Financial Review

Groovin

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-29-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSS&P record. GDP slumps. BOJ passes and preps for helicopter money. Eurobanks graded on a curve. Earnings good for tech and bad for oil. This ABInBev-SABMiller Bud’s for you. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-29-2016

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Financial Review

Stormy Weather

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-23-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-23-2015 DOW + 157 = 17,646 SPX + 22 = 2075 NAS + 111 = 5031 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.08% OIL – .65 = 44.73 GOLD – 1.90 = 1165.00 SILV – .03 = 15.91   After Thursday’s closing bell Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet all reported very strong third quarter earnings, and these companies are big enough to lift the entire market; today they added $80 billion in market cap. Amazon and Alphabet hit all-time highs, and Microsoft moved to its highest levels since 2000. Toss in a little central bank easy money and you’ve got one of the best two day rallies in a long time. The S&P 500 gained 2.1% for the week; its fourth straight weekly gain; moving into positive territory year to date. For the week, the Dow rose 2.5 percent and the Nasdaq gained 3 percent. Oil capped its biggest weekly decline since August as expanding U.S. crude stockpiles exacerbated a global glut, and the dollar moved higher, especially against the euro.   China’s central bank cut interest rates today for the sixth time in less than a year (down 25 basis points to 4.35 percent) , and it again lowered the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves. Monetary policy easing in the world’s second-largest economy is at its most aggressive since the 2008/09 financial crisis. The People’s …

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Financial Review

Do Computers Dream of Algorithmic Capitulation?

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-28-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-28-2015 DOW – 11 = 16,643 SPX + 1 = 1988 NAS + 15 = 4828 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.19% OIL + 2.71 = 45.27 GOLD + 8.30 = 1134.80 SILV + .08 = 14.70   The week roared in like a lion and left like a lamb. For the week, the Dow gained 1.1 percent, the S&P rose 0.9 percent and the Nasdaq added 2.6 percent. Go figure. Panicked selling on Monday and Tuesday gave way to a rush to buy on Wednesday and Thursday.  And for many investors, it was just too much. Equity funds saw $29.5 billion head for the exits, the largest weekly outflow on record. On Tuesday, investors pulled out $19 billion, the biggest single day for outflows in the past 8 years.  Some traders would call that “capitulation”, a sign of a bottom in the markets.   The chaos of this week’s markets appeared to hit smaller investors especially hard, leaving yet another dent in their stock market confidence. The Monday flash crash resulted in smaller investors being locked out of their online accounts. Strange glitches appeared. Exchanges spit out the wrong prices for widely held funds. For example, the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF dropped 33% in 15 minutes, then shot right back up 30 minutes later, while the stocks tracked by the ETF never fell that far. The QQQ, …

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Financial Review

Discretionary Reading

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-19-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-19-2015 DOW – 162 = 17,348 SPX – 17 = 2079 NAS – 40 = 5019 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.13% OIL – 2.02 = 40.60 GOLD + 16.60 = 1135.10 SILV + .44 = 15.41   A new CPI report this morning shows inflation remains muted. The consumer price index, a measure of prices at the retail level, rose 0.1% in July to mark the smallest increase in three months. Yet the cost of housing, the largest expense for most Americans, continued to rise, up 0.4% last month, reflecting the biggest gain in more than eight years. And housing expenses have climbed 3.1% in the past 12 months, the largest annual increase since 2008. The prices of most other consumer goods were little changed in July. Food prices climbed 0.2% while energy prices rose a smaller 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, so-called core consumer prices also advanced 0.1% in July. Aside from shelter, prices for clothes and medical care also rose.   Even though energy prices were up slightly in July, that might not last; eventually the price at the pump for gasoline should reflect the price of oil, which has now dropped to a 6 year low of $40.60 per barrel. Based upon historical pricing for oil and gas, we should be paying about $2.00 to $2.10 a gallon at the pump. Gas prices …

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Financial Review

Buckle Up

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-17-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 128 = 17,849 SPX – 6 = 2074 NAS + 7 = 4937 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.06% OIL – .42 = 43.46 GOLD – 5.70 = 1149.60 SILV – .10 = 15.63   The FOMC will wrap up its two-day meeting on interest rate policy tomorrow. The key question: will the Fed give a hint about raising interest rates? IMF Director Christine Lagarde says even if the Fed is able to manage expectations about an interest rate hike, “the likely volatility in financial markets could give rise to potential stability risks.”   ECB President Mario Draghi says, “Most indicators suggest a sustained (eurozone) recovery is taking hold.”  Draghi is urging governments to use the brighter outlook to advance reforms that would improve the region’s long-term growth prospects. Draghi claims, “Confidence among firms and consumers is rising. Growth forecasts have been revised upwards. And bank lending is improving on both the demand and supply sides.”   Draghi sounds a little overly optimistic. A couple of weeks of bond buying have not changed the overall economies of the Eurozone. Unemployment is still rampant in Spain and Italy and Greece and Portugal and several other countries. No doubt QE is increasing liquidity in the sovereign debt markets; the private banking system are surely pleased with cheap money policy, but it hasn’t changed the jobs picture, it hasn’t resolved …

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Financial Review

We’ll Know It When We See It

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-10-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS    Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 332 = 17,662 SPX – 35 = 2044 NAS – 82 = 4859 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.13% OIL – 1.71 = 48.29 GOLD – 5.40 = 1162.50 SILV – .11 = 15.72   Yesterday marked the 6 year anniversary of the bull market. Today is the 15th anniversary of the Nasdaq‘s all-time high. The Nasdaq has pulled in after briefly moving above the 5,000 level last week. The Nasdaq had been on a nice little run, so, for now support looks to be a long way away. Today the S&P 500 dropped below the 50 day moving average at 2061; that should have been an area of strong support.   Job openings in the United States rose 2.4% to 5 million in January and stood at a 14-year high. The Labor Department reports the number of people hired fell slightly to 5 million. So-called separations – layoffs, people fired, workers who quit – dipped to 4.82 million from 4.90 million.   The National Federation of Independent Business‘s small-business optimism index edged up to 98.0 in February, from 97.9 in January. Both readings are down from 100.4 in December. Although small-business owners remain upbeat, a growing percentage reports difficulty in finding workers with the right labor qualifications. By one measure, the skills shortage is the worst since 2006, but most business owners remain reluctant …

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Financial Review

How Low Did We Go

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 138 = 17,995 SPX +8 = 2079 NAS + 15 = 4942 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.20% OIL – 26 = 50.00 GOLD – 1.80 = 1167.90 SILV – .20 = 15.83   “How Low Can Stocks Go?” That was the headline in the Wall Street Journal 6 years ago. The Dow was still slogging through 4 straight weeks of losses to close at 6547. The S&P 500 was at a 12 year low of 676. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 1268.   Not many people called it at the time. A few did. John Bogle called it 2 weeks early. Barack Obama called it 5 days early. Mark Haines called it one day late. Of course, after all four tires go flat you might not make the prediction that there will be a fifth flat tire. Nobody was really confident about a bottom until about the end of the year. The current bull market is the fourth-longest on record; it’s also the fourth strongest. When will the bull market end? No idea. I could call the end of the bull market every day, and one day I would be right but that would be a waste off time for all of us.   For now, we have a nice bounce from the sell-off on Friday. Friday we learned the economy added 295,000 jobs last …

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Financial Review

Friday Wrap

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-2-01-23-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 20:25 — 9.3MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 141 = 17,672 SPX – 11 = 2051 NAS + 7 = 4757 10 YR YLD – .08 = 1.82% OIL – .95 = 45.36 GOLD – 8.00 = 1295.10 SILV – .02 = 18.40 For the week, the Dow rose 0.9 percent, the S&P gained 1.6 percent and the Nasdaq added 2.7 percent. The ECB announced plans yesterday to expand asset purchases by €60B per month until at least September 2016. ECB President Mario Draghi says the new stimulus plan “should strengthen demand, increase capacity utilization and support money and credit growth.” Well, it will make somebody rich, but the benefits to the broader Euro economy are still very much up in the air. Bonds in the region rallied, with the yields on 10-year notes of Germany, Italy, Spain and France falling to all-time lows. Stocks in the region on track for their best week since 2011 but the euro currency has dropped below $1.12. Greece’s leftist Syriza party leads the opinion polls heading into an election on Sunday. The ECB’s debt-purchasing program will not include Greece, at least not until July, and only then if a continuing review of the country’s bailout program is successfully completed. The basic bond buying plan wasn’t kind to Greece, even with the exclusion built in. The way, the ECB put together their QE scheme, rather than purchase government bonds …

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Financial Review

ECB QE

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-22-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 259 = 17,813 SPX + 31 = 2063 NAS + 82 = 4750 10 YR YLD + .04 = 1.90% OIL – 1.24 = 46.54 GOLD + 9.20 = 1303.10 SILV + .20 = 18.41 The European Central Bank has launched a quantitative easing program, which together with existing programs, will pump €60 billion per month into the Eurozone economies through the purchase of public and private securities, mainly government bonds. The QE program will run through September 2016 with a total price tag of €1 trillion (or $1.3 trillion dollars). So, it’s a big money printing, QE party for the Eurozone, except for Greece. The central bank effectively shut Greece out of the bond buying until July, and only then if Greece passes a review of its current bailout program. That program is heavy on debt reduction and austerity. The country’s existing program of financial support expires at the end of February. The government will run out of money by June without further aid. Greece holds elections on Sunday. The Syriza party is expected to win the election. Syriza would like to default on existing debt and scrap the current bailout program; essentially challenging the status quo of fiscal austerity policy. What happens if Syriza wins the election on Sunday? Well, they will probably claim that fiscal austerity has contributed to the despair and poverty of …

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Financial Review

Finally, Holograms

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-21-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 39 = 17,554 SPX + 9 = 2032 NAS + 12 = 4667 10 YR YLD + .05 = 1.85% OIL + .93 = 47.40 GOLD – 1.30 = 1293.90 SILV + .14 = 18.21 Gold moved above $1300 an ounce today. When was the last time you saw that? Last August. For the past 3 years, gold has been shellacked, but it is now testing an important level of resistance, and it coincides with the European Central Bank’s anticipated Quantitative Easing plan, which should be revealed on Thursday. Today we learned that an ECB executive board has called for bond purchases of roughly €50 billion per month over the next 12 months. The final number and details could change after the full board weighs in on the plan on Thursday. And the devil will be in details, and one of the most important is whether the ECB will let Greece play in their QE games. The Bank of Japan held off expanding its stimulus program today, even as they cut their core inflation forecast to 1% from 1.7%. Two Bank of England policy makers dropped calls for higher interest rates. Elsewhere, the battle against inflation intensified as the Bank of Canada unexpectedly cut interest rates for the first time since 2009, saying the oil price shock will drag down inflation. The Bank of Canada is lowering …

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