88 GOLD – 4.30 = 1155.30 SILV – .01 = 15.73   Halfway through March, the S&P 500 is almost exactly flat year to date after a January tumble and February recovery, as we head into a Federal Reserve FOMC policy meeting later this week. Halfway through March a year ago, that was exactly the same situation: US stocks flat for the year directly ahead of the March Fed meeting, when the Fed’s intent to slowly tighten up policy was affirmed. It is widely expected that Fed policy setters will remove the word “patient” from their statement, opening the door for a rate increase in June.   The Fed has kept its benchmark lending rate near zero for more than six years, underpinning a strong rally in stocks. Wall Street loves to feed at the zero interest rate trough. Wall Street has a history of whining about tighter monetary policy; remember the “taper tantrum”, and so today’s gains feel like a sucker’s rally. Or the Fed could surprise us and they could very well remain patient. Crude fell for a fifth day, dropping to its lowest intraday price since March 2009. Crude oil closed $43.88 a barrel, closely following the IEA’s prediction on Friday …

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Financial Review

Up, Down – Take Your Pick

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-04-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 6 = 17,673 SPX – 8 = 2041 NAS – 11 = 4716 10 YR YLD + .02 = 1.80% OIL – 4.49 = 48.56 GOLD + 8.80 = 1269.90 SILV + .06 = 17.43   ADP reports private-sector employment gains slowed in January as employers added 213,000 jobs. ADP revised December’s gain to 253,000 from a prior estimate of 241,000. The non-farm payroll report (that’s the government’s big monthly jobs report) comes out Friday morning; it is expected the economy added about 245,000 jobs in January, down from 252,000 in December.   The Institute for Supply Management said its nonmanufacturing index edged up to 56.7% in January from 56.5% in December. Readings over 50% signal that more businesses are expanding instead of contracting. The good news is that new orders remained very healthy. The index measuring fresh demand rose a few ticks to 59.5% and remained close to a post-recession high. On the downside, the employment gauge fell 4.1 points to 51.6%, marking the lowest level in 11 months. It was also the second worst reading in 20 months. So, on the jobs front, we should still see gains, just not as strong as the past few months.   Gallup’s Job Creation Index came in at plus 28 for the month of January. This is nearly identical to the plus 27 found in December, and just below …

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Financial Review

Some Perspective on the Markets

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-16-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 111 = 17,068 SPX – 16 = 1972 NAS – 57 = 4547 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.07% OIL – .58 = 55.33 GOLD + 1.50 = 1196.00 SILV – .47 = 15.82 Allow me to provide some perspective. On December 5th the S&P 500 index hit an intraday high of 2079 and a closing high of 2075. That was 7 trading session in the past, which may be a long time if you are trading on the minute bars, but in the grander scheme of things it was just a few days ago. The downturn has been fast and sharp, as downturns are want to be. This downturn has lopped about 90 points off the S&P, or about a 4.3%; which does not qualify as a correction and certainly not a crash, but it does catch your attention.

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Financial Review

Floors and Ceilings

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-17-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 263 = 16,380 SPX + 24 = 1886 NAS + 41 = 4258 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.20% OIL + .27 = 82.97 GOLD – .70 = 1239.20 SILV – .10 = 17.37 The markets were down for the week, even with the bounce today. For the week, the Dow and the S&P each dropped about 1%; the Dow was down 164 points on the week, and the S&P was down 20 points. The S&P is now down for 4 consecutive weeks. Let’s take a look at the charts. Earlier in the week I talked about support and resistance. Someone mentioned to me that they weren’t quite clear on the concept. So, here is a good way to look at these topics. Support is the floor and resistance is the ceiling. Think of a chart as a staircase under construction. The stairs are being built, hopefully higher and higher, and to prop up the stairs, you have to have a structure, or floors and ceilings. When you break through the ceiling to a new higher level, that ceiling then becomes the floor for the next level up. In other words, resistance becomes support. If the staircase of price falls, the last floor will catch you, or provide support. Then to go higher yet again, you will have to punch through that ceiling, or resistance, again. So, let’s look …

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Financial Review

Wednesday, June 04, 2014 – An Airtight Defense

An Airtight Defense by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 15 = 16,737 SPX + 3 = 1927 (record close) NAS + 17 = 4251 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.60% OIL – .27 = 102.39 GOLD – 1.30 = 1244.60 SILV – .01 = 18.90   Eight times a year the Federal Reserve gathers economic updates from the 12 districts and publishes the information about two weeks before its FOMC meetings. The data is published in a beige folder, and that is why it is called the Beige Book, although it might actually refer to the writing style. Anyway, economic activity expanded all across the country, with most districts reporting moderate or modest growth. Consumer spending expanded across almost all districts. Tourism was another bright spot and manufacturing activity expanded across the country. Home sales were described as “mixed across the country” even as home prices continue to rise. Labor markets were described as steady. Inflation was tame, with a slight exception for higher food prices in some areas.   In other words, when the Fed meets in a couple of weeks, there won’t be any big changes in monetary policy.   The Institute for Supply Management said its services index rose to 56.3%, its highest level since August, from 55.2% in April. That’s the number and they’re sticking with it.   The US trade deficit grew to $47 billion in April, up from $44 billion in March. Exports slowed in April, down slightly to $193 billion. Imports, meanwhile, …

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Financial Review

Monday, May 20, 2014 – Protected Species

Protected Species by Sinclair Noe DOW – 137 = 16,374 SPX -12 = 1872 NAS – 28 = 4096 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.51% OIL + .87 = 102.98 GOLD + 1.70 = 1295.30 SILV + .05 = 19.49 Today is Tuesday and that means that General Motors has announced another recall; this time 2.6 million more cars. Last week, GM recalled 3 million vehicles. So far this year, GM has announced 29 recalls affecting more than 15 million cars globally. The list of recalled vehicles is long. It’s easier to list the vehicles that haven’t been recalled; they have recalled 58 versions of Chevrolet and GMC pickups.   Last week the Dow hit a record high; since then it has been floundering. For the fourth straight session, the Nasdaq Composite has posted more 52-week lows than 52-week highs; 55 lows versus 38 highs. The Russell 2000 Index of small and mid-cap stocks hit a high on March 4th and since then it has dropped almost 10%.   Meanwhile, interest rates have been moving steadily lower despite winding down of large scale asset purchases under the Fed’s quantitative easing, and the talk about raising interest rates at some point down the road. With yields on the 10-yr Treasury note dipping down around 2.5%, that means somebody is buying Treasuries, but if not the Fed, then who?   Well, it’s certainly not Russia. Putin sold off more than $100 billion in Treasuries in March; he was probably expecting Treasury …

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Tuesday, March 18, 2014 – Food and Oil

Food and Oil by Sinclair Noe DOW + 88 = 16,336SPX + 13 = 1872NAS + 53 = 433310 YR YLD – .02 = 2.68%OIL + 1.62 = 99.70GOLD – 12.00 = 1356.50SILV – .38 = 20.92 Let’s start with some economic news. The National Association of Home Builders housing market index increased to 47 in March, up from 46 in February. A reading below 50 means more builders view conditions as poor rather than good. Fewer homes are being started in early 2014 than at the end of 2013. Housing starts came in just slightly below economists’ expectations of 910,000 at 907,000. Separately, a quarterly survey by the Business Roundtable found US chief executive officers somewhat more positive about the economy, including plans for hiring and capital spending over the next six months; they expect gross domestic product to advance 2.4% this year. The forecast is a slight upgrade from an expectation of 2.2% in the previous survey but still less than robust. The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in February, matching the increase in January. According to the Labor Department report, the increase was mainly due to higher prices for food. Energy prices decreased 0.5%. Over the last 12 months, the CPI is up 1.1%. Costs for meats, poultry, fish, dairy and eggs drove the gains. Most notably, beef and veal prices surged. Prices for beef saw their biggest monthly change in February since November 2003; that was when fears of mad-cow disease …

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Thursday, September 12, 2013 – Going Interstellar

Going Interstellar by Sinclair Noe DOW – 25 = 15,300SPX – 5 = 1683NAS – 9 = 371510 YR YLD – .01 = 2.91%OIL + .02 = 108.62GOLD – 44.80 = 1322.00 SILV– 1.48 = 21.84 The war hasn’t started…, yet. The peace talks are underway in Geneva between Secretary of State Kerry and his Russian counterpart Lavrov. In a news conference ahead of the Geneva talks, Foreign Minister Lavrov said the resolution of the chemical weapons issue in Syria would make any military strike by the United States unnecessary. The UN has confirmed it has received documents from Syria on joining the Chemical Weapons Convention, a key step in the Russian plan. Syria’s president said it would submit arms data one month after signing, but Mr Kerry has rejected that time-frame. Even before the talks, Russian President Vlad Putin weighed in with an op-ed in the New York Times arguing that a military strike risked “spreading the conflict far beyond Syria’s borders” and would violate international law, undermining postwar stability. Putin says poison gas was used in Syria but not by Assad; he also didn’t say who sold the poison gas to Syria; he talks about peace and democracy; and he finishes the editorial by saying “We are all different, but when we ask for the Lord’s blessings, we must not forget that God created us equal.” It’s all quite bizarre, to have Putin lecturing the US on democracy and morality and God. The good news is that the …

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Friday, September 06, 2013 – Fed Policy Creates Inequality

Fed Policy Creates Inequality by Sinclair Noe DOW – 14 = 14,922SPX + .09 = 1655NAS + 1 = 366010 YR YLD – .04 = 2.93%OIL+ 1.86 = 110.23GOLD + 21.10 = 1389.80SILV + .63 = 23.94 The war hasn’t started …, yet. This morning we got the big monthly jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 169,000 jobs last month falling short of the 175,000 to 180,000 Wall Street had expected. Not only did hiring miss expectations last month, but the job count for June and July was revised to show 74,000 fewer positions added than previously reported. While the unemployment rate fell a tenth of a percentage point to 7.3 percent, its lowest level since December 2008, the decline reflected a drop in the share of working-age Americans who either have a job or are looking for one. That participation measure reached its lowest point since August 1978, a further sign of underlying economic weakness. The rate for men touched a record low. U-6, a measure of underemployment that includes people who want a job but who have given up searching and those working part time because they cannot find full-time jobs fell three tenths of a percentage point to a 4-1/2-year low of 13.7 percent. The private sector accounted for the bulk of the job gains last month, but government payrolls increased 17,000 as local governments hired teachers for the new school year. Factory employment rebounded after falling in July. Construction payrolls were flat as both residential and …

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Thursday, September 05, 2013 – Mustering Support

Mustering Support by Sinclair Noe DOW + 6 = 14,937SPX + 2 = 1655NAS + 9 = 365810 YR YLD + .08 = 2.98%OIL + 1.23 = 108.46GOLD – 23.90 = 1368.70SILV – .25 = 23.31 The war hasn’t started, yet. President Obama is in St. Petersburg Russia for the G-20 summit, he received a cordial but cool greeting from Russian President Vlad Putin, however Putin had harsh words for Secretary of State John Kerry, calling him flat out a “liar”, referring to his testimony regarding Syria, a close ally of Russia.The United States has given up trying to work with the U.N. Security Council on Syria, accusing Russia of holding the council hostage. Russia, backed by China, has used its veto power three times to block council resolutions condemning Assad’s government and threatening it with sanctions.  Yesterday, a Senate panel authorized military action in a “limited and specified manner”. A full vote is expected next week. Syria is dominating a summit with an official agenda focused on economic growth, monetary policy and global banking and tax rules. Obama began meeting with other leaders of the Group of 20 nations, trying to persuade allies to give the US a measure of political cover even if they withhold military support. Obama has already met with Shinzo Abe of Japan, Francois Hollande of France – who may be the only US ally taking part in a strike against Syria, and also a meeting with Dilma Rousseff of Brazil. Brazil won’t be part …

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Tuesday, September 03, 2013 – Welcome to September

Welcome to September by Sinclair Noe DOW + 23 = 14,833SPX + 6 = 1639NAS + 22 = 361210 YR YLD + .10 = 2.85%OIL + .89 = 108.54GOLD + 15.70 = 1413.20SILV + .75 = 24.38 Well, we still haven’t started the war, yet. Congressional leaders from both sides of the aisle lined up in support of military intervention. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee opened a hearing and grilled Secretaries Kerry and Hagel. Tomorrow, Kerry and Hagel are scheduled to appear before the House Foreign Affairs Committee. The debate is shifting away from “Did Assad use chemical weapons?” to “What should be done about it?” Clarity of objectives seems to be a work in progress. Maybe all the talk will eventually consider the possible consequences of a military attack on Syria. Is it really possible to bomb a country and avoid deeper involvement? So far, the politicians are trying to work it out in a logical progression; if A, then B. That’s not always how it happens in war. Logic gets thrown out the window. At this time of crisis, it is worth remembering another time, 30 years ago in October, 1983 when US warships bombarded Lebanon, the country located next to Syria. Within weeks, the US Marine barracks in Beirut was blown up by a massive truck bomb that killed 241 American servicemen: 220 Marines, 18 sailors and three soldiers. The truck driver/suicide bomber was an Iranian national whose truck contained explosives that were the equivalent of 21,000 …

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Monday, June 17, 2013 – Preaching, Practicing, and Doing

Preaching, Practicing, and Doing by Sinclair Noe DOW + 109 = 15,179SPX + 12 = 1639NAS + 28 = 345210 YR YLD + .05 = 2.17%OIL + .07 = 97.92GOLD – 6.80 = 1385.70SILV – .24 = 21.94 President Obama is in Northern Ireland today, part of a three-day European tour that includes a G-8 summit meeting. Maybe we could call this the “Practice what I preach, not what I practice Tour”. Obama kicked off the tour with a speech in Belfast to celebrate Northern Ireland’s peace process; later he’ll talk with Euro leaders, including Russian President Putin about lifting a European arms embargo to arm Syrian rebels. The G-8 summit generally deals with economic issues, and tops on the list will be tax evasion. The Brits, lead by David Cameron and George Osborne will pressure for a comprehensive deal to include developing countries while preventing developed countries from trying to water down proposals. The two big ideas include having the beneficial ownership of offshore accounts made public and then having the G-8 countries commit to a global agreement on exchange of tax information that developing countries can join. The concern for poorer countries is that the G8 will deliver a “gold standard” for itself but offer a less satisfactory agreement for poor countries, which lose three times as much in tax evasion as they gain from aid. The Syrian conflict might actually be a positive for pushing through a deal on tax havens. It is unlikely there will be an …

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